Thursday Night Football

Indianapolis at Jacksonville
By Brad Young

Indianapolis continues its postseason push with Thursday’s road game against AFC South rival Jacksonville. The Colts are the hottest team in football right now and have the inside track on a wild-card slot, while the Jaguars are playing out the string in a disappointing season.

“Indianapolis can lock up the AFC’s top wild-card spot with a victory in this spot,” said Brobury Sports head bookmaker Eddie Franks. “The sharp early action agrees that this should give the Colts plenty of motivation to blowout the overmatched Jaguars.”

Caesars Palace installed Indianapolis as a 6½-point road ‘chalk’ over Jacksonville, with the total set at 44. NFL Network will provide coverage of Thursday Night Football beginning at 8:15 p.m. ET from Jacksonville Stadium.

“If the line stays under a touchdown, we see a lot of value with Indianapolis,” stated Franks. “Against a healthy Colts defense, I don’t know where the Jaguars come up with the points to stay in the game.”

Indianapolis (10-4 straight up, 5-8 against the spread) is riding a seven-game SU winning streak (3-4 ATS) after upending Detroit last weekend as a 17-point home favorite, 31-21. The combined 52 points went ‘over’ the 44 ½-point closing total, ending a string of three straight ‘under’ outings.

The Colts concluded the contest with advantages in first downs (28-18), rushing yards (106-90), passing yards (315-233) and time of possession (32:41-27:19). Quarterback Peyton Manning completed 28-of-37 passes for 318 yards with a touchdown, while Dominic Rhodes paced the ground game with 20 carries for 86 yards and two scores.

Jacksonville (5-9 SU, 4-10 ATS) was mired in a four-game SU and ATS losing skid before beating Green Bay last weekend as a three-point home underdog, 20-16. The combined 36 points failed to topple the 46-point closing total, enabling the ‘under’ to cash the third consecutive contest.

The Jaguars rallied to victory by outscoring the Packers in the fourth quarter, 13-3. Signal caller David Garrard was 21-of-33 passing for 238 yards with two touchdowns, while Maurice Jones-Drew had 12 carries for 48 yards with a score. Wideout Dennis Northcutt enjoyed a solid effort by catching five passes for 127 yards and a touchdown.

These two AFC South rivals meet twice a year, with Jacksonville beating Indianapolis back on September 21 as a 4 ½-point road underdog, 23-21. The combined 44 points eclipsed the 41½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 3-1 the last four games in this series. The Jaguars have gone 3-1 ATS the previous four games in this series.

“Jacksonville did beat Indianapolis earlier this year, but these are two very different teams now,” noted Franks. “Both have been terrible this season ATS, but at least the Colts are a respectable 3-3-1 ATS on the road while the Jaguars are just 1-6 ATS at home.”

Indianapolis wide receiver Pierre Garcon (personal), linebacker Tyjuan Hagler (knee), running back Joseph Addai (shoulder), safety Bob Sanders (knee), defensive tackle Keyunta Dawson (hamstring) and defensive tackle Erik Foster (neck) are ‘probable’ versus the Jaguars. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison (knee) and linebacker Gary Brackett (leg) are expected to miss this matchup.

Jacksonville has nobody listed as ‘probable,’ ‘questionable’ or ‘doubtful’ against the Colts.

Thursday’s weather for Jacksonville, Florida calls for partly cloudy skies, with a high of 81 degrees and a low of 57.

vegasinsider.com

Colts uncertain whether Addai, Sanders will play
By ASSOCIATED PRESS

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) -The Indianapolis Colts could get Bob Sanders and Joseph Addai back in the lineup Thursday night.

Then again, maybe not.

Coach Tony Dungy told reporters Tuesday he thought both would play against Jacksonville and both were listed as full participants in Tuesday's practice.

But after practice, team president Bill Polian offered a different assessment.

''Joseph is questionable, and Bob, I think, is, too,'' Polian told NFL Network. ''I would say Bob's chances are probably 51-49 of playing.''

Addai sat out Sunday's game, a 31-21 victory over Detroit, with a right shoulder injury. Sanders has missed four of the last five games with swelling in his right knee, the same knee on which he had surgery while missing five games earlier this season with a high ankle sprain.

Sanders, the 2007 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, has missed nine games in 2008.

The Colts will be without middle linebacker Gary Brackett, the defensive captain. Brackett has missed the last two games after cracking a bone in his lower right leg. Dungy initially said Brackett would miss at least two games, but the short week will force him to miss another game.

Defensive end Dwight Freeney, selected to his fourth Pro Bowl on Tuesday, was one of four players who did not practice. Freeney typically sits out at least one practice each week to rest.

Also out were receiver Marvin Harrison (knee), who needs five catches to become the third player in league history with 1,100; backup running back Chad Simpson (ankle); and Brackett. Simpson scored his first career touchdown Sunday after spraining his ankle a week earlier against Cincinnati.

If the Colts win Thursday night, they would clinch the top wild-card spot in the AFC. Oddsmakers have them set as 6-point road favorites.

Indianapolis (10-4, 6-8 ATS) at Jacksonville (5-9, 4-10 ATS)

The red-hot Colts go after their eighth straight victory when they travel to Alltel Stadium for an AFC South contest against the struggling Jaguars.

Indianapolis dropped Detroit 31-21 Sunday, but failed to cash as an overwhelming 16½-point chalk, falling to 3-4 ATS during its seven-game SU surge. QB Peyton Manning (28 of 37, 318 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) was typically steady, helping the Colts outgain the Lions by nearly 100 yards (421-323), and TE Dallas Clark (12 catches, 142 yards, 1 TD) and WR Reggie Wayne (7 catches, 104 yards) both had big days. Still, the Colts blew a 21-10 halftime lead and scored the final 10 points to break a 21-21 tie.

Jacksonville, in the rare role of home underdog, beat Green Bay 20-16 catching 2½ points on Sunday, halting a four-game SU and ATS freefall that essentially ended the team’s season. QB David Garrard (21 of 33, 238 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) had one of his best games in weeks as he led a turnover-free offense. WR Dennis Northcutt (5 catches, 127 yards, 1 TD) had a strong day, and RB Maurice Jones-Drew had two fourth-quarter TDs (1 receiving, 1 rushing) to clinch the win.

Jacksonville got a last-second 51-yard field goal from Josh Scobee to upset the Colts 23-21 as a four-point road underdog back in Week 3, and the Jaguars have now cashed in three of the last four meetings in this rivalry (2-2 SU). The road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings and the underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight clashes.

The Colts and the Jaguars both have middling offenses this season, with Indy averaging 23.1 points (17th) and 327.3 yards per game (18th), and Jacksonville just a shade behind in yards per game at 318.0 (20th) while averaging 19.4 ppg (24th). Both squads are in the top half of the league in total defense, with Indianapolis giving up 317.2 ypg (11th) and Jacksonville yielding 319.1 ypg (15th). Indy is allowing 19.6 ppg (10th), and Jacksonville is giving up 22.1 ppg (19th).

The Colts are on ATS slides of 1-4 in division play, 1-5 as a favorite, 2-5-1 as a road chalk against AFC South foes and 4-10 in December, but they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six Thursday contests. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are on pointspread declines of 1-4 overall, 1-6 at home, 0-5 after a SU win, 0-5 after an ATS win and 1-5 in the AFC South, but they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a home ‘dog.

The over has hit in the Colts’ last four division games and four of their last six on the road, and the over for Jacksonville is on runs of 7-2 as an underdog, 6-2 as a home pup, 9-3 in December and 11-4-2 against winning teams. Also, the over is 5-2 in the last seven clashes between these teams at Alltel Stadium.

Finally, the over is 18-5-2 in non-Sunday NFL games this year.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Gametimepicks.com

NFL Research Report
By Indiancowboy

Colts vs. Jaguars

How much worse can it get for the Jaguars? This team first loses Tennessee at home which is understandable by 10, then to the Vikings by a score of 12-30 at home, then goes on the road on MNF and loses to Houston by a score of 17-30, gets beat by the Bears by a score of 10-23 on the road and redeemed themselves a bit by defeating the Packers at home by a score of 20-16 in the previous week. More than 70% favor the Colts here to get it done on the road in a conference clash between these two teams that do not have good blood between them. Remember, the Jags beat this team 23-21 on the road earlier this year so this is actually a revenge game for Indianapolis as one of the few wins the Jags have this year was against Indy on the road. Heck, the season started great for the Jags with the onset of that game and then the wheels fell off. Peyton and the Colts are playing great right now and they have revenge. However, how do you wager on a Colts team that is getting 70% of the love on the only football game on television on a weeknight? I lean slightly on the Jazz and the under but I’ll take a pass and wait for the weekend for some much better plays imo as I believe this side/total are both very sharp lines.

What bettors need to know: Indianapolis at Jacksonville
By T.O. WHENHAM

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+6, 44)

Line movement

The line opened at 6.5 and is now widely available at +6. That movement is somewhat surprising given the action. More than 80 percent of bets have been made on the Colts. That means that this line movement is contrary to what we would normally expect. That could be an indicator of smart money or the books could have a reason why they are comfortable encouraging action on the Colts.

Total

The total opened at 45 points and is now widely available at 44. Jacksonville has gone under in its last three games and four of the last five. Indianapolis went over against Detroit last week but had stayed under the number in the three previous weeks.

Weather

It's going to be a pleasant December night. Temperature at kickoff should be in the high 60's with little wind and almost no chance of precipitation.

Hot and not

Both teams are coming off wins, but that's where similarities end. The Colts are the hottest team in the league with seven consecutive wins thoroughly washing away the memory of a 3-4 start. Jacksonville is far less impressive. Before the last win it had lost four in a row and six its last seven. The Colts are 5-2 on the road and 4-2-1 ATS. Jacksonville has been just 2-5 at home and 1-6 ATS.

Matchup history

One of the few bright spots of the season for Jacksonville this year has been a September win over Indianapolis. Overall, Jacksonville has three wins in nine games against the Colts over the last five seasons. The Jags are a more impressive 5-3-1 ATS over that time. The games have gone over five times including the last two.

Short rest

Both teams have had limited time to recover from Sunday's schedule. That makes the ability to recover an important betting consideration. Of the two teams, Indy has more experience with short rest. It played on Thanksgiving in 2004 and 2007 and had a game rescheduled in 2001. The Colts won all three games and the offense was very effective, averaging almost 36 points per game. Over that same period, Jacksonville played just once on short rest, in 2001, and lost straight up and ATS.

What's on the line

Jacksonville has absolutely nothing besides the pride on the line. Indianapolis has far more to play for. A win here will secure its seventh consecutive playoff berth. The Colts could improve their position beyond the fifth seed, allowing them to rest their team as needed next week. The race for the MVP is lame this year, meaning that Peyton Manning and his reputation have as good a chance as anyone of taking it home. A big performance here could potentially cap it.

Simple scheduling

Not to take away from Indy's recent success, but no team has been treated better by the schedule makers. The Colts' last four wins have come against deeply troubled teams, San Diego, Cleveland, Cincinnati and Detroit.

Jacksonville is at home with that group. The puffball tour doesn't play into this game much, but it does make you wonder how the team will respond when they have to actually play a real team.

Injuries

Both teams have been hit hard by injuries throughout the year and this week is no exception. The Colts have eight players on the IR and one more on the PUP list. The two biggest questions are Joseph Addai and Bob Sanders. Both players were fully involved in practice Tuesday and Tony Dungy says he expects both to return to action Thursday. President Bill Polian is less optimistic. He says that Addai is questionable and Sanders' chances of playing are 51-49.

Jacksonville is in worse shape. It has 15 players on the IR including the incredibly-fragile veteran RB Fred Taylor and WR Matt Jones is out with a suspension. That leaves the Jags with no players that are questionable for this game.

Trends of note

The Colts are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six Thursday night games. They are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six as favorites, and 1-4 ATS versus the AFC South.

The Jaguars are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 in week 16, 1-4 ATS in their last five games, and 1-6 ATS in their last six versus the AFC South.

The over is 4-0 in the Colts last four vs. the AFC South. The under is 4-1 when the Colts are favored by between 3.5 and 10.

The under is 5-0 the last five times the Jags have been the underdog, and 4-0-1 in the last five against the AFC.