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New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

Oddsmakers currently have the Patriots listed as 3-point favorites versus the Jets, while the game's total is sitting at 42.

The Jets routed St. Louis 47-3 as a 9.5-point favorite in Week 10. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (43.5).

Thomas Jones rushed for 149 yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries for the Jets, while Brett Favre passed for 167 yards with a touchdown in the win.

The Patriots defeated Buffalo 20-10 as a 3.5-point favorite in Week 10. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (41).

BenJarvus Green-Ellis rushed for 105 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries for New England, while Matt Cassel passed for 234 yards with a TD run in the win.

Current streak:
New York has won 3 straight games.

Team records:
New York: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS
New England: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS

New York most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on turf are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the division are 4-6

New England most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on turf are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing within the division are 9-1

A few trends to consider:
NY Jets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
NY Jets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on the road against New England
NY Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road
New England is 11-1 SU in their last 12 games when playing NY Jets
New England is 18-2 SU in its last 20 games at home
New England is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games
New England is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets

Next up:
NY Jets at Tennessee, Sunday, November 23
New England at Miami, Sunday, November 23

NY JETS (6 - 3) at NEW ENGLAND (6 - 3)

Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 69-47 ATS (+17.3 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 77-54 ATS (+17.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 53-31 ATS (+18.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 4-2 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 5-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NY Jets at New England
NY Jets: 8-1 ATS Away 2nd half of the season
New England: 26-11 Under at home off BB Unders

 
Posted : November 12, 2008 11:35 am
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Posts: 318493
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Buffalo Bulls vs. Akron Zips

Oddsmakers currently have the Zips listed as 3-point favorites versus the Bulls, while the game's total is sitting at 59.

The Bulls finally beat the RedHawks with a 37-17 win at home last Tuesday night. It was the first time they've defeated their MAC rival in 11 meetings.

Buffalo covered the 8-point spread set by oddsmakers and the final score played over the 50.5-point total.

Akron took it to Toledo early and went on for a 47-30 win in Week 11. Akron covered the 6.5-point spread at home, and the 77 points sailed OVER the posted total of 55.

Current streak:
Buffalo has won 3 straight games.
Akron has won 2 straight games.

Team records:
Buffalo: 5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS
Akron: 5-4 SU, 6-2-1 ATS

Buffalo most recently:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on turf are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 1-9
When playing within the conference are 6-4

Akron most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on turf are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 2-8
When playing within the conference are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games
Buffalo is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Buffalo is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Akron
Akron is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Akron's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Akron's last 5 games
Akron is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

Next up:
Buffalo at Bowling Green, Friday, November 21
Akron at Ohio, Saturday, November 22

Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Miami Hurricanes

Oddsmakers currently have the Hurricanes listed as 4½-point favorites versus the Hokies, while the game's total is sitting at 43.

Virginia Tech improved to 6-3 with a 23-13 win over Maryland in Week 11. Virginia Tech covered the 3-point spread, while the 36 points went UNDER the posted total of 41.

Darren Evans ran for 253 yards off 32 carries with one touchdown in the win.

Jacory Harris threw a touchdown pass to Aldarius Johnson in overtime to give Miami a 24-17 win over Virginia in Week 10.

The Hurricanes covered the 1.5-point spread, while the final score played just under the day's posted total of 42.

Current streak:
Miami has won 4 straight games.

Team records:
Virginia Tech: 6-3 SU, 3-5 ATS
Miami: 6-3 SU, 5-3 ATS

Virginia Tech most recently:
When playing in November are 10-0
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing within the conference are 8-2

Miami most recently:
When playing in November are 3-7
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the conference are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
Virginia Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Miami
Virginia Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Virginia Tech's last 5 games on the road
Virginia Tech is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Virginia Tech
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Miami is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games at home
Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Virginia Tech

Next up:
Virginia Tech home to Duke, Saturday, November 22
Miami at Georgia Tech, Thursday, November 20

Wyoming Cowboys vs. UNLV Rebels

Oddsmakers currently have the Rebels listed as 7-point favorites versus the Cowboys, while the game's total is sitting at 46½.

Ward Dobbs' 24-yard interception return for a touchdown helped Wyoming beat Tennessee 13-7 in Week 11.

The Cowboys covered the 26.5-point spread, while the final score played UNDER the day's posted total of 41.

Mike Clausen threw for 203 yards and two touchdowns to lead UNLV over New Mexico 27-20 in Week 11. UNLV won that game as a 5.5-point underdog, while the game's 47 points fell just UNDER the posted total of 48.

Clausen finished 17-of-34 and Ryan Wolfe had 100 yards receiving in the win.

Current streak:
Wyoming has won 2 straight games.
UNLV has lost 5 straight games.

Team records:
Wyoming: 4-6 SU, 2-7 ATS
UNLV: 3-6 SU, 4-4-1 ATS

Wyoming most recently:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on turf are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the conference are 1-9

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Wyoming's last 5 games when playing UNLV
Wyoming is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing UNLV
Wyoming is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against UNLV
Wyoming is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of UNLV's last 5 games when playing Wyoming
UNLV is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Wyoming
UNLV is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Wyoming
UNLV is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Next up:
Wyoming home to Colorado State, Saturday, November 22
UNLV at San Diego State, Saturday, November 22

BUFFALO (5 - 4) at AKRON (5 - 4)

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-0 against the spread versus AKRON over the last 3 seasons
AKRON is 1-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

VIRGINIA TECH (6 - 3) at MIAMI (6 - 3)

Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA TECH is 69-47 ATS (+17.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
VIRGINIA TECH is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
VIRGINIA TECH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA TECH is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
VIRGINIA TECH is 2-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

WYOMING (4 - 6) at UNLV (4 - 6)

Top Trends for this game.
WYOMING is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
UNLV is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
UNLV is 2-0 against the spread versus WYOMING over the last 3 seasons
WYOMING is 2-0 straight up against UNLV over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Buffalo at Akron
Buffalo: 9-1 ATS off SU win
Akron: 1-6 ATS off conference win

Virginia Tech at Miami (FL)
Virginia Tech: 8-1 ATS in November
Miami: 0-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

Wyoming at UNLV
Wyoming: 11-2 Under off BB SU wins
UNLV: 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points

BUFFALO vs. AKRON
Buffalo is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games
Akron is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Akron is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo

VIRGINIA TECH vs. MIAMI
Virginia Tech is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
Virginia Tech is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Virginia Tech
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Virginia Tech

WYOMING vs. UNLV
Wyoming is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing UNLV
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Wyoming's last 5 games when playing UNLV
UNLV is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of UNLV's last 7 games

 
Posted : November 12, 2008 12:40 pm
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Posts: 318493
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Thursday's NFL Capsule

OPENING LINE - Patriots by 3.

RECORD VS. SPREAD - New York 5-4; New England 5-4.

SERIES RECORD - Patriots lead 49-48-1.

LAST MEETING - Patriots 19, Jets 10, Sept. 14, 2008.

LAST WEEK - Jets beat Rams 47-3; Patriots beat Bills 20-10.

JETS OFFENSE - OVERALL (14), RUSH (9), PASS (14)

JETS DEFENSE - OVERALL (10), RUSH (5), PASS (20)

PATRIOTS OFFENSE - OVERALL (15), RUSH (7), PASS (23)

PATRIOTS DEFENSE - OVERALL (12), RUSH (12), PASS (15)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Jets have scored 17 or fewer points in 11 of last 12 games against New England. But they lead AFC this season with 28.3 points per game. ... New England is 11-1 in those 12 games, losing only on Oct. 12, 2006 at home, 17-14. ... New York's Thomas Jones leads AFC with 750 yards rushing after running for 149 yards with three touchdowns Sunday. He rushed for 70 yards in first game against Patriots this season. ... Jets' 31 sacks are two more than they had all last season. Patriots have been sacked 30 times in their nine games after being sacked just 21 times in all 16 games in 2007. ... Brett Favre went 14-for-19 for 167 yards against St. Louis, all season lows, as Jets rushed for 206 yards. ... CB Ty Law signed this week with Jets and will face team he played with from 1995-2004. It's his second stint with New York. ... Jets have tied club record with four defensive touchdowns, three on interceptions and one on Calvin Pace's 50-yard fumble return against Rams. ... Patriots QB Matt Cassel made first career start against Jets in Week 2. He completed 16 of 23 passes for 165 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. ... Undrafted rookie BenJarvus Green-Ellis rushed for career-high 105 yards last Sunday. He also ran for touchdown for fourth straight game. ... WR Wes Welker will try to extend his NFL mark of starting a season with nine straight games with at least six receptions. ... Randy Moss has 817 career receptions and needs three to pass Steve Largent for 16th in NFL history.

 
Posted : November 12, 2008 4:42 pm
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Jets at Patriots
By Brad Young

Brad Young unloads with a guaranteed play concerning the total for the New York-New England contest Thursday night. Pay only when it wins to start your pro football weekend on the positive side!

The battle for AFC East supremacy takes center stage Thursday night when the New York Jets travel to Foxboro to take on New England. This division is the tightest in football right now, with the Jets and Patriots atop the heap at 6-3 while Buffalo and Miami sport identical 5-4 ledgers.

This is a huge game in Week 11 that will give the winning team an inside track to capture the divisional crown. Both teams enter this matchup with just a few days of rest, but does one team need a victory more than the other?

“I think this game is key for the Jets for a couple of reasons,” stated Brobury Sports head bookmaker Eddie Franks. “Not only is New York looking to bounce back after losing to the Patriots in Week 2 at Giants Stadium, but more importantly is that the Jets have everything riding on this year.

“New York must take advantage of its limited time with Brett Favre, and road games against divisional rivals are must wins if the team is to have any chance of making the playoffs. As for the Pats, everyone’s already planning to blame this season on Matt Cassel.”

Caesars Palace installed New England as a 3½-point home ‘chalk’ over New York, with the total set at 41 ½. NFL Network will provide coverage of Thursday Night Football beginning at 8:15 p.m. ET. The line has remained unchanged throughout the week, but there has been some movement on the total.

“I was taken back to see so many players continue their bombardment on the ‘over’ throughout the week,” said Franks. “I think many players out there only see a high-profile team in the Patriots at home against a high-profile QB in Favre.

“The assumption now (at least from what the action tells us) is that they are somehow primed to start racking up the points in Foxboro, I’m just not sure where that comes from. I’m inclined to believe that a lot of the action we’re seeing is a result of the hype being generated in these big media markets.”

New York (6-3 straight up, 5-4 against the spread) has won its last three games SU and back-to-back outings ATS after routing St. Louis last weekend as a nine-point home favorite, 47-3. The combined 50 points eclipsed the 44-point closing total, enabling the ‘over’ to cash the third consecutive contest.

The Jets dominated the Rams in first downs (24-11), rushing yards (206-80), passing yards (167-120), turnovers forced (5-0) and time of possession (37:03-22:57). Favre completed 14-of-19 passes for 167 yards with a touchdown, while Thomas Jones paced the ground game with 26 carries for 149 yards and three scores.

New England (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) improved to 3-1 SU and ATS its last four games after doubling-up Buffalo last weekend as a 3½-point home ‘chalk,’ 20-10. The combined 30 points failed to topple the 41 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 4-0-1 the previous five outings.

The Patriots finished the contest with advantages over their AFC East rival in first downs (24-10), rushing yards (144-60), passing yards (226-108), turnovers forced (2-1) and time of possession (37:40-22:20). Cassel was 23-of-34 passing for 234 yards, while running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis stepped up with 26 carries for 105 yards and a score.

“No doubt there will be pressure on both quarterbacks Thursday night, but for different reasons,” said Franks. “Jets fans are looking at Favre to bring them to the promise land since he’s a proven leader on the field who can put the pieces together.

“Cassel on the other hand is somehow expected to fill the massive hole left by Brady’s injury. At the end of the day, he’ll either end up the scapegoat for a disappointing season or the dynasty’s newest savior. I think he’s feeling this more than anyone right now, and it will follow him through every drop back and pass this season.”

New England is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS the previous four meetings with New York after prevailing September 14 as a one-point road favorite, 19-10. The combined 29 points went ‘under’ the 37-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the second game in a row between these teams.

“The Patriots may have won the last four games, but three of those contests were between two completely different teams that we’ll see Thursday night,” noted Franks. “The slate is clean in my opinion, and whichever team wants it more will walk away with the victory.”

New York place kicker Mike Nugent (thigh) is ‘probable’ against the Patriots, while tight end Bubba Franks (hip) and linebacker David Harris (groin) are expected to miss this matchup.

New England defensive end Ty Warren (groin), offensive lineman Stephen Neal (knee) and linebacker Eric Alexander (hamstring) are ‘questionable’ versus the Jets, while cornerback Lewis Sanders (hamstring), cornerback Terence Wheatley (wrist), running back LaMont Jordan (calf) and running back Sammy Morris (knee) are ‘doubtful.’

Thursday’s forecast for Foxboro, Massachusetts is calling for a 70 percent chance of rain with winds out of the southeast at 10 mph. The high is expected to reach 51 degrees with a low of 45.

vegasinsider.com.

 
Posted : November 12, 2008 9:35 pm
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What bettors need to know: Jets at Patriots
By T.O. WHENHAM

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3.5, 42.5)

Line Movement

The public had their work cut out for them in this one - the Patriots and Brett Favre are both things the public likes to blindly bet on. It appears the lure of Favre is stronger here - six out of 10 bets have been placed on the Jets. The line has responded as expected. It opened at -4, but has moved to -3.5 in the face of the action. Nothing fishy going on here so far.

Weather

The temperature should be around 45 degrees by game time, and rain will likely be falling through the afternoon and into the evening. The forecast calls for winds between 10 to 15 miles per hour. The quarterbacks could have a fun night.

Total

The line opened at 40, and has moved up to 42 or 42.5 depending on where you look. That movement is in the face of solid public preference of the over, so again nothing is happening here other than what you would expect.

History

The Jets will need to overcome a trends and recent history to come out on top Thursday. New York has won just once in the last 10 meetings, though that win did come in Foxborough. New England is 7-2-1 ATS over that stretch. In Week 2 the Jets provided Matt Cassel the first complete game win of his career. The Pats won 19-10 as 1-point favorites. The busiest guy in that game was Pats' kicker Stephen Gostkowski with four made field goals.

The history between these two teams is rich, and it extends well beyond the record. Jets' coach Eric Mangini is a former Bill Belichick disciple who has not pleased his former boss in recent years. Both guys would take greater than normal pleasure in a win here. The Jets have signed Ty Law and will have the former Patriot in the lineup this week. He will have rust to knock off, but his presence could be a factor in this game.

Favre versus the Patriots

Despite the fact that Favre has been in the league for about 100 years, he’s only played New England three times during the Bill Belichick era. Two years ago at Lambeau Field Favre went 5-of-15 for 73 yards as the Packers were humiliated 35-0 by the Patriots. Matt Cassel actually made a brief appearance in that game, though only to take a knee to end the suffering.

Four years earlier the results were more positive for Favre. The Packers travelled to Foxborough and emerged as victors by the score of 28-10. New England was favored by six.

Schedule Weakness

These two teams are tied atop their division, but they share something else in common as well - they have both played surprisingly weak schedules. The Jets are the only team currently in a playoff position that the Patriots have played. New York has played just one more - the Cardinals. Mangini’s team has played Kansas City, St. Louis, Oakland and Cincinnati. The Jets are just a game against Detroit away from a full house of futility. The Pats haven't played Oakland or Cincinnati, but they did get to feast on San Francisco.
The Jets are the bigger mirage. They have looked good going 4-1 over their last five, but the teams they have played over that stretch are 11-34, and five of those 11 wins belong to Buffalo.

New England Injury Woes

Tom Brady's absence has obviously been the most impactful, but it is far from the only major one. Most recently the team lost linebacker Adalius Thomas for the year to a suspected broken arm. He joins a pretty impressive collection of players on the sidelines for the year. Starting running back Laurence Maroney is out with shoulder problems and safety Rodney Harrison blew out his quad.
In the shorter term, the team is dealing with life without key contributors like Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren, and Stephen Neal.

The biggest problems, though, are at running back. Things there have gotten almost comical. After Maroney went down, the responsibility fell to LaMont Jordan. A calf injury to Jordan landed Sammy Morris the gig, but after Morris hurt his knee the Pats turned to rookie BenJarvus Green-Ellis. This guy is straight out of a Disney movie. He's an undrafted rookie from an obscure school who started the season on the practice roster, but now has TDs in his last four games.

 
Posted : November 12, 2008 10:18 pm
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What bettors need to know: Virginia Tech at Miami
By CHRIS MARAKOVITZ

Line Moves

There was minimal line movement here through the week with the number fluctuating between 4 and 4.5 while the over/under has remained steady at 43.5.

Head to Head

Miami leads the series 16-9 but Tech has won four of the last five, including the last two in Miami.

Thursday night lights

Miami and Virginia Tech are two of the better Thursday night football schools in the nation. The Canes are 12-1 all-time on Thursday nights and the Hokies are 15-3. The teams have never faced each other on Thursday night.

The stakes

Miami and Virginia Tech are engaged in a dog fight for the ACC Coastal Division title along with North Carolina. Of the three, only Virginia Tech controls its destiny, but Miami would take a big step forward with a win on Thursday.

Tech comes in with a normal week’s rest after beating Maryland last Thursday while Miami has had 12 days to prepare off a bye last week.

Against the spread

Tech is 3-5 ATS this season while Miami is 5-3. The Canes have covered three in a row.

Breakout performance

Virginia Tech had its most dominant performance of the year in last Thursday’s 23-13 win over the Terps. The Hokies dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

Offensively they put up 400 total yards, their highest total this year, with RB Darren Evans breaking the school single-game record with 253 yards rushing on 32 carries. Although the Terps’ defensive front is admittedly soft, it was the best rushing performance for Tech since 2006.

The Hokies defense also had its best performance of the year, holding Maryland to 228 total yards. The Terps ground game was completely shut down, finishing up with -12 yards in rushing offense.

Young hurricanes growing up fast

One of the youngest teams in the nation, Miami has hit its stride, coming in on a four- game winning streak. Four of the team’s top six scorers are true freshmen and the other two are sophomores. Several key players on defense are true freshman as well.

While the Canes have built up some momentum, they are still looking for a signature win. Sure they’ve beaten Wake Forest at home and Virginia on the road in their last two outings, but they faltered earlier against top-notch teams like Florida, North Carolina, and Florida State. A win against Virginia Tech would be a big boost for a Miami program that seems poised for a return to national prominence, if not this year then next.

Virginia tech QB situation

The Hokies reaped the benefits of having an experienced backup when Sean Glennon stepped in last week for his 25th career start in relief of injured starter Tyrod Taylor. Glennon performed well, completing 14 of 20 passes for 127 yards and a TD with no turnovers.

Glennon seems likely to see the field again this week as Taylor is currently listed as questionable.

Two-headed QB monster at Miami

Miami seems to be defying the old maxim that if you have two QBs you don’t have one good one. Both redshirt freshman Robert Marve and true freshman Jacory Harris have made strong contributions in the recent winning streak.

Harris led comebacks against Duke and Virginia and Marve made the big plays against Wake Forest.

One advantage of Harris over the starter Marve comes in the turnover department. Marve has thrown 10 interceptions while Harris has thrown only three in 113 attempts.

Regardless of how Marve performs early on, look for Harris to make an appearance somewhere around the fourth possession.

Special teams struggles at Tech

Considering Frank Beamer’s track record as a special teams guru, it’s surprising it’s been a sore spot for the Hokies in 2008.

Special teams blunders played key roles in losses to East Carolina and Boston College and the unit was the only weak spot once again last week against Maryland.

Miami punt returners Travis Benjamin and Thearon Collier are more than capable of cashing in against a Tech punt coverage unit that is ranked last in the nation, allowing an average of 17.8 yards per return and having surrendered three TDs returns already this season.

Red zone dichotomy

Miami is night and day on offense and defense in the red zone. Offensively they are first in the ACC with 31 scores and 21 TDs in 33 trips inside the 20. Defensively they are last in the nation, having allowed 25 scores and 21 TDs in 26 opponent red zone appearances.

Inexperienced wideouts

While both teams are dominated by freshmen at wide receiver, the position has been a weak spot for Virginia Tech in particular. True freshmen Jarrett Boykin, Dyrell Roberts and Danny Coale have been shoddy route runners and have dropped numerous catchable balls.

 
Posted : November 12, 2008 10:20 pm
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Degenerate special: Thursday's other football games
By MATT SEVERANCE

Game: Buffalo at Akron

Line: Oddsmakers have set the Zips as 2.5-point favorites. The total is listed at 58.5.

All-time series: Akron has won eight of the nine meetings, but Buffalo won 26-10 at home last year.

Where the rubber hits the road: Think Akron’s players and fans will be fired up tonight? It’s the final game at the 68-year-old Rubber Bowl, with the biggest crowd of the season expected to send it off.

Construction of the 30,000-seat InfoCision Stadium is under way on the Akron campus and will be ready for next season.

The winner between the Zips and Bulls will have a one-game lead in the East Division of the Mid-American Conference with two games remaining. Only those two control their destinies in the division.

''For 20-year-olds, it's not going to be a huge distraction,'' Akron coach J.D. Brookhart said of the finale. ''We have stressed the importance of this game.

Buffalo is 0-4 all-time against the Zips in the Rubber Bowl and has been outscored 101-40.

By the numbers: In his past three games, Zips running back Dennis Kennedy has 612 rushing yards (7.3 yards per carry) and six touchdowns. Kennedy had not rushed for more than 89 yards in a game before putting up totals of 182, 277 and 153.

Buffalo ranks seventh in the country in turnover margin, earning 1.22 turnovers per game and is +11. The offense has turned the ball over only nine times this season (fifth in the nation). Akron has only lost four fumbles, which is ninth in the nation.

The Zips have won two games in a row for the first time this season after knocking off Eastern Michigan and Toledo. The offense has 1,005 yards in those two wins.

Bulls senior QB Drew Willy has been on fire since last midseason, throwing for 28 touchdowns with only four interceptions in his last 15 games. He needs just 39 more passing yards to be the school’s all-time leader.

Buffalo has won three games in a row; it has won four straight since 1996, and a victory Thursday would give the school its most since moving from I-AA in 1999.

Game: Wyoming at UNLV

Line: Oddsmakers have set the Rebels as 7-point favorites. The total is listed at 46.

All-time series: Not many conference matchups are as even as this one. Wyoming and UNLV are 8-8 against each other with both schools 4-4 at home and on the road. Wyoming is on a four-game winning streak against the Rebels.

What’s on the line: With both teams 4-6 with two games to go, the winner will have a potential bowl to play for in its season finale. If one of these teams were to finish 6-6, it likely would have to hope a BCS bowl takes Utah to get into the postseason.

"I'm pretty sure we're Utah's biggest fans right now," Wyoming junior Mike Neuhaus said.

Wyoming is on a two-game winning streak, beating San Diego two weeks ago and then pulling off a surprising 13-7 win at Tennessee last week, holding the Vols to only 219 yards. While a win at Tennessee doesn’t mean much these days, don’t forget that Wyoming had a five-game losing streak in which it was outscored 207-30 this season.

“Probably the most amazing statistic about it was that in the Phil Fulmer era, Tennessee was 38-2 against non-conference opponents with the losses being to Miami (Fla.) and Notre Dame,” Wyoming coach Joe Glenn said his program’s historic victory.

UNLV ended a five-game losing streak (and 12-game MWC losing streak) with a W over New Mexico last time out, and the Rebels’ four wins this season match their win total from the previous two seasons. Redshirt freshman Mike Clausen made his first career start at quarterback against New Mexico and threw for 203 yards and two touchdowns. He is expected to start again Thursday.

By the numbers: Wyoming is very much a run-first team, as Devin Moore leads the Mountain West in rushing with 1,132 yards, while Wynel Seldon is eighth with 483. The Cowboys rank eighth in the MWC in passing, averaging only 104.9 yards per game.

The Rebels are 104th out of 119 teams nationally in total defense (431.5 yards per game) and 105th in scoring defense (33.5 points per game). Junior linebacker Jason Beauchamp is second in the nation in tackles at 11.7 per game.

Check out this stat line for Wyoming LB Ward Dobbs in the win over Tennessee: The senior had 13 tackles, four tackles for a loss, a sack and an interception return for a TD. He was named MWC Defensive Player of the Week. Dobbs leads UW with 76 tackles.

The Rebels are 7-3 all-time on Thursdays, but it’s their first Thursday game at Sam Boyd Stadium since the 2000 Las Vegas Bowl.

 
Posted : November 12, 2008 10:21 pm
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Thursday Night Football: Virginia Tech at Miami
by Matt Severance

The bunched-up ACC Coastal Division might be a tad clearer after Thursday night when two of the three co-leaders, Virginia Tech (6-3, 3-2) and Miami (6-3, 3-2), face off in South Florida.

The Hokies, five-point underdogs at BetEd, probably won't know their starting quarterback until game time for the second consecutive Thursday. Heading into last Thursday's game against Maryland, both of Tech's top two quarterbacks, Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor, were questionable with ankle injuries.

Taylor, the running threat, didn't play, but Glennon, the pocket passer, did and played well, completing 70 percent of his passes for 127 yards and a touchdown. More important in the ball-control Virginia Tech offense, he did not throw an interception.

You know Frank Beamer wants Miami to prepare for both Hokie quarterbacks on Thursday, so he will only say that Glennon is healthy but that Taylor (who has been practicing) will be a game-time decision.

"We'll see (if Taylor's ready) when we warm up (Thursday)," Beamer said.

No matter who gets the ball under center, he no doubt will be handing off frequently to running back Darren Evans, who bulldozed through the Terrapins' defense for a school-record 253 yards in the 23-13 upset. Evans had six runs of 15 yards or more, including bursts of 50, 45 and 29 yards. The Hokies gained a season-high 400 yards on offense against Maryland. For the season, the Hokies don't have a receiver who has a touchdown catch, and they only average 120.8 yards in the air.

Plus, that Tech rush defense showed up big time. The Terps went into last week's game averaging nearly 167 rushing yards per contest but finished with minus-12 yards on 18 attempts against Virginia Tech. There was not a single carry that went longer than seven yards for Maryland.

Miami knows all too well about the Hokie rush defense. In last year's 44-14 loss to the Hokies, the Canes rushed the ball 29 times for minus-2 yards. However, that team didn't have current leading rusher Craig Cooper (injured) and was much less talented than the 2008 Canes, who have won four games in a row. However, UM may well be without its most talented offensive lineman in Jason Fox, who has a sprained ankle.

"You've got to be able to run the football," Miami coach Randy Shannon said. "This late in the season, if you can't run the football, you won't be able to make it."

Miami will continue to rotate quarterbacks Robert Marve and Jacory Harris, even though it has been Harris who has been rescuing the offense of late and who has won ACC Rookie of the Week honors three times already this season. On the year, Marve has thrown for 920 yards and seven scores, but he has also been picked off 10 times. Harris, on the other hand, has passed for 698 yards, with seven touchdowns against just three interceptions.

The Hokies have won four of the past five meetings. The Canes are 12-1 all-time on Thursday nights and the Hokies are 15-3, but this is the teams' first meeting on Thursday. Virginia Tech is 14-1 in November over the last four seasons. The Hokies are 13-1 against ACC teams during that span, with the only loss coming to Miami in 2005. Despite losing its past two ACC road games, to Boston College and Florida State, the Hokies are 16-3 in league road games since joining the ACC in 2004.

This is Virginia Tech's last road game, so a victory probably would put it in the catbird seat for the ACC Coastal Division title since it beat co-leader North Carolina this season. Miami needs to win out and hope the Heels drop a game.

Docsports.com

 
Posted : November 12, 2008 10:32 pm
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Where the action is: Thursday's key line moves
By BLAKE EDWARDS

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

Line/Total: Line opened -3.5 flat, but with a bit of early action on the Jets we moved 10 cents to Jets +3.5 -120. Big move on the total going from 40.5 to 42.5. That’s a bit surprising because of the poor weather expected in this game.

Matchup of the Game: Jets fifth ranked rushing defense that gives up only 76.4 yards a game vs. Patriots seventh ranked rushing offense gaining 133 yards a game.

Key Injuries: Patriots have been ravaged with injuries yet they keep winning. They just lost one of their best defensive players for the year - LB Adalius Thomas.

Weather: Night game in Foxborough, MA. It’s going to be cold and 70 percent chance of showers.

Buffalo Bulls vs. Akron Zips

Line/Total: Game opened -3 and was quickly bet up to -3.5. We opened the total at 59 and no movement as of yet.

Key Injuries: No new injuries to report for either team.

Weather: 50 degrees and 50 percent chance of rain.

Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Miami Hurricanes

Line/Total: Miami opened -4 and we saw slight action on the favorite. After going to 4.5, we have seen some money come on the dog. We’re absolutely split on the game. Unless a sharp syndicate comes on a side, this line won’t move much. We opened the total 43, no significant action yet.

Matchup of the Game: Classic matchup of two quality defenses vs. two bad offenses. Both defenses rank in the top 20 in the nation while both offenses rank in the bottom 20. Expect a lot of three and outs with points being a premium.

Key Injuries: VTech QB Tyrod Talor missed last game and is listed questionable vs. Miami.

Weather: Forecast calls for warm Miami weather, but there is a 20 percent chance of scattered showers.

Wyoming Cowboys vs. UNLV Rebels

Line/Total: After the Cowboys huge upset win over Tennessee, Wyoming has seen significant action this week vs. UNLV. We opened this game UNLV -9 and it’s been bet down to -7.

Matchup of the Game: Wyoming’s 34th ranked rushing offense vs. UNLV 114th ranked rushing defense.

Key Injuries: Wyoming OL Travis Hillen is day-to-day.

Weather: Should be in the low 70s on a beautiful Las Vegas evening.

 
Posted : November 13, 2008 12:32 am
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Va. Tech at Miami
By Christian Alexander

Virginia Tech (6-3, 3-2 ACC) at Miami (6-3, 3-2 ACC)
Thursday, November 13
7:45 PM ESPN
Dolphin Stadium (Natural Grass)
Sports.com Line: Miami -4.5, O/U 43

This season has certainly been one of streaks for me on Thursday nights. I won my first three games, lost my next three, won the following four and now have lost two in a row for a 7-5 (58%) record.

Last week’s loss (TCU -2) was a tough one to stomach considering the Horned Frogs jumped out to a 10-0 lead and managed to hold that lead until just 48 seconds remained when the Utes scored a touchdown to win 13-10. The fact that TCU missed two very makeable field goals – 26 & 35 yards – in the fourth quarter only adds to the frustration.

Oh well, as fellow VegasInsider.com handicapper Brian Edwards likes to remind me, the only sure thing is the Florida Gators. That, of course, is a joke although Brian is feeling pretty confident about his Gators right about now. In fact, I heard he has already booked a suite at the Ritz-Carlton on South Beach for the BCS Championship game on January 8 in Miami.

But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. There is still plenty of Thursday night action left in this season and speaking of Miami – this Thursday we’re down in South Florida as Virginia Tech pays a visit to the University of Miami.

While neither the Hurricanes nor Hokies have a chance of being in the BCS Championship game, both teams have serious hopes of playing on that same field a week prior in the Orange Bowl when the ACC Champion will battle either an undefeated non BCS squad or the Big East champion.

Coach Randy Shannon was under some heat earlier in the year when his young squad stood at just 2-3 but since that point the Hurricanes have rattled off four straight wins, including three ACC victories and are now squarely in contention for the Coastal Division title. With just three contests left, the Canes need to win out and have North Carolina – who they are currently tied with atop the Coastal - lose once more to make it to the Championship game in Jacksonville.

Coach Frank Beamer knows all about winning the Coastal Division and the ACC title, having made the Championship game in two of the last three years, including winning it all in 2007. The Hokies’ road to Jacksonville is a bit clearer as they control their own destiny since Tech holds the tie-breaker over the Tar Heels if those two teams finish in a tie.

Either way, both teams know they must win this Thursday night to have any chance of making it to the ACC Championship and so you can expect an all out effort from both programs.

This will be the last home game of the year for Miami in its first season playing at Dolphin Stadium, home to the Miami Dolphins and Florida Marlins. While it doesn’t have the home-field advantage of the old Orange Bowl, Shannon and company should expect the loud and rowdy Canes fans to be out in full force for this game.

Usually the kiss of death for an offense, the Hurricanes currently have a pretty productive two-quarterback system in place with starter Robert Marve and backup Jacory Harris, the true freshman local product who is 57-of-113 passing with only three interceptions. Neither player will throw for a ton of yards but both can be productive through the air – usually to another true freshman, WR Aldrius Johnson - and both are a threat on the ground as well.

And the ground attack will be crucial in this game for both teams.

The quarterbacks along with RBs Graig Cooper and Javarris James (ankle) give Shannon a number of potent rushing weapons but they will be facing a stingy Virginia Tech run defense that is only surrendering 104 yards a game on the ground. James has been dealing with an ankle injury that caused him to miss some time in Miami’s recent win over Virginia but the coaching staff expects him to play Thursday.

As if flexing their defensive prowess to intimidate the Hurricanes, Virginia Tech proved last Thursday night just how dominant they can be in stopping the run. Virginia Tech’s defense held a Maryland offense that was averaging 167 rushing yards to staggeringly low minus 12 on the ground for the game. Terps RB Da'Rel Scott, who entered the game as the ACC's per game rushing leader, could only grind out 11 yards on 10 carries and will likely be having nightmares about Virginia Tech DTs Cordarrow Thompson and John Graves for weeks to come.

Unless Miami can handle Thompson and Graves as well as get some blockers on linebackers Cody Grimm and Brett Warren, it could be a struggle for the Hurricanes to generate offense and points.

Beamer knows all about struggling to generate offense and points as the Hokies have searched for an offensive identity for much of the season.

Of course, you wouldn’t know it by watching Virginia Tech last Thursday night. Behind redshirt freshman RB Darren Evans and his school-record 253 yards, the Hokies gained 400 total yards, its highest output since putting up 430 in the regular-season finale at Virginia last year.

However, just as Miami will have a challenge facing the Virginia Tech defense, the Hokies will likely find the sledding much tougher this Thursday night versus last week against the Terps. The Canes defense is giving up a meager 287 yards a game, with only 110 of that on the ground.

Virginia Tech QB Sean Glennon, who was splitting time with Tyrod Taylor earlier in the year until Taylor suffered an ankle injury, has a long history of making crucial mistakes but the good news for Beamer is his QB has been efficient lately. Glennon, who has completed 23 of 36 pass attempts for 260 yards and no interceptions since taking over full time for the injured Taylor, also has the experience advantage as this will be the 26th start in his Virginia Tech career.

Strangely enough, the one area of concern for Beamer and his staff all season long is something that for years and years has been a strength for this program, basically defining what is known as “Beamer Ball”: Special teams play.

However, this season the opposition has been beating Virginia Tech at their own game and the Hokies special teams have been anything but.

A blocked punt by ECU in the season opening loss to the Pirates, a punt return for touchdown by Boston College in the Hokies' loss to the Eagles and a costly roughing-the-kicker penalty in the FSU loss are three major mistakes among many that surely have Beamer scratching his head.

However, the Virginia Tech coach can’t be too disappointed. After all, even with the uncharacteristic mistakes and the injuries, his team is bowl-eligible for the 16th straight season and has the inside track to return to the ACC Championship game. If that is disappointment, I’m sure there are plenty of coaches who will line up to take it.

Recently, Virginia Tech has owned the Hurricanes, winning the last two and four of the last five. Miami's only win in the last five years surprisingly came in Blacksburg – a very tough place to win – when they defeated the Hokies 27-7 in 2005.

VegasInsider.com

 
Posted : November 13, 2008 8:35 am
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N.Y. Jets (6-3, 5-4 ATS) at New England (6-3, 5-4 ATS)

Brett Favre and the Jets go after their fourth straight win when they travel to Gillette Stadium to face the hated Patriots in a battle for first place in the AFC East.

New York drubbed St. Louis 47-3 on Sunday as a 9½-point home favorite for its third straight win (2-1 ATS). Favre (14 of 19, 167 yards, 1 TD) didn’t do much, but he didn’t have to, as the Rams turned the ball over five times which led to 27 points for the Jets, who built up a whopping 40-0 halftime lead.

RB Thomas Jones (26 carries, 149 yards, 3 TDs) led a rushing game that churned out 206 of New York’s 373 total yards. The Jets, who didn’t commit a turnover, allowed just 200 total yards and won the time of possession battle by 15 minutes (37:03-22:57).

New England topped Buffalo 20-10 as a 3½-point home chalk Sunday, cashing in back-to-back games for the first time this season. QB Matt Cassel (22 of 32, 234 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) lost a fumble for the Pats’ only turnover, but otherwise had a clean game as New England was never really threatened, finishing with 370 total yards while allowing a stifling 168 to Buffalo.

Against the Bills, unknown rookie RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (26 carries, 105 yards, 1 TD) helped the Patriots roll up 168 yards on the ground, and like New York against the Rams, New England finished with a 15-minute edge in time of possession.

New England is on a 9-1 SU run (7-2-1 ATS) in the last 10 clashes in this rivalry, including a 19-10 road victory as a one-point road chalk in September. The favorite is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 head-to-head battles, but the road team has gone 20-7-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings.

The Jets are on ATS runs of 5-2 on the highway, 5-1 in November, 4-1 against winning teams and 4-1 in the division. Meanwhile, the Patriots sport ATS streaks of 16-7 against winning teams and 35-16-1 in the AFC East, but they are on pointspread slides of 2-8 at home, 2-9 after a SU win and 1-6 after a spread-cover.

The under for New York is on stretches of 4-1-1 in roadies, 8-2-1 against AFC foes, 6-1-1 against winning teams and 5-1-1 inside the division. For New England, the under runs include 4-0-1 overall, 8-1-2 at home, 9-1-2 against the AFC and 4-1 in division play. Finally, four of the last five series meetings between these rivals at Gillette Stadium have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND and UNDER

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Buffalo (5-4, 6-3 ATS) at Akron (5-4, 6-3 ATS)

Buffalo heads to Ohio in search of its fourth straight victory when it takes on Akron in a Mid-American Conference contest, with both teams coming off weekday games.

The Bulls drilled Miami (Ohio) 37-17 on Nov. 4 as an 8½-point home chalk to earn its third consecutive SU win (2-1 ATS). Time of possession was nearly even in the contest, but Buffalo racked up 476 total yards – including 216 on the ground – while the Redhawks finished with 383 yards. The Bulls also won the turnover battle 2-0, recovering a pair of fumbles.

The Zips played a day later and dropped Toledo 47-30 as a 6½-point home favorite, winning and cashing for the second straight week. Akron gained 233 of its 458 total yards on the ground, with RB Dennis Kennedy going off for 154 yards and a score, and the Zips also blocked a punt for TD and ran back a botched Toledo extra point for two points.

Buffalo is on a 3-0 ATS run (1-2 SU) in this rivalry, rolling 26-10 last year at home as a one-point pup.

The Bulls are on ATS streaks of 6-0 on the highway, 5-0 after a SU win and 8-3 in conference tilts. The Zips are on an 8-3-1 ATS tear overall, but they are on a 4-10 pointspread skid coming off a SU victory.

The over has cashed in four straight games for both these teams. The over is also 4-1 in Buffalo’s last five conference games, and the over for Akron is on stretches of 6-0 in MAC play, 5-1 at home and 5-1 against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Virginia Tech (6-3, 3-5 ATS) at Miami, Fla. (6-3, 5-3 ATS)

Miami looks to keep its winning surge going when it takes on Virginia Tech in an ACC clash at the Orange Bowl.

The Hurricanes, who had a bye last weekend, rallied past Virginia 24-17 in overtime on Nov. 1 as a one-point road pup for their fourth consecutive win (3-1 ATS). QB Jacory Harris (12 of 21, 160 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) rallied the ‘Canes by throwing a tying TD pass in the final minute of the fourth quarter, then hitting Aldarius Johnson with a 9-yard TD pass to open overtime. Miami lost the turnover battle 3-1 but it made that one turnover count, stripping the ball from Virginia tailback Cedrick Peerman on the Cavaliers’ first offensive play of overtime to end the game.

The Hokies beat Maryland 23-13 laying three points at home last Thursday, snapping a two-game SU skid and a three-game ATS nosedive. Virginia Tech racked up 400 total yards, including a whopping 273 on the ground behind RB Darren Evans (32 carries, 254 yards, 1 TD), and the Hokies allowed just 229 yards. That led to a 15-minute advantage in time of possession.

These teams feature two of the better defenses in the country, with Miami allowing 283.1 ypg (12th) and Va-Tech yielding 295.9 (19th).

Virginia Tech has won and cashed in the last two meetings between these schools and is on a 6-1 ATS run in the last seven contests. The Hokies are also 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes in Miami, and the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven matchups.

The Hurricanes are on ATS runs of 4-1 after a SU win and 5-2 against winning teams, but they are in pointspread ruts of 1-11 coming off a bye, 5-16-1 at home, 8-22 after a spread-cover and 7-15-1 in ACC contests. On the flip side, the Hokies sport positive ATS streaks of 19-7 on the highway, 25-9 inside the ACC, 10-1 in November and 13-4 on Thursdays.

For Miami, the under is on streaks of 26-9 at home, 8-2 on Thursday and 21-7 in November, and Va-Tech has stayed under the total in eight consecutive Thursday night outings. In addition, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: VIRGINIA TECH and UNDER


Wyoming (4-6, 2-7 ATS) at UNLV (4-6, 6-4 ATS)

Wyoming, coming off one of the more stunning victories of this season, travels to Sin City for a Mountain West Conference affair with UNLV.

The Cowboys went into Knoxville and knocked off lame-duck coach Philip Fulmer and Tennessee 13-7 as an overwhelming 27-point road ‘dog. It was the second straight win and cover for the Pokes, and the SU winner has now cashed in eight straight lined games for Wyoming. The Cowboys outgained Tennessee 266-219 and got a 24-yard Ward Dobbs INT return for a second-quarter TD that proved to be the winning score.

The Rebels upset New Mexico 27-20 catching six points at home to halt a five-game SU slide (2-3 ATS). UNLV was outgained 370-258, but the Rebels got a TD off a blocked punt in the fourth quarter for their final score, and they also halted a second-quarter New Mexico drive with Quinton Porter’s 77-yard INT return, which set up a field goal.

Wyoming has won the last four games in this rivalry, including last year’s 29-24 victory at home, but the two teams have split the cash, with UNLV covering the past two years. In addition, the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven head-to-head clashes and the underdog is 4-2 ATS in the past six.

Despite getting its first two spread-covers of the season the last two weeks, the Cowboys are still on a bevy of pointspread declines, including 6-20-1 overall, 1-8 on the highway and 4-23-1 in MWC games. But they are on positive ATS runs of 4-1 in Thursday games and 23-9 following a spread-cover. The Rebels, meanwhile, are on ATS plunges of 1-4 in November, 5-15-1 after a SU win, 8-23 against losing teams and 7-20 after a spread-cover.

For Wyoming, the over is on stretches of 15-5 in November and 7-3 against losing teams, and the over for UNLV is on a 6-1 overall streak and is 4-1 in the Rebels’ last five home contests. Lastly, the total has gone high in each of the last 10 meetings between these schools.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Gametimepicks.com

 
Posted : November 13, 2008 8:38 am
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Tips and Trends

New York Jets at New England Patriots

Jets: New York head coach Eric Mangini continues to try to figure out a way to get an advantage on his mentor, New England's Bill Belichick. The Jets signed former Patriots CB Ty Law on Monday in an effort to gain an edge in what is a critical game for the top two teams in the AFC East. “This is a huge game,” New York RB Thomas Jones said. “It’s a divisional rival, first of all. It has a lot of implications as far as who’s going to be in sole possession of first place in the division, which leads into other things as the season goes along. It’s a really big game for us and we really look forward to it.”

Jets are 5-1 SU in their last games overall..
The UNDER is 8-2-1 in New York's last 11 games vs. AFC.

Key Injuries - WR Jerricho Cotchery (shoulder) is probable.
K Mike Nugent (thigh) is questionable.
S Eric Smith (head) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17 (UNDER - Total Play of the Day)

Patriots (-3.5, O/U 42): New England head coach Bill Belichick did a masterful job of shutting down Brett Favre in the first meeting between the teams earlier this season, limiting him to 18-of-26 passing for 181 yards with one touchdown and an interception. The difference this time around could be the number of injuries suffered by the Pats since then on defense, most notably S Rodney Harrison and LB Adalius Thomas, who are both out for the season. “Any time you lose a player, especially an impact player like (Thomas), it hurts,” New England CB Ellis Hobbs said. “But he’ll tell you himself: the machine can’t stop. It has to keep on rolling.”

Patriots are 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
The UNDER is 8-1-2 in New England's last 11 home games.

Key Injuries - RB Sammy Morris (knee) is questionable.
RB LaMont Jordan (calf) is doubtful.
LB Adalius Thomas (arm) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

Jets (6-3) @ Patriots (6-3) New England won first meeting 19-10 back in Week 2 in Swamp (+1.5), using 21-yard edge in field position to keep Jets bottled up. Seven of eight Jet drives started 80+ yards from paydirt. New York won last three games, scoring 33.7 ppg, scoring nine TDs on its last 28 drives- they've won field position battle in six of seven games since the Week 2 loss. Patriots won last three home games by 34-7-10 points- they've been called for four penalties in last three games. Under is 4-1 in last five New England games, 1-5-1 in last seven Jet games.

 
Posted : November 13, 2008 8:50 am
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NCAAF RESEARCH REPORT
By Indiancowboy

Buffalo vs. Akron

I swear, I am sick of the MAC Conference during the weekdays. The public is split on this game. The line opened up at -1.5 for Akron and quickly jumped up to -3 for the home team. Buffalo is 1-3 on the road and Akron is 1-3 at home. Buffalo beat this team 26-10 at home last year so this is a revenge game for Akron. Buffalo comes off 3 straight wins and 3 straight overs while Akron comes off a 17 point win over Toledo and 4 straight overs. I know the total is set high but the last 3 times these 2 teams have hooked up, the game has actually gone under. But, is taking the under here the strongest play, by no means. But, it would make for a nice public fade here and it is a conference game, so I would not be surprised to see such an under go down.

Wyoming vs. UNLV

How about Wyoming defeating Tennessee outright on the road. Having said that, Tennessee is on the worst year of their franchise right now so that does not mean anything. Most of the public is on UNLV and the line has gone down a few points. Is Wyoming that good or is Tennessee that bad? I'd like to think that Tennessee is that bad but that is coming from a Tide fan. UNLV does have revenge in this game as they defeated Wyoming 29-24 last year but UNLV actually covered that game as 10.5 dogs. I'm a big fan of UNLV in Omar Clayton and that was my free pick this weekend and I think UNLV is the better team here and likely covers despite the line movement going the other way. This team has revenge, the better quarterback and frankly has better splits against the other teams in the conference. Just a comp release for me, but I like UNLV overall to get it done as if the BYU game is any measure, UNLV lost to BYU by a touchdown on the road while Wyoming got beat by 44 points to BYU on the road. UNLV also lost to Air Force by a point at home and Wyoming lost by 20 points to Air Force at home...the list goes on and on so I will make UNLV a comp pick here for Thursday night.

 
Posted : November 13, 2008 11:07 am
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