Brandon Lang
15 Dime TCU
5 Dime Teaser Broncos and Over
FREE Maryland/Va Tech Under
Iron Horse
10* Thursday GOY
TCU
Youngstown Connection
TCU
Frank Patron
7500 Unit Lock
TCU Horned Frogs -1.5
Vegas Sports Experts
10* Take Cleveland (-3) over Denver (NFL Power Play)
Denver
• 1-7 ATS in all games this season
• 2-9 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons
• 0-12 ATS when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points
• 3-13 ATS when playing with 6 days or less of rest
10* Take TCU (-2) over Utah (NCAA Power Play)
TCU
• 9-0 ATS coming off two or more conference wins the last 3 seasons
• 7-1 ATS as a favorite this season
• 14-3 ATS when playing in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 years
10* Take Maryland (+3) over Virginia Tech (NCAA Power Play)
Virginia Tech
• 5-9 ATS as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons
• 0-2 ATS coming off a two game road trip
• 0-4 SU & ATS coming off a bye week
Drew Gordon..
Today's Games...
1. 100,000♦ Virginia Tech
2. 50,000♦ Browns
1. Virginia Tech- First things first, let's begin with the situational angles in this contest. I don't particularly like the way the Terrapins are coming into this game, off back-to-back home wins, including a piss-poor effort against NC State in their last one. They've been known to disappear completely on the road (31-0 loss at Virginia comes to mind), and now face a Virginia Tech team in desperate need of a win.
Speaking of situational angles, its hard to argue against the Hokies, who've lost two straight tough ACC games on the road, and now return home in a must-win redemption game. I just don't see Va. Tech losing a 3rd straight game, especially at home, where they are dominant defensively, allowing just 12 ppg on 292 yards of total offense this season! Look for the Hokies to come into this game highly focused and extremely motivated.
Next, we have to discuss injuries, because the public is completely overreacting to the Hokies QB situation. First of all, latest reports are Glennon is probable, which is music to my ears, because Tyrod Taylor isn't really a quarterback, and Glennon will keep the Terrapins defense honest with his arm. But on the chance that Glennon is out, QB Cory Holt is an adequate backup. Yes, he's only thrown a few passes in his college career, but he's a 5th year senior. In other words, he's intimately familiar with the system, and he proved his worth (somewhat) in limited action in very hostile territory last week at Florida State. Also, as a side note, Maryland RB Scott is listed as probable, so expect he'll play.
Finally, the one thing Va. Tech does really well at home besides defense, is run the football, averaging 203 rushing yards per game in Blacksburg. What people don't realize is this plays right into the weakness of this Terrapins stop-unit, which is allowing 153 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry on the road this season! With Glennon or Holt leading the huddle, and a solid run game mowing down a vulnerable Terrapins rush defense, look for the Hokies offense to perform just fine tonight at home.
Bottom line, this is a game the Hokies absolutely must win, and don't get too caught up in the QB situation, as they have an adequate backup and a solid run game to compliment him (a QB's best friend). In the end, its the Hokies nasty defense, and desperation to win that earn them the W in this one, as Maryland runs into a wall tonight at Blacksburg.
Take Virginia Tech over Maryland as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Browns- Let's make one thing clear, Brady Quinn has been groomed for this since day 1. He's being put in the absolute best position to win, with a talented offense, at home, against an extremely vulnerable Broncos defense. And enough about the short-week, as Quinn has had a YEAR to prep for this, and you best believe he'll be ready.
But for all the talk about Quinn, the true gamechanger in this contest will be RB Jamal Lewis, who has had his best games at home this season (except against the Ravens, which is understandable). Denver defense has been atrocious on the road, allowing a whopping 206 rushing yards per game this season, and football 101 teaches us, a young QBs best friend is a solid run game, and Quinn WILL have that tonight.
Not only that, but on the flip side, coach Crennel has this Browns defense playing well, allowing 20 ppg on 348 total yards this season. That's a big improvement from last season's debacle, and with the Broncos offense struggling, averaging just 13 ppg on 305 total yards last 3 games, the Browns stop-unit is poised for another strong effort tonight at home.
Finally, from a trend standpoint, there's no question you have to like the Browns, who are a sterling 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Broncos on the other hand, are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games, including ugly SUATS losses at Kanas City and at New England in their last two roadies!
Bottom line, Quinn won't be great, but he'll do just enough to compliment a strong run game led by Jamal Lewis against a porous Broncos defense. Denver was able to rely on its high-powered offense in the early going, but lately, its been anything but high-powered. In the end, look for the Browns to rally behind their new leader, while the Broncos flounder once again on the road!
Take the Browns over the Broncos in this Thursday night NFL match up.
Steve Budin
25 Dime
TCU
Jake Timlin
500* Cleveland Browns
In what I see as being a No Brainer take the Browns minus the points as they burry the Broncos tonight. Yes, even with the Browns switching to Brady Quinn given how bad the Broncos are right now I am more then happy to lay the points in Cleveland. You see for Denver, loser of 4 of their last 5 games, their lack of defense is killing them as the Broncos stop unit ranks near the bottom of every defensive category with their offense stuck in a black hole scoring less then 20 points in their last 5 games. No so for Cleveland as their defense has stepped up their game by allowing 17 or less points in 4 of their last 5 games while their offense has topped 20 point in 4 of their last 5 games. Meanwhile, the opposite trend numbers tell the whole story as Cleveland has been a huge money maker cashing in 17 of their last 24 games, including 9 of their last 10 games at home while Denver is an awful 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games. So backing the hotter of the two teams tonight is say lay the points on the Browns as they earn an impressive win against a down and out Denver team.
All Cleveland!
100* Houston Rockets
Take the Rockets minus the points as they rebound from their only loss on Tuesday win with a blowout tonight. After all given that Houston is clearly the better team tonight and one that was able to win the last 5 series meetings while covering the last 3 meetings Houston will be just fine on the road tonight. Meanwhile, for the 1-3 Trailblazers playing on back to back nights is going to be a killer. So backing the better team tonight I say lay the road points as Houston rebounds with an easy win.
All Houston!
LVTR
Maryland +3
Utah +2
Orlando -5
Free Play Orlando-Phily Under
Seabass:
50 TCU
50 VCU
30 Den/Cle over
100 (Steam) TCU/Utah under...message says buy it to 43 when line was 42.5 this morning; line has dropped some places already.
JOHN RYAN
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on TCU - AiS shows an 82% probability that TCU will win this game by 3 or more points. The biggest factor in this game will be the running games. Specifically, the lack of one for Utah and very strong one for TCU. TCU is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) when they allow 50 to 100 rushing yards since 1992. TCU will look to pound the running game between the tackles against a under sized LB corp. RB Joseph Turner is a powerful 226-pounder who leads the team in rushing and can churn out tough yards between the tackles. Then you add the option package that QB Dalton executes very well with correct and decisive reads. Utah's DT Newman weighs just 265 pounds and NT Shelby 245. These two will have to face a center in Schleueter who weighs 295, RG Montgomery who weighs 310 and LG Doley who checks in at 310. Moreover, Utah has two quick and athletic defensive ends, but they are nearly completely taken out of the game once the middle of the field is exposed by the TCU running attack. Keep track of running and passing plays for TCU. If they attain a better than 2 to 1 margin favoring run then they will be dominating the LOS and also TOp and most importantly the scoreboard. TCU is in a series of strong roles and I will not a few of them. TCU is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half over the last 3 seasons; 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after playing 3 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons; 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons.
Ai Simulator 5* graded play OVER VA Tech/Maryland - AiS shows a 79% probability that 43 or more points will be scored in this game. Maryland in a series of strong roles under HC Friedgen noting they are 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games; 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games after a 2 game home stand. Maryland is ranked 23rd entering this road tilt at V-tech. Maryland will be defending their top ranked position in the ACC Atlantic division. Both teams are coming off BYE weeks and that no doubt helps Maryland more than V-tech. ACC leading and 26th best nationally, Da'Rel Scott is on the mend after injuring his shoulder September 13th against California. he has obviously played injured all along and has been a strong leader and inspiration to this team. Certain to hear announcers proclaiming that as well tonight. V-tech is in worse shape though having both QB banged up significantly. Virginia Tech lost starter Tyrod Taylor and backup Sean Glennon in a 30-20 loss to then-No. 24 Florida State on Oct. 25, and it’s uncertain if either one will be able to play this week. This play is based on both of them being available. Take the OVER and consider an optional 2* Parlay with Maryland and the OVER. Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Maryland - AiS shows a 72% probability that Maryland will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. AiS also shows an 86% probability that Maryland will score 28 or more points. Note that this augments the TOTAL play and that Maryland is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Va Tech is just 9-34 ATS (-28.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992
ALSO
Ai Simulator 5* graded play Maryland
Cajun-Sports Executive- CFB
Thursday 8:00 PM EST - CBS-C
5 STAR SELECTION
UTAH +2 1/2 over TCU
Mountain West Conference supremacy is on the line Thursday night, as the 10th-ranked Utes host the 11th-ranked Horned Frogs in Salt Lake City.
TCU has just a single loss during 2008, a 35-10 setback at Oklahoma which was the top-ranked program in the nation at the time. Last weekend, TCU surrendered 14 points to UNLV in Las Vegas, matching the most points given up by the Frogs this year, but it made little difference as the visitors blew apart the Rebels in a 30-point decision.
As for Utah, they've managed to run the table thus far, including victories over BCS teams Michigan and Oregon State. The team's most challenging outing since slipping past the Beavers back in the first week of October, Utah managed to hold on versus New Mexico in Albuquerque last Saturday in a 13-10 final.
TCU quarterback Andy Dalton is the one that makes this offense run smoothly, converting better than 59 percent of his pass attempts for nine touchdowns and just two interceptions. The TCU rush defense is first in the country with a mere 39 ypg allowed. Add to that a pass defense that has surrendered just 175.6 ypg and the unit as a whole trails only USC in total defense.
The Utes will counter with QB Brian Johnson, who is averaging just over 200 ypg passing and has 14 touchdowns to show for his efforts, helping Utah to post 36 ppg. The defense is eighth in the nation with just 89.6 ypg allowed on the ground and is seventh in total defense, so it’s right behind the Horned Frogs.
While many are picking the Horned Frogs here, our Power Ratings indicate that the Utes are getting great line value here, as they should be favored by a TD. TCU is getting a lot of respect for their recent play, especially knocking BYU from the unbeaten ranks a few weeks ago. Before and after that game, though, the Cougars have shown that they are not nearly as good as they were expected to be, which makes the Frogs win over BYU a bit more pedestrian.
Additionally, TCU was at home when they beat the Cougars, while it will be a different story on the road. The Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS (-11.8 ppg) as a road favorite off a SU win vs. an opponent off a SU win since 1999. They are also 0-6 SU in last 6 non-Saturday conference road games, while Utah is 8-0 SU in its last 8 non-Saturday home games and 12-0 SU in its last dozen non-Saturday home/neutral site non-Saturday games.
Since the Horned Frogs have enjoyed recent big spread wins, this is reflected in the line and they are now overpriced, as demonstrated by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
From Game 6 on, play AGAINST a road favorite of 3 points or less off ATS wins of more than 11 points in its last 3 games vs. an opponent not off conference home underdog SU loss & ATS loss.
Since 1985, these teams are 1-10 SU ATS 0-11 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 10 ppg on average.
While TCU’s defense gets all the press, Utah’s is quite good as well. In fact, with the Utes we can play ON an underdog that is allowing less than 3 yards per rush on the season from October on.
Additionally, the Utes are very tough at home where they are rarely an underdog. In fact, they’ve only been a home dog 5 times since 1997. In those games, they’ve simply gone a perfect 5-0 ATS, while crushing the spread by more than 3 TDs per game on average! They are also 4-0 SU & ATS as a non-Saturday underdog with less than 33 days rest.
Utah also qualifies for a couple of NCAA Football POWER SYSTEMS. The first one states:
Play ON a non-Saturday home underdog vs. an opponent seeking revenge for a conference home favorite SU loss and not off 2 SU losses.
Just since 2006, these teams are 12-0 ATS, beating the spread by 11 ppg on average. It’s already 2-0 ATS in 2008, with each cover coming by 16½ points.
Next, we have a POWER SYSTEM that instructs:
From Game 3 on, play ON a +910% non-Saturday home team (not a favorite of 4+ points or underdog of 16+ points).
These teams are a perfect 11-0 ATS all-time, covering the spread by more than a TD.
Finally, it certainly hasn’t escaped our notice that as good as TCU is, Utah knows how to beat them. The Utes have won 4 of the 5 all-time meetings with the Horned Frogs, including going 2-0 SU & ATS the last 2 seasons. The only loss came 3 years ago, which was by a FG in OT. We look for the Utes to play their best game of the season to win this game by a TD.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: UTAH 31 TCU 24
Mike Neri
Denver +3
LENNY STEVENS
10* Maryland
BEN BURNS
ANNIHILATOR
PORTLAND
THURSDAY GAME OF THE YEAR
DENVER
THURSDAY GAME OF THE MONTH
UTAH
NCAA BLUE CHIP BLOWOUT
MARYLAND/VIRGINIA TECH UNDER
DIVISION GAME OF MONTH
CAPITALS