SIXTH SENSE
CLEVELAND –3 Denver 46
The Broncos are in a rut. They have failed to cover in six straight games and have lost three straight games. Last week they really struggled on the ground, gaining just 1.2ypr and 14 yards. To their credit they did hold a decent Miami running game to just 2.6ypr. Denver did gain 6.5yps and out gained Miami for the game 5.4yppl to 4.7yppl but three costly turnovers to only one for Miami did them in. Cleveland fell behind Baltimore 10-0, stormed back to lead 27-13 and they gave up the final 24 points of the game to lose 37-27. They were out rushed in the game 4.7ypr to 2.8ypr and out passed by a very average Baltimore passing game, 7.6yps to 6.2yps. For the game they were out gained 6.0yppl to 4.8yppl. Cleveland will start Brady Quinn at quarterback in this game. Not sure what that will mean but it is against a weak Denver defense so there is potential hope for Cleveland in this game. Denver averages 4.4ypr against 4.3ypr and 6.9yps against 6.6yps for a total of 6.0yppl against 5.6yppl. Unfortunately their defense has been horrible,allowing 5.0ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.8yps against 6.3yps and 6.0yppl against 5.3yppl. Cleveland has struggled on offense this year but they are an average team on offense. They average 4.7yppl against 4.7yppl. They too are well below average on defense, allowing 4.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.6yps against 5.8yps and 5.6yppl against 5.0yppl. One of the biggest issues for Denver has been turnovers but they qualify in my turnover table this week, which is 388-247-18, which says the turnovers may go their way this week. Cleveland also qualifies in a negative rushing situation, which is 112-47-8 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Denver by a half point and predict about 50 points. I have some concerns with taking Denver in this game knowing their last two road games they have been blown out at KC and NE and knowing they have plenty of injuries at running back and on defense. But, the value lies in their favor. The situations are definitely in their favor. And we have a poor defensive team laying points, which is usually not a good sign. I’ll take my chances with Denver getting the points in this game. DENVER 30 CLEVELAND 20
3% DENVER
KIKI SPORTS
3* UTAH
Nick Bogdanovich
Large TCU -2
Medium Browns -3
Medium Rockets/Blazers Over 182½
DR BOB
CLEVELAND (-3.0) 27 Denver 24
The Brady Quinn era begins for the Browns tonight, which makes this game a bit tough to forecast. The timing of the move was a bit odd considering that former starter Derek Anderson was actually playing very well over the previous 4 games after a horrible start to the season. Anderson averaged 6.9 yards per pass play over the Browns’ last 4 games, so switching to Quinn may not be a wise move. Quinn performed at decent level in the pre-season, completing 66% of mostly short passes for 6.8 yppp, but he faced a lot of reserve defensive personnel. I’ll assume that Brady will play at Cleveland’s season pass rating of 0.2 yppp worse than average and he should perform well against a porous Denver defense that has allowed 6.2 yards per play this season – although they played well in allowing just 4.9 yppl to Miami last week). Denver’s offense should also move the ball well, as the Broncos are 0.4 yppl better than average offensively while the Browns are 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively. The Broncos are suffering some attrition at the running back spot, as Michael Pittman and Andre Hall were both put on IR while top back Selvin Young has missed the last few games with a tender groin and is listed as questionable for this game. The lack of running backs will probably lead to more passing and that will probably work in Denver’s favor given how poor the Browns’ pass defense is. My math model actually favors the Browns by 6 ½ points in this game if Quinn plays at the same level as Anderson, but Cleveland applies to a negative 7373-132-6 ATS situation and I’ll pass on the side in this game. But, I will lean over the 46 point total.
BIG AL
MOUNTAIN WEST GAME OF THE YEAR
UTAH
KELSO
25 units TCU
10 units Browns -3
5 units Maryland +3
Insider Sports Report
4* T.C.U. -2 Range: -.5 to -4
3* Cleveland -3 Range: -1.5 to -4.5
3* Houston/Portland Range: 182.5 to 186
Lenny Del Genio
ACC Game of the Year
Maryland
ATS Lock Club
4 units TCU -1.5
3 units Orlando Magic - 4.5
ATS Financial Package
3 units Den/Cle Under 46
3 units Houston Rockets -4.5
BIG AL
MOUNTAIN WEST GAME OF THE YEAR
TCU
BIG AL's MOUNTAIN WEST GAME OF THE YEAR (UTAH/TCU) -- Thursday
At 8 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Utah Utes plus the points over TCU.
Which one is it?????
The Utes Thanks
Iceman
5* Atlanta
DOC
4 Unit Play Take Over 5 ½ in New York @ Atlanta
This numbers is too low considering that both clubs have been strong over plays all season long. That is because neither team plays much defense and thus we will not worry about who wins this game and just collect with the over. The Thrashers have went over this number five of their last six contests and the Islanders have went over two of their last three. Play the over and watch your money grow.
anyone got nsa?
thanks in advance
Brian King
Maryland football is the bastard step child in the D.C Regions legion of College Football fans. You will find Ohio State fans, Penn State fans and of course Wahoos and Hokies, more than you can stand. But Maryland is the school everyone ignores and pushes to the side.
Not tonight. Ralph Friedgen has turned this program around. I am so impressed with Maryland this year. They have hit the bumps in the road but they have performed at other times in an outstanding fashion. And despite that loss to UVA I think they are the best College Football program in the region (VA / MD / DC) in 2008.
They have the ACC's top rusher in Da'Rel Scott who has a question mark over him tonight but word around College Park is he will be on the field tonight looking to help Maryland get by Virginia Tech. The Hokies meanwhile have concerns of their own with Tyrod Taylor and Sean Glennon's status in doubt. Not that going to their third string QB would matter for this abysmal Hokies offense. Beamer has relied on defense and special teams all season but tonight he faces a team in Maryland that has its own proud Special Teams unit and a defense that is pretty damn tough.
Maryland also, unlike Tech, has an offense capable of putting points on the board. A key match up tonight will be Heyward-Bey versus the Tech secondary. If Chris Turner can get the ball to Heyward-Bey and avoid any costly mistakes Maryland will have a fairly easy time tonight.
Prior to dropping three in a row to Tech Maryland had won six straight in the series. Look for the Terps to get the big win tonight and take another step towards an ACC Title shot in a fiercely fought contest that the Terps should at least be able to stay inside the number. In their five games against unranked opponents this year the Terps have only been outscored 110-106. No way a deficient Tech team that is a dismal 0-4 SU and ATS after a bye week runs away with this. Look for Maryland to keep it close with a chance to win it in the fourth quarter. Maryland plus the points is the play tonight.
MARYLAND (+3) 25 Dimes
One of the first lessons I learned was to ride a streak until it ends. I do not always follow this rule. Tonight I will. Thursday Night home dog has been solid all year and we find Utah in that spot tonight. This is a huge game for the school with a planned black out and a capacity crowd in what may be some unpleasant weather conditions.
TCU is a Texas team not acclimated to the environment they find themselves playing in tonight with cold temps and a possibility of snow. This is the Utes house and they find themselves playing for a lot in this game tonight including a continued run at a perfect season and a potential January bowl date. The loser meanwhile will not be playing in January.
TCU is on their second straight road game and traveling on a short week to altitude. I am giving Utah the clear advantage here coming off a short week as well but playing at home off a mistake prone game last week against New Mexico. The Utes had nine penalties a muffed punt and a late interception while threatening in their 13-10 win. We catch them here at a great price off that uninspired effort last week while TCU has been steamrolling opponents on their way to rattling off 5 straight by an average of 28.4 ppg.
Thing is Utah has won nine straight at home, they are averaging 39 ppg, they have a 15-3 SU mark in November including 5-3 on Thursdays. All this and they hold a 4-1 SU advantage over TCU with an average score of 24-15. Meanwhile TCU is just 2-5 SU on Thursdays and their defense will be facing a very stiff challenge from veteran signal caller Brian Johnson and a Utah rushing game that has rushed for 520 yards over their last two games. We will see tonight if TCU is the real deal and their third ranked scoring defense and leading run defense can slow this Utah stampede. The Utes faithful will be out in force and the team that makes less mistakes wins. With Sophomore Andy Dalton at QB I see TCU losing the turnover battle.
Last year Andy Dalton struggled against Utah in a 27-20 Utes victory. He threw four picks in that game and now travels as a sophomore to Utah where the welcome will be anything but friendly. Utah has won four of the five meetings with TCU and everyone is jumping on this TCU bandwagon. Problem is those people are a week late to that party. Utah tonight in a thriller that will be closer than it should. Take Utah and the points to get it done tonight.
UTAH (+1') 25 Dimes
KELSO
25 units TCU
10 units Browns -3
5 units Maryland +3
10 units Philadelphia +5