Dave Malinsky
5* Dallas Cowboys
DOC
4 Unit Play.Take Dallas Cowboys over Seattle Seahawks
The Hawks are sending Mike Holmgren out as a loser having dropped seven of their last eight games. This will be their fourth game against the NFC East and they have yet to record a victory (0-3). Two of those games were blowouts, as they lost 44-6 to the Giants and 26-7 to the Eagles. The Cowboys are in the middle of a tight wild card race in the NFC and cannot afford a slip-up in this contest. They blew out the 49ers last Sunday and they are very similar to the Seahawks. Dallas has QB Romo back and expect this team to cruise to yet another victory. Dallas is 5-2 ATS in the last seven Turkey Day games and won the last two by an average of 29 points per game.
3 Unit Play.Take Texas Longhorns over Texas A & M Aggies
The annual meeting between the Horns and Aggies has turned into a dud this season with A & M falling off the radar. The Aggies got killed by Baylor last week and that does not bode well entering this contest. Coach Sherman appears he has taken on more then he can handle in College Station and Texas needs a blowout victory in order to hold onto the No. 2 spot in the BCS. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings and Texas is 13-2 ATS in their last game of the season at Memorial Stadium. Texas makes a statement and keeps the No. 2 ranking as we collect big in the process as well. Texas 55, Texas A & M 7.
RON RAYMOND
THANKSGIVING DAY SHOCKER!
Detroit Lions +11
BEN BURNS
I'm laying the points with PHILADELPHIA. I really like how this game sets up for the Eagles. Both teams come in off big losses. It is my opinion that "all losses are not created equally" though and that different types of losses need to viewed differently. Many will favor the Cardinals based on the fact that Arizona was relatively close in its loss, while Philadelphia was blown out. However, in the NFL, although it may sound strange, it's often easier for a good team to bounce back from a blowout loss than it is to recover from a closer defeat. Arizona could easily still be thinking about what could have been. After all, a win over the defending Super Bowl champs would have really shown that the Cards were for real. We have to go way back to last November to find the last time that the Eagles were defeated by double-digits. After that 38-17 loss vs. Dallas, they responded with a convincing victory the following week, going on the road and defeating Washington by eight. In addition to wanting to bounce back from last week's embarrassing loss, the Eagles desperately need a victory if they want to get back in the highly competitive NFC Wildcard race. Conversely, due to the fact that they play in the weakest division in the NFL, the Cardinals can lose this game and will still be in great shape for the playoffs. In other words, its much more important to Philadelphia. I like that the Eagles received a wakeup with McNabb's benching last week and agree with Andy Reid, who said: "Sometimes you have to step back to step forward in a positive way and Donovan will do that." I also really like the fact that the Eagles are sticking with McNabb this week, as that shows that they haven't given up on the season yet. Naturally, McNabb will be highly motivated to bounce back with a big performance after being benched for the first time in his career. Yes, the Cardinals bring the better record to the table. However, four of their victories came against teams from the NFC West and, as already mentioned, they play in a MUCH easier division. The Eagles would surely have a better record too, if they played in the NFC West. In fact, they're already 3-0 SU/ATS against Arizona's division rivals this season and they won those games by a combined score of 104-36! Including those results, the Eagles are a highly profitable 25-11-2 ATS their last 38 against teams from the NFC West. The Eagles are outscoring opponents by an average score of 25.6 to 16.4 at home this season. Look for McNabb and co. to bounce back with a huge effort, earning the win and cover in front of the home fans and the national Thanksgiving audience. *NFL Situational GOY
I'm taking the points with DETROIT. The majority of the betting public will be quick to lay the points with the visitors in this game. The feeling will be that Tennessee will be highly motivated to bounce back with a blowout win after seeing its dreams of an undefeated season come to an end last week. I feel that will be easier said than done though, as there's often a natural letdown after a lengthy undefeated streak is snapped. The Titans still aren't really being challenged by anyone in the AFC and it should be easy for them to overlook the lowly Lions. Obviously, it's been another extremely disappointing season in Detroit. That being said, I believe that this game will mean much more to the Lions than it will to their guests. After all, a nationally televised victory vs. the team with the best record in the NFL would sure make things seem a lot better in Detroit. As you know, in this league, teams with poor records are fully capable of upsetting teams with excellent records. Here's an example from this season. The Giants, the only other team besides the Titans with just one loss, have beaten their division rivals, all three of which are strong teams, and they've easily dispatched of almost every opponent which they have faced. Yet, the only two teams that have given them real problems were Cleveland and Cincinnati, a pair of losing teams which are a combined 5-16 on the season. The Bengals took the champs down to the wire and the Browns beat them by double-digits. While none of those teams will be involved in this afternoon's game, my point is that bad teams can and do compete with good teams, often when least expected. In addition to the fact that I feel the Lions will be the more motivated team here, I also really like that they didn't have to travel at all while Tennessee had to do so after coming off a series of really "big" games. Not having to travel is especially advantageous given that this is such a short week. The Lions are a perfect 8-0 ATS the last eight times that they were double-digit underdogs and they qualify as this year's "Thanksgiving Day Roast."
I'm playing on Seattle and Dallas to finish UNDER the total. Both teams come in playing better defensively than most probably imagine. Despite being unable to be break into the win column, the Seahawks have now held six straight opponents, including high-scoring Arizona, to 26 points or less. Those six teams have averaged just 21 points. With Seattle having only scored more than 20 points only once during that stretch, it's no surprise that five of those six games stayed below the number. The Cowboys limited San Francisco to 22 points last week. That's respectable but not great. However, a closer look shows that the 49ers have just nine through three quarters, so their overall could easily have finished with less. The Cowboys were dominated defensively the previous week. In that game, they limited the Redskins to a mere 10 points and 228 total yards. Last week's result notwithstanding, the Cowboys have still seen the UNDER go a profitable 36-16-1 over the last 15+ seasons when playing a team with a losing record during the second half of the season and 61-37-2 against losing teams overall during that stretch. Looking at more recent history and we find the UNDER at 4-1 the last five times that these teams have faced each other. They combined for 41 points in January of 2007 and just 23 when they met in October of 2005. Look for this afternoon's game to prove lower- scoring that most are expecting once again.
I'm playing on Arizona and Philadelphia to finish UNDER the total. The Eagles are off a bad loss last week and are now 0-2-1 their last three games. Over the years, when things have gotten tough in Philadelphia, the Eagles have typically elevated their level of play on the defensive side of the ball. In fact, the UNDER is a highly profitable 35-18-1 the last 54 times that they were coming off two or more consecutive games without a victory. While they did give up a lot of points in the second half at Baltimore last week, the Eagles are allowing a mere 16.4 points and 294.2 yards per game at home. Not surprisingly, four of their five home games have stayed below the total. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 6-1 the last seven games here, dating back to last season. Meanwhile, many might be surprised to find out that the high-scoring Cardinals have actually seen four of six road games, including each of their last two, dip below the number. The Eagles have seen the UNDER go 21-9 the last 30 times that they were laying points and I expect this evening's game to prove lower-scoring than most are expecting once again.
WSP-SMOOTH44
DETROIT +11
Brian Smith
Philadelphia -3 2 units
Dallas -12.5 1 unit
GoldSheet
TURKEYDAY KEY RELEASE
Titans over Lions by 21
(Best best teaser-Tenn and Under)
Dr Bob
2 Star Selection
Seattle (+12.5) 22 DALLAS 25
Dallas is obviously a much better team now that they have Tony Romo firing balls down the field, but the Cowboys are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of more than 10 points – all of them with Romo at quarterback. Another letdown by Dallas is very likely in this game, as the Cowboys apply to a negative 70-144-3 ATS situation while Seattle applies to a very strong 50-11-1 ATS situation. Those angles actually intersect quite often and the record is an incredible 27-1-1 ATS for the dog when they both apply to the same game, including a straight up win by Oakland at Denver last week. My math model favors Dallas by 13 ½ points, but my other math model favors Dallas by just 12 points, so the line is certainly fair in this game. The Seahawks have Matt Hasselbeck back at quarterback and they’ve played very competitively in recent weeks, losing by margins of 2 points, 6 points and 3 points to 3 teams with winning records (Miami, Arizona, and Washington) and Seattle is 8-1 ATS as an underdog of 8 points or more under coach Mike Holmgren, including 2-0 ATS this season. I’ll take Seattle in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more and for 3-Stars at +13 or more.
NFL Strong Opinions
DETROIT (+11.0) 17 Tennessee 23
Detroit is still winless, but the Lions are also 4-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog this season and they apply to a very strong 49-9-1 ATS home underdog situation in addition to a couple of other favorable contrary situations. Tennessee is a below average offensive team that will most likely stick to their rushing attack this week after abandoning the run in last week’s loss in New York. While the Titans will have success on the ground against Detroit’s soft defensive front (I project 4.6 ypr), a run-oriented attack will serve to eat the clock and shorten this game. My main math model favors Tennessee by just 7 ½ points in this game, but the Titans tend to play better than their yardage stats suggest and my other model, which takes into account scoring efficiencies of each team, favors Tennessee by 12 ½ points. A point spread of 11 points seems to be about right and the situations is certainly strong enough to consider Detroit as a possible Best Bet. However, Tennessee has played two games this season against other bottom teams and those games were easy wins for the Titans – 24-7 at Cincinnati and 34-10 at Kansas City. Those two games are not enough to sway me from liking Detroit in a great situation, but they’re enough to keep me from making the Lions a Best Bet. I’ll consider Detroit a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.
ATS Lock Club
4 units Arizona +3
3 units Dallas -11.5
Larry Ness
Las Vegas Insider
Philadelphia Eagles
7* MASSIVE MISMATCH
Gonzaga
7* Holiday Bailout-CBB
Baylor
ATS LOCK
4 units Arizona +3
3 units Dallas -11 1/2
3 units Providence +3 1/2
ATS FINANCIAL
3 units AZ/PHI Over 47
3 units Tenn -11
3 units St. Marys -10 1/2
Kevin Kavitch
Seattle / Dallas
Too high of a total. Overall the Dallas run game hasn't been very good lately and they may not need to force the issue nfor 60 minutes on offense. The Seattle D has been respectable and can be competitivem here. The Dallas run D has looked solid and the pass D looks better. Seattle has struggled to throw it with Hasselbeck trying to get his form back. I expect Seattle will churn out their 5th straight under, especially considering the big number. Play Under 46.5 for a 3* regular play.
Earl Morgan
Detroit +11 3 units
Dallas -12.5 2 units
Cajun-Sports NFL/CFB Executive
Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys
Prediction: 3* Dallas Cowboys -12.5
The Dallas Cowboys host their Annual Thanksgiving Day Game against the Seattle Seahawks this year on FOX TV. This game will be the late afternoon contest and may be the last game of the day for most because of the limited availability of the NFL Network who will air the night game on Thursday between the Arizona Cardinals and the Philadelphia Eagles.
Many asked what was missing during the Cowboys 1-2 skid recently the answer is quite simple, Tony Romo. Romo still looked tentative against the Redskins after coming back from a broken pinkie finger on his throwing hand. He threw for 198 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in a 14 to 10 win over the Skins. But in Sunday’s win over San Francisco he looked like the two-time Pro Bowl Quarterback again as he led his team to the 35 to 22 win.
Romo completed 23-of-39 passes for 341 yards and three touchdowns and was finally able to get Owens involved in the offense. Owens had seven catches for 213 yards and one score after he had five straight games of 38 yards or less a stretch that included three games without Romo.
Romo and Owens hope to build off Sunday's performance against a Seahawks' defense that is second-worst in the league against the pass allowing 259.2 yards per game.
Romo is 9-3 as a starter at Texas Stadium, and has led the Cowboys to victories in their last two Thanksgiving Day games. Dallas has won those games by an average of 29.5 points with the two-time Pro Bowl quarterback throwing for 501 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception.
The Cowboys were actually rather fortunate in that they had their bye week just two weeks ago while the beaten and battered Seattle Seahawks had their bye week way back in Week Three of the season.
Seattle has certainly had their share of injuries this season including their Quarterback Matt Hasslebeck who has struggled with back problems for most of the 2008 campaign.
Hasslebeck’s recent return did not spark the Seahawks offense like they had hoped instead he has thrown five interceptions in the past two games. He is obviously rusty after missing five games and has not had much support from his offensive teammates. This offense has failed to score more than 17 points in seven games against non- NFC West opponents.
Another problem for this Seattle team is their defense allows over 400 yards per game on the road this season with 402.4 yards per game average. They have also allowed 401.7 yards per game of offense over their last three games. All this is good news for Dallas as they are 27-9 ATS when they gain at least 400 yards in a game since 1992. They are almost perfect (8-1 ATS) when they gain over 400 yards the last two seasons.
Our Team Performance Ratings Index has the Cowboys winning this game 37 to 13. Our Player Performance Ratings Index has the Cowboys with a 7.67 point advantage over the Seahawks that translates into a point differential of 19.67.
Key Angles: DALLAS is 14-3 ATS in home games vs. teams averaging 5.2 or less passing yards/att. since 1992. DALLAS is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. teams averaging 5.2 or less passing yards/att. in the second half of the season since 1992. DALLAS is 19-6 ATS in home games versus teams averaging <=285 yards/game since 1992. DALLAS is 18-6 ATS in home games versus teams averaging <=4.75 yards/play since 1992. The Cowboys are 17-3 ATS when facing a team that has completed less than 55% of their passes season-to-date. The Cowboys are 17-5 ATS as a home favorite when facing a team that has averaged fewer than 275 yards offense per game season-to-date. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS as a home 7+ favorite the week after in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Seahawks are 5-13 ATS on the road when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak. The Seahawks are 3-14 ATS when their passing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks. The Seahawks are 1-10 ATS on the road versus a non-divisional opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent. SEATTLE is 0-7 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons.
Key Systems: Play AGAINST NFL Teams after a loss as a dog against a non-divisional opponent in which they were winning at the half, 9-25-1 ATS. Play ON NFL Teams as a favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road in their next game, 66-40-3 ATS.
Key Tech Set: Play ON teams playing on a Thursday with a season-average O/U more than their opponent’s season O/U average and they scored more than 24 points in their last game, 25-3 ATS since 1994. Play AGAINST teams with an above average WR3A and a TD via Turnover % For that is higher than their TDT%A, 148-48 ATS since 1994.
With Romo back in the saddle and most of his troops healthy we will back the hosts here as the Cowboys continue their recent trend of doing away with their Thanksgiving Day opponents by almost 30 points per game.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* Dallas Cowboys -12.5
4 STAR SELECTION
TEXAS -35 over Texas A&M
The Longhorns close out what has been a wild regular season with a Big 12 Conference game against the hated Aggies. This season has been disappointing for Texas A&M, as it owns a 4-7 record, will be home for the holidays, and has been a non-factor in the league. The Aggies have lost their last two outings, including a 41-21 setback to Baylor on the road last weekend.
As for Texas, it is tied with Oklahoma and Texas Tech atop the Big 12 South Division standings. All three teams are in action this week, and if all three win as they are favored to do so, the BCS standings will decide which of the three will face Missouri in the Big 12 championship game. It appears to be a two-team race between Texas and Oklahoma, and while Texas is currently ahead of the Sooners, it is widely speculated that a victory over Oklahoma State this weekend would vault the Sooners into the title tilt. That would undoubtedly anger the Longhorns, who beat the Sooners on a neutral field earlier in the season. The lone loss for Mack Brown's team came against Texas Tech in Lubbock on a long touchdown pass in the closing seconds. The most recent outing for Texas took place On November 15th against Kansas and resulted in a 35-7 win.
One of the more contentious issues for Texas is the coaches' poll, which comprises one-third of the weight in the BCS formula. The Longhorns were ranked fourth in the latest rankings, two spots behind Oklahoma after the Sooners delivered a crushing victory against Texas Tech last Saturday.
"I think the coaches will come to light this weekend. I really worry that coaches don't pay too much attention to (voting). We didn't play (last) weekend. They're sitting there, getting on their planes, saw a score and said, 'Wow, let's do this,'" Texas coach Mack Brown said.
One plus for Texas in terms of swaying voters is it plays the only major college football game staged on Thanksgiving. The Longhorns are also aware of the upset potential the Aggies flexed the past two seasons.
"You walk around campus, you go home and people are calling you from back home talking about what needs to happen and what needs to go on, and if we're going to be there in Miami or not. I reply back with the same text message, 'We've got to beat Texas A&M. That's it.'" — Texas quarterback Colt McCoy.
Although he engineered upsets against Texas each of the past two seasons, Aggies QB Stephen McGee has been relegated to the sidelines. A recurring shoulder injury early in the season cost McGee his spot. QB Jerrod Johnson stepped in and progressed nicely before playing poorly in the past two games. Either quarterback could have trouble dodging Texas defenders. The Aggies are allowing three sacks per game and the Longhorns lead the nation in sacks.
Losing to Baylor was certainly not a good sign for the Aggies, as underdogs of more than 17 points off a SU loss to Baylor are 0-5 SU (-31.8 ppg) & 0-5 ATS (-8.3 ppg) since 1992
While A&M is getting a lot of points here, they are 0-3 SU (-44.3 ppg) & 0-3 ATS (-18.8 ppg) as a road underdog of more than 18 points since at least 1980.
While they have beaten Texas the past 2 seasons, it’s likely time to “pay the piper “here, as the Aggies are 0-6 ATS since 2007 vs. opponents playing with double revenge.
Following 2 ugly losses, big underdogs in their final games have simply been demolished under the exact circumstances outlined in an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM, which states:
In its Final Game, play AGAINST an underdog of more than 21 points off a SU loss of 15+ points (not an ATS win of 6+ points) in each of its last 2 games and not a SU loss of 3+ points before that.
These teams are 0-10 SU & ATS since at least 1980, which is as far back as the database goes, failing to cover the spread by an incredible 21 points per game!
Meanwhile, Texas is 4-0 SU (+33 ppg) & 4-0 ATS (+12.9 ppg) in their final home game of the season with less than 2 SU losses.
Also of note, very large home favorites at the right price have been strong against most opponents in the final game of the season. This is documented by another POWER SYSTEM that the Longhorns qualify for. It reads:
In its Final Game, play ON a conference home favorite of 30½-36½ points vs. an opponent not off a conference home underdog SU loss and ATS win.
In another situation that has been perfect since at least 1980, and perhaps longer, these teams are 11-0 SU (+46.5 ppg) & 11-0 ATS (+13.8 ppg).
Having won the last 2 years, the Aggies will get the Longhorns full attention. Texas needs a win and will look to absolutely bury A&M, as they will be making a statement to the voters that they, not the Sooners, should be in the Big 12 Championship Game.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TEXAS 51 TEXAS A&M 7