JOHN RYAN
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Texas – This is an amazing play in that at the current line of 35 points it ties the all-time highest favorite ever played by the Simulator. That play won 70-7 and this game shapes to be near the same result. Yes, this is a intra-state rivalry and there is the inaccurate term “Value” in taking Texas A&M. Personally, I hate that word value…. Sounds so contradictory at times. If there is value then maybe there is a strong reason the other team is undervalued. AiS shows an 84% probability that Texas will win this game by 35 or more points. Texas has a 90% probability of outgaining A&M by a MINIMUM of 200 yards and will gain a minimum of 9 passing yards per attempt. Note that Texas is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 200 or more yards over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 26-7 ATS for 79% since 1997. Play on home favorites in November of 31.5 or more points after playing their last game on the road. The media is hyping the fact that A&M has had a bye week to prepare and study film et. al. But, A&M is just 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992. Plus, Brown is a strong 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games in November games. I won’t belabor the point. Take Texas.
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Michigan State (CBB) – This is the first time I have ever released a 5* play as a free member selection. It is a small of saying thanks on a day we truly need to say thanks for the great country we live in, for our family and friends, and those significant others that make our lives fun to live. I also want to thank all of you for another year of growth for John Ryan Sports and I cannot begin to tell you how appreciative I am of your loyal support of my work. Thanks and Happy Thanksgiving. AiS shows a 74% probability that Michigan State will win this game by 8 or more points. AiS also projects an 85% probability or better that MSU will force a minimum of 14 turnovers and will score a minimum of 75 points. Note that MSU is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they force 14 to 18 turnovers in a game over the last 3 seasons; 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams making >=37% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons; 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Maryland in a series of poor roles noting they are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons; 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more since 1997.
Jake Timlin
300♦ Philadelphia Eagles
In a battle of the birds I say take the Eagles as they soar past the Cardinals tonight. I mean thanks to the Eagles being at home on a short week and minus a very small number I totally see Philadelphia earning the home cover tonight. After all due to the Cardinals traveling to the dreaded eastern time zone where they have lost 16 of their last 18 games, including three loses at Washington, at New York and at Carolina this year Arizona is in big trouble tonight given the low number. Even worst news for the Cardinals is the fact that West coast teams this year are 0-14 SU when traveling to the eastern time zone. Meanwhile, the Eagles should not be counted out this season as Philadelphia still has a shot at the postseason. Also, look for a much better game out of McNabb as he has his pride to protect after his benching last week. Flat out, tonight is a very tough situation for the Cardinals as playing their fourth road game in six week and doing so on a short week in the cold is too much to overcome if you ask me. So with that I say take the Eagles minus the points as they win by at least a touchdown.
100♦ Texas Longhorns
Huge number without a doubt, but given the need for style points and the fact Texas is playing with double revenge I look for a 40 plus victory for the Longhorns tonight. After all due to the Aggies awful 4-7 record mixed in with their 113th ranked defense that is allowing 43 ppg in league play Texas A&M is totally outmanned tonight in Austin. I mean if Oklahoma was able to beat the Aggies by a score of 66-28 in College Station then the Longhorns with their explosive offense and solid defense should be able to duplicate the Sooners. Bottom line, Texas is in need for a huge attention grabbing win and thanks to playing a very bad Texas A&M team I look for the Longhorns to get a big win as they roll by at least 40 points. Take Texas minus the home points!
Kelso
15 units Texas -35
Sixth Sense
Tennessee –10.5 DETROIT 44.5
Tennessee faced a very good and hot NY Jets team last week and lost the game 34-13 and were never really in the game. They were out gained only 5.6yppl to 5.5yppl but the Jets dominated the game much more than those stats would indicate. NY averaged 4.9yppl to just 4.1yppl for Tennessee and they ran the ball 39 times, which watered down their overall yards per play numbers. They averaged 6.4yps to 5.9yps and Tennessee threw the ball 40 times to just 11 rushes, which also inflated their overall yards per play numbers. Detroit jumped out to a 17-0 lead over TB before giving up 38 of the next 41 points to be scored in the game on their way to their 11th straight loss this season. Overall they were out gained by TB 4.6yppl to 4.0yppl, including being out passed 5.7yps to 3.3yps. They did out rush TB 4.9ypr to 3.7ypr. Tennessee averages 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl and allows just 5.0yps against 5.8yps and 4.6yppl against 5.0yppl. Detroit averages just 5.2yps against 6.0yps and 4.7yppl against 5.1yppl. On defense they continue to be horrible allowing 5.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.6yps against 6.2yps and 6.2yppl against 5.3yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Tennessee by 12 points and predict about 43 points. Not much of an opinion for me in this game. I certainly don’t have any interest in laying 12 points on the road and also have no interest in taking a Detroit team with as bad a defense as they have. Tennessee has defeated the two bad teams they have played this year by 17 and 24 points. Meanwhile, the closest Detroit has come in a home game this year is eight points. That doesn’t leave a lot of room for error for them to cover here. TENNESSEE 27 DETROIT 16
DALLAS –12.5 Seattle 46.5
Dallas won easily over SF last week but only out gained SF 5.9yppl to 5.8yppl. They allowed SF to throw for 7.5yps although they did average 8.5yps themselves, thanks to a couple of long pass completions to Owens. Seattle lost at home to Washington 20-17. They were out gained only 5.1yppl to 5.0yppl and out rushed Washington 7.0ypr to 4.6ypr. They only passed for 3.4yps and for some reason this year they just haven’t been able to throw the ball, even with Hasselbeck back at quarterback. For the season, Seattle averages 4.4ypr against 4.0ypr but just 4.6yps against 6.1yps and 4.5yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow just 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr but 6.9yps against 6.3yps and 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. Dallas averages 6.8yps against 6.0yps and 5.7yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 5.5yps against 5.9yps and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. Dallas qualifies in a letdown situation, which is 105-35-3. That same situation played against Denver last week and against Atlanta two weeks ago against Denver. I didn’t play it two weeks ago seeing Atlanta qualified in a good situation as well. Seattle also qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 133-87-5. Numbers favor Dallas by just nine points and predict about 47 points. Seattle is good enough to stay within this large number and has a veteran quarterback to help them do so. Dallas has four big games on deck and certainly won’t and can’t afford to take this game lightly but they also don’t need to win this game by 20 points to achieve what they need, which is simply a victory. They could be up by 17 points late in the game and give up a late score for the back door cover or simply play a close game the whole way through, which is what I expect. DALLAS 27 SEATLLE 20
PHILADELPHIA –3 Arizona 46.5
Both teams come in off a loss as Philly was blown out at Baltimore 36-7 and Arizona lost at home to the Giants 37-29. Philly was out gained 3.6yppl to 3.2yppl and out passed 4.8yps to 2.8yps. They allowed just 2.8ypr to Baltimore while gaining 4.1ypr themselves. Considering Philly benched McNabb at halftime, it’s hard to evaluate Philly’s passing game last week although it wasn’t doing much prior to the benching. More importantly is they allowed Baltimore to gain just 2.8ypr and 4.8yps. It was really five Philly turnovers that did them in more than anything. Arizona out gained the Giants 5.5yppl to 5.3yppl although they were out rushed 3.2ypr to 1.5ypr and out passed 6.9yps to 6.6yps. But they threw the ball 19 times more than the Giants to make their overall yards per play numbers look a little better. Arizona averages just 3.4ypr against 4.0ypr but 7.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl overall. They allow just 3.7ypr against 4.4ypr but 6.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. Philly averages 6.2yps against 5.9yps and 5.4yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow just 3.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.3yps against 5.8yps and 4.5yppl against 5.0yppl. Both teams qualify in good situations. Numbers favor Philly by 5.5 points and predict about 56 points. Arizona hasn’t defeated anybody of substance on the road this year, losing by 7, 21 and 4 points to Washington, the Jets and Carolina. Granted, record wise, Philly isn’t better than any of those teams but they aren’t far behind. I’ll lean towards Philly in the game seeing the numbers support them. Hard to believe with neither team being able to run the ball that well and both teams being able to stop the run well, this won’t end up being a passing game and the numbers support the over. Weather appears to be fine and should be a non-factor. PHILADELPHIA 30 ARIZONA 26
BEST BETS
3% SEATTLE +12.5
3% ARIZONA/PHILADELPHIA OVER 46.5
Anyone have Nick Bogdanovich plays today? Happy Thanksgiving to all!!
Seabass
200* Philly
50* Texas
30* Sea/Dallas Over
20* Tenn/Det Under
20* Baylor
20* Gonzaga
20* Denver
100* Steam Tennessee
Sixth Sense
Tennessee –10.5 DETROIT 44.5
Tennessee faced a very good and hot NY Jets team last week and lost the game 34-13 and were never really in the game. They were out gained only 5.6yppl to 5.5yppl but the Jets dominated the game much more than those stats would indicate. NY averaged 4.9yppl to just 4.1yppl for Tennessee and they ran the ball 39 times, which watered down their overall yards per play numbers. They averaged 6.4yps to 5.9yps and Tennessee threw the ball 40 times to just 11 rushes, which also inflated their overall yards per play numbers. Detroit jumped out to a 17-0 lead over TB before giving up 38 of the next 41 points to be scored in the game on their way to their 11th straight loss this season. Overall they were out gained by TB 4.6yppl to 4.0yppl, including being out passed 5.7yps to 3.3yps. They did out rush TB 4.9ypr to 3.7ypr. Tennessee averages 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl and allows just 5.0yps against 5.8yps and 4.6yppl against 5.0yppl. Detroit averages just 5.2yps against 6.0yps and 4.7yppl against 5.1yppl. On defense they continue to be horrible allowing 5.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.6yps against 6.2yps and 6.2yppl against 5.3yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Tennessee by 12 points and predict about 43 points. Not much of an opinion for me in this game. I certainly don’t have any interest in laying 12 points on the road and also have no interest in taking a Detroit team with as bad a defense as they have. Tennessee has defeated the two bad teams they have played this year by 17 and 24 points. Meanwhile, the closest Detroit has come in a home game this year is eight points. That doesn’t leave a lot of room for error for them to cover here. TENNESSEE 27 DETROIT 16
DALLAS –12.5 Seattle 46.5
Dallas won easily over SF last week but only out gained SF 5.9yppl to 5.8yppl. They allowed SF to throw for 7.5yps although they did average 8.5yps themselves, thanks to a couple of long pass completions to Owens. Seattle lost at home to Washington 20-17. They were out gained only 5.1yppl to 5.0yppl and out rushed Washington 7.0ypr to 4.6ypr. They only passed for 3.4yps and for some reason this year they just haven’t been able to throw the ball, even with Hasselbeck back at quarterback. For the season, Seattle averages 4.4ypr against 4.0ypr but just 4.6yps against 6.1yps and 4.5yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow just 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr but 6.9yps against 6.3yps and 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. Dallas averages 6.8yps against 6.0yps and 5.7yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 5.5yps against 5.9yps and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. Dallas qualifies in a letdown situation, which is 105-35-3. That same situation played against Denver last week and against Atlanta two weeks ago against Denver. I didn’t play it two weeks ago seeing Atlanta qualified in a good situation as well. Seattle also qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 133-87-5. Numbers favor Dallas by just nine points and predict about 47 points. Seattle is good enough to stay within this large number and has a veteran quarterback to help them do so. Dallas has four big games on deck and certainly won’t and can’t afford to take this game lightly but they also don’t need to win this game by 20 points to achieve what they need, which is simply a victory. They could be up by 17 points late in the game and give up a late score for the back door cover or simply play a close game the whole way through, which is what I expect. DALLAS 27 SEATLLE 20
PHILADELPHIA –3 Arizona 46.5
Both teams come in off a loss as Philly was blown out at Baltimore 36-7 and Arizona lost at home to the Giants 37-29. Philly was out gained 3.6yppl to 3.2yppl and out passed 4.8yps to 2.8yps. They allowed just 2.8ypr to Baltimore while gaining 4.1ypr themselves. Considering Philly benched McNabb at halftime, it’s hard to evaluate Philly’s passing game last week although it wasn’t doing much prior to the benching. More importantly is they allowed Baltimore to gain just 2.8ypr and 4.8yps. It was really five Philly turnovers that did them in more than anything. Arizona out gained the Giants 5.5yppl to 5.3yppl although they were out rushed 3.2ypr to 1.5ypr and out passed 6.9yps to 6.6yps. But they threw the ball 19 times more than the Giants to make their overall yards per play numbers look a little better. Arizona averages just 3.4ypr against 4.0ypr but 7.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl overall. They allow just 3.7ypr against 4.4ypr but 6.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. Philly averages 6.2yps against 5.9yps and 5.4yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow just 3.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.3yps against 5.8yps and 4.5yppl against 5.0yppl. Both teams qualify in good situations. Numbers favor Philly by 5.5 points and predict about 56 points. Arizona hasn’t defeated anybody of substance on the road this year, losing by 7, 21 and 4 points to Washington, the Jets and Carolina. Granted, record wise, Philly isn’t better than any of those teams but they aren’t far behind. I’ll lean towards Philly in the game seeing the numbers support them. Hard to believe with neither team being able to run the ball that well and both teams being able to stop the run well, this won’t end up being a passing game and the numbers support the over. Weather appears to be fine and should be a non-factor. PHILADELPHIA 30 ARIZONA 26
BEST BETS
3% SEATTLE +12.5
3% ARIZONA/PHILADELPHIA OVER 46.5
Thank You Blade...... 😀
LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT
TENNESSEE TITANS vs DETROIT LIONS
Play: DETROIT LIONS +12.5
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS vs DALLAS COWBOYS
DALLAS COWBOYS -12.5
ARIZONA CARDINALS vs PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Play: ARIZONA CARDINALS +3
PROVIDENCE vs BAYLOR
Play: BAYLOR -4
LENNY STEVENS
10* Seattle
10* Philadelphia
charlie sports
thursday nov 28, 2008
nfl. seattle @ dallas under 47 (500* )
nfl. seattle+13' (30*)
nfl. detroit+11' (20*)
nfl. arizona @ philly over 46 (20*)
nfl. texas A&M35 (10*)
nfl. phily-3 (10*) free play
Special K
Here Are The Picks you have Purchased:
CBB 20* SUPER STARTS AT HIGH NOON EASTERN TIME:
505 20* SUPER K - SIENA SAINTS
DOC
5 Unit Play.Take Baylor over Providence
The final game of the night should feature a mismatch, as the Friars are not up to par at this point of the season with the Bears. Baylor returns four starts from last year’s tournament team and started fast last year and has yet to lose a game in 2008. The Friars have a new coach in Keno Davis and his style takes time to get used too and they have already suffered a loss to Northeastern. Providence does return all five starters but playing a new system will be their undoing early. I just do not see them being able to stop Carter, Jerrells, Dugat, and Rogers and they are quick to the hole. Providence is averaging 90 points per game but that came against terrible competition and expect Baylor to keep them in the sixties and cruise to a victory.
BEN BURNS
I'm taking the points with MARYLAND. The Spartans boast a strong team and they've been dominant in their first two games. However, they've had more than a week off in between games, which isn't always a good thing, and now they're taking a major step up in class. Michigan State's first two games were against a pair of weaklings, Idaho and IPFW. Obviously, ACC foe Maryland, which is already 3-0, brings a lot more to the table. As Spartans coach Tom Izzo had to say: "It seems like it heats up quickly for us now, with the games we have coming up." Izzo went on to say: "But still the single biggest issue I have is my own team." Izzo's primary "issue" is likely the health of his senior center Goran Suton. Suton is dealing with a knee injury that may well give him problems all season. Maryland comes in with a 3-0 record, having outscored opponents by a 81-58 margin. The Terrapins almost lost their last game, needing overtime to defeat Vermont. I feel that "close game experience" will serve them well here though and I like the fact that the Terps battled to get the victory. Coach Gary Williams had this to say: "In any good season, there's a win like that somewhere along the line, where it seems there's no chance to win. It kind of cements the idea that if you work hard enough, good things happen." Williams, who now has 400 victories for his career, has seen his Terrapins go an impressive 18-2 their last 20 games played in the month of November. The Terrapins defeated the Spartans by two points the last time that these teams faced each other and I look for them to give the Spartans all they can handle again today. *Underdog GOM
Blazer
3* Oklahoma St.
3* Arizona Cardinals
Fastbreak
3* Maryland