Dr. Bob
Opinion
RUTGERS (-10.0) 35 Louisville 22
Rutgers started the season a surprising 0-3 straight up and 0-3 ATS, but the Scarlet Knights are a perfect 7-0 ATS since then and have won 5 consecutive games entering this contest. Senior quarterback Mike Teel has regained his deep touch and speedster Kenny Britt ahs been the beneficiary with 27 catches for 477 yards in Rutgers’ last 3 games. Louisville’s secondary is down two starters in SS Latarrius Thomas and top CB Woodny Turenne and that unit has been exploited in the last 4 games for an average of 8.4 yards per pass play while the front 7 has recorded a total of zero sacks in those games. Teel still has a tendency to throw interceptions but Rutgers should score plenty of points in this game. Louisville, meanwhile, is a bit below average offensively and Rutgers is a bit below average defensively, so the Cardinals aren’t likely to keep up with what their defense allows a hot Rutgers’ attack. My math model favors Rutgers by 13 points, which is where the line opened, and I’ll lean with the Scarlet Knights based on the line value.
Matt Fargo
7* OVC Game of the Week BLOWOUT
AUSTIN PEAY
Stephen Diamond
CBB EASTERN GAME OF THE WEEK
5* Virginia Commowealth over WMU
BeatYourBookie
100* Play Rutgers (-10.5) over Louisville
Louisville is 1-5 ATS as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points
Louisville is 1-6 ATS in road games when the total is between 49.5 and 56 points
Louisville is 1-5 ATS vs. conference opponents this season
Louisville is 1-7 SU coming off 3 or more consecutive losses
100* Play San Diego (-9) over Oakland
San Diego is 9-1 SU & ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points
San Diego is 8-0 SU when playing in the last 4 weeks of the regular season
San Diego is 2-0 SU & ATS coming off 2 or more home losses by 7 points or less
Winning Angle
Play Rutgers (-10.5) over Louisville*
Rutgers has won 5 consecutive games and they have also won 22 of the last 25 games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. Rutgers has won 15 of the last 20 home games and they are averaging over 38 points a game on offense over the last 3 games.
Play on Rutgers minus the points on Thursday
Play San Diego (-9) over Oakland*
Oakland has lost 5 of the last 6 games and they have also lost 9 of the last 10 games when playing in the month of December. Oakland has lost 10 of the last 11 games coming off 3 or more consecutive UNDER the totals and they are only averaging 14 points a game on offense this season.
Play on San Diego minus the points on Thursday
Winning Angle
NBA
Play Denver (-4.5) over San Antonio* (Top NBA Play)
NCAA Hoops
Play UCLA (+5) over Texas* (Top NCAA Play)
Play Butler (+2.5) over Cleveland State*
NHL
Play San Jose (-300) over Columbus* (Top NHL Play)
BEN BURNS
I'm taking the points with SAN ANTONIO. The Spurs enter tonight's game with payback on their minds as the Nuggets upset them at San Antonio earlier. That's worth noting as the Spurs, 18-9 their last 27 games at Denver, typically fare well when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. They're 44-23 SU the last 67 times they faced an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting. During the same stretch the Spurs, who are coming off a home loss to the Pistons, are 44-19 SU the last 63 times that they are coming off a game vs. an Eastern Conference opponent, 19-10 when coming off a double-digit loss AND an outstanding 33-10 when coming off a game in which they scored 85 points or less. The Spurs finally had Duncan, Parker and Ginobli on the floor together last time out, as Ginobli made his first start since returning from injury. However, as is often the case in the first game when a star (or stars) comes back, the team suffered a bit of an overall letdown. The Spurs played the Pistons tough for a half but suffered a second half meltdown. Coach Popovich was very critical of the effort and was quoted as saying: "The most disturbing thing is that we were very soft. I think Detroit intimidated us. It was really sad to watch in that respect. I thought we totally folded to their aggressive play." I expect those comments and the previous loss to provide a motivating effect and for the Spurs to bounce back with a huge effort. *Annihilator
I'm playing on the Chargers and Raiders to finish UNDER the total. Despite the teams combining for four touchdowns in the final minutes, we finally saw a Monday night game finish below the total last week. I expect another relatively low-scoring contest for this Thursday evening AFC West clash. Both teams are coming off losses which finished below the total. The Raiders combined with the Chiefs for 33 points, losing 20-13. Quarterback JaMarcus Russell struggled again and the Raiders gained just 271 total yards of offense. Meanwhile, the Chargers were upset by the Falcons, dropping a 22-16 decision, while gaining a mere 201 total yards, a season-low. These teams saw their earlier meeting finish with a final score of 28-18. That score was deceiving though and the game could have easily been much lower-scoring. In fact, the Raiders had a 15-3 lead in the fourth quarter. The Chargers scored 10 points in the final two minutes with Tomlinson breaking a big play for a touchdown with one minute to go. That came as they were just trying to run out the clock and was the reason that the Chargers, who still only managed 295 total yards, covered the spread. That late touchdown was also the reason that the game finished above the total, or pushed, depending on when and where one played. As I said, it could have easily been lower-scoring. Counting the earlier meeting as an 'over,' the Chargers have seen the UNDER go 6-4 when listed as a favorite and 6-3 when facing an AFC opponent. Meanwhile, the Raiders have seen the UNDER go 7-4 as an underdog and 7-3 when playing on grass. The Raiders have also seen the UNDER go 8-2-1 when coming off a divisional loss and 7-1 their last eight games overall. The UNDER is also 7-1 the last eight times that the Raiders traveled to San Diego. In fact, if we look back further, we find the UNDER at a profitable 16-4 the last 20 years when the Raiders have played here. With the Raiders averaging just 14.3 points and 263 total yards per game, I look for those numbers to improve again this evening. *AFC TOW
I'm taking the points with LOUISVILLE. Its true that Rutgers comes in as the much hotter team. However, I feel that Louisville is much better than recent results indicate and that the Cardinals, who will be looking to avoid a losing record and become bowl eligible, will deliver a highly motivated effort. Last season's meeting was decided by just three points with the Cardinals winning by a score of 41-38. I played on Louisville in that game and the Cardinals covered as -2 point favorites, rallying back from a deficit to do so. Looking at the previous meeting, which was here at Rutgers, and we find that it was also decided by just a field goal, with the Scarlet Knights earning a 28-35 victory. I feel that tonight's game could easily come down to the wire once again and that the large pointspread provides excellent value with Cardinals. These teams have almost identical offensive numbers. Rutgers is averaging 25.9 points and 370 yards per game. Louisville is averaging 25.6 and 381. That being said, I believe that the Cardinals will be able to trade points with their hosts. Louisville, which has gone 5-1 SU/ATS the last six times that it was coming in off a bye, isn't typically this big an underdog. However, if we look back several years, we find the Cardinals at a profitable 7-3 ATS the last 10 times they were underdogs of greater than eight points. Look for them to bounce back with a huge effort, earning at least another cover. *Big East GOM
LENNY STEVENS
10* Rutgers
Cajun-Sports CFB Executive
2 STAR SELECTION
RUTGERS –10 over Louisville
A couple of teams going in opposite directions collide Thursday night when the slumping Cardinals travel to New Jersey to face the streaking Scarlet Knights.
With just a 5-6 overall mark, Louisville is in serious danger of posting its first losing season since finishing an ugly 1-10 in 1997. The Cardinals find themselves in this position courtesy of a four-game losing streak.
On the other side of the field, Rutgers is the hottest team in the Big East right now having won FIVE straight games. The current win streak has helped the team overcome a poor start to the season and become bowl-eligible for the fourth year in a row, although they are looking for a final regular season victory to make it certain.
Louisville is averaging a respectable 382 total ypg, but they have had issues hanging onto the ball, committing 28 turnovers on the year. In its last game, Louisville rolled up 474 yards of total offense, but it wasn't enough to compensate for its five turnovers in a loss to West Virginia. Hunter Cantwell threw three picks and lost a fumble in the setback and he completed only 27-of-47 tosses for 276 yards and a touchdown.
Defensively, Louisville has struggled down the stretch and is now allowing 27 ppg and 341 total ypg on the season. The unit's biggest problem has been its inability to slow down opposing pass attack, yielding over 220 ypg and 19 touchdowns through the air. That spells BIG trouble here because that plays right into the Knights offensive strength.
After a slow start to the season, Rutgers' offense has started to come on strong and is now averaging 26 ppg and 370 total ypg. In the last 4 games, they have averaged better than 44 ppg! QB Mike Teel's play down the stretch has played a big part in the team's success and he has now completed 60% of his throws, with 16 touchdowns against 12 picks on the year.
On defense, the Knights have been pretty sound for much of the season and are limiting foes to less than 19 ppg and 325 total ypg. The unit has really clamped down against the pass, yielding only 177 ypg and eight touchdowns through the air. Teel and his talented receiving crew will be licking their chops, as the Cardinals are so banged up in the secondary that they're down to the third name on the depth chart at free safety and are missing half of their starting back 4.
A handicapping strategy we’ll employ here is to play AGAINST a team suffering from a cluster of injuries. If a defense or offense is missing several starters all at once, the team can be very vulnerable to fatigue in addition to being unable to replace the absent talent. A team with a single unit that is missing several key starters and reserves, such as an offensive line without 2+ starters or a defensive backfield missing its top cornerbacks, also figures to struggle. Here, we get a red-hot Rutgers passing attack going against a crippled Louisville secondary.
Not only have the Cardinals lost all 4 of their recent games, they are 0-4 ATS in those games, as well as 0-4 SU & ATS last 2 years as an underdog off a SU loss.
Off 3 losses, non-Saturday road underdogs of more than 4 points have played with little confidence against opponents off a win.
Their recent skid also qualifies them for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
From Game 4 on, play AGAINST a non-Saturday road underdog off 3 SU losses and scoring less than 42 points in its last game vs. an opponent off a SU win of 3+ points.
Such teams are now 0-15 SU & ATS since at least 1980.
Meanwhile, Rutgers is 5-0 ATS with revenge vs. .500% or worse opponents, not to mention 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games.
The Knights also are active for a POWER SYSTEM, as teams finishing the season at home and surging on offense over their last 4 games have been unbeatable. Specifically:
In its Final Game, play ON a home team off scoring an average of 44+ points in its last 4 games.
Perfect since at least 1980, these teams are 14-0 SU (+30.2 ppg) & ATS (+13.6 ppg), including Boise State’s thrashing of Fresno State last week, in which the Broncos beat the Bulldogs by 41 points to cover the number by 20 points.
We don’t expect a win here by any such magnitude. With a flicker of a bowl eligibility in front of them, we do expect the Cardinals to come out fighting here, but they will likely make enough mistakes that will be capitalized on by the home team, allowing Rutgers to get the SU & ATS win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: RUTGERS 27 LOUISVILLE 14
DOC
3 Unit Play.Take Under in Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers
The Chargers have not been scoring many points of late and their season is all but over as they will not be able to catch Denver in the AFC West. San Diego has not scored over 20 points in their last four games and thus this play sets up perfectly for the under. Oakland has one of the worst offenses in the league and they have not went over this posted total since week 4 of the season. We will not worry if the Bolts can cover this big number and just collect with the under. San Diego 24, Oakland 14.
BIG AL
45-12 COLLEGE BASKETBALL ROADKILL WINNER
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes plus the points over St Marys.
NCAA BASKETBALL GAME OF THE MONTH
At 8 pm, on ESPN U, our selection is on the Cleveland State Vikings minus the points over Butler.
Scott Rickenbach
Pittsburgh Penguins +115 over CAROLINA HURRICANES
2* (Top Play) Pittsburgh Penguins Money Line (+) @ Carolina
We suffered a very tough beat with Pittsburgh last night as they never trailed the entire game but the Rangers got the tying goal late in regulation to send the game to overtime. The game then proceeded to the shootout and the Rangers got the win there. The disappointing loss will have the Penguins highly motivated tonight. Yes, this is a back to back situation but the Pens just had one of these over the weekend and they responded very favorably. The situation was very similar to. They blew a one-goal lead to Buffalo on Friday in what ended up being a frustrating defeat. They then turned around and walloped the New Jersey Devils 4 to 1 the very next night! We look for similar results here in what is a similar situation. We are well aware of the fact that the Canes just fired their coach but the timing was very strange to say the least. The Canes last played on Sunday and that was a 4 to 1 loss to the Ducks. Why did they wait until yesterday to make this move? Now, instead of giving new coach Paul Maurice a chance to get re-acclimated with the team (he coached here previously for a number of years), he steps right in the day before game day. Sure the Hurricanes may try to give a better effort after this move but will this team immediately be “firing on all cylinders”? We highly doubt that. Also, we are well aware of the goal-tending situation for both clubs and although Pittsburgh may go with rookie John Curry (whom we like by the way), Carolina is likely to go with back-up Michael Leighton due to the injury to Cam Ward. The Pens are familiar with Leighton and they like what they’ve seen as they are 3-0 against him in his career. As for the Pens Curry, even though he lost his first start, he played very well and he’ll be ready here. The Canes also have never faced him and this is an advantage to the netminder in our opinion. The Penguins will be hungry after last night’s loss and note that only twice in the first two months of this season has Pittsburgh been in a losing streak. In other words, they know how to bounce back off of a loss and that’s what we fully expect here! Carolina is just 1-4 in their last 5 games and they’ve scored just 1.6 goals per game in regulation of those five games (the lone win came in overtime). The Canes fortunes aren’t going to change overnight and we’re getting the Penguins with great line value here. Play Pittsburgh on the money line as a Top Play selection.
RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS -vs-Louisville Cardinals
1* (regular play) OVER the total in Rutgers vs Louisville
The Cardinals are 5-6 and need a win to have a shot at the bowl season. The Scarlet Knights are 6-5 but need a win to guarantee a bowl slot plus improve the type of bowl they go to by finishing with a 7-5 mark. With two solid QB’s in Teel for Rutgers and Cantwell for the Cardinals, there will be plenty of offense in this one. Though it will be chilly this evening it will not be brutally cold. Earlier showers during the day should be moved out of the area and the winds are expected to be light. With light winds and no precipitation, the conditions are just right for an absolute aerial assault for both teams in this match-up. Rutgers will look to throw all game long. Their passing attack has been one of the best in the country during their five game winning streak and they’re facing a Louisville secondary that has been depleted by injuries. Also encouraging the Scarlet Knights to throw early and often is that their running game is not what it once was. Additionally, the Cardinals run defense was solid this season, at least until they ran into West Virginia two weeks ago. Therefore, Rutgers knows that the best way to beat Louisville is through the air. As for the Cardinals, they will be forced to throw here. They will need to do it just to keep pace with Rutgers high powered attack and the Cards have the weapons to attack a Rutgers secondary that is known for poor tackling. Just get the ball in the hands of the speedy Cardinals wide receivers, and QB Cantwell knows that he can have a big day! In what could be Cantwell’s final college game, coach Steve Kragthorpe also will be looking to assist him in any way he can to put up big numbers in what would be his final audition for the NFL. Cantwell has the skills and they will be on display Thursday night. Yes, Louisville only scored 21 points in their most recent game but they were done in by five turnovers as they actually had nearly 500 yards of offense in that game. Also, the Scarlet Knights game stayed under two weeks ago but it was because they faced a very weak Army offense that only managed three points. This is a much bigger challenge for the Scarlet Knights defense this week and we foresee a back and forth high scoring affair! Play OVER the total in Rutgers as a regular selection
Rocketman
Pittsburgh @ Carolina
Play: 4* Carolina -125
Carolina is 4-0 SU and ATS at home vs Pittsburgh the last 3 years. Penguins are 24-53-2 in their last 79 games playing on 0 days rest. Penguins are 1-4 in their last 5 games following OT on the previous day. Hurricanes are 6-2 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Home team is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings. We'll play Carolina for 4 units tonight!
Columbus @ San Jose
Play: 5* Columbus +260
Columbus is not playing bad puck this year. They have won their last two games against good teams by beating Washington 3-0 and Vancouver 3-2. They've had a little extra rest for this one tonight too. San Jose has been dominant this year but they can and will be beat. Blue Jackets are 6-2 in their last 8 Thursday games. Blue Jackets are 7-3 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. We'll play Columbus for 5 units tonight!
Jimmy Moore Guaranteed Selections
10* Oakland - San Diego UNDER 42
The Raiders only score 14 points per game on average and the only time they went over 20 since September was against the bad Denver defense. The Chargers offense has sputtered since their bye week scoring an average of 16.5 points per game while Oakland's defense has not given up more than 20 in their last 4 games. The Raiders have gone under in 7 of their last 8 division road games as a Touchdown or more underdog. Play the low to win big with Jimmy on Thursday night NFL action.
ATS Lock Club
3 Chargers -8.5
4 Cleveland State -3
4 Texas -6
ATS Financial Package
3 Rutgers -10.5
3 VCU -12.5
3 Wisc. G.B. -10.5