Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
$1000K THURSDAY NIGHT CRUSHER TOTALS PLAY OF THE YEAR
New Orleans and Chicago OVER 45
Las Vegas Sport Picks
NHL:
1* Blue Jackets -120
1* Kings -1/2 even (bet the 2-way line)
1* Islanders/Penguins over 5.5 -130
1* Ducks/Sharks over 5.5 +110
NBA:
3* Jazz -2
NCAAB:
2* Villanova -10
2* Kansas St. -5
2* St. Joe's/Nova over 129
3* Long Beach St./Weber St. over 138
NFL:
2* Bears -3
2* Saints/Bears over 45
CHARLIE
500* Saints / Bears over 44'
30* Saints +3
20* Boston -9'
20* St Joes +9'
10* Wisconsin Milwaukee +14'
Dallas -10 free play
LENNY STEVENS
10* Villanova
Pass Football
BEN BURNS
I'm playing on Portland and Utah to finish UNDER the number. These teams met last month and the total was only 184. Tonight's line is significantly higher and I feel that provides us with excellent value with the UNDER. Portland does come off a high-scoring game at Orlando, losing 109-108. However, the Blazers are still only allowing an average of 94 points and they've still seen the UNDER go a profitable 10-4-1 their last 15 games. Additionally, the Blazers have seen the UNDER go 27-19 their last 46 after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game and an excellent 24-9-1 during that stretch, after scoring 105 or more. Additionally, during the same time, they've seen the UNDER go 14-6 when coming off an upset loss AND 55-31 in 86 teams which average 105 or more points per game. The Jazz, who are allowing 94.7 points per game at home, saw their most recent game (at Minnesota) slip below the total. They allowed just 87 in their most recent game here and have now seen the UNDER go 5-1 their last six games overall. Even though the earlier meeting did finish above the number, the UNDER is still a solid 8-5 the last 13 series meetings here and 12-8 the last 20 series meetings overall. Look for this evening's game to also prove lower-scoring than expected with the final score staying beneath the generous total. *TNT TOM
I'm playing on the Bears and Saints to finish UNDER the total. This number is awfully high for a cold December night game at Chicago. Yes, we know that the Saints can put up points. However, they haven't scored nearly as many on the road - they've seen three of their last four road games stay below the total, while averaging 19 points in those games - and this week they'll be facing a stingy Chicago defense which has held two of its last three opponents to 10 points or less. Not surprisingly, with the defense elevating its level of play, the Bears have seen four of their last five games dip below the total. Tonight's total is currently still above the key number of 44. Overall, nine of Chicago's 13 games have produced 44 combined points or less. Looking at the last 20 December games played at Chicago and we find that a whopping 17 of them finished with less than 44 combined points. This season, the Bears have seen the UNDER go 5-1 when playing a game with a total ranging from 42.5 to 49. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 9-4 when they played a game with a total in that range the last three seasons and a profitable 32-19 their last 51 games in that range. Even with the past two meetings finishing above the total, note that 13 of 18 games in this series, dating back to 1980, have finished with less than 44. Yes, Brees has put up big numbers against the Bears the last two games. However, he was also sacked three times in each of those games and the Saints lost them both badly. Given those results, given that Brees has 15 interceptions on the season while the Bears are #2 in the league with 19 picks, AND given that the weather likely won't be conducive to a precision passing attack, I won't be surprised if the Saints place a much greater emphasis on establishing the run for their third try at a victory here. We know that the Bears will definitely be trying to run the ball regularly, as thats what they like to do and because they'll be hoping to keep the Saints' offense off the field as much as possible. Additionally, Kyle Orton still isn't quite as sharp as he was before his injury. We don't normally think about a team's punter too much. However, the Bears' punter Brad Maynard has been so good at pinning teams deep that he's a really effective 'under' weapon. Indeed, he leads the league in forcing opponents to start inside their own 20-yard line, having done that 32 times already, including nine in the last two games alone. The Jaguars had a total of two return yards against him. Looking at some other stats from last week's game, which had a temperature of only 18 degrees at kickoff, and we find that the Bears had less than 300 yards of total offense while holding Jacksonville to just 278. Look for another strong defensive effort with the final score finishing below the generous number. *Thurs. TOM
DOC
3* Boston / Washington Over 197
3* New Orleans +3
ATS Lock CLub
3 units Saints +3
4 units Celtics -9.5
3 units Miami Ohio -13.5
ATS Financial Package
3 units Saints/Bears Under 45.5
4 units Blazers/Jazz Over 194
3 units Kansas State -6
SIXTH SENSE
CHICAGO –3 New Orleans 44.5
The Bears had no problem with Jacksonville last week in their 23-10 win. They out gained Jacksonville 4.9yppl to 4.0yppl, including out passing them 6.0yps to 3.9yps. They were out rushed 4.3ypr to 3.3ypr. The Saints defeated Atlanta in a close game, 29-25 and out gained the Falcons 6.7yppl to 6.6yppl. They were out passed 9.5yps to 7.2yps but rushed for 184 yards at 6.1ypr and held Atlanta to just 3.3ypr. The Saints average 3.8ypr against 4.4ypr but 7.8yps against 6.2yps and 6.3yppl against 5.4yppl overall. They allow 4.1ypr against 4.3ypr and 6.5yps against 6.4yps for a total of 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. Chicago averages 4.0ypr against 4.3ypr and just 5.7yps against 6.2yps for a total of 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow just 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.7yps against 6.0yps for a total of 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl. Chicago qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 79-34-6. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 90-52-7. Numbers favor Chicago by 5.5 points and predict about 52 points. The Saints have averaged about 17 points on the road this year against above average defensive teams. They have allowed about 21 points per game to below average offensive teams. Chicago has allowed 20 points per game at home to the better than average offensive teams they have faced and have averaged about 25 points at home against the below average defensive teams they have faced. Those numbers would suggest a final in the neighborhood of about 23-18 for Chicago. The Saints have played five above .500 teams on the road this year and lost all of those games. To be fair to them, they have played some close games with losses by 2, 3 and 5 points in three of those five games. The Bears defeated the Saints two years ago when both teams played in the NFC Championship game 39-14 and then last year in the season final when both teams were finishing poor seasons, 33-25. Drew Brees has struggled on the road this year and I see the Bears defense coming up big at home, in the cold weather, against a team that struggles to run the ball and against a team that stuffs the run pretty good. That should produce some unfavorable passing situations for New Orleans. Combine that with value and strong situations in their favor along with a short number and the Bears make sense here. CHICAGO 27 NEW ORLEANS 17
YTD 47-29-1 +42.30%
3% CHICAGO -3
IndianCowboy
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ Kansas State Wildcats
3 units Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +5.5
Boy, the line alone makes you wary that something is up. After all, you have an undefeated Big 12 team at home only laying 5 points to a Southern Miss team that is hitting the highway. In fact, over 80% of the public is on Kansas State here and yet the line has refused to budge. But, Southern Miss in my opinion is a team that is really under the radar. Keep in mind that this team beat La Salle earlier this year in overtime, beat a very good Iona team, lost to South Alabama in overtime as well and lost to New Mexico by just 2 points on the road. So, this in many ways is a bounce-back for Southern Miss. Kansas State has lost the last 3 games by a combined total of 9 points and those come against very solid teams in Oregon, Iowa and Kentucky. Call me nuts here, but I think 80% of the public is indeed wrong here and that Southern Miss likely wins this game outright. Besides, I’ve always said, the 5.5 line in sports betting is one of the worst lines as it typically indicates that the underdog is likely to win outright. The Eagles are 6-1 ATS following a S.U. loss and Kansas State is 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
Jeff Benton
15 Dime: BEARS
5 Dime: WIZARDS
Bears
I don’t quite get the short line the oddsmakers have hung on this game. The Saints have won just once in six tries on the road this season, and that was a 30-20 victory at crappy Kansas City a month ago when the Saints outgained the Chiefs by a “whopping” 10 yards. True, New Orleans was competitive in three other road losses – 29-24 at Washington in Week 2; 34-32 at Denver in Week 3; and 23-20 at Tampa Bay two weeks ago. However, those three games – heck, all six of New Orleans’ roadies this year – were played in optimal weather conditions.
Tonight, the Saints take their precision passing attack to Soldier Field, and even though there’s no snow in the forecast, game-time temperatures will be below freezing. And with the unpredictable winds in Chicago, it’s pretty safe to assume that wind will be some kind of factor tonight, which really impacts the pass-happy Saints and works in favor of the run-first Bears.
Also, consider how winter trips to Chicago have turned out for the Saints the last two years. Back in January 2007, the Saints invaded Soldier Field for the NFC Championship Game … and lost 39-14 as a 2½-point underdog, in large part because they lost the turnover battle 4-0. Then 11 months later, New Orleans returned to Chicago for a Week 17 meeting with the Bears … and lost 33-25 as a one-point favorite, with QB Drew Brees going 35-for-60 for 308 yards, but two interceptions (New Orleans also lost a fumble). I’m not the greatest at math, but that’s seven turnovers in two cold subfreezing games at Soldier Field – hence the reason the Bears put up 72 points despite just 615 yards of total offense.
Meanwhile, the Bears have been a pretty decent home team this year, winning four of six games. One loss was to then-unbeaten Tennessee 21-14 as a three-point home ‘dog, and the other was a fluky 27-24 overtime loss to Tampa Bay in Week 3 when Chicago blew a 10 point lead with 6½ minutes to play. And while this might look like a favorable matchup for New Orleans offensively – the Bears’ defense ranks 28th in the league in pass defense, while Brees and the Saints are first in pass offense – it’s interesting to note that Brees’ TD-to-INT ratio is 19-4 in the Superdome, but 7-10 on the road. And to reiterate, none of those 10 INTs on the road came in this kind of frigid weather.
When the Bears have the ball, look for them to do a lot of handing off to rookie RB Matt Forte (1,081 rushing yards), who should have success against the Saints’ defense that’s giving up 130.5 rushing yards per game on the road (4.2 per carry), not to mention 28.3 points per game on the road. And when Brees has the ball, you can expect a lot zone coverage from Chicago, who really have no reason to fear the run for two reasons: 1) the Saints’ ground game is weak outside the dome (85 rushing ypg on the road); and 2) teams haven’t run on the Bears at home this year (82.8 ypg, 3.2 yards per carry).
In the end, you’ve got two teams fighting for their playoff lives, but given the results the last two years when these teams have met at Soldier Field and given the Saints’ road woes all season long, it’s impossible to pass up Chicago at this cheap price … just as it was impossible to pass up the Panthers as a small home chalk against Tampa Bay on Monday night.
‘Da Bears are the play.
Wizards
Simply put, where’s the motivation? Where’s the motivation for the Boston Celtics to blowout Washington tonight? Yeah, the defending champs have won 12 straight games and 20 of their first 22 to start the season, and hell, they’re even 8-3 ATS in their last 11. However, in their last two road games, the C’s went to Charlotte and barely held off the putrid Bobcats 89-84 (as an 8½-point road favorite), and then at Indiana in their most recent game Sunday, they needed overtime to dispatch of the Pacers 122-117.
Now they travel down the eastern seaboard to D.C. to face the Wizards, who are coming off their biggest win of the season (a 107-94 rout of the Pistons as a five-point home favorite). In fact, Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games, all as an underdog (3-0 ATS at home), including a 20-point rout of New Jersey, a six-point loss to the Blazers (as a 6 ½-point home underdog), a two-point home loss to the mighty Lakers (as a 12-point pup) and a seven-point loss at Chicago (as a seven-point underdog). In fact, the Wizards haven’t lost a game by double digits in six straight outings going back to before Thanksgiving!
Lenny Del Genio
Oddsmaker Mismatch
Southern Miss
KBHOOPS
NBA
5* Boston Celtics -9.5 -120 **POD**
NCAAB
5* Villanova -10.5
5* Kansas State -6
Adam Meyer
4* Bears -3
4* Celtics -10.5
4* T-Blazers over 194
3* Weber St +1
2* Canadiens --1.5
Pro Sports Plays
10* Take Villanova (-10) over St. Joseph’s (NCAA Top Play)
St. Joe’s has lost 18 of the last 20 games as an underdog of 10 points or more and they have also lost 3 consecutive games vs. Villanova against the spread on the road the last 3 games.
5* Play Dallas (-10.5) over Charlotte (NBA Bonus Play)
5* Take Miami-Oh (-13.5) over WI-Milwaukee (NCAA Bonus Play)