Erin Rynning
Playmaker Portland / Utah Under
Cajun-Sports NFL Executive
New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears
Prediction: 3* Chicago Bears -3
Soldier Field in Chicago will be the site of tonight’s NFC clash between the host Chicago Bears and the visiting Saints from New Orleans. The Bears have won the last two meetings between these two teams both having been played in Chicago.
Both teams need a win tonight to keep any chance of a playoff berth alive. A loss here will more than likely be the final nail in the proverbial coffin.
New Orleans is Number 1 in the NFL in yards per game (405.9), yards per play (6.3) and passing yards per game (310.2) and tied for first in passing touchdowns with twenty-six. The Saints rushing attack has struggled this season averaging only 22 rushes for 83 yards on the road. This one stat alone could be the difference in tonight’s game with frigid conditions.
The Bears are Number 6 in the NFL against the run allowing only 91.2 yards per game on the ground. If they can continue their solid play against the run and force the Saints into 3rd and long situations this could possibly lead to turnovers and easy points for the Bears. We also see that the Bears are 9-1 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better over the last 3 seasons. They are also 6-0 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Chicago’s Passing Defense is ranked 28th in the league. This is not a positive sign when facing the Number 1 Passing Offense but the conditions and the style of defense the Bears play have proven to be effective against this Saints offense. In fact the Saints have been outscored 72-39 in their last two visits to the Windy City and in those two losses they threw 109 passes and ran just 32 times.
Chicago will use rookie sensation RB Matt Forte in the running game to set up their passing attack. Bears quarterback Kyle Orton doesn't get to throw nearly as much as his fellow Purdue alum, but he's established himself as the leader of the offense and has a 15-8 TD-INT ratio and an 83.5 passer rating.
The Saints defense allows 128 yards rushing per game with an average of 4.3 yards per carry. Their pass defense is allowing 238 yards passing per game with an average of 7.7 yards per catch. New Orleans allows a total of 365 yards of offense per game and an average of 6 yards per play. They also only force their opponent to 12.7 yards per point.
The Saints are 3-12 ATS the week after a win in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing. The Saints are 0-5 ATS as a road dog after a win in which they were losing at the end of the third quarter. The Bears are 7-2 ATS versus any team with the same record. after a straight up win.
NFL teams are 17-36-1 ATS as a road dog versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. NFL teams are 14-2-2 ATS within 3 of pick at home the week before playing on Monday Night at home. NFL teams are 10-0-1 ATS within 3 of pick at home the week before playing on Monday Night at home against a divisional opponent.
Our Team Performance Ratings Index shows the Bears with a 5.8 point advantage in tonight’s contest. Our Player Performance Ratings Index also signals a win for the Bears in this game with a 6.1 point edge. Combine these factors and we have a final score of Chicago 26 New Orleans 17. Until the Saints can prove they can win in these types of conditions and against this Bears team we will continue to back the host here so lay the short price as the Bears cash another winning ticket on Thursday night.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* Chicago Bears -3
Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
7000* COLLEGE HOOPS CRUSHER WINNER
Villanova -9.5
William Kidd
NBA QUADRUPLE DIME LATE STEAM WINNER
Utah -2.5
Wayne Root
Chairman - Bears
Eddie Mush
Client Picks, take these teams
4* Jazz -2.5
3* Bobcats +11
4* Troy +13
4* Bears -3
Josh Dean
Celtics -10 2 Units
St. Joseph's +11.5 1 Unit
Seabass
NHL
20* Columbus
10* Carolina
NBA
20* Charlotte
NCAAB
30* Long Beach State
30* Villanova
NFL
20* Bears
Steam Play 100* Bears/Saints Over 46
Northcoast
Marque Bears/Saints Over 46
JEFFERSONSPORTS
SAINTS +3.5 -125
Donn Wagner
4* Dallas Under
4* Utah Under
3* Wisc Mil
3* Idaho State
3* Wisc GB Under
3* Miami O Under
RAS
Sac State under 140.5
Troy State over 146.5
Dr Coglye West
12* Minnesota -115
8* Pitt/NYI OVER 5.5
Executive
300 Jazz
250 Bears
LPW Sports Forecasting
35* PERFECT SITUATION CLUB 13-2 NFL
CHICAGO