Ron Raymond
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Lenny Del Genio
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Rocketman
ST. LOUIS BLUES
ATS Lock Club
4 units Colts -5.5
4 units Magic -1.5
3 units Arkansas St -12
ATS Financial Package
3 units Indy/Jax Over 44
3 units Evansville +30
3 units Louisville -15.5
Lenny Del Genio
25* Thursday Night Game of the Year
Indianapolis is just terrible in division play, at least when it comes to the betting window, having cashed only three of their last 14 AFC South games. Peyton Manning's favorite target Marvin Harrison won't be playing tonight. There are some key defensive injuries for the Colts as well. Sure, some players are out for the Jaguars as well (Matt Jones, Fred Taylor), but that actually works to our advantage here as Maurice Jones-Drew gets more carries. With him as the featured back, Jacksonville won last week. You might want to play the Colts here due to the revenge angle. You would be wrong. They are 11-26 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss by a touchdown or less. Indy essentially has the Wild Card wrapped up, so don't necessarily expect maximum effort. They are 9-23 ATS in the last two weeks of the regular season, dating all the way back to 1992. Dungy's team was less than impressive the L3 weeks against the likes of Cleveland, Cincinnati and Detroit, so their seven-game win streak is rather fraudulent. Jacksonville is our 25* Thursday Night Game of the Year.
atslocks.com
Jacksonville +6.5 (10 unit play)
Tom Freese
10* Portland T Blazers
What happened to the PM option? I can't figure out how to PM any more.
Gold Medal Club
CBB N.Texas HUGE
NFL Jacksonville (REG)
NHL Atlanta HUGE
AntonWins
2 units Indianapolis/Jacksonville Over 44
PROFIT ON SPORTS
Indianapolis/Jacksonville OVER 44
Portland -5 over Phoenix
Evansville +30 over N. Carolina
Wayne Root
Chairman- Jaguars
Millionaire- Cal St Northridge
Money Maker- Louisville
Jeff Benton
15 Dime: JAGUARS (plus the points vs. Colts) ... NOTE: If you can get the Jaguars at +7, by all means, grab it, even if it means buying the hook to jump from 6 1/2 to 7. As you know, 7 is a key number in the NFL, and it's worth protecting your investment.
5 Dime: MAGIC (minus the points vs. Spurs)
5 Dime: TRAIL BLAZERS (minus the points vs. Suns)
Jaguars
My long-term clients likely know by now that I’m hardly the biggest Jacksonville Jaguars fan. When the so-called experts were touting the Jags as a Super Bowl contender prior to the season, I was the one waving the red flags, believe the team was way overhyped. Sure enough, Jacksonville is 5-9 SU and 4-10 AS, including 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS at home – that one home cover coming in Sunday’s 20-16 come-from-behind win against the Packers as a 2½-point underdog. And that victory snapped a four-game SU and ATS losing skid for the Jags.
All this said, I simply cannot trust the Colts to cover this kind of pointspread on the road against a division rival for whom tonight’s game, in all essence, is their playoff game. Yes, Indy has won seven straight games, the last two being double-digit routs of the lowly Lions and Bengals at home. However, if you watched Sunday’s game against winless Detroit, you know that Indianapolis had to fight a full 60 minutes, as the game was tied at 21 until midway through the fourth quarter and remained a seven-point game until the Colts kicked a field goal with 39 seconds to play.
Take away the last two weeks, and Indy’s other five wins during its current streak came by margins of 3, 4, 6, 3 and 4 points against the Patriots, Steelers, Texans, Chargers and Browns, respectively. And even though the Colts are 5-2 SU on the road in 2008, not one of those five victories was by more than four points.
Also important to note: The Jaguars have not been intimidated one bit over the years when facing their division rivals. They’ve split the last four meetings (3-1 ATS) – including a last-second 23-21 victory at Indianapolis back in Week 3 as a four-point underdog. Going back to 2003 – so this encompasses the time when the Colts were an elite NFL team – Jacksonville is 4-6 SU in the last 10 meetings, with only two of the last six defeats being by more than a touchdown. Jack Del Rio’s team is also an impressive 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 battles with Indy.
The Jags showed a lot of heart in rallying to beat the Packers last week, and as noted above, with this being a prime-time nationally televised contest, this is their playoff game. They would love nothing more than to put a dent in the Colts’ postseason hopes, so I’m not worried one bit about Jacksonville’s motivation. Nor am I worried about the Jags’ ability to move the football, as they gashed the Colts defense for 236 rushing yards in that Week 3 victory, which allowed them to control the ball for more than 41 minutes. Well, Indy’s run defense remains a weakness (126.8 rushing yards per game allowed), so I expect a healthy dose of Maurice Jones Drew tonight.
At the same time, Indy, which needs a win to seal a wild-card berth, comes into this one banged up, with stars like RB Joseph Addai, hard-hitting and run-stuffing safety Bob Sanders questionable with injuries, and WR Marvin Harrison ruled out with a hamstring injury.
Finally, the Jaguars have been a strong home underdog over the years, going 9-3 ATS after Sunday’s win over Green Bay. Meanwhile, the Colts are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games when laying points on the road against AFC South rivals. All of the pressure is on the Colts tonight, which makes Jacksonville all the more dangerous. Take the points with the Jaguars, and if the defense can put pressure on Manning and force a couple of turnovers, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see an outright upset.
Erin Rynning
Playmaker W Kentucky