Jim Kruger
4 units Cincy
3 units Nebraska
3 units S. Carolina
The Pres
4 units S. Car
4 units USC
3 units PSU/USC Over
Rocketman
3 units Georgia
BLAZER
3* Iowa
3* Nebraska
3* Georgia
3* Penn St.
3* Va.Tech
NORTHCOAST
5* GOY GEORGIA
3* Penn St.
3* Clem/Neb Over
GOLDSHEET
1.5* Cinn
1* SC
1* Penn St.
Probability
4* Va.Tech
3* Iowa
CHARLIE
500* Cincinnati vs V Tech Under 42
30* Penn St vs USC Under 45
20* Georgia -8'
20* Cincinnat -2'
10* Penn St +9
South Carolina +4 free play
Northcoast Triple Totals
Clemson over 56
Penn State under 45
Iowa under 43
Marquee
Va Tech/ Cincy Under
EAST COAST SPORTS CONSULTANTS
WILLIE "D"
Elite IOWA
Insider CINCINNATI
"LEGS" DIAMOND
BOOKIE MASSACRE MICHIGAN ST
BOOKIE MASSACRE CINCINNATI
RANDY MITCHEL
Platinum USC
Diamond MICHIGAN ST.
ROUNDBALL
3* S.Alabama
JEFFERSONSPORTS
GEORGIA -9
PENN ST. +9
Gameday
5* Georgia
Cajun-Sports CFB Executive
4 STAR SELECTION
South Carolina +4 over Iowa
The Gamecocks and Hawkeyes square off early on New Year’s Day for the first Bowl Game and college football contest of 2009.
Steve Spurrier has finally guided South Carolina to a New Year's Day bowl game after missing out on a Bowl Game altogether last year. The Gamecocks will be trying to bounce back from an ugly end to the regular season, as they suffered a 50-point loss at Florida and a 17-point loss at Clemson in their last 2 games.
Iowa made a strong push down the stretch by winning five of their final six games, including a big win over third-ranked Penn State in early November. The team has now been idle for five weeks following a 55-0 thrashing of Minnesota prior to Thanksgiving. The Hawkeyes are also happy to be playing on New Year’s Day after not receiving a bowl invite last season.
Offensively, the Gamecocks will look to run the ball as often as they throw it. Sophomore Chris Smelley and freshman Stephen Garcia have split time at quarterback, with varied success. Garcia, who will get the start here, is more of a threat with his legs, as he ran for 173 yards and two TDs on the season. In the passing game, he has thrown for 753 yards and six TDs. Meanwhile, Smelley has thrown for 1,743 yards and 13 TDs.
The South Carolina defense will try to keep Hawkeye All-American running back and Doak Walker Award winner Shonn Greene from taking over the game by himself. Greene, the nation's second-leading rusher, set a school record with 1,729 yards on the ground. He was the only player in the nation to eclipse 100 rushing yards in all 12 games.
Hawkeyes quarterback Ricky Stanzi emerged after splitting snaps the first four games. He threw for just over 1,800 yards and 13 touchdowns on the season, averaging 151 ypg.
Spurrier & Company are expecting a big Gamecock crowd to follow the team down to warm and sunny Tampa and root them on here. South Carolina will certainly be looking for some redemption following their 2-game debacle to end the season. We often look to play ON a team with at least some pride off a horrible performance. A team that has hit a new low with an awful showing will be determined to get rid of the bitter taste and bad press. When the players openly admit to being embarrassed by the result of their last effort, expect their best effort next time out.
We also like to play ON a Bowl team that played a tougher schedule during the regular season. They may be under-valued, while an opponent that racked up wins against in inferior schedule may be over-rated. Here, we have a South Carolina team that played the 15th-hardest schedule while Iowa went up against the 53rd-hardest slate.
Numerous Bowl POWER SYSTEMS also indicate a play ON the Gamecocks.
First, bowl favorites and smaller underdogs have been under-valued coming off 2 road defeats, as South Carolina is. This simple POWER SYSTEM states:
Play ON a Bowl team (not an underdog of 11+ points) off 2 road SU losses.
Under those basic parameters, teams are at least 13-0 ATS, as the situation is perfect through the entire history of the NCAA Football SportsDataBase back to 1980, including 1-0 this Bowl season.
Another POWER SYSTEM reads:
Play ON a Bowl underdog with 25+ days rest off 2 ATS losses of 14+ points.
Since 1984, these teams are 12-0 ATS, beating the spread by double digits.
Even teams that allowed 50+ points in one of their final 2 games, have done well when undervalued. Specifically:
Play ON a Bowl underdog of more than 3 points with less than 36 days rest off allowing 50+ points in its last game or game before that vs. an opponent not off a Conference Championship favorite SU & ATS win.
In another situation that has been perfect since at least 1980 and is 1-0 this Bowl season, such underdogs are 11-0 ATS.
In one of our stronger Bowl POWER SYSTEMS:
Play ON a SEC/SEC opponent Bowl underdog of more than 2 points with less than 50 days rest vs. a BCS-Conference opponent not off a conference SU loss as an underdog of less than 10 points.
With Vanderbilt and LSU both pulling upset victories on New Year’s Eve (as we forecasted in our STAR SELECTIONS), these teams are now 17-0 ATS just since 2004!
As for Iowa, we like to play AGAINST a team that is over-valued by the pointspread according to the home/road dichotomy. We test the accuracy of a line by switching the home and away teams and giving the new “visitor” 6 points for the switch of home field advantage. If the new, hypothetical line would obviously be off of what it would be in reality, the public is most likely over-reacting to recent form of one or both teams. In this case, with Iowa favored by 4 points at a neutral site, it means the Hawkeyes would be favored by about a point if the game were at South Carolina. Our Power Ratings indicate that line and this one are off.
We also like to play AGAINST a team that has already won its biggest game of the season and can’t accomplish much more with a Bowl victory. Teams that have already had a moment that’s defined their season will likely be flat for a Bowl game, especially if favored. The classic example would be a team that pulled off an upset win over a rival in their last game or late in the season. If they can’t win the national championship or make another major statement in their Bowl game, the team will have little motivation. Near the end of the season, the Hawkeyes beat Penn State by 1 point. That was the only loss on the year for the Nittany Lions and kept them out of the National Championship Game, so it will be hard for Iowa to duplicate that intensity and effort here.
Looking at some more numbers, the Hawkeyes are 0-6 ATS (-15.5 ppg) as a favorite away from home off scoring more than 24 points the past 3 seasons, including a Bowl SU & ATS loss to the Gators in a Florida Bowl, 0-7 ATS (-12.6 ppg) as a Bowl favorite with 35+ days rest, 0-7-0 (-8.9 ppg) in Bowl Games and not an underdog of more than 3 points off a SU win, and 0-2 SU & ATS as a favorite vs. the SEC since 1980.
Meanwhile, South Carolina is 2-0 SU & ATS vs. the Big 10 since 1990, both Bowl Game wins over Ohio State, and 4-0 SU & ATS in Bowl Games since 1990 when not facing a team off an underdog SU loss.
South Carolina should win this game if they simply play smart. Iowa’s offense has been solid against the mediocre, but South Carolina’s defense, especially with time to heal and time to prepare, is hardly average. We look for the Gamecocks to be very motivated here to become the only team to hold the Hawkeyes’ star RB under 100 yards this season, and should enjoy a comfortable win in the process.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: SOUTH CAROLINA 28 IOWA 9
4 STAR SELECTION
Penn State +9½ over USC
The 95th Rose Bowl boasts one of the better matchups of this postseason, as the fifth-ranked Trojans take on the sixth-ranked Nittany Lions in a rematch of the very first Rose Bowl game played at the current Pasadena stadium back in 1923.
USC had to fight its way to the top of the Pac-10 standings following an early 27-21 loss to a surprising Oregon State team. The Trojans, under the guidance of eighth-year head coach Pete Carroll, rebounded by winning nine straight to close the campaign and claimed their seventh consecutive Pac-10 title.
The Trojans are now playing in their fourth consecutive Rose Bowl and have appeared in a BCS game in each of the past seven years.
Not to be outdone, Penn State brings in its own legacy of postseason success, currently laying claim to the nation's #2 bowl winning percentage at .675%. The Nittany Lions also own an 11-1 record this year and are fresh off their third Big Ten title.
Legendary head coach Joe Paterno is the all-time leader in bowl wins at 23 and appearances with 35.
Penn State is making its first Rose Bowl appearance since 1995 when the Lions rolled over Oregon, 38-20, to cap an undefeated season.
USC boasts a balanced offensive attack, averaging 206 ypg on the ground and 247 ypg through the air. As a result, the Trojans are lighting up the scoreboard to the tune of almost 38 ppg. The team is led by All-Pac-10 QB Mark Sanchez, who is the league's leader in passing efficiency and total offense. Sanchez threw for nearly 2,800 yards, 30 TDs and 10 INTs during the regular season.
Offensive Coordinator Steve Sarkisian will be coaching his final game at USC after being tabbed as Washington's next head coach.
USC has guys in the backfield like Joe McKnight, Stafon Johnson, and C.J. Gable who get the call, and all three have gone over 1,000 yards in their respective careers.
The Trojans have performed even better on defense this year, allowing a mere 7.8 ppg on only 206 total ypg, both of which are tops in the nation.
Hoping to counter that aggressive defense will be the Penn State offense, led by QB Daryll Clark and a slew of talented skill players and one of the best front lines in the Big Ten. Clark hit the mark on 60% of his throws for 2,319 yards with 17 TDs and only four INTs during the regular season. As productive as the USC receivers have been, the Nittany Lions are every bit as good with the trio of Deon Butler, Derrick Williams and Jordan Norwood combining for more than 120 grabs, 1,700 yards and 15 TDs. Williams is also a threat in the return game as he has brought back one kick this season for a score, and has done several times in his career.
Penn State owns the nation's 11th-best scoring average at 40 ppg, and like USC utilizes a balanced attack consisting of 212 ypg rushing and 241 ypg passing. Running back Evan Royster has been a workhorse this year, logging 185 carries for just over 1,200 yards and 12 TDs, while averaging a stellar 6.5 ypc.
Foes have generated just 12 points and 264 total yards per contest against Penn State this season - both of which rank in the top five nationally. The Lions give up fewer than 100 ypg rushing and only 168 ypg through the air.
This game will likely come down to which team makes fewer mistakes, and which is able to capitalize on the miscues of the other. Both are disciplined and play extremely well in all facets so we expect to see the outcome decided late in the fourth quarter, or possibly beyond.
While everyone talks about USC’s deserving defense, it seems the Nittany Lions stop unit has flown under the radar a bit, but we look for them to be the main reason Penn State keeps this game close throughout.
One of our college football handicapping strategies is to play ON an underdog that is allowing less than 3 yards per rush on the season from October on. The Nittany Lions certainly fit the bill here.
In a Bowl battle of 1-loss teams, the underdog has done exceptionally well as shown by a POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play ON a Bowl underdog with exactly 1 SU loss vs. an opponent with exactly 1 SU loss not off a home SU win of more than 21 points as a favorite of more than 16 points.
Since the start of the college football SportsDataBase in 1980, these teams are 15-0 ATS, while covering the spread by nearly 11 ppg.
Another POWER SYSTEM that Penn State qualifies for reads:
Play ON a Bowl underdog of more than 1 point with less than 3 season SU losses off a SU win of 14+ points.
Just since 2003, these teams are 9-0 ATS, beating the spread by better than 9 ppg on average.
Our database research has uncovered yet another POWER SYSTEM that the Nittany Lions are active for, this time due to their defensive efforts on the season, as they did not allow more than 24 points in any single game. This POWER SYSTEM states:
Play ON a Bowl underdog of 6+ points with 0 season games allowing 29+ points vs. an opponent not off an ATS win as a favorite of more than 28 points in its last game.
Since 1990, these teams are 10-0 ATS, which is a decent number; however, the mind-boggling aspect of this system is that the qualifying teams have covered the spread by nearly TWENTY points per game.
There is no question that Penn State can’t wait to step on the field as a big underdog and prove themselves here in the Rose Bowl. On the other hand, the Trojans are saying the right things, but their body language suggests a feeling of “been there, done that” about this game. In a recent press gathering, the Penn State players marched into a hotel ballroom with strides steady and faces tight. The USC players swaggered in with yawns and chuckles. The Nittany Lions spent Tuesday's media session sitting upright, quiet, attentive. The Trojans lounged. Some buried their heads in their hands and slept. Some talked on cellphones. Others bounced to iPods. One player spent nearly the entire session stretched out on the floor underneath his table. A couple of others used their hands to pound out rhythms on top of the table.
If media day was any indication - and it usually is – USC looks bored and uninspired. One thing for certain is, Penn State is neither. This fits right into a handicapping strategy of ours that says to play AGAINST a team with a coach or players displaying negative body language in contradiction to their “positive” words. What a coach or player says to the press can have very little to do with what he actually thinks. Body language and immediate reaction to questions are much more revealing than the words that come out of his mouth.
Teams like USC that were very strong defensively in the second half of the season have not been able to carry that over to success as favorites in Bowl Games. This is documented by a POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play AGAINST a Bowl favorite of more than 2 points off allowing less than 62 combined points in its last 6 games.
With TCU failing to cover the spread in their win over Boise State, these teams are now 0-9 ATS since 1992.
Early on, we look for the defenses to be strong. Late, the offenses should make some plays and put some points on the board. Penn State should have the spread covered the entire game, as we don’t see them falling behind by double digits at any point. They should give USC everything they can handle, as Joe Paterno will have his troops ready to go. At some point the Trojans will wake up. It may be in time to salvage a win, but just barely.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: USC 27 PENN STATE 24 (OT)
2 STAR SELECTION
Cincinnati -2 over Virginia Tech
The final Bowl Game on New Year's Day will feature the Bearcats and the Hokies from South Florida.
Cincinnati will be playing in its first January 1st Bowl since 1951. They got here by posting a remarkable 11-2 overall record, while capturing their first-ever Big East title and subsequent BCS Bowl bid. Brian Kelly was named the Big East Coach of the Year as a result.
The 2008 season was one to remember for Cincinnati, which closed the year with six consecutive wins, including big wins over Big East powerhouses West Virginia, Louisville and Pittsburgh in a three week span in November.
Cincinnati is playing in its 11th bowl game all-time and has been solid in the postseason of late, winning three straight bowl games, including last year's 31-21 decision over Southern Miss in the Papajohns.com Bowl.
Frank Beamer's Hokies are no stranger to the postseason and major bowl games for that matter, as the team has played in three Sugar Bowls and two previous Orange Bowls. This will be the second straight appearance in the Orange Bowl, as Tech dropped a 24-21 decision to Kansas in last year's event.
The Hokies repeated as ACC Champion this season thanks to a 5-3 ledger in conference play. Virginia Tech won three of its last four regular season games to capture the Coastal Division title and then topped Boston College in the ACC Title Game to cap off a tough season in Blacksburg with another trip to the Orange Bowl.
The Bearcats' ascension to the top of the Big East was a bit of a surprise, considering injuries turned the quarterback position into a revolving door. First, Ben Mauk's appeal for another year was denied, leaving the position to former starter Dustin Grutza. The veteran signal-caller went down early with a broken leg and was replaced by Tony Pike, who subsequently went down to injury himself. Chazz Anderson, got a couple starts in relief as well, but the team was no worse for the wear, as Cincinnati managed to average a solid 254 yards passing when all was said and done. Grutza and Pike are both healed enough to play in the bowl game and both may see time under center.
The ground game plays second fiddle on this team, with Cincinnati averaging 121 yards per game, on a mediocre 3.6 yards per carry.
Cincinnati did a solid job defensively this year, especially against some of the Big East's best offenses. The Bearcats limited foes to a meager 315 total yards, holding opponents to 103 yards rushing and 212 yards passing. In addition, the team allowed the opposition to convert just 30 percent of the time on third down, while recording 36 sacks and forcing 21 turnovers, including 16 interceptions.
The Hokies have had their misfortunes under center this season and neither Tyrod Taylor nor Sean Glennon have played particularly well overall. The pair have combined for just over 1,600 yards passing, with five TD passes and 11 interceptions. Taylor gets the nod to start the bowl game, as he is the more athletic of the two signal-callers, ranking second on the team in rushing this year with 691 yards and six TDs. The real workhorse in the backfield though is young tailback Darren Evans, who has showed flashes of brilliance this year, en route to 1,112 yards rushing and 10 TDs.
The Hokies have long been a defensive-led program and 2008 was no different, as Virginia Tech finished among the nation's elite squads, giving up less than 18 ppg, on 277 yards of total offense. The team had equal disdain for the run and the pass and really made its mark recording big plays, with 34 sacks and 30 takeaways.
The ACC has been cursed in BCS games of late, dropping eight straight major bowl games. The conference's last win came in the 1999 national championship game, as ironically, Florida State topped Virginia Tech (then part of the Big East). In a close call, we look for the ACC’s poor fortunes to continue.
While Cincinnati is getting healthy, the Hokies are losing players left and right. Bearcats senior DB Mike Mickens, who suffered a torn meniscus in his left knee in late November, is expected to play. Senior WR Dominick Goodman suffered a separated left shoulder on the first play from scrimmage at Hawaii. He left the game and did not return, but is expected to play here in the Orange Bowl.
On the other hand, the Hokies will have to play this game without two of its defensive standouts and a starting offensive lineman.
Despite not playing in a Conference Championship Game, Bowl teams have done very well at the right price against foes off a Conference Championship Game victory. Cincinnati qualifies for this Bowl POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play ON a Bowl team (not a favorite of 7+ points or underdog of 9+ points) with less than 50 days rest and not off a Conference Championship Game vs. an opponent off a Conference Championship SU win.
Just since 2003, these teams are 10-0 ATS, while beating the spread by more than 2 TDs per game on average.
Favorites and underdogs of less than 13 points with more than 3 season losses have had little business being in a January Bowl game against an opponent with less than 3 season defeats under the conditions described by another POWER SYSTEM. This one reads:
Play AGAINST a January Bowl team (not an underdog of 13+ points) with 4+ season SU losses and not off a Conference Championship SU loss vs. an opponent with less than 3 season SU losses and not off a conference favorite SU & ATS win.
Perfect since at least 1980, these teams are 0-10 SU & ATS, losing outright by 22 points per game and failing to cover the spread by more than 16 ppg on average.
Ultimately, Cincinnati is in the same position Kansas was a year ago, universally underappreciated despite winning 11 games. The Bearcats will use that lack of respect to their advantage, handing Virginia Tech their fourth straight BCS bowl loss. While the defenses and special teams will take center stage in a physical game, the difference will be the Bearcat passing game. With a month to prepare, HC Kelly will have QB Pike ready to make a play or two downfield to soften up the Hokie “D” and put Cincy in range for the winning points. The Orange Bowl still won’t be a thing of beauty, but it should get a competitive game that isn’t decided until late in the final quarter, and we give the Bearcats the edge for a SU & ATS win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: CINCINNATI 28 VIRGINIA TECH 24