Simi Sports Formula
Top 20 Penn St
my apologies sorry
MARC LAWRENCE
5-2 L7 Bowls
100% Perfect Orange Bowl Beauty
VIRGINIA TECH vs CINCINNATI
Pick: VIRGINIA TECH +2.5
The Orange Bowl Thursday night is the setting for a showdown between the champs of the Big East (Cincinnati) and the ACC (Virginia Tech). The Bearcats have won 6 games in a row and head coach Brian Kelly is on everyone’s short list for a new hire in 2010. We don’t like the fact that they have surrendered 20 or more points in 4 of their final 5 games. That’s because Frank Beamer is 34-13 ATS as a head coach with Virginia Tech in games in which his team scores 20 or more points as an underdog, including 14-3 ATS against an .850 or greater opponent. The Hokies lost to Kansas as 3-point favorites in the Orange Bowl last year, making them an avenging bowl-returning dog. Toss in Beamer’s 4-0 ATS mark as a dog of 6 or fewer points off a SU and ATS win when taking on teams from the Big East and you can understand our admiration for the Techsters. After all, we have an affinity for bowl dogs with better defenses, especially those looking to make amends. Our database cements it with this play that tells us to: Play On any sub .700 ACC bowl dog of 5 or less points if the scored 10 or more points in their last game. That's because these teams are 12-2 SU and 13-1 ATS, including 11-0 ATS if the dog did not toss a shutout in its last game. Take the points with the Hokies.
DAVE MALINSKY
6* Georgia
4* USC
4* Alabama
PPP
GOY Georgia
Indiancowboy
5* Total of the Year on Michigan State/UGA Over
Jim Feist
Platinum
Clemson
Va Tech
DISCOUNT SPORTS
10* Virginia Tech/Cincinnati OVER 41.5
Gameday
5* Georgia
3* South Carolina
2* Nebraska
2* USC
THE BAGMAN
2000* Clemson -2
2000* Michigan State +8
2000* Penn State +8
2000* Cincinnati -2.5
Dr Bob
3 Star Selection
***Cincinnati (-2.0) 24 Virginia Tech 14 (at Orange Bowl )
Cincinnati's only two losses this year were at Oklahoma and at Connecticut when they were -6 in turnover margin with their 3rd string quarterback at the controls. The Bearcats beat 5 teams headed for a bowl game and they are clearly a better team than Virginia Tech. The Hokies somehow managed to go 9-4 and out-score their opponents by an average of 22.2 to 17.5 points despite being out-gained 4.6 yards per play to 5.0 yppl. I doubt that Frank Beamer's club will be able to overcome their offensive deficiencies in this game against a quality opponent. Virginia Tech was a modest 5-4 against other bowl teams (Cincinnati was 5-2 against bowl teams) and they simply don't stack up well against the Bearcats.
Virginia Tech's offense is a bit better with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, as his running ability (776 yards on 117 rushing plays) is the only positive thing about a Hokies offense with a bad offensive line (2.9 sacks allowed per game), bad running backs (3.9 ypr) and a bad pass attack (Taylor averaged just 4.8 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback). Virginia Tech was 0.7 yppl worse than average offensively this season (4.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and they are 0.6 yppl worse than average when Taylor is in the game. I don't see that unit having much success against a consistently good Cincinnati defense that allowed 5.1 yppl in every game they played this season other than their visit against Oklahoma's top rated offense. Even with the Oklahoma game included the Bearcats allowed just 4.7 yppl in 12 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average stop unit. Even the absence of starting cornerback Mike Mickens the final 3 games of the regular season (he's questionable for this game) did not keep the Bearcats from playing well defensively (they were actually slightly better without Mickens in those 3 games). The only comparable defense that Virginia Tech faced this season was in their two games against Boston College, in which the Hokies gained 240 yards at 3.7 yppl in week 8 and 251 yards at 3.6 yppl in the ACC Championship game (so don't be fooled by the 53 points they scored in those two games). I expect the Hokies to score between 10 and 17 points against Cincy's great defense.
Virginia Tech is even better defensively than their season numbers (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl) suggest, as the Hokies improved dramatically coinciding with a change in the lineup starting week 6. From week 6 on the Hokies yielded just 4.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team, so they are 0.7 yppl better than average defensively. Cincinnati's offense was forced to use 3 different starting quarterbacks this season, as starter Dustin Grutza was injured in the team's second game and backup Tony Pike broke his non-throwing arm a few weeks later. Third string quarterback Chazz Anderson was horrible (5.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback), but Pike returned to the starting role after the loss to U Conn and led the team on a 6 game win streak to end the season. Pike was 0.4 yppp better than average and is unbeaten as a starter this season, including 4 wins over bowl teams, but original starter Dustin Grutza posted better compensated numbers (8.3 yppp against teams that would combine to allow 6.2 yppp) and may get the start here with Pike listed as questionable after being knocked out the Hawaii victory – a comeback victory that was engineered by Grutza. I'll assume Pike will start just to be conservative (since Grutza would probably be better) and Cincy rates at 0.3 yppl better than average defensively – which puts them at a 0.4 yppl disadvantage against the Virginia Tech defense. However, the Bearcats have a huge 1.5 yppl advantage over the Hokies' offense in this game.
Cincinnati's scoring margin (+5.0 points per game in 1A games) wasn't as impressive as their yardage stats because the Bearcats were unlucky to be -10 in fumbles lost margin in their 12 games against Division 1A teams, which is something that is not likely to continue to be a problem given that fumbles are 90% random in college football. In addition to being a better team from the line of scrimmage, the Bearcats are one team that has an advantage over Virginia Tech in special teams. The Hokies' special teams reputation is actually better than their reality this season, as they were a bad punting team (33.0 net avg., compared to 34.0 net for their opponents) and they barely had an edge in average yard line after kickoffs (28.9 yard line to 28.7 ydl for their opponents). Cincinnati, meanwhile, had one of the best net punting average in the nation (41.5 yrds, 41.2 net in 1A games) while their opponents had a net punt of 35.4 yards. Cincy also has a great kick returner in Mardy Gilyard and their average starting yard line on kickoff was the 33.7 yard line while their opponents started at the 24.2 yard line on average after their kickoffs.
So, Cincinnati is a much better team from the line of scrimmage and better in special teams and my math model favors the Bearcats by 9 points in this game. Cincy also applies to a solid 50-19-1 ATS bowl situation and I'll take Cincinnati in a 3-Star Best Bet at -2 ½ points or less and for 2-Stars at -3 points (up to -1.20 odds). I'll also lean with the under at 41 points or higher
Frank Patron
10000 unit bowl double play
USC Trojans -9
Va Tech Hokies -2.5
Teddy June Guaranteed Selections
10* Private Players Club Selection is the Penn State Nittany Lions/USC Trojans Under
Accupicks
4* Florida Atlantic
Nelly
All 1 unit
GEORGIA BULLDOGS (-7.5)
Penn State Nittany Lions (+9)
Virginia Tech Hokies (+2.5)