Wunderdog
Game: Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
Pick: 3 units Pittsburgh +194
This line is very inflated because the Brewers have a vested interest in the outcome as it pertains to their wildcard tie with the falling Mets. It is hard to lay two-to-one odds on a pitcher that has been on the shelf since May 1, in Yovani Gallardo. That means a lot of innings for a pen that has blown 26 saves already this season. The Brewers have been shaky down the stretch with just seven wins in their last 22 games. Zach Duke has underachieved all season, but he has been very solid in three of his last four starts, where he has allowed two runs or less. Duke keeps the Pirates in the game, then it is roll the dice, and at two-to-one odds I'll stand behind the Pirates.
Game: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
Pick: 3 units Minnesota -144
The noose is tightening around the necks of the White Sox as their lead is down to just a half game over the Twins. The Twins have taken the first two games and are playing loose and free. This is the pivotal game. If the Twins lose they are two back with three to play. The White Sox are 10 games under .500 on the road while the Twins are 25 over at home, but barely over .500 against right hand pitching. Kevin Slowey has been a full 1.5 runs better at home, 3.04 vs. his road ERA of 4.52, and the Twins are now 7-1 in his last eight home starts. Gavin Floyd has a road ERA of over four, and the Pale Hose are just 7-7 in his last 14 road starts. Minnesota has been 32-10 over their last 42 at home, and I like them to take over first place in the AL Central with the win here.
Game: San Diego at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: 3 units Los Angeles Dodgers -116
The only thing holding this moneyline down is Jake Peavy. It certainly isn't the way the Padres are hitting and winning as they are close to 100 losses on the season, and have been out-scored 22-5 in the first two games here. The fact is that Peavy has been poor on the road with a sub-par 4.20 ERA, so not even close to the same pitcher, and the Padres have been no better off with him on the mound anyway as they are 8-15 in his last 23 starts. The Dodgers are hot and 18-5 in their last 23, so I'll back them here.
Game: Los Angeles Angels at Seattle
Pick: 3 units Los Angeles Angels -113
I am still not sure what the books are thinking here, but I'll keep playing the value. The M's have reached the century mark in losses, and Los Angeles is fast approaching 100 wins, but the lines keep showing something different. The Angels are still playing meaningful games, to secure home field throughout the playoffs, so while the pennant race lines are -200 or more everyday, these lines are issued like LA is not going to show up. Well they have shown up enough to win 11 of their last 14, while leading the division by 20 games, and two of three here. There just isn't anything more that needs to be said, but Seattle against half the Angels’ regulars is not close to even money here, going Angels in this one.
BEN BURNS
THURSDAY GAME OF THE MONTH
I'm taking the points with OREGON STATE. As usual, USC has another excellent team. That being said, asking them to win a nationally televised conference road game by more than three touchdowns is asking an awful lot. In fact, this is the first time since 2006 that the Trojans have been asked to lay more than three touchdowns on the road and only the third time in their last 20 road games overall. Yes, the Trojans have looked good thus far. They went on the road and pounded a rebuilding Virginia team and then came home and did the same thing to a strong Ohio State squad. That big victory should have the Trojans patting themselves on the back a bit, as they read all the press-clippings about how great they are. Off that big win and with a "revenge" game vs. Oregon on deck, I feel that this will be a difficult scheduling spot. This is Week 5 of the schedule and if we look back at the last couple of years, we find that the Trojans have really struggled at this time. Last season, they got off to a great start, winning their first three games by double-digits. They won those games by 28, 18 and 33 points. They were ranked #1 when they visited Washington in Week 5. That was their conference road opener and they were laying nearly three touchdowns. Sound familiar? Yet, while everyone was expecting another blowout, the Trojans struggled and won by only three points. The Trojans also failed to cover in their conference road opener in 2006. Additionally, they failed to cover in Week 5 that year. Overall, the Trojans are a money-burning 1-8 ATS in Week 5 through Week 9 the past two years. Note that Riley's Beavers were 6-3 ATS during the same stretch. It's true that USC has had the benefit of a bye week to prepare. However, the same can also be said for Oregon State. While he hasn't had the talent to work with that Pete Carroll has had at USC, Mike Riley is also an excellent coach. Note that Riley's Beavers were 3-0 SU/ATS when coming off a bye week the last two seasons. Looking back further and we find Oregon State at an outstanding 16-7-1 ATS it's last 24 games when coming off a bye. The Beavers come in with a 1-2 record. They lost a winnable game on Opening Night, falling by eight points at Stanford. That result has given us some added value as a lot of the betting public lost with the Beavers in that game (or at least watched them) and are now unwilling to back them and/or believe that they are a really bad team. However, as already mentioned, winning a nationally televised conference road game is no easy task. Additionally, strange things can happen in Week 1 - just ask last year's Michigan team. My point is that I'm willing to forgive the Beavers for the Week 1 loss. I'm also willing to look past the Week 2 loss. That's because that game also came on the road and was against a very strong Penn State team. Their lone home game, which came prior to the bye, saw the Beavers put it all together as they crushed Hawaii, 45-7. The Beavers have been great at home in recent years and they upset USC (Trojans were ranked #1 at the time) the last time these teams played here. The Trojans will get their points but I look for the Beavers to also score, keeping this game much closer than expected and hanging within the inflated number. *Thursday Night GOM
I'm taking the points with SMU. I won with Tulane a couple of weeks ago when the Green Wave were hosting East Carolina. I felt that the line on the Pirates was too high and that the teams were more evenly matched than was reflected in the line. I feel the same way about this evening's game, only this time I believe that it's Tulane which has become over-valued. That has happened due to the Green Wave coming off their first victory (vs. UL-Monroe) and having gone 3-0 ATS. Give them credit for being competitive. However, a closer look shows that the lone victory came by 14 points and the Green Wave lost the other two games. Granted, those games both came against really good teams. Still, my point is that they haven't won a game by more than two touchdowns yet and I feel that this spread is too high. Keep in mind that Tulane is only averaging 18 points per game and has yet to even score more than 24 in a single game. It's also worth noting that Tulane was a money-burning 5-11-1 ATS (5-12 SU) in Conference play the past two seasons. The other reason for the high number is that the Mustangs have been blown out in each of their past two games. However, let's also keep in mind that both those games came against a pair of very powerful teams (TCU and Texas Tech) which are both currently ranked in the Top 25 and which have a combined record of 8-0. In other words, Tulane represents a significant step down in class from either of those Texas based power-houses. I believe that these teams are far more evenly matched than the pointspread indicates. Looking back to last year and we find that it was SMU which was a -6.5 point home favorite. Tulane got an absolutely massive game from running back Matt Forte (CUSA record 342 yards!) and scored a 41-34 upset in overtime. Fortunately for the Mustangs, Forte is finished school now. While Tulane lost it's offensive star, the Mustangs brought in a proven winner in coach June Jones, who recently had plenty of success at Hawaii. Jones knows that a victory here would have his team right back where they should be and he desperately wants to avoid a third straight blowout loss. The Mustangs won by five points (33-28) here in 2006 and I look for these teams to play a third straight close game tonight. *Annihilator
DOC'S
3 Unit Play. Take Florida over Washington
The Fish are a much better team then the Nationals and still have visions of finishing the season ten games over the .500 mark. Their manager has already said that they will play to win in the last four games of the season and that bodes well. This is the game that National fans have been waiting for since with a loss they will reach triple digits on the 2008 season. They are on the road after this so tonight is their only chance to accomplish this milestone at home. Both of tonight’s pitchers are bad and thus expect a lot of runs and we will side with the better offensive unit
3 Unit Play. Take Over in SMU @ Tulsa
June Jones has not had much success since taking over the Mustangs but his pass happy offense creates a lot of scoring since the clock stops early and often. All four of SMU’s games have gone over the posted number in this game and that is why the best bet lies with the over. In fact the SMU defense is giving up over 45 points per game and that alone can almost allow us to collect this ticket. Tulane is a big favorite in this game and is ready to blowout a weaker opponent after playing a brutal schedule to open the season with games against Alabama and East Carolina. We will not worry if they can cover this inflated line and just collect with the OVER.
Insiders Sports Network Guaranteed Selections
INSDERS NETWORK BASEBALL PLAY OF THE YEAR
Chicago Cubs w/Harden -120
Trace Adams
1500* - Southern Cal Trojans
Possible "lull" spot for the Trojans who haven't played since drilling Ohio State 35-3, while Oregon State comes into this big home date with a confidence-building 45-7 rout of Hawaii.
It should also be noted that USC hasn't had it easy on their trips to Corvallis, as they have lost 2 of their last 3 trips there outright, and have failed ALL 3 against the spread.
Still, with no threat of imclement weather forecasted, I can't see how the Beavers who did lose to Penn State by a 45-14 count stay with this Trojans team.
I feel sure Pete Carroll will not need to remind his team of the past troubles they have had played at Corvallis, and I expect the Trojan "D" to make life miserable for whoever is under center for State tonight.
Throw in the fact the Beavers have a very young defense, and Mark Sanchez and his mates should eventually pull away and cover this big number.
Yes, this is a lot of points on the road, but SC has covered 6 of their last 7 on the highway, including their 52-7 pasting of Virginia earlier this year.
Lay the lumber!
1500♦ - Southern Cal Trojans
500* - Florida w/Sanchez over Balester
The Marlins snapped a 4-game slide with the win last night, as the Nats have now lost 6 of their last 7 games.
Florida is now 7-1 in games played in DC this year, and 14-3 overall in the season series, and I just don't see them losing in this spot.
Sanchez is 1-0 in his 2 starts against the Nationals, while Balester is fresh off 5 innings of 5 run ball in a home no decision against San Diego.
Lay the small road chalk on Florida based on the dominant season series numbers they sport against Washington this year.
500♦ - Florida w/Sanchez over Balester
Indiancowboy
USC / Oregon St Under 52.5 (POD)
LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT
Blow Out Special - Tulane
Oregon St
ATS Lock
4 units Oregon St +25
Wayne Root
Chairman- Oregon St
Millionaire- NY Mets
PlusLineSports
Cleveland vs Boston
Boston -1.5
Bob Balfe
SMU +18 over Tulane
Tulane is a very underrated program, but I don't think they should be heavy favorites at this margin over anybody just yet. Tulane is also 3-0 against the spread this season and everyone saw how well they played against Alabama and ECU. Tulane clearly is the better team and at home should get the win, but June Jones is one heck of a coach and the SMU team fits the same system that the Hawaii offense did under Jones for some many years. Tulane has done a great job at getting pressure on the quarterback, but tonight it will be very difficult because SMU gets rid of the ball so fast. The betting public is all over Tulane. Look for SMU to cover the spread.
Major League Baseball
Pirates +190 over Brewers
Savannah Sports
2 units on SMU/Tulane over 49
Northcoast Marquee
SMU +18
Oregon St +25
Jeff Scott Sports
THURSDAY/ FRIDAY
5 UNIT PLAY (Game Of The Month)
LOUISVILLE -3.5 over Connecticut
The Huskies are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, while the 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 weekday conf home games. UConn may be 4-0 on the year, but they have been inconsistent a little as they needed OT to beat Temple and even though they won by 3 over Baylor last week, they were outgained in the game. Louisville started off the season on a sour note with a 27-2 loss to Kentucky, but this team has responded nicely with two impressive wins. Not only have they outscored their last 2 opponents (Tenn Tech and Kansas St) by 25 ppg, but they have also outgained those two opponents by a combined 509 yards. The Huskies defense had been playing well through the first 3 games, but last week they showed some chinks in the armor, as they allowed Baylor to roll up 377 yards of offense and 28 points. The Cardinal offense may be better than Baylor's. UConn is mainly a run oriented team as they are ranked 6th in the nation in rushing, but they could find the going tough vs the nations 2nd ranked rushing defense, meaning they will have to turn to their 108th ranked passing offense to win this one. Noot gonna happen. The Cardinals are playing much better on both sides of the ball right now and I can see them easily winning by 10+ points in this one.
3 UNIT PLAY
TULANE -18 over SMU
Tulane is 11-1 ATS as favs off a non-conference opponent vs an opponent off a SU loss and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game, while the Mustangs are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game, plus the Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. June Jones has a lot of work to do with teh Ponies this year as evidenced by their horrid 1-3 starts that has seen them being outscored by 23.8 ppg. Their lone win on the year was not even pretty as they allowed an FCS team, Texas State, to outgaine them by 34 yards, and put up 36 points despite commiting 5 TO's. This SMU defense is trully horrible. Tonight they take on a Tulane offense that hasn't been spectacular this year, but they are ranked 39th in the nation in passing and they are taking on the 155th ranked passing offense, plus if Texas State can put 36 points on the board vs the Ponies then Tulane should be able to put 40+ on the board in this one. SMU is a pass happy team and they have the 18th ranked passing offense ion the nation, but tonight they will be taking on a Tulane defense that is ranked 8th in total defense and 12th in passing defense. I don't SMU putting nearly enough points on the board to stay with a Tulane team that is looking for an easy blowout win.
2 UNIT PLAY
TULANE/ SMU Over 49.5
Tulane has the 39th ranked passing offense and is going up against the 115th ranked passing defense. SMU hasn't been scoring much, but this is a June Jones offense and they do have the 18th ranked passing offense in the nation, so look for the points to start coming any time now. Even if they don't get a bunch tonight I still think they are more than capable of 10 to 14 points, while the horrendous defense should yield 40+. Also this game will probabl;y feature more passing than running and that means a alot of clock stoppages. I see a game in the high 50's here.
1 UNIT PLAYS
OREGON STATE +25 over USC
Under HC Pete Carroll, the Men of Troy have not beaten the Beavers by more than 24 points and they are just 1-1 in Corvallis, with their only win coming by 8 points. The Beaver have not gotten off to a great start, but they were only outgained by 112 yards in the 31 point loss to Penn State and they outgained Stanford by 189 yards, despite losing the game by 8. USC has been impressive on both sides of the ball this year, but this has been a tough place for them to play as they are 0-3 ATS their last 3 trips here and I see The Beavers to come up with enough plays to keep this one under 3 TD's. Oregon State is 5-1 ATS as home dogs vs Top 10 teams, while the Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Pac-10 road openers.
USC/ Oregon State Under 52.5
Gonna go against the Cheat Sheet in this one. It worked last night with the Twins, so we'll see here. The Under is 15-3 in the Trojans last 18 Pac-10 games and 13-2 in their last 15 away games off 2 straight wins by 21 or more, while the Under is 8-2-1 in Beavers last 11 games following a bye week and 4-1 in their last 5 home games. The last 6 between these two has averaged 45 ppg. I think this game will have more defense than expected. I see a final of maybe 30-10.
Anton Wins
2 units Southern Cal/Oregon State Over 52
Accu-Picks
4* Milw -1.5
4* Hst -1.5