Thursday Service Picks:

Michael Cannon Thursday Plays:

15 Dime –

BOISE STATE
Lay the points with Boise State tonight when they host Southern Miss.
The blue turf is one of the toughest venues to play on in all of college football, and this will be no exception for Southern Miss.
Boise State is 53-2 SU in its last 55 home games, and 39-17 ATS in its last 56 against the number.
Ian Johnson leads a Bronco rushing attack that averages 198.3 ypg, and the Boise State underrated offensive line should gradually take over as the game goes on, creating longer fields for Southern Miss when they do have to punt it away.
Southern Miss quarterback Jeremy Young is a dual threat, but he is also prone to turnovers, which will help keep the momentum on the Broncos’ side. This is also the Golden Eagles third-straight road game, so I don’t like their chances of matching the Broncos intensity for a full four quarters.
The Golden Eagles are 0-5 ATS as a road dog in the last two seasons and just 9-13 ATS since 2000. Southern Miss head coach Jeff Bower is 1-18-1 SU and 6-14 ATS when playing a non-conference foe on the road when stuck in the middle of Conference USA games.
Boise State is a sparkling 11-0 ATS when favored by 12 or less points!
Lay the points and collect as Boise State grabs the home win and cover.

5 Dime –

ARKANSAS STATE
Lay the points with Arkansas State over Memphis.
Memphis hits the road again after getting mauled by Central Florida last week. The Tigers trailed 49-0 before they finally scored in the fourth quarter and lost 56-20. Memphis last lost 11 of its last 13 games, with victories only against Utep in last year’s season finale and Division 1-AA Jackson State on September 15.
Arkansas State has already traveled to play against Texas and Tennessee this year and should be well equipped to handle the toothless Tigers.
The Indians have more balance and offense and should be able to move the ball at will against the Tigers. Despite the two aforementioned games against Texas and Tennessee, Arkansas State is actually outgaining their opponents by an average of 430-403 ypg.
Lay the points as Arkansas State wins and covers at home.

YANKEES
Take the Yankees for the road win over the Devil Rays.
I know Scott Kazmir is getting the start for Tampa Bay and he’s been brilliant lately, but he’s going against way too much firepower and determination in the Yankees.
The Yankees will send a pretty good young pitcher of their own in Phil Hughes to the mound. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA over his last four starts and has benefited from some awesome run support. The Yankees have scored 39 runs over that span, winning each game.
If the Yanks are going to have any hopes of winning the division, they know they must win out and I wouldn’t bet against them doing so.
Take the Yankees as they grab the road win.

SCOTT'S CFB THURSDAY NIGHT "Total" DOMINATOR

(101) So Miss vs (102) Boise St
Game Starts at September 27 2007 16:45 EST
Take under
I'm playing the UNDER between So. Miss. and Boise State. Everyone who thinks about the Broncos thinks about high-scoring offensive shootouts. But that's not been the case. Toss out the win over out-manned Weber State and the Broncos have combined for 34 points with Washington and 38 points in their 24-14 win over Wyoming. In fact, in their last eight September tilts, Boise State has played to the UNDER on seven occasions. They'll look to run the football in an attempt to control the line of scrimmage in this one. But that will play right into Southern Miss' stingy defensive hands. No less than eight starters return to HC Jeff Bower's defense. That's the most returning starters since the 2003 season when the Eagles allowed just 14.6 PPG in conference play. This one is obviously a non-conference matchup, but the low scoring outcome will be the same! Meanwhile, RB Damion Fletcher will get plenty of carries as is the case in most of Bower's road tilts throughout his 17 years at the helm. Fletcher is averaging 5.3 yards per pop and will look to bang away at Boise's small-ish defensive front. With both teams focusing on the ground attack, we'll take advantage of a public number and play the contest to stay UNDER the posted total. Thanks! GL! Scott

Guaranteed Pick: Robert Ross

Game: Southern Miss at Boise St. Sep 27 2007 7:45PM
Prediction: Boise St.
Reason: Tough travel spot for Southern Miss as it goes all the way across country to take on an unfamiliar foe after winning its conference opener. SOUTHERN MISS is 5-16 ATS off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival since 1992. BOISE ST is 19-8 ATS in home games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992 and 32-17 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992. Take Boise State!

Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness

Game: New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Devil Rays Sep 27 2007 7:10PM
Prediction: Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Reason: Of course there is no such thing as a lock but look at all the things working in the favor of the Devil Rays tonight. The Yankees scored seven runs in the fifth inning Wednesday night and cruised to a 12-4 victory (pounding out 18 hits), avoiding a third straight defeat. They also clinched a playoff spot for the 13th straight season, the longest active streak of postseason appearances in the majors (one shy of Atlanta's all-time record set from 1991-2005). It's been a long haul for the Yankees, who opened the season 21-29 but are 70-38 since. They've now reached the postseason in all 12 seasons under manager Joe Torre, who is in the final season of his contract and this may be his last year. Rookie Phil Hughes (4-3, 4.80 ERA) will take the mound for New York and while he has pitched well in the season's final month, going 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in four September starts (team is 4-0), he might not get much help. With a playoff spot secure but another division crown unlikely (Boston leads by three with four games left), the Yankees may choose to rest some of their weary veterans. Now let's check in on Tampa Bay. This will be the team's final home game of the '07 season and they'll start team ace, Scott Kazmir (13-9, 3.54 ERA). Kazmir's been excellent since the break, going 8-3 with a 2.45 ERA. With him on the mound, the pathetic Devil Rays turn into a competitive team. Note these numbers. With Kazmir starting, Tampa Bay went 13-11 (plus-$444) in '06 but just 48-90 (minus-$2,316) with another starting pitcher. The same is true this year. The D'Rays are 19-14 (plus-$614) in his starts, while going 65-93 (minus-$1,804) when it's someone else on the mound. Do the Yanks have any real motivation here? I think not. Conversely, the D'Rays close their season at home with the lefty Kazmir, facing a Yankee team that's 2-14 (minus-$1,830) vs left-handers on the season. MLB Game of the Year 20* TB Devil Rays.

Guaranteed Pick: Jimmy The Moose

Game: Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles Sep 27 2007 7:05PM
Prediction: over
Reason: With no pressure on them the Blue Jays bats have finally awakened. The over is a profitable 5-1 in their last 6 games and all 6 have been road games. The over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games played on grass. The over is 9-1-1 in Baltimore's last 11 games as a favorite. In their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record the over is 6-2. The over is a profitable 22-9 in Baltimore's last 31 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-1 in Guthrie's last 6 starts on grass. Baltimore has played the over in 6 of his last 8 starts. The last 4 meetings between the teams have played over the total. The teams have played the over in 5 of the last 6 meetings in Baltimore. Tonight's game will be another high-scoring game, play the over.

Ness 20 TV GAME OF THE YEAR MLB
Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness

Game: New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Devil Rays Sep 27 2007 7:10PM
Prediction: Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Reason: Of course there is no such thing as a lock but look at all the things working in the favor of the Devil Rays tonight. The Yankees scored seven runs in the fifth inning Wednesday night and cruised to a 12-4 victory (pounding out 18 hits), avoiding a third straight defeat. They also clinched a playoff spot for the 13th straight season, the longest active streak of postseason appearances in the majors (one shy of Atlanta's all-time record set from 1991-2005). It's been a long haul for the Yankees, who opened the season 21-29 but are 70-38 since. They've now reached the postseason in all 12 seasons under manager Joe Torre, who is in the final season of his contract and this may be his last year. Rookie Phil Hughes (4-3, 4.80 ERA) will take the mound for New York and while he has pitched well in the season's final month, going 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in four September starts (team is 4-0), he might not get much help. With a playoff spot secure but another division crown unlikely (Boston leads by three with four games left), the Yankees may choose to rest some of their weary veterans. Now let's check in on Tampa Bay. This will be the team's final home game of the '07 season and they'll start team ace, Scott Kazmir (13-9, 3.54 ERA). Kazmir's been excellent since the break, going 8-3 with a 2.45 ERA. With him on the mound, the pathetic Devil Rays turn into a competitive team. Note these numbers. With Kazmir starting, Tampa Bay went 13-11 (plus-$444) in '06 but just 48-90 (minus-$2,316) with another starting pitcher. The same is true this year. The D'Rays are 19-14 (plus-$614) in his starts, while going 65-93 (minus-$1,804) when it's someone else on the mound. Do the Yanks have any real motivation here? I think not. Conversely, the D'Rays close their season at home with the lefty Kazmir, facing a Yankee team that's 2-14 (minus-$1,830) vs left-handers on the season. MLB Game of the Year 20* TB Devil Rays.

Kelso Best Bets Club

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10 units Southern Miss +10.5 @ Boise State

ace-ace / allan eastman +21.75 units ncaa fb

4 s fla +7' -120 (buy 1/2)

Russ Culver Part I +10.4u ytd bases

Pirates +210

"Grand Salami" UNDER 117 1/2 -110 (2 units)

Burns Blue Chip Total - Balt/Tor UNDER

Burns Underdog of the Week - TB ML

Burns Personal Favorite - Milw ML

Burns ABC TV GOY - Georgia Tech

Burns Non-Conference Main Event - Florida State

Burns ESPN Game of the Month - Tulane

JIM FEIST BASEBALL 2007 REGULAR SEASON PACKAGE!!
(955) ATL Braves vs (956) PHI Phillies
Game Starts at September 27 2007 16:05 EST
Take (956) PHI Phillies
5 Star

Al Full Service

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Yesterday 0 - 2

3* Brewers
3* D'rays
3* Rockies

3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Atlanta at Philadelphia (7 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 27)
2-Unit Play. Take #956 Philadelphia (+1.5, -130) over Atlanta (7 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 27)
We have our boy Ed Rapuano behind the dish and Easy Ed is 25-41 against the total over the past two years. That’s a 62.2 percent ‘under’ rate. This one is essentially a full-blown playoff game considering that the Braves will be eliminated if they fall. John Smoltz has stayed ‘under’ in 12 of his past 18 starts and has given up more than three earned runs in one of his past 16 starts. I do think Philly wins this one, 4-2, to cloe the book on the Braves and get themselves one game closer to the postseason.

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 St. Louis at New York Mets (7 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 27)
1-Unit Play. Take #973 St. Louis (+1.5, +110) over New York Mets (7 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 27)
The Mets are in a free fall and we’re looking to keep cashing on their misery. They are killing the ball – whatever lineup they throw out there – but they just cannot get people out. I think Pedro will give them six inspired innings, but New York’s bullpen is a complete disaster. New York will blow another late lead and this one will go ‘over’ around the seventh inning as the Cardinals kick the Mets in the groin in Shea for the second year in a row.

1-Unit Play. Take #968 Tampa Bay (+1.5, -135) over New York Yankees (7 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 27)
The Yankees earned themselves another postseason berth last night and now I expect them to relax a bit. Scott Kazmir is on the hill for Tampa Bay and I’ll take y chances with him over Phil Hughes. Kazmir is 12-4 in his last 16 starts against a team with a winning record and the Yankees are 6-20 on the road against a left-handed starter.

1-Unit Play. Take #964 Boston (-1.5, -125) over Minnesota (7 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 27)
The Twins have gone 4-13 in Boof Bonser’s last 17 appearances and Boof has an ERA of 6.88 in his last 10 outings. The Red Sox are hoping to close the door on the Yankees for the division title and rest this weekend. Boston is 21-8 in Josh Beckett’s last 29 starts and 88-20 in their last 108 games at home as a favorite of -201 or greater.

That's it for today. Good luck. Robert Ferringo