Wild Bill NCAAF GOY L'ville Cards -3 over Rutgers 10 units
Over the total 1 unit
Over Packer and Cowboys 2 units
Burns Thursday Night GOY
DALLAS (-7 or better)
Game: Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Game Time: 11/29/2007 8:15:00 PM Prediction: Dallas Cowboys Reason: I'm laying the points with DALLAS. Its been an amazing run for Favre and the Packers and they've cost me more than once this season. That being said, I successfully played against the Packers the only previous time that they lost (vs. Chicago) and I feel strongly that they'll finally go down a second time on Thursday. The stats will show that the Packers have the better defense as they are allowing 16.8 points per game while the Cowboys are allowing 20.1. However, it's not entirely fair to compare those stats as the Cowboys have faced the Patriots while the Packers have only faced one team (the Giants) that currently has more than six wins. Note that the Packers caught the Giants when they were really struggling and that the Cowboys have also beaten them twice, each time by double-digits. Anyway, take away the 48 points that the Pats put up, and the Cowboys have allowed an average of just 17 points per game, almost the identical number that the Packers have allowed. Additionally, the Cowboys defense comes off an absolutely dominant effort, holding the Jets to three points and a mere 180 total yards. Conversely, the Packers allowed the Lions to score 26 points on 331 total yards. Favre's exceptional play notwithstanding, the Cowboys have been the much better offensive team, as they are averaging 32.5 points per game while the Packers are managing 26.9. The Cowboys offense racked up 174 total rushing yards last week, their highest total this season. Note that the Cowboys haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 13 games and that they held the Jets to a season low 60 yards on the ground. I also feel it's signficant that the Cowboys are coming off a non-conference game and playing their second straight at home while the Packers are coming off a big divisional win and playing their second straight road game. In addition to the situation and venue in their favor, I simply believe that the Cowboys are the better all around team. They know the extreme importance of this game and I look for them to improve to 7-1 ATS (8-0 SU) against conference opponents while the Packers fall to 2-6 ATS the last eight times that they were coming off a win over a divisional opponent. *Thursday GOY
Burns college football
LOUISVILLE (-4 or better)
Game: Rutgers vs. Louisville Game Time: 11/29/2007 7:45:00 PM Prediction: Louisville Reason: I'm laying the points with LOUISVILLE. You may recall that last year's game was labeled the "Game of the Century." The Cardinals jumped out to an 18-point lead but the Scarlet Knights rallied all the way back for a 28-25 win. That loss ruined the Cardinals' shot at competing for the national title and was the only blemish on last season's 12-1 record. Its safe to say that the Cardinals have NOT forgotten that painful loss and/or the largest crowd in Rutgers history storming the field afterwards. Prior to their bye week, the Cardinals lost on the road vs. a tough South Florida team. That's worth noting as we find them at 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) since the start of the 2005 season when coming off a loss vs. a conference opponent. While they've been inconsistent, the Cardinals have also proven that they are more than capable of rising to the occasion when properly motivated. Just ask Cincinnati as the Cardinals handed them their first loss and sent their season into a tailspin. The Cardinals beat Pittsburgh by seven points in their most recent game here, improving to 18-2 in 20 home games over the past 36 months. Note that ALL 18 victories came by a minimum of six points. This season, the Cardinals have averaged a whopping 45 points and 576 total yards in their five games. Its also worth noting that the Cardinals are 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they were favored by four points or less. The Scarlet Knights barely beat Pittsburgh in their last game and they got crushed 38-19 at Connecticut the last time that they played a conference road game. The Cardinals won 56-5 when these teams met here in 2005. While tonight's game isn't likely to be nearly that lopsided, I still expect another convincing win and cover for the revenge-minded home side. *Thursday Night Roast
Gator Report (Cajun-Sports)
Analysis: Both teams enter this contest with 10-1 records on the season. Both have not had any trouble scoring points this season and we look for an easy over here tonight. We have a system that says to Play Over NFL teams against the total after 3 or more consecutive wins facing an opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins, 107-60 Over since 1983. We also know the Packers are 7-0 Over on the road the week after they had at least 100 yards more offense than their season to date average. The Cowboys are 9-0 Over when their opponent is off two 10+ wins. PLAY: GREEN BAY / DALLAS OVER 51.5
Michael Cannon - went 3-0 yesterday
Thursday's Plays...
40 Dime –
RUTGERS
Take the points with Rutgers tonight when they travel to take on Louisville.
I can’t see Louisville’s defense stopping Ray Rice tonight. There’s no way they can keep him from breaking off huge chunks of yardage on the ground which will leave the passing lanes wide open for play-action from Mike Teel.
Louisville has been a huge disappointment this season and for them to suddenly step it up defensively is asking for a miracle.
Rutgers has the speed defensively to keep Brian Brohm from lighting it up through the air, and the Cardinals lack of a running game will allow the Scarlet Knights to pin their ears back and pressure him relentlessly.
Louisville is a dismal 1-5 ATS this year as a chalk, while Rutgers stands a perfect 5-0 ATS in weekday games.
The Cardinals are also 0-4 ATS at home this year, including a pair of outright upset losses to Utah and Syracuse. Rutgers has only played three road games this year, but they are 2-1 SUATS. The visitor is 7-1 ATS in Rutgers’ last eight on the road.
Take the points as Rutgers grabs the cash for us over the fading Cardinals.
15 Dime –
PACKERS (Buy the ½ point if your line drops to +6 ½)
Take the points with the Packers tonight when they take on the Cowboys in Dallas.
Throw all the history out the window regarding Brett Favre and the Packers inability to win in Dallas.
That means nothing when these two kick off tonight.
For the life of me I can’t understand why the Packers aren’t getting any respect from the linemaker here. They have the better defense in my opinion, and Favre is having perhaps his finest season ever.
Green Bay’s ability to play man-to-man with cornerbacks Al Harris and Charles Woodson will allow them to give Tony Romo unfamiliar looks on defense.
That could spell trouble for the Cowboys, because in the past when Romo gets confused he often forces passes into coverage and as a result gets picked off.
The Packers have been on an incredible run going 14-1 SU and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games dating back to last season. They are 7-0 SUATS on the road during the streak, including 5-0 SUATS this year.
This game is going to boil down to whoever makes the fewest mistakes wins. I just can’t trust Romo laying this kind of number against the Green Bay defense. Favre’s experience will be on full display here and the Cowboy’s young quarterback can take a few lessons from him tonight.
Take the points with the Packers as they stay within the number and remember to buy the ½ point should your line drop to +6 ½.
5 Dime –
OHIO
Take the points with Ohio tonight when they travel to take on Temple.
I’m not real impressed with Temple this year. They have shot better than 52 percent from the field and lost twice so far. That’s an indication that they have some defensive and rebounding issues.
Ohio’s defense has been forcing their opponents to the perimeter a lot in the early stages of the season, so Temple shouldn’t get many easy shots from the paint.
Bubba Walther’s range will help spread the floor for the visiting Bobcats, preventing the Owls from making any sustained runs.
Take the points with Ohio as they stay within the number.
Kelso
Chairmans Club = Packers +7 @ Dallas 15 units
Selective Sports has a 7 unit play for Thursday NFL. He is showing a profit in college and NFL but his NFL the last 2 weeks has been bad at -27.20 units. Tread lighty.
Burns college hoops
KANSAS STATE
Game: Oregon vs. Kansas State Game Time: 11/29/2007 9:00:00 PM Prediction: Kansas State Reason: I'm taking the points with KANSAS STATE. Yesterday, I successfully played on Penn State. The Nittany Lions were returning home after having played rather poorly in their tournament. I felt that they were better than they had shown in the tournament and expected them to bounce back with a much better effort (and a victory) on their home floor. I feel much the same way about tonight's matchup as I feel that the Wildcats are significantly better than they have shown. I also feel that the Wildcats have something to prove and that they'll play with a chip on their shoulder for tonight's nationally televised game. Last season, the Wildcats became the first 10-6 finisher in Big 12 history to not receive a bid to the NCAA Tournament. Note that Texas Tech, which finished fifth in the conference, was chosen by the NCAA Selection Committee and that the Red Raiders had been crushed 66-45 by the Wildcats in the Big 12 Tournament. This year's team has a new coach in Frank Martin (Bob Huggins' top assistant), anxious for his first signature victory. Martin has inherited a solid team with one bigtime superstar. Rated by some as the top high school prospect in the country last year, Michael Beasley has certainly been living up to the hype. Beasley has a double-double in all six games this season and is averaging an extremely impressive 27.2 ppg and 15.5 rpg. The Ducks can score with the best of them. However, their defense has been shaky and they allowed a whopping 99 points to St. Mary's in losing their most recent road game. That loss dropped the Ducks to 5-9 ATS the last 14 times they were favored by four points or less. Conversely, the Wildcats are 12-6 ATS the last 18 times they were underdogs of four points or less. Look for Beasley and co. to improve on those stats as remain perfect on their home floor by scoring the minor upset. *Best Bet
Burns NHL
CALGARY
Game: Anaheim Ducks vs. Calgary Flames Game Time: 11/29/2007 9:05:00 PM Prediction: Calgary Flames Reason: I'm laying the price with CALGARY. The Ducks have struggled on the road all season, going 3-7-1. However, even when the Ducks have been playing well on the road, they've never fared well here at Calgary. In fact, Anaheim is just 9-19-0 with one tie at Calgary since entering the league in 1993-94. Note that the Flames took both meetings here last season, winning by a combined score of 6-2. Including those victories, Flames' goalie Kiprusoff is 7-3-0 with a superb 1.65 goals-against average in 10 games against the Ducks. The Flames and their fans at the sold out Saddledome should be especically motivated tonight. Not only are the defending champions in town, but Flames' star and captain Jarome Iginla is set to become the franchise's all-time leader in games played. Look for a big effort from Iginla and co. as they grab the important two points and improve to 30-9 (+13.4) since 2005 when playing a home game with an over/under line of five or less. *Game of the Week
Burns NBA
UNDER celts/knicks (188 or better)
Game: New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics Game Time: 11/29/2007 8:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Boston and New York to finish UNDER the total. The Celtics come off a high-scoring contest at Cleveland on Tuesday. However, that game would have still finished comfortably below the total if not for the 29 points scored in overtime. Note that was just Boston's second loss of the season and that after the first, the Celtics responded by holding their following opponent (Golden St) to a mere 82 points in a game that finished below the number by more than 25 points. Including that result, the UNDER is a profitable 5-1-1 in the Celtics' seven home games with the visiting team averaging just 85 points. The Knicks also come off a high-scoring game. However, their four previous games ALL stayed below the total, including their most recent two on the road. Additionally, the Knicks have already seen the UNDER go 6-1 this season after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game. Look for tonight's game to be lower scoring than expected once again with the final combined score staying beneath the number. *TNT Total of the Month
Vegas Experts Tip Of The Day
2~1 this week
lost last night
16-9 this month
A high-scoring game is expected tonight when the Denver Nuggets and L.A. Lakers meet at Staples Center. Do the clubs go over the 217 total or keep it under that number?
`````````````````````````````````````````````````` ````
Denver in off a non-conference 112-110 home loss to Indiana and is 41-25 OVER after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons and 33-21 OVER after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons. It is missing some bigs (Martin, Kleiza, Hunter) as are the Lakers (Kwame Brown) so each club will be inclined to go small, play faster and jack up more shots. Lakers won at home but did not cover in their last vs. Seattle. They are 98-71 OVER off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite since 1996.
Play on: Over
__________________
Insider Sports Report
4* Green Bay +7 over Dallas (NFL)
Range +8.5 to +5.5
4* New York/Boston (NBA) OVER 188
Range 186.5 to 190
3* Rutgers/Louisville (NCAAF) OVER 59.5
Range 58 to 61.5
Discount Sports Picks
10* Green Bay +7 over Dallas (NFL)
5* Boston -13 over New York (NBA)
Matt Rivers
100,000* OUTRIGHT OR BURIAL Plus Bonus Lock
Your winners here are on:
1. 100,000♦ Rutgers
2. 50,000♦ Green Bay
3. 50,000♦ Drexel
1. I really believe that Rutgers will win this game but grab the field goal or so to be sure. If Louisville had the year they were supposed to then this would be a dirt cheap price on them but the Cardinals have pretty much been an inconsistent mess all season and can no longer be trusted. Brian Brohm is a star and Harry Douglas and Mario Urrutia are very skilled wide outs who can make plays but these guys just never quite bought into what Steve Kragthorpe was selling and that continued to rear its ugly head over and over and over again.
The Cardinals were horrific in that last game blowout loss in South Florida and are up against a similar physical team here in Greg Schiano's Scarlet Knights. Ray Rice and company will pound you on offense and bring the heat on defense. Brohm will make them pay a few times as he is that good but just not enough to make up for the team's overall deficiencies.
Rutgers has not exactly overachieved this season themselves but they have been far more consistent and have really never seemed lost. They did get drilled by West Virginia in New Jersey but Pat White and company have that potential against anybody and that was their egg for the season.
Right now Louisville is a mush team and I do not see anything changing here at all as the hard hitting wood chopping Knights come to town still on a mission and still with a purpose as Schiano will get the boys ready to rumble and take care of business!
2. At first glance earlier in the week I said to myself that at home Dallas would take care of business because Green Bay has been overachieving to the max and are not nearly as good as the record indicates. But then I started to think how much of a square move that is and reversed course. Here is the bottom line: We are getting probably the team with less talent here and are on the road but we are also backing a super super confident club that just continues to follow their leader in Brett Favre and ride the wave.
The Packers defense has been phenomenal and despite being up against Tony Romo and Terrell Owens will not all of a sudden implode here. KGB and Charles Woodson are banged up but that's not the end of the world. It's as if the visitors are playing with house money right now and are as loose as can be. This team is just loving playing the game and it has shown on the field. I can't say that I am fully sold on the Pack because they are not a 10-1 type of a team at all but with the confidence they have built up and a Hall of Fame quarterback that is just rolling right now there is no way to lay a full touchdown to them unless you are called New England.
The Pokes are still the best team in the Conference and are at home but a touchdown is more than worth its weight in gold as we are looking at a super competitive game in which I can see this thing end on three either way. I do think that the home Cowboys will pull it out but this number is a steal!
3. George Mason is a quality team but Drexel is as well leading me to believe this number is a bit high. The Dragons did come up short a few games ago at Virginia but Sean Singletary and the Cavs are very good and I have no issues with this team even if they were outclassed in that game as they are still 5-1 and should no way get outclassed here in what is a winnable game, it really is.
Mason is also a solid 5-1 and have already proven they can play with some big boys (relatively speaking) as evidenced by the wins over Michael Beasley and Kansas State as well as nipping South Carolina by a point. Jim Larrinagga's team is not the same as the one which went to the Final four a few season ago but they are not to be taken lightly at all. Will Thomas and Folarin Campbell are still around but that's about it.
These teams are very familiar with each other and nothing at all should surprise either side. The defense will more than likely be ahead of the offense keeping this thing in the 50's or 60's which bodes well for a decent sized underdog. Frank Elegar is a very very good player who more than held his own in Charlottesville and will be just fine here as well. In the end we are looking at a tight contest where either team can truly oull it out.
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-CBB (13-2 run with Insiders / 9-1 in BKB!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on Kansas St. With Huggins splitting after just one year (for his alma mater of West Va) in Manhattan, the Wildcats are on their third head coach in as many seasons. However, KSU has a great collection of young talent. Senior guards Young (8.5) and Stewart (4.8-2.8-3.0) are joined in the backcourt by an excellent freshman, Pullen (14.2). However, that's just the beginning. The 6-6 Bill Walker played just six games (ACL) last year and the man many thought would be one on the nation's top freshman, looks healthy and ready to procduce (12.5-6.5). Anderson, a 6-8 freshman forward is averaging 5.8-7.5 and then there's the 6-9 Michael Beasley! He's had a double-double in each of his first six college games, averaging 27.2 PPG and 15.5 RPG. The Ducks have no one to guard Beasley, although the 6-9 Luenen (16.0-10.5) will likely try. Oregon's a perimeter team, with only the 6-6 Catron (10.3-9.5) contributing inside (other than senior, Luenen). The Ducks are no slouches, with swingman Hairston (19.7-4.3), 5-6 guard Porter (16.0), Taylor (14.3-5.3) and freshman Brown (8.8-4.5 APG) forming an outstanding perimeter. However, as we saw at St Mary's in a 99-87 loss on Nov 20, the Ducks can be had! Manhattan 'rocks' tonight! Las Vegas Insider on Kansas St.