Spylock
NCAA
DateTime Game Pick Stars
11/29/07 Rutgers Rutgers +2.5 1
7:50 PM Louisville -2.5
Ice Man (Karpinsky)- Play: Money Line: 125 Toronto Maple Leafs
Handicapper: Michael Alexander
Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Total: 51.5/100 Over Play Title: Play on Over
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Rating: 2 Units
GREEN BAY is 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) after 4 straight wins by 10 or more points since 1992.
DALLAS is 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) in home games after 4 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
DALLAS is 22-6 OVER (+15.4 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. since 1992.
Handicapper: Michael Alexander
Rutgers vs. Louisville (NCAAF) - 7:45 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/102 Rutgers Play Title: Play on Rutgers
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Rating: 2 Units
LOUISVILLE is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
LOUISVILLE is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers since 1992.
RUTGERS coach Schiano is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse.
Handicapper: Michael Alexander
Ohio vs. Temple (NCAAB) - 7:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 5.5/-109 Ohio Play Title: Play on Ohio
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Rating: 2 Units
OHIO U is 70-45 ATS (+20.5 Units) after playing a home game since 1997.
OHIO U is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons.
Playing against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TEMPLE) who are off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season is 93-52 ATS (64.1%) since 1997.
Handicapper: Michael Alexander
Oklahoma vs. USC (NCAAB) - 11:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -5.5/-115 USC Play Title: Play on USC
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Rating: 2 Units
OKLAHOMA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons.
USC is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
USC is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after a combined score of 125 points or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
Handicapper: Michael Alexander
Gonzaga vs. St Joseph's (NCAAB) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -1/-105 St Joseph's Play Title: Play on St. Joseph's
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Rating: 2 Units
Playing on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ST JOSEPHS) who are off a home win by 10 points or more, with four starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season is 49-23 ATS (68.1%) since 1997.
ST. JOSEPH'S coach Martelli is 52-38 ATS (+10.2 Units) after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.
GONZAGA coach is Few is 36-50 ATS (-19.0 Units) after 3 consecutive non-conference games.
Handicapper: Michael Alexander
New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics (NBA) - 8:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -13/107 Boston Celtics Play Title: Play on Boston
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Rating: 2 Units
BOSTON is 6-2 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK coach Thomas is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) in road games after a win by 6 points or less in all games he has coached since 1996.
BOSTON coach Rivers is 82-63 ATS (+12.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of BOSTON.
Handicapper: Michael Alexander
New York Islanders vs. New York Rangers (NHL) - 7:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 1.5/-170 New York Islanders Play Title: Pla on NY Islanders
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Rating: 2 Units
NY RANGERS are 8-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) off a close home loss by 1 goal over the last 3 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 8-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) after 2 straight close losses by 1 goal over the last 3 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against poor offensive teams - scoring <=2.55 goals/game this season.
NY ISLANDERS are 4-0 ATS (+4.0 Units) in road games against excellent power play killing teams- give up <=13% of chances over the last 2 seasons.
Handicapper: Michael Alexander
Boston Bruins vs. Florida Panthers (NHL) - 7:35 PM EST Free Play
Pick: Point Spread: 1.5/-255 Boston Bruins Play Title: NHL Free Play - Boston vs Florida
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The Boston Bruins travel to Florida to take on the Panthers after a big win 6-3 win over the Flyers in their previous game. The win was their third in their last four putting them at 12-8-0-2 on the season. After a tough year last season it appears that the Bruins have turned it around with all of their off season activity.
Over the last five games the Boston offense has really come to life as they are averaging a potent 3.4 goals per game. Their defense also appears to have gotten better as they are allowing 2.5 goals per game. However, it hasn't been off season acquisition Manny Fernandez who has produced the improvement. It's last years goaltender Tim Thomas who sports a 94% save percentage.
The Panthers have heated up as well winning their last four in row including last nights 2-1 win over Washington. The win evened Florida's record on the season at 12-12-0-1. Florida has had some success versus the Bruins at home as they are 10-8-2 SU since 1996.
The Florida offense hasn't been a potent as Boston's as they are averaging 3.0 goals per game. Their defense has been a bit suspect as well giving up 2.8 goals per game on the season, but they have improved over their last 5 averaging 2.0 per game against. Starting goaltender Tomas Vokoun has produced a 91% save percentage on the season.
SUPPORTING ANGLES: BOSTON is 11-4 ATS (+15.6 Units) after a road game where both teams score 3 or more goals over the last 2 seasons. BOSTON is 15-9 ATS (+25.2 Units) after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. FLORIDA is 53-81 ATS (+136.9 Units) after a 2 game unbeaten streak since 1996.
Boston looks to be the better team at this point in the season and should win this one outright. As an added bonus I'm taking the Bruins with a goal and a half.
Last 30 Days' Results
• All Leagues 90-80-3 (53% for +$266)
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Alan Boston
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Arkansas st. -7
Dr. Bob
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3 Star Selection
*** PITTSBURGH (-7.0) 30 Cincinnati 14
05:15 PM Pacific, 02-Dec-07
Don’t let Cincinnati ’s 35-6 win over Tennessee fool you. The Bengals are still bad team and they were out-gained by the Titans 6.1 yards per play to 5.7 yppl in that seemingly dominant win. Cincy also hasn’t played well in consecutive games all season, as the Bengals are 0-4 ATS after a pointspread win. Last week’s big win sets Cincinnati up in a negative 24-61-2 ATS road letdown situation and Pittsburgh applies to a 63-28-4 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggests that they have the characteristics of a good home favorite. That wasn’t the case last week on a horrible field on Monday night against Miami , but the Steelers have won their 6 home games by an average score of 26-9 this season. The only good thing about Cincinnati is an offense that has been 0.4 yards per play better than average this season, averaging 5.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack. However, Pittsburgh ’s defense has a significant advantage over that unit, as the Steelers have yielded just 4.2 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. The Steelers have been just average offensively but Cincy has given up 6.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team, so Pittsburgh should move the ball well like they did in the first meeting (they averaged 6.6 yppl in a 24-13 win at Cincinnati). Pittsburgh’s most productive receiver, Santonio Holmes, is likely to miss this game, but quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has only been 0.1 yppl worse in 2 other games that Holmes has missed this season. My math model favors Pittsburgh by 11 points in this game and the situation is favorable, so I’ll take Pittsburgh in a 3- Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 2-Stars from -7 ½ to -9 points.
2-Star Total
**UNDER (42) - Atlanta 18 ST. LOUIS (-3.0) 16
10:00 AM Pacific, 02-Dec-07
The Rams may be without starting quarterback Marc Bulger, who suffered a concussion last week, but there really has been no difference between Bulger and backup Gus Frerotte in compensated yards per pass play – although Frerotte is more interception prone. The Rams’ offense is horrible regardless of who is at quarterback, as that unit has averaged only 4.5 yards per play this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack. Atlanta is a bit worse than average defensively (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team), but the Falcons stop unit has a significant edge over the Rams’ offense. Atlanta ’s offense is also at a disadvantage, as the Falcons have averaged only 4.8 yppl with Joey Harrington at quarterback (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) while St. Louis is only 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl). I really don’t understand how the total can be 42 points in this game, as Rams games have averaged 40.8 points (against teams that combine to average 42.1 total points per game) while Atlanta has averaged only 36.3 total points per game against teams that combine to average 40.7 total points. If Rams’ games are 1.3 points lower scoring than normal and Falcons’ games are 4.4 points lower scoring than normal, then you’d expect this game to be 5.7 points lower scoring than normal. The average points in a game is 42.8 this season and the median points is 41 ½ points, so a total of 36 or 37 points results from that simple analysis. Atlanta is 7-4 Under this year, including 5-0 Under on the road while the Rams are 8-3 Under this season. My math model projects just 34 ½ points, and I’ll go UNDER 41 points or more in a 2-Star Best Bet.
Strong Opinion
DALLAS (-7.0) 30 Green Bay 17
05:15 PM Pacific, 29-Nov-07
Green Bay has been red-hot since their bye week, winning and covering all 5 games heading into the NFC showdown with fellow 10-1 team Dallas. The Packers are certainly capable of competing in this game, but they apply to a very negative 24-75-3 ATS road letdown situation tonight while Dallas applies to a very strong 74-27-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator. I’d love to play Dallas here as a Best Bet, but the line is a little high. Green Bay is no longer a one-dimensional offense team since RB Ryan Grant burst onto the scene with 467 rushing yards at 4.6 ypr in 5 games since taking over the running back position. Brett Favre is having an exceptional season and the Packers are actually rate the same offensively as the Cowboys’ potent attack (both are 1.2 yards per play better than average). The Packers are 0.2 yppl better than average defensively, but that’s not nearly as good as a stingy Cowboys’ defense that is 0.9 yppl better than average since star LB Greg Ellis began playing in week 4. Overall my math model favors Dallas by just 4 points since Green Bay is better on special team, but the situation and statistical indicator favoring Dallas are both strong enough to give up some line value. I’ll consider Dallas a Strong Opinion at -7 or less and I’d take Dallas in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 or less.
Strong Opinion
INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5) 28 Jacksonville 15
10:00 AM Pacific, 02-Dec-07
The Colts have a slim one game lead in the AFC South over the Jaguars, so this is an important contest. In the first meeting Jaguars quarterback David Garrard was injured and backup Quinn Gray was horrible in his place. Garrard is back and playing well (0 interceptions this season), but the Jaguars apply to a very negative 24-75-3 ATS road letdown situation while the Colts apply to a solid 63-28-4 ATS statistical profile indicator (they have the statistical characteristics of a team that should be good as a home favorite). Indianapolis hasn’t been as explosive offensively without star WR Marvin Harrison but the Colts have been very good defensively this season (4.5 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense). Jacksonville ’s defense hasn’t been nearly as good as it’s been in recent years, as the Jags have allowed 5.6 yppl to teams that would only combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defense. The problem is that the line is high according to my math model, which favors the Colts by just 4 points after adjusting for the Colts’ pass attack without Harrison and the Jags having Garrard back at the helm. The Colts traditionally out-play their stats by a couple of points, so a fair line of 6 points could be justified and 7 is too high. I’ll consider Indianapolis a Strong Opinion at -7 or less and for a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 or less.
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Real Animal
3* Dallas -6 1/2 on the buy @ -120 at Olympic
charlies sports
nfl. green bay @ dallas under 52 (500* )
nfl. dallas-7 (30*)
ncaaf. louisville-2' (20*)
ncaaf. rutgers @ louisville under 60 (20*)
nba. lakers-5 (10*)
nba. boston-13 (10*) free play