Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-CBB (4-1 run last 22 days!)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on Wisconsin-Green Bay at 8:00 ET. Butler is the "class of the Horizon League" but Wisconsin-Green Bay feels as if it can be a strong No.2 to the Bulldogs this year, although Valparaiso and Wright State (last year's champs) may argue. However, I'm 'buying' what UWGB's head coach Rob Jeter is 'selling.' The Phoenix return four of five starters and in the early going, 5-10 freshman PG Fletcher (13.1) has adequately replaced the lone starter lost from last year, Evanochko (15.0). The 6-9 Schachtner (19.7-4.7) will "have his way" inside in this game and the Phoenix have had 10 players see action in all seven games this year, with NINE of those players averaging better than double digits in minutes. Loyola-Chicago fell short of expectations last year despite 21 wins and has just one returning starter this year, 6-1 guard Blount (17.5). He's joined by a weird starting lineup in which he's the only "true" guard, as the team is full of 6-6 to 6-8 players getting most of the minutes. The 6-6 Young (10.3-6.0) is the only other starter reaching double digits and the Ramblers have lost their last four games, since opening with wins over Le Moyne and Eastern Illinois (big deal!). Meanwhile, the Phoenix (5-2) have lost at only Ohio St and a pretty good U Mass team. The WRONG team is favored in this one and the Phoenix should have little trouble winning here (which ensures a cover!). Oddsmaker's Error on Wisconsin-Green Bay
Karl Garrett
40 DIMER
CHICAGO BEARS
10 DIMERS
CHICAGO UNDER
VILLANOVA
Maddux Sports
#102 - NFL - 2 units on Washington -3
Insider Sports Report
4* Denver/Dallas (NBA) OVER 213.5
Range 212 to 215.5
4* Providence -3.5 over S. Carolina (NCAAB)
Range -1.5 to -5.5
3* Chicago/Washington (NFL) OVER 37
Range 35 to 39
Charlies Sports Members Section
nfl. chicago @ washington under 37' (500* )
nfl. chicago+3 (30*)
nba. dallas-7-7 (20*)
cbb. south carolia+3' (20*)
cbb. villanova-9' (10*)
nba. minnesota+10 (10*) free play
PURE LOCK--
MOREHEAD ST @ AUSTIN PEAY 8:30 pm est
PLAY ON-- AUSTIN PEAY (-) pts
ATS LOCK
3 Over 38 Chicago
Hoops
3 Wisc G B
ATS FINANCIAL
3 Chicago
Hoops
3 Nuggets
Lem Banker
Miami Heat
Ppp
Nba
3% Mavs
College
3% Providence
3% N'eastern
4% N.colorado
matty o shea... Thu, 12/06/07 - 8:15 PMMatty O'Shea | NFL Side
double-dime bet102 WAS -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 101 CHI
Analysis: The Redskins were sleep walking in their last game against Buffalo following the tragic death of safety Sean Taylor, as head coach Joe Gibbs gave the Bills a gift in calling back-to-back time-outs at the end of the game for an easy game-winning field-goal attempt. Taylor's teammates mourned at a memorial service on Monday and should be ready for an inspired performance in honor of him on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Bears blew a great shot to get back into the playoff race last Sunday against the Giants. Chicago's defense remains a major disappointment, especially against the run. I simply see Washington RB Clinton Portis running all over the Bears, giving the Redskins some renewed hope for a strong finish. Portis has totaled 457 rushing yards in his last 3 meetings with Chicago, averaging 6.4 yards per carry. That's why I'm taking the Redskins as my Double Dime NFL TV Play O' the Week
DR CHAD ALL SPORTS
NFL- 5 unit on WASHINGTON
NBA- 5 unit on DENVER.
College Hoops- 5 units on Butler and TENNESSEE ST.
3 units on WRIGHT ST.
LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR): CHICAGO BEARS vs WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Play: WASHINGTON REDSKINS -3
Comments: LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: WASHINGTON REDSKINS -3 ^^^ Okay, lets take out the Sean Taylor equation here. Too many cappers using this tragedy as a device for handicapping this game. It's a tragedy and it deserves it's time in the spotlight but it's not the reason Washington will win and cover this evening. If you're about to be tackled by a 300 pound lineman running at you at full force with the only intention of causing you great bodily harm, the last thing you'll be thinking of is tributes and motivational speeches. Instinct takes over and ultimately it's the better team that wins tonight and that is what it's about. Chicago comes in with the a defense that is 27th in rush defense in the NFL. That's going to be a problem against Clinton Portis. Considering Joe Gibbs likes to grind games out. You can expect to see a full dose of Portis tonight. Chicago is also 25th against the pass. What s our point? Too much press and hype which is a nice way to say the Bears once feared defense is over rated. Washington has seen much tougher this season and held their own. As for Portis, he shines when he plays the Bears. He has run for 457 yards on 71 carries (6.4 yards per carry) in three career games against them. Washington did have an emotional week, but it's time to tighten the belt and get back to work, Both teams playing on a short week so we immediately would lean towards the home team here as they don't face travel time and have more time to prep. Chicago is 6-23 ATS away in December. Facing a short week, up against a weak rush defense, we'll side with the home team here.
LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) LATE ADDITION SELECTION: LSU vs Villanova
Play: Villanova -8.5 (ncaab)
Comments: LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) LATE ADDITION SELECTION: Always check back by 7pm est week days and 6pm est on the Week ends. Always remember that plays posted early are always LVTR primary plays. Today's Late addition play is : Villanova -8.5 (ncaab)
wunderdogsports(nba)
Game: Denver at Dallas (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 215 -110
Two very good offensive teams meet in Dallas tonight. Dallas has been similar to last year in one respect - their offense is ranked No. 9 in points per game, exactly where they were a year ago. The big difference is the commitment, or lack of commitment on the defensive end. Last year they were ranked fourth overall, this year they have sunk to ordinary at No. 15. Denver is all about offense. They are currently ranked No. 4 and their defense is down at No. 23. This will be back-to-back nights for both these teams. Denver has been 9-4 to the OVER in this situation and Dallas is 6-3. It isn't the offense that suffers on these back-to-backs it's the defense, which has been lacking from both sides anyway.
wunderdogsports(nhl)
Game: Carolina at Tampa Bay (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Tampa Bay -1.5 goals +223 (risk 4 to win 8.9)
Tampa Bay is 10-4 at home this season, crushing all comers. They are averaging 3.8 goals per game while allowing just 2.2. Against division foes they are pouring in 4.1 goals per game. Carolina has played very little defense all season long and right now they are plyaing very poorly. Over their last five games they have allowed 3.8 goals per game while scoring just 2.4. When you give up 8 goals in a game, something is seriously wrong. They bounced back after that embarrassment last game but now that is done, and we expect them to return to their normal play. Tampa Bay has won 28 of 40 games at home the past three seasons when favored on the moneyline between -100 and -150 and we like them here on the puckline.
Game: Montreal at Boston (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Boston -1.5 goals +240 (risk 3 to win 7.2)
Montreal is playing horrible right now, having dropped five of their last six. They have scored 2 goals or less in four of those games while allowing an average of 3.8 goals against. Boston is 7-3 at home this season, holding opponents to just 1.5 goals per game. Over their last five games - all on the road - they have poured in 3.4 goals per game. They return home off a 3-4 loss to New Jersey so they will be motivated to win here. They are 8-3 following a loss this season including 5-0 after giving up 4+ goals in their last game.
Game: Vancouver at Nashville (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Nashville -1.5 goals +214 (risk 3 to win 6.4)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 5 -130 (risk 3 to win 2.3)
Vancouver can certainly play defense, but their offense is a bit more inconsistent. Mashville can't be stopped at home where they are averaging 3.6 goals per game on way to a 7-4 record. We think they can find the net tonight. This team is 39-15 at home as a favorite on the moneyline of -200 or less the past three seasons and we like their chances at a big win here. The Canucks are 7-4 UNDER at home but 5-4 OVER on the road. While 9-3 UNDER on the road, the Predators are 7-4 OVER at home. We'll back the Predators on the puckline and the OVER.
MIKE LINEBACK
4* Teaser: NFL Same-Game 7-Point Teaser -120 Chicago Bears Spread +10 for Game / Total Points OVER 30.5 for Game
4* Chicago Bears Spread +3.5 for Game -135 (buy ½ pt)
4* MIAMI HEAT + Spread -2.5 for Game -120 ( ½ pt. buy)
4* Providence Spread -3.5 for Game -110
vegas-runner | NFL Total
double-dime bet102 WAS / 101 CHI Under 37.5 Sportsbetting.com
Analysis:
Well I had hoped that we would be able to get this one at 38 or even higher, but the oddsmaker was well aware that sharps everywhere would have jumped all over it, so instead we will go Under 37.5...now many books will most likely push this to 37, and unless their is terrible weather, which would influence a total such as high winds or rain, I do not expect them to move off of such a key number, and of course, there is still the possibility that the recreational bettors begin to come in heavy on the Over, in which case we may see 38...but again, as long as we are able to get 37 or higher, we are just fine..
Both teams come in on short weeks, as well as off games that they really should have gotten a win in...and those losses have now made the Playoffs much more difficult to reach, and the loser of this game, will really be looking for more help than may be possible to extend their season...so in short, both clubs will be playing this game to win, and I don't expect a wide open, risky type of fun ballgame, but instead a typical NFC Defensive battle...Both clubs are 20th and 23rd respectively in points scored and in the bottom 1/3 in the league in yards per game..more importantly, they just have not been able to score points even when they are able to get into the Red-Zone...or at least not Touch Downs...in fact the Bears are only scoring 7 on 38% of their RZ Opportunities, while the Redskins are also almost as bad, converting TD's on only about 50% of there's...so that tells me that we have 2 clubs who routinely turn the ball over when they get close, get sacked, penalized, or even forced to punt..and at best, attempt a FG...
Not what you want when looking to play a game Over...Washington is 6th in the NFL in rushing attempts per game, and average 33 rushes at home, while the Bears, although not at all successful on the ground, do try to rush the football regardless and will give it to their backs about 27 times per game..Washington has had success on the ground and should do so again tomorrow, especially with the undersized Defensive-Ends for Chicago...
Now we also need to look at special teams because when you have Hester involved in a match-up you have to account for him...well fortunately for us Under Bettors, the Redskins have actually been very good in that department...in fact, they are ranked 2nd in punt coverage, and have allowed only 1 TD return, which was a Kick-off return by the Jets Leon Washington...but other than that, they have been stellar and rank at the top of the NFL on special teams coverage...
Finally, both these teams aren't able to convert on more than 40% of their 3rd down opportunities, which means that we will see a lot of drives stalling on Thursday for both teams, and when you look at the recent games these 2 have been involved in...4 of the last 6 have gone Under for Chicago, as well as the last 2 for Washington, and neither had a posted total above 38...Campbell has toosed only 12TD Passes, and Griese 9...while Portis and Betts have combined for only 7TD's and Benson and Peterson 6 TD's...and strangely enough, Randel El has almost 600 yrds receiving and has ZERO TD's, while the WR for the Bears, Clark and Berrian have a total of 6 combined...
So lets get to the bottom line, which is...with a posted total of 37.5...there is only one way that I can possibly see wagering on the Total...and thats the Under...lets see if we can continue to knock down these Prime-Time Games, and cash another 2* Wager.