THE MAXX / Kevin O'Neill
NFL
Broncos @ Texans under 47
This is a meaningful game for this pair of 6-7 teams, as if the season was over right now, a 7-6 team would be an AFC Wild Card team. Though there are teams ahead of them, the winner will move to 7-7and will still be alive (though in need of help) in the playoff chase. With relatively inexperienced teams, especially at quarterback, playing in a meaningful big game, don't be surprised at all if both of these coaches go conservative and have trouble trusting their young play callers. Mike Shanahan in particular may struggle to cut Jay Cutler loose. Cutler is a much better quarterback at home than he is on the road, with a 12/6 TD to INT ratio at home but struggling on that road with only 5 touchdown passes to 6 interceptions. Denver?s D is playing better than people realize.
On Sunday 10 of Kansas City?s 12 possessions were 3 plays or less. And
while that was against a horrendously weak offense,they're previous two games weren't nearly as poordefensively as it appeared.At Oakland, turnoverinside of their own territory led to 31 of the Raiders 34 points, and at Chicago you?ll recall that specialteams miscues resulted in three Bears TD's.Sage Rosenfels has played better than Matt Schaub (higher rating, better TD/INT ratio) and with Schaub's dislocated shoulder, the backup is supposed to go again here. But when you look inside the Texans box score on Sunday, it does not inspire confidence that an offensive surge is on the way.
The Texans scored four TD's on Sunday, and three involved events other than impressive offensive drives. Houston scored on a kickoff return for a touchdown to start the second half and two of their touchdown drives were 23 and 17 yards. they gained less than 4 yards per play on Sunday in what on the surface seems to be an offensively productive win but was actually anything else.
Meanwhile their young defense continues to be better than people realize. With both teams possessing better D?s than people realize, young unproven quarterbacks in a big game, and these twoteams playing games with a lot of accidental points lately, well look for this game to go under the total.
LT Profits COMP
The San Jose Sharks put up four goals on the Minnesota Wild on Tuesday, but they have been a good Under team in general at home, while the Vancouver Canucks figure to be somewhat tired playing the second half of a back-to-back.
In fact, the Under is still 7-1-1 in the last nine San Jose home games, as well as a very lucrative 9-3-1 in all Sharks home games this season. Yes, five is a low posted total, but those San Jose games are averaging a combined 4.69 goals this year, and only one Shark game out of the last nine has exceeded five combined goals.
The Canucks are struggling offensively right now, as they have scored three goals or less in six of the last seven games. Furthermore, they scored two goals or less in four of those games. Yes, they are without starting goaltender Roberto Luongo, but Curtis Sanford has done very well in relief, going 4-1 with a 2.50 GAA, so he should do his part to keep this score down.
The Canucks are also short-handed offensively as center Brendan Morrison is out indefinitely after seeing his streak of 542 consecutive games played snapped last night, so do not look for much scoring in this contest.
Free Pick: Canucks, Sharks Under 5 (+105)
LT Profits comp
Miami Florida +6.0 (-110)
Thu Dec 13 '07 8:00p
Drew Gordon
Thursday Plays:
1. 300,000* Texans
2. 50,000* Miami-Florida
1. Texans- After watching the Broncos dominate the Chiefs 41-7 last Sunday in Denver, I can understand why the public seems to love them tonight in Houston, but like most cases where the public is in love with a team... They're dead-wrong and here's why:
For all of those people backing Denver tonight, did you forget to watch the Broncos on the road this season?! Losses at Oakland, Chicago, Detroit, and Indy come to mind! In fact, did you know Denver has covered only one road game this season, at the sorry-ass Chiefs! Guys, if you saw the Broncos last road game, where they got crushed by the Raiders 34-20, how can you possibly side with Denver in this game?!
The teacher versus pupil angle is being way overplayed in this one, but there is some credence to the fact both teams run similar offenses, so you'd expect them to be familiar with eachothers systems. Difference is the Texans defense is excellent at home, allowing just 19 ppg, while the Denver defense falls asleep on the road, allowing a whopping 29 ppg when they travel!
Finally, while a lot is being made of Sage Rosenfels starting for the Texans, let's not forget, the guy is 2-0 in place of Schaub, and is coming off an excellent game versus a rock-solid Bucs defense. He not only completed 75% of his passes, but threw for 3 TDs and no picks, raising his overall QB rating for the season to 91.3 (4 points higher than Schaub)... So don't tell me the guy can't get the job done tonight, because he's proven more than adequate.
Bottom line, while I expect a close game here, the Broncos are garbage on the road, and eventually their lack of focus defensively costs them this game. Cutler is still vulnerable in hostile environments (see Raiders game - 50% completion, 0 TDs 2 picks) and with both teams on the outside looking in, the pressure is too much for Denver's young gun in Houston tonight.
Take the Texans plus the points over the Broncos as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Miami-Florida- Got to love the Hurricanes in this spot for several reasons, but none bigger than the fact they're outstanding basketball right now, sitting at 8-0 SU and 5-0 ATS, make no mistake, the Bulldogs are in for a battle tonight.
Guard-heavy Mississippi State is at a disadavantage against a 'Canes team built around tough perimeter defense, allowing 58 ppg on just 36% shooting (27% from 3-point) this season. Jamont Gordon is clearly the Bulldogs best option, but with Miami keying on him, I'm not convinced this Bulldogs team has another consistent threat.
Down-low the edge clearly goes the Hurricanes, as senior C King and forwards Asbubry and Collins are all rock-solid players. Whereas the Bulldogs rely on F Charles Rogers for most their frontline scoring, but have very little after him. Rogers will have his hands full all game, which eventually will wear him down.
Finally, one edge that cannot be ignored is Miami's depth compared to a very shallow Mississippi State bench. Bulldogs rotate about 7 players, but that includes several players averaging under 5 ppg... In other words, after their top-4 the drop-off in talent in significant. Look for Miami to take advantage when the Bulldogs go to their bench.
Bottom line, while Mississippi State may be at home, this Hurricanes team is not going down without a fight. Miami already went to Providence and got the 64-58 win, and although a tougher match up, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they pull out the upset tonight in Starkville.
Take Miami-Florida plus the points over Mississippi State in this college hoops match up.
John Ryan
Game: Denver Broncos at Houston Texans Dec 13 2007 8:15PM
Prediction: Houston Texans
Reason: Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Houston Texans – AiS shows an 83% probability that Houston will win this game. Simplistically, Houston has a fantastic passing offense and a horrible passing defense; both of which work against Denver. Seems Denver cannot exploit weak passing defenses nor can they defend against strong passing offense. Denver is 0-7 ATS versus awful passing defenses that are allowing a completion percentage of 64% or worse over the last 2 seasons. Also, Denver is 0-7 ATS versus excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better over the last 2 seasons. Denver is coming off a strong win 41-7 at home over KC. In that game they gained well over 6.0 YPP and this puts them into a terrible spot for this game. Note that Denver is 0-7 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game this season. A big factor in this game is that I see Houston stopping the Denver running game by playing a Tampa-2 scheme. Linebackers Morlon Greenwood, DeMeco Ryans, and Danny Clark will be able to show run support at the LOS and drop back into under neath pass coverage. Denver QB Cutler can be easily confused by this simply that he loves to take chances. By seeing run stop he can believe that the middle of the field will be open, but with the Tampa-2 the MLB will drop into the area usually open with a conventional cover-2 scheme. Plus, and most important, the LB corp has the athleticism and skill to stop the run without gimmicks. Take Houston
Tony Weston comp
Coming into this season one could say there were high expectations for both the Miami Heat and Washington Wizards. The Heat have struggled this season, especially early on without Dwayne Wade. And the Wizards took a step back with the loss of Gilbert Arenas.
Wade’s back and Arenas is not. However, the Heat are still only 6-15 SU this season, while the Wiz are only 11-10.
After a six-game road trip that took them out west to take on some of the best teams in the Western Conference, the Heat finally play a home game for the first time since Nov. 30.
But that may not be a good thing as the Heat are 3-5 ATS at home this season, while the Wizards are 6-4 ATS on the road.
Washington is also 6-4 ATS its L10 games and 5-1 ATS its L6.
Over their L5 games both Miami and Washington are putting up strong offensive numbers with the Wizards averaging 103.8 points per game and the Heat averaging 107.4 in that five-game span. However, Washington is playing a little better defensively, giving up only 96.4 points a contest to Miami’s 109.8.
The Heat’s inability to get back and play some D will be key tonight.
The Wizards will light up the scoreboard and run past the home team.
Go with Washington on the road tonight.
2* WIZARDS (1* to 5* Scale)
Kendall Holiday NFL Game of the Month
Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos have rather quietly been playing very good football of late, and their young offense has made tremendous strides, led by Cutler, Marshall and Selvin Young. The Broncos dropped a road game to the Raiders, in a game where Travis Henry fumbled twice and Jay Cutler threw two INT's, but the Broncos were still in the game late. This is a special game for Denver HC Shanahan as he faces his mentee and his son in this game at Reliant Stadium. Shanahan taught Gary Kubiak much of what he knows, and the big brother / little brother scenario exists here a big way. Kubiak would like nothing more than to hand Shanny a loss, but that will not happen. Denver has finally let loose of their baggage along the DL, allowing the young kids to play and they have responded, shutting down KC last weekend. Second year DE, Elvis Dumervil has chipped in 11 sacks this season, and will make life difficult for Sage Rosenfels here. Champ Bailey will lock it up with Andre Johnson, and will slow him. Denver's defense has been beaten by teams that can run the football, and we question Houston's ability to get that done here with Darius Walker. It is too late for Denver to make any noise this January, but this team looks poised for some strong runs next season and thereafter. Their inconsistencies have had much to do with their youth, and this offense is starting to resemble some of Shanahan's previous juggernauts. Houston has improved this season, but of their six wins, one has come against a team with a winning record. Houston has beaten bad football teams. The Broncos will have their way on offense in this game, and they will even their record Thursday. Five units on Denver in our December Game of the Month.
Tony Stoffo
Florida Panthers vs. St. Louis Blues (NHL) - 8:35 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -150 St. Louis Blues Play Title: 15 Unit NHL Game of the Month
One of my top rated situational trends in the NHL goes here favoring the Blues for tonight. Play On - Home Favorites of -200 or less against the money line (St Louis) - after a close loss by 1 goal in their previous game against opponent after losing their previous game in overtime. This powerful trend as gone 39-5 over the past 5 seasons hitting at an incredible 89% Plus is a perfect 3-0 already this season. Plus add in the fact that the Panthers are 13-42 in road games during the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons makes St Louis my highly recommended play for tonight
Black Magic Sports
5 Unit Black Magic Broncos/Titans BEST BET on Denver -1
The Denver Broncos will rely on experience to get them over the top tonight. This veteran ball club has been in the spotlight of a must-win game many times. The young Houston Texans aren?t ready for the pressure that comes with tonight?s game. The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. The Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. The Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC. The Texans are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games off a home win. The Broncos are 8-1 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 3 seasons. Cash in with Denver as the favorite.
NCAA Basketball:
3 Unit Sharp Play on Mississippi State -5
The Mississippi State Bulldogs will roll at home tonight. Miami is a perfect 8-0 on the season and their heads are clearly being held too high heading into this confrontation. Mississippi State will put the Hurricanes in their place at home. Mississippi State is 8-0 ATS versus teams who are called for 3 plus less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Bulldogs are 12-3 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Mississippi State is 17-5 ATS after 2 straight games where they had 10 or more steals. The Bulldogs have 4 returning starters this season with plenty of talent to get the job done Wednesday. Cash in with Mississippi State as the favorite.
ATS LOCK
4 Denver -1 1/2
Hoops
3 Lakers -4 1/2
ATS FINANCIAL
3 Over 47 Denver
Hoops
3 Washington +6
Rocketman
Play On: 3* Mississippi State -5.5
Mississippi State is 25-9 ATS last 3 years in all home games. Mississippi State is scoring 81 points per game at home this year. Mississippi State is allowing only 62.7 points per game overall this year and 63.8 points per game at home this season. MISSISSIPPI ST is 14-4 ATS as a home favorite or pick over the last 2 seasons. MISSISSIPPI ST is 12-2 ATS in home games after 2 consecutive non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. MISSISSIPPI ST is 10-1 ATS in home games after 3 consecutive non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. We'll play Mississippi State for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
John Ryan's 5* Monster Play
Game: Denver Broncos at Houston Texans Dec 13 2007 8:15PM
Prediction: Houston Texans
Reason: Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Houston Texans ? AiS shows an 83% probability that Houston will win this game. Simplistically, Houston has a fantastic passing offense and a horrible passing defense; both of which work against Denver. Seems Denver cannot exploit weak passing defenses nor can they defend against strong passing offense. Denver is 0-7 ATS versus awful passing defenses that are allowing a completion percentage of 64% or worse over the last 2 seasons. Also, Denver is 0-7 ATS versus excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better over the last 2 seasons. Denver is coming off a strong win 41-7 at home over KC. In that game they gained well over 6.0 YPP and this puts them into a terrible spot for this game. Note that Denver is 0-7 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game this season. A big factor in this game is that I see Houston stopping the Denver running game by playing a Tampa-2 scheme. Linebackers Morlon Greenwood, DeMeco Ryans, and Danny Clark will be able to show run support at the LOS and drop back into under neath pass coverage. Denver QB Cutler can be easily confused by this simply that he loves to take chances. By seeing run stop he can believe that the middle of the field will be open, but with the Tampa-2 the MLB will drop into the area usually open with a conventional cover-2 scheme. Plus, and most important, the LB corp has the athleticism and skill to stop the run without gimmicks. Take Houston
WAYNE ROOT
Chairman - Texans
Passing on Hoop
Dr. Bob:
Denver (-1.5) 26 HOUSTON 23
05:15 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Dec-13
Stats Matchup
Denver is an improved team thanks to a switch they made on the defensive side of the ball in week 10 – moving Hamza Abdullah into the starting lineup in place of Nick Ferguson and putting more emphasis on stopping the run (Abdullah is better in run support). The Broncos allowed 5.1 ypr and 6.2 yards per play in their first 8 games while rating at 0.8 yppl worse than average, but they’ve yielded just 3.7 ypr and 4.6 yppl (although to teams that would combine to average only 4.4 yppl against an average team) in 5 games since making the move. Houston is going with Sage Rosenfels at quarterback for the injured Matt Schaub again this week and there isn’t any difference in value between the two quarterbacks. Rosenfels is actually better on a compensated yards per pass play basis (6.6 yppp against teams that would allow just 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback) but he is more interception prone than Schaub. Overall, my math model makes this game a pick if WR Brandon Stokley plays for Denver and favors Houston by 1 points if he doesn’t (he’s a game time decision with a bad knee). I’ll lean with Denver regardless given that Houston is coming off a nice win over Tampa Bay last week and the Texans are just 7-17 ATS in their history the next week after a win, including 1-9 ATS against a team with a losing record.
Frank Rosenthal
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 13, 2007
NFL WEEK # 15
BRONCOS VS TEXANS
251 BRONCOS-1 SB+
OVER 47 SB
NBA
501 WIZARDS+6 SB+
UNDER 202.5 SB
504 LAKERS-5 SB
COLLEGE HOOPS
506 MISS ST-5 SB
Tony Stoffo's
Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Florida at St. Louis
Time: 8:35 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: St. Louis (+ML-150)
Line Source: HILTON
Posted on: December 13, 2007 @ 10:47:17 AM EST
NHL Game of the Month Florida at St Louis One of my top rated situational trends in the NHL goes here favoring the Blues for tonight. Play On - Home Favorites of -200 or less against the money line (St Louis) - after a close loss by 1 goal in their previous game against opponent after losing their previous game in overtime. This powerful trend as gone 39-5 over the past 5 seasons hitting at an incredible 89% Plus is a perfect 3-0 already this season. Plus add in the fact that the Panthers are 13-42 in road games during the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons makes St Louis my highly recommended play for tonight