DOCS - HOOPS
3 Unit Play. #710 Take Duke -5 over Pittsburgh (7:00 pm ESPN) The Panthers have made a living in recent years building up the record by playing cupcakes, but will get all that they can handle today against Duke at the Garden. Duke has a great record when playing at New York and has too much quickness for Pittsburgh on Thursday. Duke has won 15 of 20 games at the Garden including seven straight. Duke is better then Pittsburgh on both sides of the court and will be able to put up 80+ points thus allowing them to cover this small number. Take Duke and watch your money grow.
4 Unit Play. #733 Take SE Missouri State -4 over Jacksonville State (8:30 pm) Alabama, not Florida is the site of this Ohio Valley Conference match-up between the Redhawks and the Gamecocks. SE Missouri State already has to victories on the road this season and has yet to lose a game in OVC play. The Gamecocks are allowing over 80 points per game and they have yet to record a victory against a Division One team. Their two victories of the season have come against Tennessee Temple and Berry College. This will be a double-digit victory and we collect big in the process.
Tony Mathew's Free College Basketball Selection for December 20, 2007.
Matchup: Citadel vs. Washington State
Selection: Washington State -32
Explanation: We will lay the points with Washington State as they face-off against Citadel in Thursday's College Basketball contest.
Washington State has a huge advantage on defense. Citadel is allowing opponents to score an average of 87.5 points per game, while Washington State is allowing opponents to score an average of only 52.4 points per game. That means that the Washington State defense is allowing opponents to score an average of 35.1 points per game less then the Citadel defense.
Washington State is 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS on the season, and should be able to get another win tonight against a poor Citadel team who is 0-4 on the road.
Take Washington State -32!
Mike Rose - COMP
Navy @ Utah u65.5
The 2007-08 College Bowl season kicks off tonight when the Navy Midshipmen and Utah Utes square off in the Poinsettia Bowl at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, California.
The Midshipmen are coming off another fantastic season that saw them win eight games under the watchful eye of Head Coach Paul Johnson and his staff for the fourth time in six years. Last we saw the Middies, they beat Army for the 6th straight season, which allowed them to capture the Commander in Chief Trophy for the fifth straight season. However, they’ll take the field without HC Johnson for the first time in six years since he accepted the Head Coaching job at Georgia Tech a couple weeks ago. The task of bouncing back from losing the Meineke Car Care Bowl to Boston College last season is now in the hands of Johnson ‘s longtime assistant Ken Niumatalolo.
As for the Utes, they got off to a very slow start this season only winning one of their first four games, but they scratched together eight straight wins before the “Holy War” with BYU in their final game of the season. They had the Cougars on the ropes, but allowed a game winning TD drive in the final 30 seconds and suffered their first loss since September in the process.
Utah opened up as 10-point favorites in this spot with the ‘Total’ set at 67.5. Navy money has lowered that spread to 8 and the ‘Total’ has been bet down to 65.
This is the highest posted 'Total' of the season for the Utes, but it's well warranted. Navy boasts an atrocious stop unit that's had problems keeping its opponent off the scoreboard (37 PPG), save for Army who they just flat out own right now. Utah runs a power brand of football offensively, much like the Middies, but they can pass the ball unlike the aforementioned Midshipmen. That being said, I'm expecting the final score of this game to come in on the low side of this 'Total'. Utah by no means wants to take part in a shoot-out with this Navy club. If it happens, they have a much better chance of losing this game outright. Instead, the Utes will look to pound the ball offensively with RB Mack and take what it can get from its passing game when the Middies adjust for the run. Defensively, they'll look to make amends after Air Force (another option/wishbone attack) gouged them way back in September. They’ve only allowed opponents to rush for 91 YPG their L/3 contests, and Navy’s offense will certainly start to press if the Utes force them to pass the ball (Navy offense ranked dead last in the country passing the ball). Look for P Louis Sakoda to play a major role in this game as well pinning the Midshipmen deep in their own territory all game long forcing them to go the length of the field on a number of occasions. This will simply wear the Middies offensive attack out, and play right into the hands of the Utes who want to be very physical tonight and control the tempo of the game from the opening kick.
Ben Burns - COMP
Game: Navy at Utah Dec 20 2007 9:00PM
Prediction: over
Reason: Created in 2005, the Pointsetta Bowl is played annually at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego. It features a team from the Mountain West Conference and an "at-large team." Due to fact that there are several naval bases in and around San Diego and due to an agreement with the Pointsetta Bowl, if eligible, that at-large berth belongs to Navy. That's the case this season, as the Midshipmen will square off against the Utah Utes, this year's representative from the Mountain West Conference.
Both teams bring identical 8-4 records into this rather interesting matchup. Navy boasts a high-powered offense but has a weak defense. Utah has a strong defense but a mediocre offense. So, should we expect a high-scoring or a low-scoring contest? Well, an over/under line in the mid-60s tells us that the oddsmaker's are expecting some fireworks. I agree with them.
The last (and only) time that the Midshipmen were in the Pointsetta Bowl, they combined with Colorado State for a whopping 81 points. Naturally, that game finished well above the total, which was 59. Including that result, four of their last five bowl games have finished above the number. This year's Navy team has seen the "over" go 4-2 in six road games with an average combined score of 79 points. The Midshipmen have put up 35 or more points in five straight games, averaging 49 points all by themselves during that stretch. With the exception of Army, they haven't been able to stop anyone though, allowing 179 combined points to Delaware, Notre Dame and North Texas during a 3-game stretch last month. Note that the Midshipmen saw the "over" go 4-0 as underdogs this season, bringing the "over" to 10-3 the last 13 times they were getting points.
The Utes closed out their season with a loss vs. archrival BYU. That's noteworthy as we find the "over" at a highly profitable 17-4 the last 21 times (which had a total) they were coming off a loss vs. a conference opponent. Its also worth mentioning that the Utes have seen the "over" go 4-1 the last five times that they played with two week's rest in between games. The number has come down a couple of points from its opener, giving us some additional line value. Expect a high-scoring game. Consider a play on the OVER
FREE PICK FROM ALLEN EASTMAN - Take ‘Over’ 65.5 Navy vs. Utah (Poinsettia Bowl)
Few teams can stop Navy’s rushing attack while the Midshipmen’s defense has been as bad as the offense is good. Utah has a much better balance than Navy, but I think this one will come down to the team that has the final possession.
Karl "G Man" Garrett Comp
Both schools sport similar records, as the 'Zags bring a 9-2 mark into this tilt against a Sooners team that sports an 8-3 ledger. The difference in this game is going to be the strength of schedule, as Gonzaga has definitely hoed the tougher row up to now, playing the likes of Texas Tech, Virginia Tech, St. Joe's, UConn, and Washington State already, while Oklahoma's toughest two battles have come against Memphis, and USC - both losses.
The Sooners have also dropped a game to Stephen F. Austin recently, which tells the G-Man that coach Jeff Capel still has a ways to go with this year's OU edition.
Mark Few's team has played in plenty of hostile venues in the past, and already this year, so don't expect the Bulldogs to be fazed playing this game in Oklahoma City.
I am taking Gonzaga in this near pick spot, as I fully believe the 'Zags are going to win this game outright.
4* GONZAGA
(on a 1* to 5* basis)
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Utah 44 Navy 21
Utah (1 star)
Vegas Sports Experts
The VSE NFL Power Play for Thursday is:
Take Pittsburgh (-7.5) over St. Louis (NFL Power Play)
8:00 PM EST
Pittsburgh
• 20-6 SU as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
• 6-1 SU coming off an upset loss as a home favorite
• 10-2 SU in non-conference games
ATS=Against the Spread
SU=Straight Up
Comps
Mike Wynn
New Jersey/Miami Under 189
Platinum Plays
CBB: the OKLAHOMA SOONERS - 2 Over the Gonzaga Bulldogs
Razor Sharp
NEW JERSEY/MIAMI UNDER the total of 189
Totals 4U
SOUTH ALABAMA - 16
Big Tme Sports
LAKERS / CAVS OVER 205
# 1 Sports
MISSISSIPPI - 7 1/2
Nevada Sharpshooters
GONZAGA +2.5 OVER OKLAHOMA
Huddle up Sports
Arizona -3
Arthur Ralph
Over the total SL Rams
TV Hotline
PITTSBURGH +5
Bud Wiser Picks
TULANE
Dark Horse
The Citadel +32 over Washington St
Michael Cannon
Thursday's Plays...
25 Dime –
NAVY
Take the points with Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl against Utah.
Forget about all the talk surrounding the loss of coach Paul Johnson, who left to take the Georgia Tech job. That’s because Navy promoted Ken Niumatalolo and he has overseen the triple-option offense for 10 years.
The transition should be seamless as far as the offense is concerned, and considering the success Navy had running the ball this year it should keep them within this number.
Utah bounced back from some early season injuries to finish 7-1 down the stretch, but facing Navy can be a tricky situation as nobody else in the country, let alone the MWC, runs this kind of offense.
This could also be a letdown spot for the Utes after losing to rival Byu in the season finale. That was the game they put their heart and soul into, and the primarily pass-oriented Cougars used the running game to ultimately win, 17-10. Byu rushed for 155 yards on 33 carries in that game and it’s safe to assume Navy will easily double that output tonight.
The Midshipmen are nothing special on defense, and I expect Utah to ring up the points, but quarterback Brian Johnson was taking cortisone shots about a week and a half ago for a chronically aching throwing shoulder and it remains to be seen how effective the passing game will be as a result.
Navy’s triple-option will keep them in it until the end.
Take the points with Navy.
10 Dime –
MISSISSIPPI
Lay the points with Mississippi tonight on the road over DePaul.
Ol’ Miss plays an up-tempo game that DePaul can’t match. The Rebels have big Dwayne Curtis who can get up and down the floor a lot better than DePaul’s Wesley Green. The fast pace of this game should wear down DePaul and I expect Ol’ Miss to pull away in the second half.
DePaul doesn’t have enough shooters or good enough ball-handlers to sustain good offensive production at this pace, so laying the points with the unbeaten Rebels is the smart play.
Take Mississippi for the road win and cover.
PITT
Take the points with Pitt tonight when they battle Duke at Madison Square Garden.
Both teams come into this game unbeaten, so it should make for a good matchup.
Pitt has opened up its offense this year, playing a more up-tempo style and running at every opportunity. The difference with this team from year’s past is they have the players capable of playing this style, so it’s no surprise their offensive production has gone up.
Freshman DeJuan Blair is establishing himself as a beast in the middle. He can control the boards and also run the floor with the best of them, giving Pitt the advantage when they want to run.
The Panthers also have good quickness in the backcourt, which will help them harass Duke’s ball handlers all game long.
Pitt also has several players on its roster who hail from the New York area, so playing in Madison Square Garden is always a big motivational tool for them.
This game figures to be tight throughout, so taking the points is the play here.
Take Pitt plus the points and don’t be surprised to see them pull off the outright win.
5 Dime –
RAMS
Take the points with the Rams tonight when they host the Steelers.
Are the Steelers the better team?
Yes.
But what have they done this year on the road to make you think they’ll cover this number tonight?
Absolutely nothing.
The Steelers have lost to inferior teams outright on the highway this year. Teams like the Cardinals, Broncos and Jets.
Now they hit the road after playing back-to-back physical and emotional games against the Patriots and Jaguars. Pittsburgh is a beat-up team right now and I just can’t trust them laying this kind of number here.
The Rams certainly have the capability of keeping this game close with running back Steven Jackson and quarterback Marc Bulger. They also own a sparkling 8-1 SUATS mark in last home games, including 7-0 SUATS when playing against non-division foes.
Take the points with the Rams as the Steelers struggle again on the road.
Deuce True
Odds Makers Error
Pittsburgh -7.5
If you can buy the hook buy it, if not lay the money on the steelers to take care of business by at least -10
Navy -7.5
Utah's defense has been susceptible to the run and they don't bode well against the triple option look. Even with the loss of Paul Johnson, Navy's offense will continue to roll as the ground game has been the staple to their entire existences as a football program.
Drew Gordon
Thursday Plays:
1. 200,000* Utah
2. 50,000* Rams
3. 50,000* Pittsburgh
4. 50,000* Heat
1. Utah- This one comes down to defense, plain and simple. We all know both these teams can put points on the board in a hurry, the question is can the Utes defense slow down the Midshipmen's vaunted option attack? The answer is yes and here's why:
First things first, despite their success, the Midshipmen are clearly a one-dimensional team. Problem for them is they are facing an excellent Utah defense, which allowed just 7.5 ppg over their last 4 games, with almost a month to prepare for the option attack. Also of note, DT Gabe Long is listed as probable, which is great news for the Utes, as he's their best run-stuffer and a mammoth for Navy's smallish unit to contend with.Utah on the other hand, has a lot more balanced attack, featuring dual-threat Brian Johnson (listed as probable and will play) and 1100+ yard rusher Darrell Mack (13 TDs). I mention this because Navy's paper mache' defense has no chance at slowing down this Utes attack. Because they're a service academy, their stop-unit is smaller than most, and really struggled all season, allowing 36 ppg on 438 total yards per game. Look for Utah to march up and down the field on this Navy defense all game long.Bottom line, while Navy's offense has been rock-solid this season, they're about to run into a well-prepared, well-rested, Utah defense. On the other side of the coin, there's little hope the Midshipmen's defense will be able to contain the Utes for long, as the margin grows, Navy's running attack becomes its own worst enemy. Utah rolls!Take Utah comfortably over Navy as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Rams- This is a great spot for the Rams, hosting a sputtering Steelers team that's just 2-4 SUATS on the road this season, with losses at Arizona, at Denver, and the New York Jets already this season.Critics will argue the Rams are 3-11 team led by a gimpy quarterback, which is all true. However, this gimpy quarterback happens to Marc Bulger, who's going to play and has always excelled indoors, posting a 97 QB rating and throwing 33 TDs versus 13 picks over his last 20 indoors. Make no mistake, the entire Rams offense is predicated on speed, which is exactly what they'll get in the controlled conditions of the Edward Jones Dome.Now let's talk Pittsburgh, as the Steelers have looked a lot more vulnerable over their last several games than at any other time this season. In fact, they're allowing more points (24 to 22) than the Rams defense over their last 3 games. And scoring only 2 points more than the Rams (19 to 17) over that span as well. With the Steelers defense struggling a bit, expect heavy doses of Steven Jackson, which can only mean good things for this Rams team.Bottom line, while I expect the Steelers to win this game, the Rams offense is too good at home to lay this many points with Pittsburgh. Steelers looked good last week at Jacksonville offensively, but their defense was shredded by Garrard and company... More of the same tonight, as this one is a lot closer than Vegas wants you to believe.Take the Rams plus the points over the Steelers in this NFL match up.
3. Pittsburgh- Underestimate the Panthers at your own risk in this spot, as they've got a lot to prove and are highly motivated against a solid, but still beatable Duke squad. Its true Pitt has yet to face a Top-25 team, but wins at Duquesne and at Washington aren't gimme's either.The difference in this one comes down to style of play, as both teams can score, but they do it in different ways. A more perimter-based attack from Duke has been their calling card, but they'll be hard-pressed to shoot their usual 50% against an aggressive Panthers defense. Pitt is allowing just 58 ppg on 38% shooting, including 28% from 3-point, which is significant because you have to be able to defend the 3-point line against the Blue Devils.The Panthers use a more "classic" style of play, attacking from the inside/out with forwards Sam Young and DeJuan Blair. Their 3 guard attack of Cook, Fields, and Ramon may not share the pedigree of Duke's backcourt, but they are effective and know how to take care of the basketball (102 assists to 42 turnovers). By slowing down the tempo with their inside game, and playing hard-nosed perimeter defense on the other end, look for Pitt to keep this game competitive throughout.Bottom line, both teams are playing with a lot of confidence, and I see no reason why this game doesn't come down to the waning seconds. The Panthers maybe unproven thus far, but you better believe they're looking at this contest as a chance for a signature win. We'll take the points, but don't be surprised if Pitt walks away with the outrigth upset here.Take Pittsburgh plus the points over Duke in this college hoops match up.
4. Heat- Coming off a overtime loss yesterday, in a game where they lost Alonzo Mourning for the season, siding with the Heat here may seem risky, but its really not and here's why:First of all, the injury to Mourning is significant, but the fact its going to force an incredibly lazy Shaquille O'neal to get up off his ass and play more miuntes is a good thing. O'neal is more effective when he can wear on an opponent over the course of 4 quarters, and the Nets have absolutely no one that can stop him. At the very least Krstic was able to force O'neal to guard the perimeter, but with him out the Nets are extremely vulnerable down-low.Second, Dwayne Wade is back, dropping 36 points, 10 assists and 6 rebounds on the Hawks yesterday, look for Wade to shred a much slower Nets backcourt. Kidd and Carter are still solid players, but are both showing signs of age, and Carter ankle has been an issue for most of the season. Wade is one of the few players capable of single-handedly taking over a game, and he steps up to the plate once again tonight.Finally, while the Heat has been nothing special at home this year, there's no question they "get up" for the Nets, going 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS over their last 9 meetings with New Jersey. Heat need this win badly, and I say they ride Wade and O'neal right to the W and our payday tonight in Miami.Take the Heat over the Nets in this NBA match up.
BEN BURNS
Tampa Bay Lightning
MIKE LINEBACK
4* Oklahoma Spread -1.5 for Game -110
5* Teaser: Football Mixed 2-6 Team Pt Teaser -110
UTAH - 1 1/2 AND PITTSBURGH - 1 1/2
KEVIN ONIEL
Interesting matchup between two impressive programs that have been led by impressive coaches in recent years. Navy’s success has been in their triple option running attack, which goes for a 352 rushing yards per game. The system implemented by Paul Johnson has been impressive enough to earn him the Georgia Tech job, and the Academy brass was quick to name offensive coordinator Ken Niumatalolo as head coach. With 10 years of experience in Annapolis and having played under Johnson in college when he led the Rainbows to their first every bowl game, he is a good choice and popular among the players. 8 of 11 assistants are
staying next year. Johnson called the plays, so there may be some adjustment there.
Navy’s defense has been beaten up all season,permitting an astronomical 37 points per game on almost 440 yards against a weak schedule. The Middies were beat up on that side of the ball and gave up 30 or more points in 8 of their 12 games.They did hold Army to only a field goal in their most recent game, but that may speak more to the ineptitude of the boys from West Point.Utah, on the other hand, allows only 16 points and 320 yards per game. 37 points and 437 yards. The Utes have had good success slowing down the Falcons over the years. The Ute offense was devastated by injuries early but Utah rebounded in conference play and won 6 consecutive games before losing a heartbreaker in the final minute against archrival and conference champion BYU.Brian Johnson missed a couple of early games with
injury and then led the team down the stretch.Johnson is not the dual threat he was a couple of years ago, as his high rushing game of the year was 37 yards against Louisville. He ran for more than that 8 times in 2005 but the injuries (missed 2006 and two games this year) have changed his game.Navy’s quick hire should avoid some the continuity problems that other programs have had when a
coach leaves, but that D is terrible. 3rd year Ute coach Kyle Wittingham was the DC here under former coaches Ron McBride and Urban Meyer. In their 5 bowl games since 2001, Whittingham’s D’s have held opponents to 6, 0, 7, 10, and 13 points.
But we’re not eager to lay big points in a minor bowl game. With Utah’s offense far from explosive and their amazing history on D in bowl games, we’ll look for this game go stay under the high total