Bob Balfe
College Football
Navy/Utah Over 64.5
Navy has lost Paul Johnson to GTech, but this system will not change and the play calling is very much the same. RUN THE FOOTBALL. Navy will also benefit from playing in San Diego which is a huge Navy city. The stands will be at least 75% Midshipmen fans which does matter a lot. Utah prides themselves on defense, but I don't care who you are or how good your defense is you are just not going to stop Navy. Utah doesn't have a great offense, but should be able to rackup points against a very bad Navy defense. This game will be controlled by Navy. If they score a lot so will Utah its just that simple. Both teams are playing to win this game unlike some squads that evaluate talent for the upcoming season. Let's hope for a fun shootout style game.
(All hoops wagers should be 1/3 of your average football wager)
NBA Basketball
Nuggets -7.5 over Rockets
College Basketball
E Tennessee State +9.5 over Georgia
Joe Wiz
CBB
DePaul +7
ATS Lock Club
4 units on Utah (-7 1/2) over Navy
IndianCowboy
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Elon College Phoenix @ Pennsylvania Quakers - Thursday December 20, 2007 7:00 pm
Pick: 3 units (Normal) ATS: Elon College Phoenix +3.5 (-108)
This is not going to be a popular pick, but there is no reason that Penn should be laying points to anyone right now. I follow Ivy League basketball very closely and UPenn is actually laying points to a team given tha they have won just 2 games and they come against the Citadel who are outisde the top 300 and Navy who are outside the top 250. Frankly, Elon is a sound team that I have ranked in the top 175 and I have already taken them once against Georgia on the road and I will take them again here. Their other win against Monmouth on the road is against a team that is outside the top 300 as well. Elon however is a .500 team that has yet to pick up a road win but keep in mind they have played Virginia Tech, Georgia and VCU. Elon has yet to pick up a road win here, but they are a 125 spots better than UPenn in the power rankings and I will take my chances with Elon to pick up their first win on the road as this is a solid public fade. With Wake covering as the huge public favorite yesterday, I find it tough to think that UPenn will cover as a huge public favorite today. Upenn has lost their last 4 covers and Elon should bounce-back well after their loss against Chattanooga.
spreitzer afternoon knockout
Scott Spreitzer's CBB Afternoon Knockout! (56-21, 73%!)
I'm laying the points with the high-flying Ole Miss Rebels. Andy Kennedy has made a quicker than expected turnaround with the Ole Miss program and he's doing it with a quick and uptempo style. The Rebels are scoring nearly 90 PPG, topping 84 points in five of their eight games. They'll face a Depaul team that is more than willing to get involved in uptempo games. Unfortunately for the Blue Demons, they don't have the offensive firepower to keep up. Depaul is just 2-5 SU this season, with their wins coming against Northwestern and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. Depaul has allowed 85.2 PPG in their last five outings. It's a great spot for the "Runnin'" Rebels of Ole Miss and I'm laying the points. Please note the 5:30pm ET start time with the game being played in Puerto Rico. Ole Miss on Thursday! Thanks! GL! Scott.
Brandon Lovell
5* NCAAF Navy +7.5
5* NCAAB Miami - Ohio +9.5
5* NCAAB St. Mary -9.5
Sorry guys. I take full responsibility for last night. That was just an UGLY performance by Old Dominion. We are finishing the month strong with NFL, College Ball, and Bowl Season.
Alex Smart
Denver Nuggets -6.0 / 3 units
THE REAL ANIMAL
Pick title: 4* Utah 'UNDER' 65
Pick Date: 12/20/2007
Pick description:
In reviewing Utah’s bowl history I found it interesting the Utes are extremely stingy when it comes to allowing points and the ‘UNDER’ was a perfect 5-0 in bowls since the 2001 season. In their five bowl wins and covers, Utah allowed a total of 36 points. This year Utah is #15 in the nation in total defense and was exceptional against the run down the stretch. In their final seven games, the Utes yielded just 155, 81, 37, 136, 94, 62, and 26 yards rushing (average 84.4). While Navy gets all the attention when it comes to running the football, it should be pointed out that Utah averaged over 200 yards on the ground in their eight wins this year. It’s kind of rare to see a total in the 60’s when the favored team just completed a regular-season against far better throwing offenses (Mountain West) allowing just 15.6 points 320 points per game. In the “here’s something I bet you didn’t know category,” only Ohio State allowed fewer touchdowns than Utah this year. The Utes permitted 20 touchdown, four fewer than Virginia Tech. Utah also was #3 in the nation in scoring defense. That statistic is really impressive again considering their starting QB missed 3 ½ games and their #1 rusher was lost in the opener to injury. Brian Johnson has really had to modify his game as Utah’s starting quarterback. There was a time when he was a two-headed monster and was an elite rushing QB. But because of several leg injuries, that’s not the case anymore. His high this year in rushing was just 37 yards against Louisville. By comparison, Johnson ran for more than 37 yards eight times in the 2005 season. Utah is successful on the ground because of their system and not Johnson, although his passing capability keeps the other side honest, something Navy’s can’t say. Also worth noting is bowl totals are always inflated because the public loves playing ‘OVERS’. Utah is #81 in the country in total offense and I wouldn’t exactly use the term “explosive” as an adjective. But they have the capability of controlling the clock. Coach Whittingham is no dummy and he knows the best defense against Navy’s vaunted rushing attack is keeping them off the field. I don’t think the Utah defense is getting near the respect they are entitled to with this high total. Navy is #109 in scoring defense allowing 36.5 points per game. But I think some of that was fatigue and with an extra 20 days to prepare, they may be better tonight. Meanwhile although Navy hired their offensive coordinator as head coach, it should be pointed out that Coach Johnson did the play calling for the offense and of course now is at Georgia Tech. 4* ‘UNDER’ the total of 65.
Zen Gambler
NFL CFB NBA Thursday Monster Lock 250*
1-3 Last Night, and the trend continues... Havent won on a Wednesday, 84-54 NBA YTD
NBA Monster Lock 250*
Cleveland Cavaliers +2.5 (I believe that Cavs will pull off this one... Granting the strength that their homecourt advantage has on them... Moreover unlike the Bulls the Cavs do more penetration inside which will make the game harder for the big men of the Lakers..)
NFL Monster Lock 250*
Pittsburgh Steelers @ St. Louis Rams under 43.5 (Nice spot for the Steelers to win here SU and ATS.. I think Steelers defense will win this one for them..)
CFB Monster Lock 250* (Poinsettia Bowl)
Navy @ Utah under 65.0 (If Utah can control both lines... Under is an easy bet... Well see how my first CFB Bowl Lock goes...)
Other Plays:
LA Lakers @ Cleveland Cavaliers over 205.0
Payifyouwin
1000* OPENING BOWL LOCK
Utah Utes
1000* THURSDAY NIGHT LOCK
Pittsburgh Steelers
C & P Experts 12/20/07 Thursday
Cbb:
Miami Oh +10
Pittsburgh +5.5
Cfb:
Utah -8
(11-4 Last 6days)
Wolkosky Milan
329-266-13 last one hundred seventeen days
3-0 Yesterday
Today:
10* PIT/STL UNDER 43½
10* UTAH -7½
10* MIAMI -2
10* LAL/CLE UNDER 206
DR BOB NFL
Pittsburgh 20 ST. LOUIS 13 UNDER 44.0
20-Dec-07 05:15 PM Pacific Time
The side on this game looks like it should be left alone, but the Under looks like a very good play. I just don’t understand how they can post a total this high. Pittsburgh’s games have averaged 39.2 total points this season and the Rams’ games have averaged 40.6 points this year. The NFL average for total points is 42.8 points and both teams average below that number, so how can you have a total above the NFL average? Pittsburgh’s 39.2 total points average comes against a schedule that combines to average 45 total points per game, so the Steelers’ games are 5.8 points lower scoring than what a normal team would average against the same schedule. The Steelers have played a couple of extreme bad weather games – at home against Miami and last week against Jacksonville – and taking those games out gives Pittsburgh a compensated total scoring of 4.2 points less than average instead of -5.8 points. The Rams have totaled 40.6 points against teams that combine to average 42.7 total points, so St. Louis games are 2.1 point lower scoring than average. If Steelers’ games are 4.2 points lower scoring than average and Rams’ games are 2.1 points lower scoring than average then you would expect a game that is 6.3 points lower scoring than average, which is 36.5 points. But, the median total is a bit more than 1 point less than the average total points, so that would give us 35.5 points or so as a total. The games in the dome have historically been 1 point higher scoring than Rams’ games overall since 1995 (when they started playing in St. Louis in the dome), so that puts us back at 36.5 points. Using projected yardage and adjusting for current personnel (like Stephen Jackson being back for the Rams) actually results in a projected 33 ½ points. Pittsburgh’s below average offense (5.2 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) will move the ball at a decent clip against a Rams’ defense that is 0.2 yppl worse than average (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team). The Rams offense, however, doesn’t figure to score much against a very good Steelers’ defense that has dominated bad attacks this season. St. Louis is a bit better running the ball in 6 games since Steven Jackson returned from injury (they are 0.2 ypr worse than average for the season but average running the ball the last 6 weeks), but Marc Bulger is still horrible. Bulger has averaged only 5.1 yards per pass play this season (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback). The Rams are 0.6 yards per play worse than an average team and they’ll be up against a pissed off Steelers’ defense that is 0.7 yppl better than average (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). St. Louis has faced 3 good defensive teams this season (Tampa Bay, Dallas, and Baltimore with their starting secondary intact) and they scored 3 points against the Bucs, 7 points against the Cowboys, and 3 points against the Ravens in those games. The Rams’ median points scored this year is 13.5 points and they aren’t likely to top that against a Steelers’ defense that has allowed an average of average of just 9 points in 5 games against below average offensive teams (Buffalo, SF, Baltimore, NY Jets, and Miami). If the Rams are not likely to score more than 13 points then Pittsburgh would have to score more than 30 points to approach 43 ½ total points in this game. That could happen, but Pittsburgh has scored 30 plus points only 4 times in 14 games and the Rams have allowed 30 points or more only 4 times in 14 games.
I’ll go UNDER in a 3-Star Best Bet at 43 points or higher and in a 2-Star Best Bet from 42 ½ points to 41 points
Tony Mathews
Tony's Thursday Night (Navy / Utah) Poinsettia Bowl Winner!!! ["Line Error"]
Tony Mathews is now on a 16-4 College Football Run, and is hitting over 67% in College Football this season! In addition, Tony Mathew's hit over 76% in the College Football Bowl Games last season! There is a HUGE LINE ERROR in Thursday Night's College Football Poinsettia Bowl between Navy & Utah! Tony Mathew's is on the RIGHT SIDE of this EASY WINNER! A note from Tony Mathew's... "We have received some very Important Information from our Sources about this Navy/Utah game! This one is a MUST BET because it's a GUARANTEED WINNER!" Tony Mathew's offers a 100% Guarantee that this pick will WIN, or his Friday Night New Orleans Bowl Game of the Month will be yours absolutely FREE! Your order must be placed by 9:00 P. M.
Tony's Thursday Night (Steelers / Rams) NFL Winner!!!
["Big Game Alert"]
Tony Mathews CASHED IN his Monday Night Football Game of the Month, and is now on a 28-12 NFL Run! Tony Mathew's continues his success as he has a HUGE PLAY in Thursday Night's NFL matchup between the Steelers & Rams! A note from Tony Mathew's... "My Sources & I absolutely LOVE this Steelers/Rams game! Clearly one of the easiest NFL Winners of the Season!"
CBB = Pitt +6
NFL = Rams +
CFB = Navy +
RAS
*Three side plays/no totals Thursday:
Montana at Cal State Fullerton (-5.5) - 7:00pm Pacific - Game #735-736
Fullerton will finally play its first lined home game of the season tonight. They enter the game 5-2 with both losses coming on the road vs an improving Central Michigan team by 3 and at Arizona. They beat this same Montana team on the road by 9 about three weeks ago, and that was before top all around player Cutley had fully recovered from a broken ankle suffered at the start of fall practice. Cutley has now played in last four games and continues to gain strength. Washington State transfer scoring guard Josh Akognon is averaging 20.3ppg and despite losing leading scorer Bobby Brown to graduation, the Titans actually have more depth in the backcourt this year. This team is loaded with quickness which is sure to give a slower Montana team fits. The Grizzlies will be playing their third straight road game in a six day span including an OT loss at Pacific five days ago. In last game they lost by 11 at Santa Clara in a game that was not competitive. Game announcers repeatedly commented that Griz leading scorer Hasquet (3 for 10 in loss) was battling an obvious ankle injury. Fullerton has always been a much better team at home so their solid play on the road this year is likely a sign of good things to come. Give the points.
Play: Cal State Fullerton -5.5 1.5 UNITS
Northern Arizona (-9.5) vs Furman - 4:30pm Pacific - Game #739-740
The Lumberjacks turned the corner with their December 1 win over a pretty good Western Kentucky team. They have now won 4 of 5 games also including blowout of Cal Poly and road win at San Jose State. Senior forward Ryan McCurdy missed a three game stretch due to injury but has been back for last four producing double doubles in each of last two games. NAU's top four scorers consist of three seniors and a junior but two promising freshman guards Johnson and Jones have emerged to add talent and depth that was lacking. NAU can go 9 deep and is a live team going forward. Furman comes in as one of the youngest teams in the nation. Of 13 available players, 7 are freshman and 4 are sophomores. They are 0-8, have been on the road almost the entire season, and now have to make another long trip to play here. One of their few upperclassmen regulars and few big bodies, starting center Stanley Jones, missed last game and is out indefinitely with a stomach problem. This leaves the Paladins without their top five players from last year. They will start four freshman tonight and be very undersized. NAU features a good sized frontcourt with two polished post scorers as well as plenty of good shooters to beat a zone. Give the points.
Play: Northern Arizona -9.5 1 UNIT
Southeast Missouri State (-4) at Jacksonville State - 5:30pm Pacific - Game #733-734
SEMO still undervalued despite 3-0 OVC record and a chance to get off to their best conference start in 8+ years. The Redhawks feature four returning starters and plenty of talented newcomers including Colorado transfer Calvin Williams and former Chattanooga player Jaycen Herring, both who have made immediate impacts. This team can go 10-11 deep which suits their very high tempo style well. They are now in the second year of the system and the added experience is paying off. Jax State has not yet beaten a D-1 team and enter this game shorthanded. Top returning player Dorien Brown (academics) was ruled ineligible before last game and is out for the season while second leading scorer Jeremy Bynum missed last game with an undisclosed injury and is very questionable tonight. Jax State has lost each of their last two home games by 14 points each to Central Arkansas and Murray State. They trailed the Murray State game by double digits at half and never threatened with less than 1000 in attendance. Look for SEMO to maintain momentum and go to 4-0 in conference play. Give the points.
Play: Southeast Missouri State -4 for 1 UNIT
Cokin
fat man release..............navy,duke
champ club(highest rated play)............ole miss
window..........................elon
3 star action play.............se miss st
under the hat..............lakers
Feist
personal best.................st marys
inner ciecle...................troy
5 star executive.............ole miss
personal best.................cavs
inner circle....................rockets
total...........................hous over
5 star executive gow..........nets
platinum..............navy
Trace Fields
4*...Duke