vegas-runner | NBA Sides
double-dime bet MIA -2.0 vs NJN
Analysis:
** 2* WAGER **
Miami comes into this one having split their last 6 games and if they can only sure up their defense, they would definately be able to get some more wins because the offense has been clicking...shooting 47% and scoring 102 pts in their last 5 games, while holding opponents to 42% Fg's at home...NJ has been getting outscored by 6 on the road and is just 1-4 their last 5 games overall, and just haven't been able to do anything..they have been getting out-rebounded, are shooting only 66% FT, and allowing teams to get to the stripe 32 times per game...that should be enough for the Heat to get the home win and cover in this one and have already beaten the Nets in NJ 91-87 a month ago while shooting only 40% from the field, and allowed the Nets to get to the line 38 times in that one..I feel that this one will be a lot more 1 sided tonight...
vegas-runner | NBA Total
dime bet MIA / NJN Over 188.0
Analysis:
** 2* Forum Comp **
**Upgraded to a 2* **
vegas-runner | NBA Total
triple-dime bet CLE / LAL Over 205.0 Analysis:
*** 3* NBA PLAY of the DAY WAGER ***
Yes fellas, tonight our NBA Play of the Day is on the Total in this Prime-Time TNT match-up..and although we have mostly been wagering on totals based almost exclusively on the fact that their number differs from ours, since this one will also be a side wager for us tonight, I decided to break it down a bit here...
The Lakers come in 15-9 and 4-1 over their last 5 games and have been lighting up the scoreboard averaging 109 pts per game and shooting 47% on the road...they have been also averaging 21 3pt shots and connecting on 37%, even better than in LA...and as long as they continue to get to the FT line and get us all those ez points with no time off the clock, we should be able to get out side and total in on this game...Cleveland is 11-15 overall this year, but I like the fact that they have been averaging 101 pts per game at home, which for a defensive minded team like they have us thinking they are...they have been allowing 46% FG's and 102 pts...and defensively from the perimeter, they have allowed their opponents to connect on almost 40% of their shots...and I also feel that Cleve should also be able to get to the stripe in this one...
Bottom line, I believe that we should see a much more wide open style game with both teams running thier offenses, and not playing as tight defensively..that style suits us perfectly to not only get the OVER in, but also cash on the Side Wager..
vegas-runner | NBA Sides
double-dime bet LAL 2.0 BetUS vs CLE
Analysis:
** 2* WAGER **
* Analysis is on the 3* Total Wager in this match-up...
vegas-runner | NBA Money Line
triple-dime bet703 LAL (-130)BetUS vs 704 CLE
Analysis:
*** 3* NBA TEASER of the DAY ***
LAKERS +3 & OVER 200 LA/CLE (3*) Teaser...
vegas-runner | CBB Sides
double-dime bet Duke -5.0 vs Pittsburgh
Analysis:
** 2* WAGER **
**Remember, 5 is a very "key" number in both college and pro basketball and we hit at a high enough % to overcome the extra vig that we lay at times...so please do not listen to any kind of square advice that suggests otherwise**
Bottom line, Duke just shoots too well for Pitt to be able to hang with them the entire 48 and any lapses by Pitt, will allow the Blue Devils to continue building their lead in this one...and although the number looks a bit high to be giving an Undefeated Team on the road...the level of compitition that they have each faced so far is just miles apart...lets lay it here as Duke should be able to win this one by double-digits which is what my numbers point to exactly...
vegas-runner | CBB Sides
triple-dime bet Tulane 9.0 BetUS vs St. Mary's (Cal.)
Analysis:
*** 3* NCAABB PLAY of the DAY ***
Well fellas, to be truthful...I just Upgraded this to a 3* Wager and the bottom line here remains that this number is just really higher than it should be and with this game being played in Hawaii, the line should have come out much closer to 6.5 or even 6...but instead of breaking down the stats in this one,which also all point to Tulane being able to hang tonight...I want to touch on the reason why this number was deliberately sent out wrong, without the fear of wiseguys grabbing the points and making the books vulnerable...
When there is such a small board like tonight..the oddsmaker knows going in that the teams who will get the most support are the one's that the public perceives to be just so much better than the other, and those that are on Prime-Time TV...well with the 2 ESPN Games getting split action because of the participants in those games...the sportsbook will sit back and collect their vig...but that leaves a few more match-ups that will get the rest of the work...and Tulane/St Mary's qualifies...simply because the betting public believes that St Mary's is just so much better...to further convince the bettors, the oddsmaker sent the line out even higher than it should be, which makes them appear even stronger, and because the sportsbooks are assured a lot of 1 way action in this one, theu could afford to have the sharps like us, send out an order to take Tulane, which will eventually only help to balance their books...this way the oddsmaker earns his check and the books are happy regardless of the outcome...that is where we come in, to sweep up the value because it is definately there...the only reason that this game hasn't gone to 10.5 by now is because each time a 9 comes on the screen, another outfits jumps up and grabs it...now we may see the all the sharps have gotten enough for this game and then the books may elect to raise it some more...but there is no reason why you shouldn't grab the 9 as soon as you can...this one is way Over-Valued.
vegas-runner | CBB Money Line
double-dime bet Gonzaga vs Oklahoma
Analysis:
** 2* TEASER WAGER **
GONZAGA +8 & ELON +8.5 (2*) Teaser...
vegas-runner | CBB Money Line
triple-dime bet Duke vs Pittsburgh
Analysis:
*** 3* NCAABB TEASER of the DAY ***
DUKE pk & TULANE +14 (3*) Teaser...
vegas-runner | CBB Sides
dime bet Jacksonville St. 5.0 vs Southeast Mo. St.
Analysis:
* 2* FORUM COMP *
**UPGRADED to a 2* **
NHL
Scott Rickenbach: Toronto +105
Tom Freese: Dallas +120
Tony Stoffo: Pitt/boston Under 5.5
NCAA BB
Alf Musketa: Missssippi -7
Matt Fargo: E. Tenn. St. +10.5
Jason Johnson: N. Arizona -8
NBA
Jamie Tursini: Denver-6
Mark Lawrwnce: Cleveland -1
Yankee Capper
NFL
2 Units - Pittsburgh Steelers -7 ½
2 Units - Pittsburgh/St. Louis Under 43 ½
NCAA Football
2 Units - Utah -7 ½
NBA
5 Units - LA Lakers -2 ½
NHL
5 Units - Toronto Maple Leafs
5 Units - Detroit Red Wings
1 Units - Phoenix Coyotes
Carolina Sports
Over 65 Navy/utah Opinion Play
Rams+7 Opinion Play
Keith Martin Sports
Illinois Over 115
Ottawa Senators -162
Jacksonville State Under 163
JEFFERSONSPORTS
NCAA FOOTBALL
NAVY+7.5
NCAA HOOPS
FLORIDA ATLANTIC+7.5
ELON+3.5
DUKE-5.5
SE MIZZ ST.-4
NHL
ATLANTA+160 (early release)
KELSO STURGEON FOOTBALL
COLLEGE BOWL PACKAGE
25 Units
Poinsettia Bowl
Qyalcomm Stadium, San Diego, California
Utah (-7 ½) over Navy
Prediction: Utah by 13-14
Chris Jordan
Thursday Night Sweep ...
300* LAKERS - Wow, this looks like a true trap if I ever saw one. But I am going to take the Lakers plus the points against a Cavaliers team that is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in its last four outings and comes in off a disappointing loss to the Knicks last night. Los Angeles is in triple revenge dating back to last season, and though Kobe is playing at about 80 percent, the rest of the team is flourishing at the right time.
Meanwhile, it's becoming clear and evident that Cleveland's off-season business ? or lack thereof ? is catching up with LeBron James, who has absolutely no supporting cast whatsoever. And when you have a Lakers team that is outscoring its hosts by two, and a Cavaliers team that is 6-5 at home but being outscored by a pair when hosting teams, there's no doubt you have to side with Kobe and company.
100* RAMS - There's no doubt in my mind that if Steven Jackson weren't sidelined early in the season, we'd be talking about the Rams and a playoff berth here. But the fact is St. Louis is playing for next season, and I honestly believe the Rams will not fold that easy tonight and simply go away with tails between their legs.
We all know about the vaunted Steelers' defense, but tonight it's likely to be short-handed against a talented Rams offense. Linebacker Clark Haggans and left tackle Marvel Smith aren't expected to play; meanwhile defensive end Travis Kirschke is nursing sore ribs, and that's not good since he's filling in for Aaron Smith, who is out for the rest of the season.
Those are the types of injuries that will make it tough for a run defense attempting to stop Jackson, who has rushed for 862 yards and five touchdowns in 10 games. Last week, he had 143 yards and one touchdown on 23 carries. Plan on Jackson to lead the charge in this win and cover tonight.
100* ARKANSAS STATE - While the hype at Florida Atlantic is resounding these days, let's not lose focus the excitement is because of the bowl game it will play in ? not because of the basketball team. The Owls are 1-5 on the road and are still questionable in giving up 77 points when carrying a suitcase. And after three straight games against non-board teams ? and four in its last five ? Florida Atlantic gets a team that is outscoring its guests by 15 at home and that won last year's meeting by seven points.
This tribe is gunning for another West Division title in this league, and with the Owls coming in riding a 0-4 skid in true road games this season, and the fact six of their seven setbacks have come by double figures, I'll lay the home chalk.
100* NAVY - Nobody has stopped Navy's offense so far, so there's no reason to believe the Utes can do it, despite coming out of the Mountain West with the top scoring defense.
There's a reason Navy coach Paul Johnson's name keeps popping up for coaching vacancies everywhere, and as long as he calls the right plays, the Middies can do their thing with a stringent rushing game and will control the clock to keep it close. The Utes might be able to keep the second-longest postseason win streak alive ? they've won their past six bowl games ? but this one stays close
Platinum Sheet Best Bets for tonight
(Newsletter plays)
12/20/07 (301) PITTSBURGH at (302) ST LOUIS
There are a lot people out there that are going to be “forcing” a pick on Pittsburgh since it is now a must-win game for them in terms of winning the division. However, the way the Steelers have been playing of late, they have no business being a 9-point road favorite on anyone. They have covered just once in their L6 games overall and obviously played much better football at other times in the season. St. Louis, meanwhile, is playing pretty well of late, having covered half of their last six games. In fact, I would even look at the Green Bay game last week as a favorable performance for the Rams since they actually outgained the Packers 364-279 but lost by 19-points due to an incredibly drastic field position battle. St. Louis is 22-13 ATS hosting the AFC, as it is typically a tough place to play for someone unfamiliar to play. Pittsburgh will be just happy to win. Covering 9-points is a whole other story.
Play: St. Louis +9
12/20/2007 (703) LA LAKERS at (704) CLEVELAND
Too often in the NBA games that match stars, one of the stars feels the need to outshine the other. Anytime that game involves Kobe Bryant, it is usually him exhibiting the behavior. The result typically is one that is not favorable for the bettor backing him. In this one, the Lakers will be taking on a Cleveland team that is struggling and in bad need of a confidence boosting performance. Where better than on TNT in front of a national audience? Most of the trends seem to be going the Cavaliers way: For instance, LA LAKERS are 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) versus poor teams – outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA LAKERS 105.1, OPPONENT 104.2 - (Rating = 1*). Giving up a lot of points each night, the Lakers aren’t a real strong big favorite. Also, CLEVELAND is 44-23 ATS (+18.7 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 3 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 96.7, OPPONENT 94.1 - (Rating = 1*). The Cavs can “D” it up with the best of them when the effort is there. It should be in this one, giving them a great chance at an upset.
Play: Cleveland +3.5
12/20/2007 (715) GONZAGA at (716) OKLAHOMA
Here’s a little recap of some of the best bet text I wrote up for Oklahoma last
week against Arkansas…”My favorite stats used to handicap college basketball
games are offensive and defensive fififield goal percentage…Oklahoma has been
doing both very well, and it’s been camouflaged by losses to Memphis and USC,
certainly nothing to be ashamed of…This is a tough game for any non-conference
road visitor.” Well, how much has changed as the Sooners welcome Gonzaga to
Norman? Not a whole lot, that’s for sure. The Zags are going to be facign perhaps
the best defensive team they’ve seen thus far, and not at a good time either
as they’ve only shot better than 48% in one of their last seven games. Playing
outstanding basketball at home, I’ll back the Sooners here again.
Play: Oklahoma +1.5
AmmoSports
Navy +7.5
Dr Chad
5 units on UTAH.
5 units on ST LOUIS.
Seabass
300 Pitt/stl Under44
10 Ut/navy Over 64.5
Frank Rosenthal
NFL WEEK # 16
STELLERS VS RAMS
302 RAMS+9 SB
UNDER 44 SB
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 20TH
POINSETTIA BOWL
NAVY VS UTAH
303 NAVY+9 SB
UNDER 65.5 SB+
NBA
701 JERSEY+2 SB
703 LAKERS-1.5 SB+
706 NUGGETS-7 SB+
COLLEGE HOOPS
707 MIAMI OHIO+10.5 SB
710 DUKE-5 SB
UNDER 152 SB+
716 OKLAHOMA-2 SB+
726 SAINT MARYS CA-8 SB+
LANG
10-Dime Utah- I don't know what it is about this Utah program, but it could honestly change its nickname to the "Decembers," as it always seems to persevere the final month of the year and thrive in its Bowl game. The Utes have won six straight bowl games under three different coaches, and ironically have covered the spread in the last five.
And even though they're laying a traditionally tough number to cover in the postseason, we're talking about one of the most prolific defensive units in the nation. The Utes haven't allowed more than 20 points in a game since Oct. 5, when they won at Louisville, 44-35. They've only surrendered an average of 9.5 points since then, and will bring everything to the table tonight to stop that impeding offense of Navy's.
The Middies were just 1-3 against bowl teams this season, and with Paul Johnson down in Atlanta with Georgia Tech, I'll lay the chalk in this one.
5-Dime Rams - It's the home finale for St. Louis, and there is no bigger game for the Rams at this point than this one tonight. And for a team that has nothing to lose, cramming three days worth of prep time into this week is a lot easier than a team coming off a horrendous home loss to Jacksonville, and now being threatened to win the division. Jacksonville may have laid the best blue print out there, to beat these Steelers, and that's to run, run, run and when you think it's time to spread out and pass – you run it down their throats once again.
Steven Jackson is having a terrific close to the season, and could come through with his best performance of the campaign thus far. The Patriots (399 yards passing, four touchdown passes) and the Jaguars (224 yards rushing, one rushing touchdown) relied on opposite schemes, but were equally successful against the NFL's top-ranked defense. I expect to see St. Louis put forth the same effort, with balanced effort from Jackson and quarterback Marc Bulger, to keep this one close.
IndianCowboy
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Mississippi Rebels @ Depaul Blue Demons - Thursday December 20, 2007 5:30 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Mississippi Rebels -7 (-108) (Play of the Day)
5 total plays today. Time for a solid day today. The bottom line here is that I have the Rebels as a top 30 team and note that this game is an early start time at 5:30pm eastern. The Rebels have played well thus far this season and sit at 8-0 and although it is tempting to take Depaul, this game is being played on neutral footing in Puerto Rico. Ole Miss boasts some very impressive wins including wins against top 40 New Mexico, top 50 South Alabama and a perennial solid Winthrop squad. Depaul is a top 140 team that has just 2 wins on the year and they come against the likes of Texas A&M Corpus Christie and Northwestern at home by a point who is a top 190 team. I have Ole Miss winning this game by double-digits as they are simply a dominant team thus far this season and still have yet to be defeated and this team needs a solid showing at this tournament in Puerto Rico to be ranked in the top 25 and they should do well here.
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Elon College Phoenix @ Pennsylvania Quakers - Thursday December 20, 2007 7:00 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Elon College Phoenix +3.5 (-108) (Normal)
This is not going to be a popular pick, but there is no reason that Penn should be laying points to anyone right now. I follow Ivy League basketball very closely and UPenn is actually laying points to a team given tha they have won just 2 games and they come against the Citadel who are outisde the top 300 and Navy who are outside the top 250. Frankly, Elon is a sound team that I have ranked in the top 175 and I have already taken them once against Georgia on the road and I will take them again here. Their other win against Monmouth on the road is against a team that is outside the top 300 as well. Elon however is a .500 team that has yet to pick up a road win but keep in mind they have played Virginia Tech, Georgia and VCU. Elon has yet to pick up a road win here, but they are a 125 spots better than UPenn in the power rankings and I will take my chances with Elon to pick up their first win on the road as this is a solid public fade. With Wake covering as the huge public favorite yesterday, I find it tough to think that UPenn will cover as a huge public favorite today. Upenn has lost their last 4 covers and Elon should bounce-back well after their loss against Chattanooga.
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Los Angeles Lakers @ Cleveland Cavaliers - Thursday December 20, 2007 8:00 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) TOTAL: Over 205.5 (-110) (Normal)
The Lakers are a very good team when it comes to hitting the road and playing basketball of late. This team lost 108-114 on the road to the Cavs last year in L.A. and they are looking for revenge today. The Lakers have won 6 of 7 and have hit over a 100 in all 7 of those ballgames as they are getting solid contribution from their bench. The Cavs' bench on the other hand are lousy. This team is simply dismal right now when it comes to scoring. However, the Cavs are a strong team when it comes to rebounding as they head back home. The Cavs come off that terrible game in New York and no doubt this team will be fired up as they return home to play the Lakers. The over is 11-1 in Cavaliers last 12 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
and the over is 7-1 when the Cavs are home favorites. Thus, when Cavs are home favorites and small home favorites, the game typically goes over.
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers @ St. Louis Rams - Thursday December 20, 2007 8:15 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: St. Louis Rams +8 (-110) (Normal)
Why not? The Steelers are just 2-4 straight up on the road and this team has not been impressive of late. Sure, they are the #1 defense in the league, but this team simpy does not play well on the road and there are kinks in the armor considering their defense is banged up for this game as they will be missing 2-3 key starters. The Rams are not going anywhere this season but they do have 3 wins of late as they were winless at one point. This team's Super Bowl and Playoff game is tonight so to speak. This team still has weapons including Stephen Jackson, Tory Holt and Marc Bulger who will look to come off a frustrating game against the Packers. The bottom line here is just on principle, the Rams are a solid play at home as the Steelers will likely win this game, but I have the Rams to win this game at 30% and therefore, the points are solid as the cover here is 62% or better according to my math model. This team scored 13 on the road at New England, 16 on the road against the Jets in overtime and has lost 5 of their last 6 covers. St. Louis has won 3 of the last 5 games straight up that Bulger has started. The Rams are 6-2 ATS as underdogs by this margin at home and the Steelers are 1-4 ATS on the road.
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: New Jersey Nets @ Miami Heat - Thursday December 20, 2007 7:30 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: New Jersey Nets +2.5 (-110) (Normal)
This is an ugly pick. But, the Nets have revenge in this game seeing that they lost by a few points at home to the Heat earlier this year. The Heat will be missing even more depth given that 'Zo is likely out for the rest of the season and the Nets bigs' including Boone and Williams will likely wear down Shaq who is having career numbers below his typical averages. When the Heat beat the Nets earlier this year, Vince Carter did not play and he will undoubtedly suit up for this game. Thus, the Nets will have their trio of Jefferson, Kidd and Carter while the Heat simply have Wade and this team is simply struggling to win ballgames. With revenge in mind, the lack of depth without Zo' and with a healthy Nets team, this game should be ugly, but I feel that the Nets will carry the day in the end. The road team is 4-0 ATS in this series and the Heat are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 ballgames. The woes likely continue for the Heat after this game as they are also playing back to back ballgames while the Nets are a bit more rested.
Atslocks.com
5 unit Steelers/Rams Under 43
10 unit Utah -8 vs Navy
SMI Picks
CFB- Navy+ 8
NFL- Under 43
CBB-
Cal St. Ful -6.5
St. Marys -8.5
Comp NBA
Cleve Cavs +2.5
JB Sports:
3* Utah
Gameday:
2* Miami of Ohio and St. Mary's
Private Players of Pitt:
3* Navy
3* Navy 'OVER'
1* opinions Pitt and 'OVER'
Hoops
4* Ole Miss
3* Miami of Ohio, Pittsburgh, and Northern Arizona