Dave Cokins Service
3* Boise State
Marc Lawrence
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Thursday, September 27th, 7:05 P.M. EST EST
Braves right hander John Smoltz takes on the Phillies in the finale of this three-games series knowing he is 12-5 in his L17 team starts in September and also 9-3 in his L12 team starts on Thursdays. He's also in commanding KW form with 3 walks and 31 strikeouts in his L5 road starts. Look for more of the same here this evening. Good Luck - Marc Lawrence
Play on: Atlanta
Doc Sports
5* NYY ( MLB )
NORTHCOAST
Marquee Play
So.Miss +10.5
Thursday, September 27 Doctor BOB
BOISE STATE (-10 ½) 31 Southern Miss 16
Boise State is 20-4 ATS at home in their history when not favored by 21 points or more and I see no reason to buck that trend even if it is just 1-3 ATS recently. Boise is not the explosive team they’ve been in recent years, as new quarterback Taylor Tharp has been just average so far (6.2 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback) and the rushing attack has also been mediocre as teams are able to stack the line to stop RB Ian Johnson with less fear of being beaten up top. Southern Miss is just average defensively so the Broncos should move the ball at a decent rate. The Broncos’ good defense (3.9 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average defensive team), meanwhile, should limit a sub-par Southern Miss attack that has averaged 5.6 yppl with starting quarterback Jeremy Young in the game against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack. My math model favors Boise State by 15 ½ points and I’ll favor Boise to add to their impressive home spread mark.
ARKANSAS STATE (-5) 35 Memphis 26
I had a Best Bet last season on Arkansas State when they visited Memphis as a 10 point underdog and came away with a 26-23 win and it still appears as if the Tigers are overrated (or Arkansas State is underrated). Arkansas State has one of the best running back in the nation in Reggie Arnold, who ran for over 100 yards at 5.1 ypr last season and has averaged 118 yards per game 7.7 ypr this season, including 7.3 ypr against Texas and Tennessee. Memphis just gave up 321 yards at 5.5 yards per rushing play to Central Florida last week, so I doubt that they’ll be able to stop Arnold in this game. Memphis is actually not so bad for the season against the run but the Tigers have been horrible defending the pass (7.1 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppp against an average defensive team) and Indians’ quarterback Corey Leonard is good enough to take advantage. The Memphis offense and the Arkansas State defense are equally below average, so the only mismatch in this game is the solid Arkansas State offense going up against a bad Memphis defense. My math model doesn’t officially apply to this game because both teams have played just 3 games (I need 4 games each for an official math model play) but the math using this year’s games only favors Arkansas State by 15 ½ points. My ratings favor Arkansas State by 9 points and I’ll consider Arkansas State a Strong Opinion at -4 or less.
Kiki Sports ()
2 units Boise State
1 units Arkansas State