Ryan's 5* SEC Monster Play of the week - 67% ATS
Ryan has hit 67% ATS over the past 3 seasons with his 5* MONSTER plays and his two best conferences have been the Pac-10 and the SEC. Here is his SEC 5* MONSTER Play of the Week. This play is backed by Ryan's extensive research featuring an incredible system and an 8-1 ATS angle.
Guaranteed Pick: John Ryan
Game: Kentucky at South Carolina Oct 4 2007
Prediction: Kentucky
Reason: Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Kentucky – AiS shows an 82% probability that Kentucky will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. Let's first look at one of the dominant factors in this game. The Kentucky rushing game will be the reason that Kentucky covers and may win the game as well. The projections call for them to rush for at least 100 yards in this game and note that Kentucky is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they rush for 100 to 150 yards over the last 3 seasons. Plus, Kentucky is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt since 1992. South Carolina has a strong offense featuring Spurrier's pass happy schemes. Kentucky's ability to run the ball keeps the SC offense off the field and keeps the SC defense fresh. Kentucky is 5-0 and 4-0 ATS and they are coming off a big win against an inferior opponent in Florida Atlantic. Note that Kentucky is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) after a win by 17 or more points since 1992. During HC Brook's tenure the Wildcats are 8-1 ATS after a win by 17 or more points. Supporting this DOG is a money line system that has gone 28-8 and has made 17.5 units since 2002. Play against any team after a win by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 37 points or more in 3 straight games. Take Kentucky
UNDERDOG SPORTS
NCAAF Kentucky vs. South Carolina
Take Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky has not lost a game this year and are ranked 14th in offense. Take the Wildcats for the underdog free play of the week.
DCI
Thursday, October 4, 2007
Southeastern Conference
SOUTH CAROLINA 30, Kentucky 29
Tim Sullivan
SO. CAROLINA (-31/2) over Kentucky: The Wildcats may have the better team, but Steve Spurrier on a national stage at home with a small number is too good to pass up.
Michael Cannon Thursday Plays
10 Dime –
SOUTH CAROLINA (Buy the ½ point if your line is -3 ½)
Lay the small number with South Carolina tonight when they host Kentucky.
I know Kentucky brings the best player into this game in Andre Woodson. The Wildcats quarterback is a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate and is one of the nation’s most accurate passers.
But he’s not going against some run-of-the-mill secondary in South Carolina.
The Gamecocks have a veteran laden defense and sport the No. 1 pass defense in the country. The home crowd will add to that advantage by making it difficult for Woodson to call out his signals.
South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier absolutely owns Kentucky, going 14-0 SU in his career against them. The ‘Ol Ball Coach is 33-12-1 ATS playing an SEC opponent off a win and the Gamecocks have won seven in a row against Kentucky (5-2 ATS).
It also helps that South Carolina has already faced two of the SEC’s top teams in Lsu and Georgia, and covered the number in both games.
I’m just not convinced that Kentucky is worthy of its Top 10 ranking, as they haven’t faced the caliber of competition that South Carolina will bring tonight. Sure the Wildcats 40-34 victory over Louisville was impressive at the time, but that win was tempered after the Cardinals lost at home to Syracuse two weeks ago.
The coaching edge definitely goes to South Carolina in this one and it’s hard to go against Spurrier at home laying just a field goal.
Lay the points with South Carolina and remember to buy the ½ point if your line is -3 ½.
Pointwise - Newsletter Play
KENTUCKY over South Carolina RATING: 4
Dunkel Ratings
1-1 Last night
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 4
Game 305-306: Kentucky at South Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 102.548; South Carolina 101.526
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 1; 55
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 3 1/2; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+3 1/2)
THE GOLD SHEET
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 4
*Kentucky 27 - SOUTH CAROLINA 25--Although RS frosh QB Smelley gave South Carolina's "fun & gun" a lift in 38-21 win vs. Mississippi State, still prefer hot, confident 5-0 UK (best start since 1954!), ready, willing and able to end 7-game series losing streak. Cats sizzling Heisman hopeful sr. QB Woodson (67%, 16 TDs, 1 int.) owns more proven big-play weapons at WR (Burton & Lyons have combined 53 catches) than 'Cocks. And Brooks' opportunistic squad (+7 TO margin) less likely to make crucial error than Carolina (11 giveaways, -4 TO margin). Coming Cats now 9-1 vs. spread last 10. TV--ESPN
(06-S. Car. 24-KY. 17...S.21-17 S.39/190 K.27/62 K.18/32/1/289 S.15/23/1/193 S.0 K.0)
(06-Usc -4' 24-17 05-USC -12' 44-16 04-Usc -13 12-7...SR: South Carolina 11-6-1)
Pointwise
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
KENTUCKY over South Carolina RATING: 4
PICK: South Carolina
Your pick will be graded at: -3.5
EXPERT: David Malinsky
REASON FOR PICK: 4* SOUTH CAROLINA over KENTUCKY
We certainly tip our caps to what Rich Brooks has been able to do at Kentucky, turning around what had truly been a moribund program. But now the marketplace is giving them too much credit, and that gives us the ability to take advantage of the excellent matchups to the Gamecocks in this one.
First let’s address the market, and the best way to do so is to establish a historical perspective. This will be the third meeting between these programs since Steve Spurrier came to Columbia, with South Carolina winning 44-16 as -12.5 on this field two years ago, and then 24-17 as -4.5 at Lexington last October. We remember both games because we had the Gamecocks as 4* plays each time, and note that LY’s win was easier than the final score would suggest – Carolina led 10-0 at halftime, and 24-10 before a late back-door score was allowed, with the line of scrimmage being dominated to the tune of 190-62 in rushing yards. And of extreme importance was how the Gamecock defense shut down Andre Woodson & Co. on their own field.
Kentucky scored two TD’s in that loss, the first coming when the Wildcats were down 17-0 in the third quarter, and Brooks rolled the dice successfully on a fake punt after another drive had stalled. The other came when they were down 24-7 with less than three minutes remaining, getting set up by a 63-yard pass. It does not get any easier this time, especially in front of a rabid crowd at night, and facing a veteran South Carolina secondary that will have several players eventually playing on Sunday’s. The Gamecocks rate #2 in the nation in pass efficiency defense so far this season, second only to LSU, and through three SEC games they are allowing only 42.4 percent completions and an outstanding 4.5 yards per pass attempt, with more interceptions than TD passes allowed. There is so much quality depth that seven different players have started at least one game so far, and there is perhaps no better compliment than the one given to them by Carolina WR Kenny McKinley - ”I go versus them (in practice) and I’m like, ‘Man, no other team can be this strong.’”
If you take away the strength of Kentucky, which is Woodson and the passing game, this is still a team that is nothing special. The Wildcats had exciting rallies to beat Louisville and Arkansas, but in those games they were out-gained each time, with the defense allowing 467 yards to the Razorbacks and 495 to the Razorbacks. Even Kent State was able to pile up 463, with four turnovers keeping the Golden Flashes from getting more points on the board. This is an average team that has a couple of great skill players, and has gone +7 in turnover ratio so far. They are not good enough to beat this class of SEC opponent on the road.
Rocketman comp
South Carolina -3.5
Brian James
Free Pick for Thursday, October 4th:
Kentucky/S. Carolina UNDER 57.5 -107
Ats Financial Package
Under 58...SC/KY............3 Units
Brandon.lang
10 DIME
Kentucky
Kentucky/S.Carolina UNDER
David Page
PREMIUM AND CONFIRMED
Thu, October 4th 2007 07:45:00 PM
NCF
South Carolina
Kentucky
Kentucky +4 (-102)
Thu, October 4th 2007 07:45:00 PM
NCF
South Carolina
Kentucky
Under 57.5 (-105)