Vegas Experts
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies
Milwaukee has been sizzling away from home, winning 20 of their last 27 road games. Ben Sheets, now the #2 man in the rotation, has been matching CC Sabathia’s production as of late, having not yielded a single run in any of his last three outings (20 IP). Last Saturday, he posted his fifth complete game of the season. Look for the Brew Crew to maintain (or expand) its lead in the NL Wild Card race.
Play on: Milwaukee
Dr Bob
RUTGERS (-6.0) 27 North Carolina 24
Rutgers gave up some big plays in their 7-24 home upset loss to Fresno State two weeks ago and the Scarlet Knights were out-gained 5.1 yards per play to 6.7 yppl by the Bulldogs. It’s pretty obvious that run defense is still a major problem for the Knights, who allowed 5.2 yards per rushing play last season (against teams that would average 4.7 yprp against an average team) and gave up 5.9 yprp to a good rushing Fresno State team in week 1. Rutgers also gave up 7.8 yards per pass play to the Bulldogs, but the 46% completions they allowed is more indicative of their great pass defense since they are not likely to continue to allow 19.6 yards per completion as they did in that game (they allowed the national average of 12.0 ypc last season). Rutgers only yielded 4.8 yards per pass play last season (against teams that would average 6.1 yppp) and they should be at least as good this season with 8 defensive starters returning, including 3 of 4 starting defensive backs. North Carolina is not likely to take full advantage of Rutgers’ porous run defense given their poor rushing game (I project a modest 4.6 yprp for UNC in this game) and the Scarlet Knights are likely to limit talented Tarheels quarterback T.J. Yates, who I rate at 0.5 yppp better than average (which is not as good as a Rutgers’ pass defense that I rate at 1.5 yppp better than average). The match-up favors Rutgers when they have the ball too, as North Carolina’s defensive strength is stopping the run while the Scarlet Knights are much better throwing the ball with veteran Mike Teel than they are running it now that Ray Rice is in the NFL. Rutgers’ new lead back Kordell Young has averaged only 4.0 ypr on his 73 career carries (against teams that would allow 4.9 ypr to an average back) and managed just 3.6 ypr on 26 carries against a mediocre Fresno State run defense. Teel is a bomber that has two major weapons in Kenny Britt (1232 receiving yards last season at 19.9 ypc) and Tiquan Underwood (1100 yards at 16.9 ypc) and Teel averaged a very impressive 8.7 yppp last season (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB). Teel wasn’t at his best (6.5 yppp) against a good Fresno pass defense, but North Carolina is just average in pass defense and the Heels allowed 7.5 yppp in their opener to McNeese State quarterbacks Fourroux and Fontenot. That’s actually not as bad as it appears considering McNeese would have averaged 7.3 yppp last season against an average Division 1A defense and they’re probably going to post better numbers this season. Teel should post good passing numbers in this game (with 1 or 2 interceptions, as he’s interception prone) and my math favors Rutgers by 7 ½ points. Despite the line value in favor of the Knights I’ll be leaning with North Carolina a bit on the basis of a negative 7-36 ATS game 2 situation that applies to Rutgers and a 20-5 ATS game 2 situation that applies to North Carolina.
The Gold Sheet
*RUTGERS 31 - North Carolina 30 Scarlet Knights itching to get in win column after dropping home opener vs. Fresno State. Sr. QB Teel will hit some big plays to top-notch WRs Britt & Underwood. But Rutgers misses recordsetting RB Rice in RED ZONE . Confident Carolina soph QB Yates has wherewithal to trade points for full 60 minutes, as Britt & Underwood have nothing on Tar Heels? dynamic WR duo of sr. Tate (397 total yards in opener!) and jr. Nicks. TV-ESPN (06-Rutg. +4' 21-16...SR: Rutg. 3-0)
Winning Points
*PREFERRED*
Rutgers* over North Carolina by 5
Is it possible that Greg Schiano has already taken the Rutgers program about as high as it can go, and now faces a struggle to maintain a winning level? Tar Heels are a work in progress, but do have an upside. RUTGERS 27-22.
Sports Reporter
*RUTGERS over NORTH CAROLINA by 3
The Rutgers defensive front four is smaller than you think, head coach Schiano replaced four assistants in the off-season, and the Tar Heels are better-coached and better-stocked now than when they lost 21-16 to Rutgers in the final season of the Bunting regime. Head coach Butch Davis hired Schiano at Miami-FL, so there is some intimacy here, which favors the road dog, who will add a few very quick kick returners who did not suit up in the opener vs.McNeese State. Rutgers had the worst FG to TD ratio in the Big East last season, and redzone woes continued in the Week 1 loss vs. Fresno, compounded by a new field goal kicker who they might want to kick in the butt. RUTGERS, 26-23.
Power Sweep
North Carolina at RUTGERS - In 2006 NC was at home (-4) and lost 21-16 but did come up empty on two drives deep into RU territory. They had a TD called back, were SOD and were int’d at the 21. NC has not won a road game outside the state of NC since 2002. An ACC team (Maryland) did come in here (+18’) and delivered another Big Dog Play outright upset in their 34-24 win LY. NC has 18 returning starters and while RU has 15 they must replace their key player RB Rice (2012 rush). The teams are fairly even on off with RU having the D (#32-72) and home edges. NC has a big ST’s edge (#62-116).
Pointwise
RUTGERS 23 - North Carolina 20 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Not too excited here, as the Knights obviously miss the talents of Rice, as they were outrushed by 100 yds in opening week upset vs Fresno. Now minus 85 pts ATS in 8 of their last 9 regular season games. The 'Heels return 19 starters, but were hardly impressive in their narrow escape vs McNeese, with a stat deficit. Dog is 12-4ATS in NC contests.
Marc Lawrence Playbook
RUTGERS over North Carolina by 7
Scarlet Knights last took on UNC in the 2006 season opener for both teams,stepping on the favored Heels at Chapel Hill 21-16. Since that meeting Rutgers’Greg Schiano has gone 18-8 SU & 14-10 ATS while UNC is just 8-16 SU and 10-11 ATS. RU immediately felt the loss of ’07 star RB Ray Rice to graduation in its season opener against Fresno State while Pat Hill’s Bulldogs found a Ricefree diet to their liking – FSU stifl ed the Knights 24-7, outrushing Rutgers by 100 yards. Carolina’s lone opponent so far in 2008, 1-AA McNeese State, gave the Tar Heels all they could handle before falling 35-27 (Cowboys outgained UNC in fi rst downs by 22 to 13 while running up an 11-minute advantage onthe game clock). It’s good for Rutgers coach Greg Schiano that tonight’s foe doesn’t reside in the Big East: he’s a sizzling 20-6-1 ATS at home when laying less than 17 points to a non-conference adversary. Those numbers fi t like a glove into Carolina’s 0-6 SU and ATS efforts lately against Big East foes – but one troubling stat keeps us from slipping on the armor. UNC coach Davis owns an impressive 68-19 SU and 56-19 career ATS mark when his teams score 21 or more points (that angle went 3-1 ATS in 2007). With Rutgers giving up just over 22 PPG over the past 14 games, we may have to sit this one out.
Info Plays
3* on San Francisco Giants -115
The Giants look to continue their recent string of success with Matt Cain on the mound Thursday. Cain (8-11, 3.75 ERA) tries to give San Francisco its sixth straight win. The Giants beat up on Arizona and Pittsburgh their last two series, and now it’s time to take their show on the road to San Diego. We’ll Play On - Road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (SAN FRANCISCO) - poor power team - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game on the season, after a one run win. This is a brilliant 72-21 ML System hitting 77.4% since 1997. The Giants are playing with confidence right now so this is a great time to back them. Bet San Francisco on the road.
Chris Jordan
Seattle at ANAHEIM +110
Play the Angels tonight, as they're getting pure value the night after clinching the AL West.
I don't want to hear the excuse of night-after hangover and that this team will come out flat. Not when the Mariners are a brutal excuse for a team.
Aruguably the best team in the league versus arguably the worst team in the league and we're getting money ... what do you think?
1♦ ANGELS
WINNERS EDGE
CFB
North Carolina / Rutgers under 47 , 2 units
MLB
Cubs / Cards under 7 .5 (-120) , 1 unit
CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS
NORTH CAROLINA vs RUTGERS
Play: Rutgers -5.5 (POD)
MILWAUKEE BREWERS vs PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -112
The Sports Firm
North Carolina Tar Heels at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Play: Under 47
Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves
Play: Rockies 120
Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox
Play: Whitesox -120
Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles
Play: Under 11
John Ryan
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: OVER
Ai Simulator 3* graded play OVER Philadelphia/Milwaukee – AiS shows a 75% probability that 9 or more runs will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 45-15 for 75% since 2002. This system is also 8-3 OVER this season. Play over home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing facing an opponent with a hot starting pitcher whose WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 3 starts. Now, I could provide the background detail for this play, but I have a strong 7* graded play on this game. Do yourself a favor and get this play now on a pay after you win basis and parlay them together.
Wise Guy Handicapping
3 UNITS Rutgers -4.5
3 UNITS Chicago White Sox -120
1 UNIT Los Angeles Angels +1.5
Oscarxena Sports
North Carolina +5 1/2 +1.01 (3 Unit Play)
These two clubs have only played one game each and I think the public is jumping on Rutgers because they played a quality opponent in Fresno State while North Carolina "only" played McNeese State and struggled to win that game. However, in taking a close inspection of McNeese State they are one of the top teams in Division 1-AA as they rank #7 right now in a popular Dunkel Index ranking. If you break the numbers down from both team's first contest this year there are numbers that really point to taking the points here tonight. North Carolina was able to gain 163 yards on the ground at 5.6 YPC in the first game and also threw for 221 yards which equaled out to 8.5 yards a pass attempt. The Tar Heel defense held McNeese State to 152 yards rushing but averaged out at 3.3 YPC and while they allowed 239 yards through the air at 7.5 YPA I have already said that this team is not that bad. Now granted Rutgers took on a much tougher foe in Fresno State but their defense was gashed pretty good allowing 206 yards on the ground at 5.3 YPC and through the air allowed 216 yards at 9.0 YPA. Rutgers was also unable to run against Fresno State's defense as they gained only 106 yards at 3.1 YPC. I think North Carolina is a very underrated team this year and the line value is on our side here tonight and I would not be surprised to see them win this game outright. The Tar Heels for me here this evening. By the way this line seems to be climbing so if you want wait until later this evening and you may be able to get an even higher line.
Colorado/Atlanta Under 8 1/2 -1.04 (3 Unit Play)
Last play today and not a big writeup but I think the Under here is a great play this evening. The two pitchers have bad lines in their last three starts but when you examine it closer you see it was because of one bad game and the other games were pretty outstanding. Interestingly enough these teams and pitchers met earlier this year with the exact same HP umpire of Adrian Johnson and the total for that game was set at 9 1/2 and the Braves came away with a 7-1 victory. Johnson was a big Under umpire until recently going on a large Over run and I think both of these pitchers will be able to dominate the lineups that they are facing. Under is my play here tonight.
Mike Rose
3* Chi/StL Over
3* Pit/Hou Over
3* Mil
EZWINNERS
5 STAR: (955) PITTSBURGH (+$245) over Houston
(Listing Duke only)
(Risking $500 to win $1225)
3 STAR: (952) PHILADELPHIA (-$103) over Milwaukee
(Listing Moyer only)
(Risking $309 to win $300)
3 STAR: (957) CHICAGO (-$137) over St. Louis
(Listing Harden only)
(Risking $417 to win $300)
Trace Adams
1500* North Carolina Tar Heels
500* San Francisco
Power Play Wins
NORTH CAROLINA / RUTGERS OVER 47