The Gold Medal Club
Minnesota @ Tampa Bay
PLAY TAMPA BAY -155
More juice here than we are used to, but it is warranted. After a successful and emotional series win over there rival leaders the Boston Red Sox, the Rays can use this momentum to finish strong.We note Tampa Bay is 20-1 as home chalk in this price range, and with Shields on the mound look for that to go to 21-1. Shields has certainly been formidable going 9-2 at home this year and is 2-0 in his last 3 starts with an era of 1.57! On the flip side Perkins looks like he has hit the wall, although he is 5-1 on the road this year, his last 3 starts have been disastrous.He is 0-1 with an era of 8.56 and a whip over 2.
Ben Burns
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Under
Maholm has been tough at home all season. In fact, he's gone 7-2 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in 15 starts here. The 'under' was 8-6-1 in those games. He'll face a Dodger lineup which has really struggled to score runs during the daytime. Indeed, the Dodgers have seen the 'under' go 26-18 when playing during the afternoon and they've averaged a mere 3.7 runs in those games, while hitting just .251. As for the Pirates, they haven't hit particularly well vs. southpaws (.248 average, 4.4 rpg) and they'll be at the disadvantage of facing Kershaw for the first time. Last time out, Kershaw allowed just four hits and one run through six innings at Coors Field. That game finished well below the total with a final score of 5-1. Given that Kershaw has a much better ERA during the day than he does at night, I won't be surprised if this afternoon's game proves to be relatively low-scoring once again. Consider the UNDER (1*)
Vegas Experts
Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays
If the Tampa Bay Rays are listed as $1.50 favorites or higher, you might as well not even show up if you're the other team. That's because the AL East leaders are a sensational 32-2 in that price range this season, including 25-1 at $2.00 or less. Incredibly, tonight's starter James Shields owns a 12-0 team start record in the original price range we talked about. Shields also has posted a 1.57 ERA his L3 starts. Who are we to argue with these numbers?
Play on: Tampa Bay
Nick Parsons
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
Although the Phillies are way too pricey to release as a pay play you're reading about them here because I do see value with the Phils on Thursday. At this price, you may want to simply consider using them in a parlay but, the fact is, the value with Philadelphia should not be passed up on here. Philly is once again running hot in making their late season playoff push just like they did last year! Now, having won six straight, and having their staff ace on the mound tonight, they should not be denied. Cole Hamels is only allowing opponents to hit .224 against him this season. He also is 6-3 on the road this season. Hamels is 5-2 in his career against Altanta and the southpaw has held the Braves to a .229 batting average in his career. Keep in mind that this even includes his most recent outing against Atlanta. That came in July and Hamels got roughed up. In other words, it's revenge time for one of the best southpaws in the game! Originally it looked like the Braves were going to go with Jo Jo Reyes in this match-up tonight but it now looks like Mike Hampton will get the call. Either way, neither one of those southpaws is in the same class as Hamels. When you couple that factor with the fact that the Phillies are rolling and confident while the Braves are playing out the string here and you can see why the Phils are the play on Thursday night!
Drew Gordon
LA Angels at OAKLAND +105
First thing that jumps out at you in this contest is the number... Doesn't it seem tantalizingly low for Joe Saunders, who's been a beast on the road (9-3, 2.74 ERA away)? When you consider a couple things, it becomes clear why the number is where its at, and why the only play here is on the surging A's...
Sharp bettors know there's something fishy about the bargain price on Joe Saunders. It starts with each team's recent play, that is to say, the sudden struggles of this Angels team, versus the sudden surge by the Athletics. Angels have lost two in a row, but already they're playing like a team with ZERO interest in the remainder of the regular season. Also, with Guerrero out and Rivera likely a scratch, the Angels offense got a lot weaker overnight.
Athletics on the other hand, have seemingly found their groove, even though it means absolutely nothing except pride at this point. They've won 4 straight, averaging a hearty 6.25 runs per game over that span, and now get a shot at a pitcher they dominated the last time they saw him. That's right, for all of Joe Saunders success this season, the last time he saw the A's he got rocked for 6 runs in just 1 1/3 innings back on August 27th!
The last piece of the puzzle is the A's rookie Josh Outman, who was rock-solid against a top-tier Rangers offense in his first start of the season, allowing just 1 run over 5 innings Saturday. That was the game that started the A's winning streak, and I expect Outman to handle a short-handed/disinterested Angels offense in this one as well.
Bottom line, you're right to question the number on this contest, because it does stand out as fishy. Although its tough to side with the A's after a woeful season, the Angels are not themselves, as they prepare for their postseason run. In the end, Outman gets the job done, while the hot-hitting Athletics beat up on Saunders once again tonight!
Take Oakland behind Outman over the LA Angels and Saunders in this MLB match up.
3♦ OAKLAND
Jeff Benton
Terrible call on the Dodgers run-line Wednesday, as L.A. played its worst game in more than two weeks (go figure!). Let’s shake out of this free-play funk by playing the Marlins on the run-line (-1½ runs) against the Astros.
My paying customers know that I came with this exact play as Wednesday’s Best Bet, and I cashed that 15 Dimer with ease as Florida rolled to a 14-2 victory. Well, my reasoning for taking the Marlins on the run-line today mirror those of yesterday. The Astros have been a total and complete mess since Hurricane Ike struck H-town last weekend, forcing the postponement, and then relocation, of a three-game series against the Cubs (they played two of the games in Milwaukee, which was like a home-away-from-home for nearby Chicago).
Anyway, prior to the hurricane madness, the Astros had won 14 of 15 games to climb right back into the wild-card race. But starting with getting no-hit by Carlos Zambrano on Sunday, the Astros have lost four straight games by the combined score of – get this! – 30-4! Not only that, but the offense has tallied a grand total of 12 hits in 36 innings. As I stated in yesterday’s analysis on the Florida-Houston game, clearly the minds of the Astros’ players are elsewhere (and understandably so).
Meanwhile, the Marlins all of a sudden have won seven straight games – the longest current winning streak in baseball – and now they find themselves four games out of the wild-card race. Bottom line: I don’t even care about the pitching matchup in this game (veteran Marlins lefty Scott Olsen vs. Houston rookie Alberto Arias); Florida’s beating the Astros once again, and doing so comfortably.
4♦ FLORIDA MARLINS -1½
Matt Rivers
For Thursday take a stab with the Brewers.
Certainly Milwaukee is the well inferior team in this spot and should be a huge underdog but I still think this is a winnable game and well worth the risk.
Rich Harden is phenomenal and easily can shut down any opponent including the ice cold Brew Crew who just fired Manager Ned Yost. But Milwaukee still has a ton of talent and a solid upside that at this price it's a total no-brainer. Braun and Prince are awesome and others like Hart, Hall, Hardy, Weeks, etc. can explode as well.
Lou's boys have ben great at Wrigley all season long and are ready for a postseason run. Lee, Soriano and Ramirez anchor a lineup that definitely can be scary and hit David Bush but the sinkerballer also is a pretty good pitcher that can keep his team in this game.
More times than not Harden does his thing and the Cubbies prevail today but at this takeback with a team that has immense potential in the Brew Crew I can't help but take back this number.
Tony Weston
We’re going back to the National League as we’re taking the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Despite last night’s 15-8 loss to the Pirates, the Dodgers are still 4-1 their last five meetings against Pittsburgh, including a 2-1 mark so far through three games in this series.
While the Pirates have been a little hot lately, going 4-2 their last six games, they are nowhere near what the Dodgers have been doing.
After an eight-game losing streak from Aug. 22 to Aug. 29 Los Angeles has been red hot. The Dodgers are now 14-3 their last 17 games and have won eight of their last 11 on the road, including six of their last eight.
Also, Los Angeles pitcher Clayton Kershaw has been strong over his last eight starts as the Dodgers are 6-2 in that stretch, while the Pirates are 1-3 in scheduled starter Paul Maholm’s last four starts.
The Dodgers will continue their red-hot play and get over on the Pirates today.
3♦ DODGERS
DUNKEL
San Francisco at Arizona
The Giants look to snap a three-game skid and build on their 9-4 road record when the run total is 7 or less. San Francisco is the underdog pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+110). Here are all of today's games
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 18
Game 901-902: LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.859; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 15.171
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-145); Under
Game 903-904: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Bush) 14.451; Cubs (Harden) 15.629
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-260); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-260); N/A
Game 905-906: NY Mets at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 16.352; Washington (Redding) 14.917
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-215); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-215); Over
Game 907-908: Houston at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Arias) 15.809; Florida (Olsen) 15.537
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+130); Over
Game 909-910: St. Louis at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 13.798; Cincinnati (Volquez) 13.769
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+125); Over
Game 911-912: Philadelphia at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 17.531; Atlanta (Reyes) 15.277
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-215); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-215); Under
Game 913-914: San Francisco at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.415; Arizona (Johnson) 14.357
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+110); Under
Game 915-916: Seattle at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Feierabend) 14.397; Kansas City (Greinke) 17.191
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 3; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-185); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-185); Over
Game 917-918: LA Angels at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Saunders) 16.475; Oakland (Outman) 15.425
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-125); Under
Game 919-920: Chicago White Sox at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Vazquez) 16.765; NY Yankees (Mussina) 15.466
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+115); Under
Game 921-922: Baltimore at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Olson) 14.956; Toronto (Litsch) 17.034
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 923-924: Minnesota at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Perkins) 15.778; Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.669
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+150); Under
NCAAF
Game 303-304: West Virginia at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 97.668; Colorado 97.799
Dunkel Line: Even; 50
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 3; 57
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+3); Under
JB's Computer Picks
Los Angeles Angels -130
New York Yankees -130
Toronto Blue Jays -180
Wild Bill
Los Angeles Dodgers-125 (5 units)
Mariners +175 (5 units)
Brewers +205 (5 units)
Angels -115 (5 units)
White Sox +125 (5 units)
Orioles +170 (5 units)
New York Mets -200 (5 units)
Reds 130 (5 units)
Braves +185 (5 units)
Twins +145 (5 units)
Giants -105 (5 units)
Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 300,000♦ Colorado
2. 50,000♦ NY Yankees
3. 50,000♦ Cardinals
1. Colorado- First things first, this is NOT the 2007 version of the Mountaineers, as two things have become painfully clear with this new-look Bill Stewart led WVU squad: A. Pat White desperately misses playmakers RB Steve Slaton and WR Darius Reynaud, as their offense has struggled to get it done despite returning most everyone else from last years high-powered attack. And B. Bill Stewart's insistence on switching to a more pass-based pro-style attack has not gone over smoothly, as was clearly demonstrated by their 24-3 blowout loss at Eastern Carolina.
What's more is coach Stewart was quoted as saying he's going to back to the running attack in this contest, after Pat White tossed 51 passes in the first two games. Herein lies the problem, as the Buffaloes defense is especially stout against the run, and if Stewart stays true to his word (which I expect), they'll be playing right into the strength of this Colorado defense, allowing just 59 rushing yards per game thus far.
For all you West Virginia-backers out there, I got one question for you: How in the hell is a young and vulnerable WVU secondary going to stop Cody Hawkins and this high-powered Buffaloes passing attack?! Remember this stat: Opposing QBs are 43 of 55 for 502 yards against this Moutaineers defense thus far this season. That's right, two games and already the WVU secondary is getting exposed! More of the same tonight, as Hawkins puts on a clinic at home. Not to mention, when Hawkins isn't slinging the ball, star frosh RB Darrell Scott is just as dangerous as Noel Devine, if not more!
Finally, you have to believe the Buffaloes and their fans will be fired up in this national TV appearance. Look for a lot of energy coming from Colorado early and often in this one. Not to mention, the Buffaloes are also on a 5-0 run ATS in 2nd of back-to-back home games, which should tell you a little something about home field advantage. In the end, coach Stewart flip-flopping between pass-based and run-based attacks is a BAD sign, as his offense flounders in the confusion. Do not sleep on this Colorado team, especially at home, against a soft-ass WVU secondary. Buffaloes roll!
Take Colorado plus the points over West Virginia as your top-rated play of the day.
2. NY Yankees- For as much as the White Sox need to keep winning games, tonight's match up maybe biting off more than they chew. New York is playing well, and while its too little too late, there's no question they're highly motivated in their final homestand at their beloved Yankee Stadium.
While Mike Mussina hasn't pitched well of late, I expect he'll bounce back nicely tonight for two reasons: A. He's been downright nasty against the White Sox at home, going 6-1 with a 3.25 ERA in 7 career starts there. He's won 5 straight at Yankee Stadium against the White Sox, make it 6 after tonight! And B. He's coming off a tough home loss to the Rays, where he got tagged for 5 run in 5 innings. I fully expect he'll come out looking for redemption in this one, and he'll deliver, plain and simple.
Opposing Mussina is Javier Vazquez, who's looked good over his last 3 starts, but let's not get carried away... 2 of his last 3 starts came at home, where he's much more comfortable. On the road Vazquez is a different pitcher, going 5-7 with a 4.47 ERA. Not to mention, his career numbers against the Yankees leave a lot to be desired, going 1-4 with a 6.14 ERA in 5 starts! With the Yankees offense coming back to life, Vazquez will find himself in trouble tonight.
Finally, let's look at perhaps the biggest short term disparity, and that's the bullpen play. White Sox 'pen has been atrocious of late, posting a laughable 9.12 ERA over their last 10 games. New York on the other hand, has been rock-solid, posting a 2.88 ERA over the same span! In the end, look for the Yankees to take care of business as the suddenly sputtering White Sox will have to wait for a trip to Kansas City before picking up another much-needed win.
Take the NY Yankees behind Mussina over the Chicago White Sox and Vazquez in this MLB match up.
3. Cardinals- Looking over each team's recent play, I can understand why bettors would shy away from the Cardinals in this spot. But let me be the one to tell you, expect the Redbirds to snap out of their funk tonight, and here's why:
First, Edinson Volquez has not been the same pitcher of late, as his innings and pitch counts have risen, his effectiveness has declined. Sure, he was solid at soft-hitting Arizona in his last one, but the 3 starts prior saw him allow 14 runs over his last 18 innings, with no less than 110 pitches thrown in each start. Not only that but his command has been off, walking 6 in his last start, and allowing 16 hits over his last 3. Cardinals offense may be slumping, but a sputtering Volquez is just what the doctor ordered.
Second, let't not forget Kyle Lohse has some payback in order in this match up, as we all know him and Volquez do not like each other after their last meeting (where both pitcher threw at each other, resulting in a 5-game suspension for Lohse). Despite his struggles of late, going 1-4 with a 4.72 ERA over his last 10 starts, most of that is due to a slumping Cardinals offense, as he's posted a solid 2.33 ERA over his last 3 starts! Included in those starts were two excellent road efforts, where Lohse allowed 2 runs over his last 14 inning away!
Finally, for all the struggles of this St. Louis club, they still own the edge in two critical categories: A. Though they maybe slumping at the plate, their team batting average is still 15 points higher than the Reds over their last 10 games... So don't tell me the Reds offense is any better than the Cardinals right now. And B. despite their winning streak, the Reds bullpen has been highly suspect over their last 10 games, posting a 4.85 ERA, as compared to the Cards 2.48 ERA over the same span! In the end, look for the Cardinals to turn it around tonight in Cincy, as they take advantage of a seemingly fatigued Volquez, while Lohse gets his redemption in the process!
Take the Cardinals behind Lohse over the Reds and Volquez in this MLB match up
Made it a bit easier to read
Thanks bigdaveyt
MONEYLOCKOFTHEDAY
Premium Pick: Dodgers/Pirates Over 8 Runs
Free Pick: Phillies Run Line
Made it a bit easier to read
Thanks bigdaveyt
No problem. I'll give him another shot. If it's a winner, I'll probably pick him up saturday too.