PlusLineSports
St Louis vs Cincinnati
Cincinnati -1.5
Mike Rose
3* CWS/NYY OVER 8½
2* HOU +140
5* AZD –105
Larry Ness
15* Getaway Day Game of the Week (186-103 two-year run)
My 15* play is on the LA Angels at 3:35 ET. All of a sudden, the Angels are struggling on the road. LA still owns MLB's best road record at 43-30 but last night's 3-2 loss to the A's, drops the Angels to 5-11 over their last 16 road games. Last night's loss was particularly tough to swallow. Teixeira hit a two-run HR in the top of the ninth to give the Angels a 2-1 lead but the Angels made two throwing errors in the bottom of the inning (one by record-setting closer K-Rod), which allowed two runs to score. Oakland has now won four straight but is still only 71-80 on the year, including 40-37 at home, where the A's have averaged a puny 3.99 RPG. Rookie Josh Outman (1-0, 3.86 ERA) will make his second career start this afternoon. He won his first major league start Saturday against Texas, giving up one run in five innings in a 7-1 victory. The 24-year-old left-hander was acquired July 17 in a trade that sent Joe Blanton to Philadelphia and while the Angels are slumping, one must still note that they are 30-14 this year against lefties. Speaking of lefties, getting the call for LA is Joe Saunders. Saunders did whatever was asked of him in '06 and '07, regularly getting shuttled between the majors and the minors. Under very difficult conditions, his two-year mark was an impressive 15-5 (4.55 ERA), as the Angels went 21-10 in his starts. He's been a MAJOR cog in the rotation all season and enters this game 15-7 with a 3.65 ERA. In fact, he's been the team's biggest "money-maker" among starters, as the Angels are 21-8 (plus-$1,068) in his 29 starts TY (ranks 8th-best among all MLB starters). He's got 20 quality starts this season and has allowed three ERs or less in 23 of 29 outings in '08. He's actually been better on the road (9-3 with a 2.74 ERA), than he has at home (6-4 with a 4.55 ERA) this season and he's been just terrific in daytime starts this year. Saunders has made nine afternoon starts in '08, going 6-0 with a 3.38 ERA (team is 8-1). His good daytime record is VERY significant here, as the A's are only 5-15 ve lefties in day games this year, averaging 3.2 RPG. Getaway Day Game of the Week 15* LA Angels.
Las Vegas Insider-MLB (52-33 with MLB Insiders since May 26)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Yankees at 7:05 ET. The Yankees will likely will be eliminated from the playoff 'picture' this weekend for the first time since 1993 but the Yanks are making life hard on the White Sox this week in The Bronx, winning two of the first three games of this four-game series which concludes tonight. Chicago leads the Twins by 2 1/2 games in the Central and with the Twins opening a four-game series at Tampa tonight (Rays are 55-22 at home!), the White Sox know they have a great opportunity to distance themselves from Minnesota if they can start winning. Winning here will be no easy task, as they'll face Mike Mussina. "The Moose" went 11-10 in '07 with a career-high 5.15 ERA. When he opened '08 with a 1-3 mark in his first four starts and a 5.76 ERA, most felt "it was just a matter of time." However, he's surprised everyone by going 16-4 over his next 25 starts (team was 19-6) from April 23 through September 2. He has been hit hard in his last two starts (11 IP / 15 hits / 9 ERs / 7.36 ERA) but he's 17-9 (3.63 ERA) on the year and the Yanks are 20-11 in his starts. This will be his final start of the year in Yankee Stadium (which closes at the end of '08) and he's won five straight home starts against the White Sox. Chicago will start Javier Vazquez (12-13, 4.13 ERA), who will be pitching on just three days rest, after starting Game 1 of Sunday's doubleheader with the Tigers. That's not good news, as the White Sox need innings from their starters right now, as the team's bullpen is 1-1 with a 11.50 ERA in its last eight appearances. Advantage New York and Mussina. Las Vegas Insider on the NY Yankees.
Comp
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Cincinnati Reds
The Cards postseason hopes are all but over. They've dropped the first two games of a three-game series in Cincinnati to the Reds (7-2 and 3-0), giving them seven losses in a row. That leaves them 78-73 on the year and SIX games behind the wild card-leading Mets, with THREE teams between them and New York. While the Reds are heading for another sub-.500 season, they have won four straight and seven of nine. Edinson Volquez (16-5, 3.22 ERA) will get the start for the Reds, while Kyle Lohse (13-6, 3.80 ERA) starts for the Cards. Lohse has had NO luck lately, going 1-4 with a 4.72 ERA over his last 10 starts, as the lack of run support during that stretch has seen the Cards go 2-8. The Cards have scored just 15 runs during their seven-game losing streak and I want no part of them in this game. Take the Reds.
Drew Gordon
1. 300,000♦ Colorado
2. 50,000♦ NY Yankees
3. 50,000♦ Cardinals
1. Colorado- First things first, this is NOT the 2007 version of the Mountaineers, as two things have become painfully clear with this new-look Bill Stewart led WVU squad: A. Pat White desperately misses playmakers RB Steve Slaton and WR Darius Reynaud, as their offense has struggled to get it done despite returning most everyone else from last years high-powered attack. And B. Bill Stewart's insistence on switching to a more pass-based pro-style attack has not gone over smoothly, as was clearly demonstrated by their 24-3 blowout loss at Eastern Carolina.
What's more is coach Stewart was quoted as saying he's going to back to the running attack in this contest, after Pat White tossed 51 passes in the first two games. Herein lies the problem, as the Buffaloes defense is especially stout against the run, and if Stewart stays true to his word (which I expect), they'll be playing right into the strength of this Colorado defense, allowing just 59 rushing yards per game thus far.
For all you West Virginia-backers out there, I got one question for you: How in the hell is a young and vulnerable WVU secondary going to stop Cody Hawkins and this high-powered Buffaloes passing attack?! Remember this stat: Opposing QBs are 43 of 55 for 502 yards against this Moutaineers defense thus far this season. That's right, two games and already the WVU secondary is getting exposed! More of the same tonight, as Hawkins puts on a clinic at home. Not to mention, when Hawkins isn't slinging the ball, star frosh RB Darrell Scott is just as dangerous as Noel Devine, if not more!
Finally, you have to believe the Buffaloes and their fans will be fired up in this national TV appearance. Look for a lot of energy coming from Colorado early and often in this one. Not to mention, the Buffaloes are also on a 5-0 run ATS in 2nd of back-to-back home games, which should tell you a little something about home field advantage. In the end, coach Stewart flip-flopping between pass-based and run-based attacks is a BAD sign, as his offense flounders in the confusion. Do not sleep on this Colorado team, especially at home, against a soft-ass WVU secondary. Buffaloes roll!
Take Colorado plus the points over West Virginia as your top-rated play of the day.
2. NY Yankees- For as much as the White Sox need to keep winning games, tonight's match up maybe biting off more than they chew. New York is playing well, and while its too little too late, there's no question they're highly motivated in their final homestand at their beloved Yankee Stadium.
While Mike Mussina hasn't pitched well of late, I expect he'll bounce back nicely tonight for two reasons: A. He's been downright nasty against the White Sox at home, going 6-1 with a 3.25 ERA in 7 career starts there. He's won 5 straight at Yankee Stadium against the White Sox, make it 6 after tonight! And B. He's coming off a tough home loss to the Rays, where he got tagged for 5 run in 5 innings. I fully expect he'll come out looking for redemption in this one, and he'll deliver, plain and simple.
Opposing Mussina is Javier Vazquez, who's looked good over his last 3 starts, but let's not get carried away... 2 of his last 3 starts came at home, where he's much more comfortable. On the road Vazquez is a different pitcher, going 5-7 with a 4.47 ERA. Not to mention, his career numbers against the Yankees leave a lot to be desired, going 1-4 with a 6.14 ERA in 5 starts! With the Yankees offense coming back to life, Vazquez will find himself in trouble tonight.
Finally, let's look at perhaps the biggest short term disparity, and that's the bullpen play. White Sox 'pen has been atrocious of late, posting a laughable 9.12 ERA over their last 10 games. New York on the other hand, has been rock-solid, posting a 2.88 ERA over the same span! In the end, look for the Yankees to take care of business as the suddenly sputtering White Sox will have to wait for a trip to Kansas City before picking up another much-needed win.
Take the NY Yankees behind Mussina over the Chicago White Sox and Vazquez in this MLB match up.
3. Cardinals- Looking over each team's recent play, I can understand why bettors would shy away from the Cardinals in this spot. But let me be the one to tell you, expect the Redbirds to snap out of their funk tonight, and here's why:
First, Edinson Volquez has not been the same pitcher of late, as his innings and pitch counts have risen, his effectiveness has declined. Sure, he was solid at soft-hitting Arizona in his last one, but the 3 starts prior saw him allow 14 runs over his last 18 innings, with no less than 110 pitches thrown in each start. Not only that but his command has been off, walking 6 in his last start, and allowing 16 hits over his last 3. Cardinals offense may be slumping, but a sputtering Volquez is just what the doctor ordered.
Second, let't not forget Kyle Lohse has some payback in order in this match up, as we all know him and Volquez do not like each other after their last meeting (where both pitcher threw at each other, resulting in a 5-game suspension for Lohse). Despite his struggles of late, going 1-4 with a 4.72 ERA over his last 10 starts, most of that is due to a slumping Cardinals offense, as he's posted a solid 2.33 ERA over his last 3 starts! Included in those starts were two excellent road efforts, where Lohse allowed 2 runs over his last 14 inning away!
Finally, for all the struggles of this St. Louis club, they still own the edge in two critical categories: A. Though they maybe slumping at the plate, their team batting average is still 15 points higher than the Reds over their last 10 games... So don't tell me the Reds offense is any better than the Cardinals right now. And B. despite their winning streak, the Reds bullpen has been highly suspect over their last 10 games, posting a 4.85 ERA, as compared to the Cards 2.48 ERA over the same span! In the end, look for the Cardinals to turn it around tonight in Cincy, as they take advantage of a seemingly fatigued Volquez, while Lohse gets his redemption in the process!
Take the Cardinals behind Lohse over the Reds and Volquez in this MLB match up
Players of America
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Colorado Buffaloes
The Play: West Virginia Mountaineers -3.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Welcome back to Week #4 of the 2008 college football season. This week is lining up to be a good one with several good teams digging themselves out of big time holes, and other underdogs popping up everywhere. On Thursday night, a very nice dual is set to take place in Colorado as the Buffalo are set to host the visiting #24 West Virginia Mountaineers. These are two well-above average squads this season. West Virginia comes in off a big time shocker losing to Cinderella Story East Carolina, while Colorado comes in 2-0 on the season and putting up some big time numbers maybe unexpectedly.
To cut to the chase, we'll be on the Mountaineers here tonight. West Virginia has something to prove, and that is that they are MUCH, MUCH better than the show they put on last week in Carolina. The fact behind that is.they really are. WVU is averaging a savvy 304 yards on offense per game along with an eye popping 5.8 yards per carry. Through the air, they are right around five and a half yards per toss, too. The stud himself, Patrick White, is finally healthy and ready to make his case as a big time professional prospect. He has a completion % of 72 on the year and has thrown 6 TD's and just one pick so far.
Colorado on the other hand shouldn't have too many problems keeping up with this offensive attack though. They average just over 350 yards per contest but only 3.4 per rush. Let's not short QB Cody Hawkins in this one at all. Cody is one heck of an athlete and is on the verge of turning that Buffalo program in a better direction. Cody has thrown two picks already this season along with four touchdowns.
This one is panning out to be a shootout and could have big time ramifications in a few short weeks. There is no reason that both of these teams don't combine for over 60 total points, hence making the total an attractive wager. However, the clear edge on such a short number to the home dog begs for action on the public favorite here tonight. Let's jump aboard and enjoy the show here, what do you say? Colorado has looked good to date, and is well improved, but too much experience, depth, speed and consistency will lead Pat White and his followers to a victory Thursday night in Colorado.
TRENDS OF THE GAME:
-West Virginia is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on grass
-West Virginia is 13-5 in their last 18 road games
West Virginia 37, Colorado 31
Accu Picks
4.5* Phil -1.5
4* Cin -130
4* NYM -1.5
3* KC -1.5
3* NYY
Triple Crown
4* SF
3* NYY
BEN BURNS
**MAJOR MISMATCH** PERSONAL FAVORITE
Tampa Bay Rays -155 vs Minnesota
I'm laying the price with TAMPA BAY. The Rays have been better than the Twins this season. They also come in as the hotter team. Additionally, they've been exceptional at home all year long AND they should have a significant advantage on the mound. Shields gets the call for the Rays and he's 9-2 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.006 WHIP in 16 home starts this season. The Rays were an extremely profitable 14-2 (+11.6) in those games. Shields' last start came at Yankee Stadium and he shut out the Yankees through eight complete innings. He allowed only five hits (6 K's, 0 walks) and the Rays won by a score of 7-1. In his last home start, Shields allowed just one run through seven complete innings en route to earning a 10-4 victory. Overall, he has a terrific 1.57 ERA and 0.913 WHIP his last three starts. Conversely, Perkins has a terrible 8.56 ERA and 2.121 WHIP his last three starts. For the season, he has a poor 4.91 ERA in 11 road starts. His last start came at Baltimore and he allowed six runs in just three innings. The Twins bailed him out in that game and he escaped with a no-decision. His teammates aren't likely to provide Perkins with that type of run support vs. Shields though. It should also be noted that Tampa Bay should have a decided edge in the relief department. Heading into yesterday's action, the Rays' bullpen had a combined 2.95 ERA and 1.117 WHIP at home. On the other hand, the Twins' relievers had a combined 5.53 ERA and 1.579 WHIP on the road. For the season, the Twins are 34-44 on the road while the Rays are 55-22 at home. The Rays have regained their confidence and come off back-to-back momentum-building victories over the Red Sox. The Twins just got swept by the Indians and are still likely feeling the effects of a devastating extra-inning loss on Tuesday which saw them rally from a 7-run deficit only to see closer Joe Nathan serve up the first game-winning home run of his career. The Rays have been outstanding as home favorites in this range this season and given all their advantages, I feel that the current price is very fair.
Jeff Bonds
Triple-Dime Bet
West Virginia -2.5 vs Colorado
We're getting TREMENDOUS LINE VALUE on a team that has a 34-6 record over its last 40 games - especially when considering that East Carolina is a Top 10 caliber team - displaying that in shutting down both Virginia Tech and West Virginia in back-to-back weeks.
West Virginia has had two weeks to get prepared for this ESPN clash and will undoubtedly get back to is winnings ways and that's RUNNING THE FOOTBALL.
Why is this important you ask? Well the Colorado Buffaloes are 0-12-1 ATS when getting outrushed by an opponent during the Dan Hawkins' era, which includes an 0-4-1 mark at home.
That's trouble considering that West Virginia has outrused all 17 opponents on the road the past three years and 34 of its last 35 opponents overall. They've managed to produce 4,711 yards on the ground compared to just 1,591 for their opponents.
West Virginia still has some players that are not use to losing, as this is the first time the current senior class has been at a .500 record - which is VERY IMPORTANT when preparing for a game.
Finally - West Virginia relishes this type of road situation, as they are 7-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games - covering the spread by 6.5 points.
Andre Gomes
Double-Dime Bet
FLA / HOU Over 8
Unfortunately the hurricane Ike didn't just cause damages on the social life of thousands of people, but also in the sports life of the city and the Astros were one of the victims. The Astros were the hottest team in the whole MLB until September, 11th. But then the hurricane Ike prevented the Astros from playing until September, 14th and then all the momentum was gone. The team lost 4 consecutive games, with the offense being awful with .000, .037, .152 and .182 of Batting average. For this game, I expect the team to improve a little bit in the offense and I'll explain why later, with the Marlins at the same time being in a great run and fighting for the postseason via wildcard. Yesterday's game ended with a Marlins win by 14-2 and for today, I expect an high scoring affair once again, but much closer.
The Astros will send Alberto Arias, who on his debut for the Astros against the Pirates went scoreless in 5 innings, allowing just 2 hits. Even though he had a great debut, I expect today's game to be much different, as first of all Houston was on-fire at the time of his debut, with an huge momentum, which gave a lot of confidence to Arias, while right now the team is currently on a losing streak and lacking confidence. And to make things even worse, they will face a team with a great momentum right now, with 7 wins in a row and when this team has confidence, they are extremely dangerous in the offense, with them being 19-9 Over after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
On the other side, the Marlins will send the southpaw Scott Olsen and this may be the solution for the offense of the Astros. Olsen comes from a quality start against the Nationals, where he allowed just 1 run in 6 innings, but he has been terrible lately, as he allowed 4-6-4-4-3-5 runs before this quality outing. So I wouldn't be surprised if he has another letdown today. That's good news for the offense of the Astros, which has been horrible lately, but we need to remember that they faced Zambrano, Lilly, Volstad and Nolasco, which didn't help them at all and today against Olsen, their task will be much easier.
Houston is 14-2 Over after allowing 12 runs or more over the last 3 seasons and I expect a good response from both offenses today. The line is at 8 runs, so it is accessible, having in account the scenario of this game. Take the over in here. Double Dime Pick!
NYM -1.5 (-125) vs WAS
Dime Bet
This play has as a basic fundament an important psychological analysis, which combined to a technical analysis makes the Mets an excellent option for this game. Yesterday's win over the Nationals was extremely important in psychological terms, as we all remember the collapse of the Mets at the end of last season, where the Mets didn't hold a decent lead over the Phillies and ended up out of the postseason. The team entered a similar situation lately, as the team before yesterday's game had lost 3 of their last 4 games and curiously the Nationals were the responsible team for the two previous losses of the Mets and coincidence or not, it was also the Nats the team which was the main responsible for the Mets' last season collapse. If we add the fact that the Mets were coming from yesterday's game with just 2 and 0 runs scored in their previous two games, their scenario for yesterday's game wasn't great. However the Mets won yesterday by 9-7 and this win was one of the most important of the season for them and the team will now come more confident for today's game. This was the psychological analysis of the team.
The technical analysis also gives an edge for the Mets today. Johan Santana will start and this means the bullpen will have some rest today, which is great news for the team. The Mets are 7-1 in Santana's last 8 starts and he has been awesome in the second half of the season, not allowing more than 3 runs in any of his last 10 starts.
On the other side, the Nationals will send Tim Redding, who comes from three outings where he struggled and had an ERA of 4.58. He has already beaten this season his record for most innings in a season and probably that's the reason why he has been struggling lately.
The Mets have a great chance to win today, with their ace in the field. The Nationals are 3-14 in their last 17 home games vs LHP, which is a good sign for the Mets, which comes to this game with their confidence back. I predict another struggle for Redding today, with the Mets being 5-1 in their last 6 games during a Game 4 of a series. I expect an easy win for the Mets today, so I'll take them on the runline in here
STL (+124) vs CIN
Dime Bet
Normally, one of my rules in handicapping MLB is to not try to guess when a losing streak of a team is going to end. Today the scenario for the Cardinals is exactly this one: the team is coming from 7 defeats in a row and they are getting too far from the Wildcard, which would give them a place in the postseason. On the other side, the Reds are in a good phase right now, having won 4 games in a row and 7 of their last 9 games. Today that's the spot we find for this game and I think the Cardinals are an excellent dog for tonight and with a great chance to win.
They will send Kyle Lohse, who has been doing a good season with a 13-6 and 3.80 ERA record, even though he had a better first part of the season than the second one. However this game has some special conditions for Lohse, whose last outing was exactly against the Reds and in that game there was an incident, which originated a suspension for Lohse of 5 games. The situation was considered to be unfair, as the Cards manager later told:
"The other guy threw two balls at guys' heads," La Russa said. "I don't know, I'm just shocked."
So, I expect Lohse to have an excellent performance today, having in account this will be a revenge game for him and he comes to this outing with 7 days of rest.
On the other side, the Reds will send Edinson Volquez, who has been doing a tremendous season with 16-5 and 3.22 ERA, however on his last 3 outings, he had very long outings and sooner or later, this will have its consequences. He had 4.82 ERA in those 3 starts and in each game, he threw 117, 119 and 121 pitches, with just 4 days off to rest between games. This very high number of pitches will make him struggle and already on his last outing against the D-Backs, he showed that, as he allowed 6 walks, something not usual for him.
For this game, I expect a good outing for Lohse, which will want to take revenge from what they did to him in the last game, while Volquez is due a letdown, so having in account the price of the Cardinals today, we have an excellent spot that we can't refuse, so take the Cards to win today
Comp
WAS / NYM Over 9
The Mets who had a good advantage of 3 games over the Phillies in the NL East lead have suddenly stopped playing baseball by losing 4 of their last 5 games and they are now once again behind the Phillies and with a little advantage over the Brewers in the fight for the NL Wildcard. Yesterday the team went scoreless with just .133 BA and .295 OPS! Terrible numbers for a team which is trying to reach the postseason. Today I expect a bounce back from the offense of the Mets, as the spot is much different. In the two defeats of the Mets, they face 2 pitchers who are in a good moment and are able to go deep into the games, while making good quality starts. That was the case of Lannan and Perez yesterday. Today the scenario will be much different.
The Nationals will send Shairon Martis, who will make his third start for the Nats. Martis allowed 2 runs in each game, while pitching for 5 innings in both outings against the Braves and the Marlins. However there are some details that shows us that under pressure, Martis will struggle a lot. The truth is that Marquis allowed 5 walks against the Braves and 3 walks against the Marlins. Take also note that from the first game to the second, he had 7 days of rest and for this game he had just 4 days and on his last outing against the Marlins, he threw more than 100 pitches, in an high count number game. So, I expect the offense of the Mets to take advantage of this, especially as they are 20-11 Over after scoring 2 runs or less this season.
On the other side, I also expect the Nationals to be better offensively today. First of all, the team isn't the same weak offensive club that they were a couple of months ago. Just look that even though they are 2-5 in their last 7 games, they averaged 5.1 runs and .354 BA! Today the Mets will send Brandon Michael Knight, who has just made one outing this season as a SP, in July, where he allowed 4 runs and 7 hits in 5 innings against the Cardinals. After this outing, he has played as a reliever in 2 outings and as a matter of fact, on his last outing, he faced the Nationals, where he struggled a lot in just 1 inning, allowing 1 run and 1 walk, while needing 24 pitches to close the inning! So, I also expect Knight to struggle today and the Nationals should be able to take advantage of this.
The Over is 5-0 in the last 5 Games of the Nationals in a Game 3 of a series and 7-2-1 in the Nats last 10 home games. It's also curious to see that Washington is 10-1 Over in home games after allowing 2 runs or less in two straight games over the last 3 seasons. I expect a game with a lot of runs, as the team won't have good pitchers on the field and the fact that the two previous games of this series have been such low scoring affairs has sent this line from 9,5 to 9 runs, which gave a lot more value than the line had when it was opened. On my research, I've also found out a really interesting trend for the over:
All teams where the total is 9 to 9,5 and are off from 2 straight upset wins over division rivals as a home underdog and have just won 38% to 46% of their games on the season are 31-9 Over since 1997.
So, I'm taking the over in here. Double Dime Play
Tony George
Dime Bet
NYY / CWS Under 8.5
Earlier this month these two played 3 games and all 3 went under. Look for a pitchers duel tonight with Mussina for NY and Vasquez for the White Sox, whose last 3 starts his ERA is under 2. The White Sox as a team are hitting right handers at .247 in the last 10 games, and the Yanks hitting only .250 in the same timeframe. Not a whopping average by any stretch. 2 Good Picthers, 2 teams struggling at the plate, in a tightly contested game. NY has went under 6 out of their last 8 games, the Sox are 6-2 on unders with road starts for Vasquez.
Play 1 Unit on the Under tonight.
Bob Balfe
West Virginia/Colorado Under 56.5
WVU is know as an explosive offense, but they did nothing against ECU and were expected to put up points on Villanova. Pat White has not been the same threat as a mobile QB since he was banged up last year and West Virginia doesn't really scare you with their wide receivers. Colorado has a tough 6 game schedule which will put them back up among the best teams in the nation if they can play well. The Buffs know they need to control the pace of the game and so far the WVU defense has been on the field a lot. If Colorado can take their time and not try to turn this into a shootout they will have a better chance of winning. The Buffs defense plays great against the run and should contain WVU tonight. WVU will get middle linebacker Reed Williams back tonight which will help this defense tremendously. Take the Under.
Major League Baseball
Dodgers/Pirates Over 8 runs
Savannah Sports
2 Units on Colorado +3
Scott Rickenbach
Minnesota at Tampa Bay
2* (Top Play) OVER
This line has now dropped to an 8 in most books and that means it’s “go time” with this one. Even if the best you can do in this match-up is an 8.5 this is still a fantastic value! We are getting tremendous line value here because this pitching match-up has many people thinking “under” when the reality is that this one has “over” written all “over” it. If the Twins can pound out 14 hits in yesterday’s game when they had to face Cliff Lee of the Indians, do you really think they’re going to have any trouble against James Shields of the Rays? Granted, Shields has some very impressive numbers for the Rays this season, particularly at home. However, he’s facing a Twins team that has given him problems in his career and Minnesota will also certainly be comfortable hitting against Shields at Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay because the Twins are use to hitting indoors since their home games are played at the Metrodome in Minneapolis! Note that the Twins are hitting a stellar .287 on turf this season. Shields has been hammered at a .347 clip in his three career starts against the Twins and that includes getting roughed up in April of this year. Also note that, despite solid overall stats at home this season, Shields has allowed 33 hits in his last 28 innings at Tropicana Field. With the Twins coming off of a 14-hit day at the plate Wednesday they will stay hot here. Speaking of being hot at the plate, the Rays are on a rock solid run! They’ve averaged over five runs per game in going 5-3 in their last eight games and they won’t slow down versus a struggling Glen Perkins tonight. The Twins southpaw has allowed at least four runs in eight of his last ten starts! He’s been particularly struggling in his last four starts as he’s allowed 19 runs (17 earned) on 32 hits in just 20.2 innings of work. Now he must deal with a red-hot Rays club that is oozing with confidence after taking two of three from the Red Sox. Perkins is 5-1 on the road this season but be careful when evaluating a pitcher based on his record only. The fact is that Perkins has been roughed up on the road this season and that’s why he has a 4.91 ERA and a .305 BAA in his starts away from home. This is the first season that Perkins was ever used as a starter at the MLB level and he appears to be wearing down. Particularly disturbing about this for Twins fans tonight is that the Minnesota bullpen has been struggling badly! The Minnesota relievers are responsible for 10 of the Twins last 16 losses and they were the responsible party again in yesterday’s 6-4 loss. The fact that this total has dropped to an 8 is just “gravy” as this one easily earned my top play rating based on the situational edges noted above. Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay as a Top Play selection
Thanks a lot for the service plays..Doc's Sports College Game of the Year goes Saturday,hope we can get piece of that:) ;D
Shouldn't be a problem getting it and your welcome.
Are we getting Insider Sports picks aswell? I am hearing that they are ver good..Thanks for the Picks!