EZWINNERS
5 STAR: (918) OAKLAND (+$104) over LA Angels
(Action) (Risking $500 to win $520)
5 STAR: (902) PITTSBURGH (+$113) over LA Dodgers
(Listing Maholm only)
(Risking $500 to win $565)
11:35PM Central Time
Game's off, but if anyone's tracking them - FYI
The King Maker
West Virginia -3.0 vs Colorado 1-Unit
I can see why they slapped a 3 on this game, and I can certainly see why the pub may have Colorado on their radar.
It's been easy for us to take advantage aof a few Big East teams, like we did with Louisville last night, South Florida (push) the other night, and now West Virginia tonight.
The Big 12 is supposedly the POWER conference, and the Big East is full of overrated units, right?
People tend to see overall Conference strength as an indicator to individual team performance. That's a foolish mistake.
Sometimes you just have to look at a matchup in terms of overall team speed, special teams, and sheer talent.
West Virginia is much faster than Colorado.
Speed is a tangible asset in games like this.
My guy in Morgantown is telling me that the Mountaineers are practicing angry, barking out the right kind of reinforcement, and actually behaving like a hungry team. Word out of that camp is that they were woefully overconfidant at the beginning of this season, and the loss to ECU has apparently straightened out the WVU mindset.
I have a feeling that WVU is going to smack Colordao in the mouth, and if they don't turn the ball over, then we will see a comfortable win, tonight.
I'm not sure how they could set a line like 3 on this game, but apparently people were buying on both sides of the wager, so the line held.
That's good for us!
If you're asking me why I'm basing my play on SPEED, SPECIAL TEAMS, and EMOTION, then I'll tell you that this REALLY helps when you're simply better than a team in all three phases of the game.
Time of Possession
The Colorado defense has allowed both of their opponents to control the clock. That's acceptable against the likes of Colorado State (sort of), but there's no excuse for Easter Washington to control the game clock like they did.
This is one of the Killers for Colorado. They have to outscore WVU, and they can't do that if the WVU offense is on the field as long as Eastern Washington was!
Colorado State held the ball for almost 5 minutes longer than Colorado, and Eastern Washington OUT-FIRST DOWNED Colorado (18-17) and shared the time of possession!
That's a sign of a terrible secondary, and a suspect D-Line.
Combine this lack of STOPPING POWER with one of the Nation's best punters, and you can see the possibility of quite a few long fields for the Buffs.
I don't see any indication as to why WVU wont hold the ball as long as Colorado State or Eastern! Am I missing something?
WVU has 20 seniors on that team, and they are NOT going to come out like a bunch of freightened children.
Did you know that they have some kind of chamber that mimics the thin air of Colorado?
Speaking of thin air, and punting.....yeah....the ball travels.
Is Colorado thin on the edges?
They apparently have 4 Freshman and one Senior listed at the defensive end position. This is probably the reason why teams are moving the ball on Colorado. Those Freshman tend to wilt as the game progresses, and they haven't developed the skills needed to beat an experience Offensive Tackle.
I will harp on this for a moment, becuase that STRONG WVU OL is getting severely overlooked tonight! This is a matchup that I think WVU will dominate.
Teams are passing on this Colorado team, and people blame the secondary, but it originates on the edges with that young set of defensive ends.
Those issues will be pronounced tonight!
Punting the ball:
The Colorado punter averaged 31 yards per punt against Colorado State, and he has landed the ball inside the 20 NEVER.
He may be better than that, but the outlook is not good for them, AND THE WVU KICKING GAME IS FAR BETTER! FAR FAR BETTER!
This also makes the HEAVILY DANGEROUS return game for Colorado, a little less potent, becuase WVU's kicker is a speacialist, and he handles the punting duties well. With the thin air in Colorado, this may serve to give us strong punts and a lack of return.
(as long as we don't outkick the coverage.)
Pat McAfee, the WVU kicker and punter is a game changer, and may be able to give us the boost we need to secure the cover.
The big deal here is the kick-off! McAfee has to be extra good, and the ball needs to hit the end zone. The Colorado returner is averaging 50 yards per kickoff return.
Again: the thin air may help us. He can reach the end zone already, so I'm hopeful for containment.
Here's my case:
I think the Colorado ENDS are overrated. This may be the opening that we needed for a massive, and experienced offensive line to exploit.
We must crash into the second level with our interior.
I'm pretty confident that we can do this.
The Colorado rush defense looks good on paper, but they faced bad running teams, and smaller lines. WVU has under performed, and they are on a mission, with a longer break than usual to prepare, and a smaller D-line than the one ECU had.
The key here is GETTING A HAT ON THE LINEBACKERS! Those are the STARS of the Colorado defense. If you blow up the Colorado LB's then that defense will fal apart.
I'm certain the key FUNDAMENTAL battle zone is in the second level tonight. If WVU filters their interior linemen into the second level, then we will take this game by 2 touchdowns.
If not: then it will be a war.
I think we are in great shape!
King Creole
Double-Dime Bet
Colorado +3.0 vs West Virginia
The Mountaineers of West Virginia will get a REAL taste of the mountains tonight, as they must endure the SEVERE altitude adjustment in Boulder, Colorado. And in most cases, we look to play AGAINST a sea-level visiting favorite or very small underdog at a stadium one mile or more above sea level when all factors indicate a close game. It actually takes about 10 days for the body to completely acclimate to altitude, so teams making road trips to the Rocky Mountains simply don't have enough time to fully adjust. They often struggle, especially in the second half of a game. Colorado does have a large altitude edge as they have been in it for TWO months while West Virginia just came in this week after a couple of weeks at home, where the altitude is just under 1000 feet. The Buffaloes have done well in recent seasons with an extended stay at home in the mountains, as they have won their last 6 games SU there when coming off a previous home game, and since 2005 in this spot they are an incredible 5-0 SU (+25 ppg) & 5-0 ATS (+21.8 ppg) including outright upset wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma. In fact, BOTH teams come in off an early-season WEEK OF REST.... and the Playbook database tells us to play on the HOME team in certain conditions. This situation had qualifier as recently as last night, with LOUISVILLE being the play against Kansas State. College Football GAME THREE home teams are 15-3 ATS since 2001 when BOTH teams come in with REST (Colorado / West Virginia). And in non-conference games (like last night and TONIGHT), the results shoot up to a PERFECT 8-0 ATS (after last night's win).
The Millionaires Club Guaranteed Selections
92% HIGH ROLLER BASEBALL RUN LINE WINNER
Philadelphia w/Hamels -1.5 -135
Rick George Guaranteed Selections
6* NY Yankees -135
Kevin Francis Guaranteed Selections
5000* DIAMOND DOMINATOR MISMATCH PLAY OF THE YEAR
Tampa Bay w/Shields -163
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
5000 LARGE PERSONAL FAVORITE MLB WINNER
Tampa Bay w/Shields -168
Elite Sports Circle Guaranteed Selections
5000* ELITE BASEBALL WINNER
Arizona w/Johnson +100
BEN BURNS
**MAJOR MISMATCH** PERSONAL FAVORITE
Tampa Bay Rays -155 vs Minnesota
I'm laying the price with TAMPA BAY. The Rays have been better than the Twins this season. They also come in as the hotter team. Additionally, they've been exceptional at home all year long AND they should have a significant advantage on the mound. Shields gets the call for the Rays and he's 9-2 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.006 WHIP in 16 home starts this season. The Rays were an extremely profitable 14-2 (+11.6) in those games. Shields' last start came at Yankee Stadium and he shut out the Yankees through eight complete innings. He allowed only five hits (6 K's, 0 walks) and the Rays won by a score of 7-1. In his last home start, Shields allowed just one run through seven complete innings en route to earning a 10-4 victory. Overall, he has a terrific 1.57 ERA and 0.913 WHIP his last three starts. Conversely, Perkins has a terrible 8.56 ERA and 2.121 WHIP his last three starts. For the season, he has a poor 4.91 ERA in 11 road starts. His last start came at Baltimore and he allowed six runs in just three innings. The Twins bailed him out in that game and he escaped with a no-decision. His teammates aren't likely to provide Perkins with that type of run support vs. Shields though. It should also be noted that Tampa Bay should have a decided edge in the relief department. Heading into yesterday's action, the Rays' bullpen had a combined 2.95 ERA and 1.117 WHIP at home. On the other hand, the Twins' relievers had a combined 5.53 ERA and 1.579 WHIP on the road. For the season, the Twins are 34-44 on the road while the Rays are 55-22 at home. The Rays have regained their confidence and come off back-to-back momentum-building victories over the Red Sox. The Twins just got swept by the Indians and are still likely feeling the effects of a devastating extra-inning loss on Tuesday which saw them rally from a 7-run deficit only to see closer Joe Nathan serve up the first game-winning home run of his career. The Rays have been outstanding as home favorites in this range this season and given all their advantages, I feel that the current price is very fair.
BLUE CHIP
Double-Dime Bet
Colorado / West Virginia Under 57.0
I'm playing on West Virginia and Colorado to finish UNDER the total. With Bill Stewart taking over for Rich Rodriguez, the Mountaineers changed up their offensive philosophy this season. The primary change has been a larger percentage of pass plays, a shift from power to finesse. Normally, a higher percentage of passing plays would lead to higher-scoring games. However, the 'old' Mountaineers already had a very potent attack. In fact, they scored 28 or more points in 11 of their 13 games last season. The current offensive players are still used to the old system though and if their last game is any indication, they haven't adjusted to the new system very well. Indeed, the Mountaineers were unable to control the ball on offense and finished with a mere three points. It was the first time they'd been held without an offensive touchdown since 2001, in Rodriguez's first year as coach. This week, they'll face a Colorado defense which brought back eight starters this season and which has allowed 20.5 points per game through the first two games, seeing the 'under' go 1-0 in their lone lined game. Looking back at the last couple of seasons and we find that the Buffaloes have seen the UNDER go 7-2 in their last nine non-conference games and 11-5 during that time when listed as underdogs. The Colorado offense has put up a reasonable amount of points thus far but both games came against weak defenses. This week, they'll face a Mountaineers' defense which will receive a boost and be fired up by the expected return of Reed Williams, who will be playing for the first time this season. Williams' return is significant, as he led the Mountaineers in tackles last season and was the defensive MVP of the Fiesta Bowl. He'll also bring valuable leadership to the defense and the entire unit should elevate its game. The Mountaineers have seen the UNDER go 7-4 the past two seasons when playing in the road favorite role. I look for those numbers to improve as tonight's game proves lower-scoring than expected. *Blue Chip
Joyce Sterling
10* Colorado +3
Are we getting Insider Sports picks aswell? I am hearing that they are ver good..Thanks for the Picks!
I don't think I have ever seem nothing but comps from them
Insider Sports Report
L.A. Angels -130
The Millionaires Club Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, September 18, 2008
92% HIGH ROLLER BASEBALL RUN LINE WINNER
Philadelphia w/Hamels -1.5 -135 7:10 EST
Elite Sports Circle Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, September 18, 2008
5000* ELITE BASEBALL WINNER
Arizona w/Johnson +100 9:40 EST
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, September 18, 2008
5000 LARGE PERSONAL FAVORITE MLB WINNER
Tampa Bay w/Shields -168 7:10 EST
Kevin Francis Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, September 18, 2008
5000* DIAMOND DOMINATOR MISMATCH PLAY OF THE YEAR
Tampa Bay w/Shields -163 7:10 EST