Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Houston Astros -1.5 +116
Houston and Roy Oswalt will keep fighting until they are mathematically eliminated from the postseason. Beating up on the Reds by at least 2 runs won’t be a problem for Oswalt and company. Get this, Roy Oswalt is 21-1 with a 2.58 ERA in 25 lifetime starts against Cincinnati. He has only suffered one loss in 25 outings against the Reds. If that’s not domination then I don’t know what is. The Astros have won his last 2 starts against Cincinnati by 3 runs each. Johnny Cueto is 0-2 with a 6.50 ERA lifetime against Houston. Oswalt is 17-4 vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The Astros are winning his starts against these teams by an average of 1.6 runs/game. Cash in with the Astros on the -1.5 Run Line as Oswalt shuts down the Reds once again.
CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS
NY YANKEES vs TORONTO BLUE JAYS
PLAY: YANKEES/ BLUE JAYS OVER 8
LT Profits
Cincinnati Reds +175
Roy Oswalt of the Houston Astros carries a 22-1 career record vs. the Cincinnati Reds into this contest tonight including 3-0 this year, and he is simultaneously trying to keep the slim Astros playoff hopes alive. Well, we feel that Houston supporters may be in line for a huge surprise.
First of all, Oswalt has not been as unhittable as usual vs. the Reds this year, as they have actually managed 21 hits plus five walks in 19 innings off of him. They have failed to get many key hits however, managing six runs in those three games with four coming in one game. Still, if they can get just three runs here, it just may be good enough to pull the upset.
This is due to a combination of Reds starter Johnny Cueto pitching well lately, Cincinnati having a good bullpen and the Houston offense going in the tank as of late. Cueto has now allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts, and he has the support of a Reds pen that ranks third in the National League with a 3.78 ERA. They are facing an Astros lineup that is batting an anorexic .200 over the last 10 games while averaging just 2.60 runs per game.
We anticipate a very low scoring game here, and in what should be a tight game late, we see great value in having the better bullpen at this fat price.
Pick: Reds +175
Drew Gordon
Southern Methodist at TULANE -18
Let's make one thing clear: June Jones has a LONG way to go at Southern Methodist. His pass-heavy offense requires more time than most to grasp, and anyone who's seen the Mustangs play will agree with me. Coach Jones has said it would take at least 4 games before his kids "get it," but after watching them get stomped two weeks in a row, its clear they're a at least a season away, and they'll be more proof of that tonight.
Biggest problem for SMU and freshman QB Bo Levi Mitchelll, is the Green Wave's surprsingly stout defense, which stood their ground against the likes of Alabama and East Carolina. With 13 sacks in their first 3 games, thier stop-unit is not only solid, but a young QBs nightmare. Mitchell has a pathetic 58% completion percentage and has already thrown 10 picks this season... Talk about a perfect storm for SMU-backers!
On the flip side, you can talk about June Jones offense until your red in the face, but what about the Mustange defense (or lackthereof)?! SMU is allowing a mind-boggling 45.8 ppg on 530 yards of total offense! Tulane's offense may not be a juggernaut, but fact remains, they have the weapons with QB Moore and RB Anderson to take advantage of paper mache Mustangs D. Tulane's offense struggled early because of tough match ups against Alabama and East Carolina, but looked solid last week against Louisiana Monroe... Look for more of the same tonight at home!
From a trend standpoint, the Green Wave are 5-1 ATS over their last 6 games, including 3-0 ATS this season. Also, they're 4-1 ATS in their last 5 match ups against losing teams, so you know they can put 'em away when they should. In the end, Tulane's sack happy defense makes all the difference, as once they break open the game, it goes from bad to worse for a terrible SMU squad forced to play from behind. Green Wave rolls!
Take Tulane BIG over Southern Methodist in this C-USA match up.
2♦ TULANE
JEFF BENTON
Marlins-Nationals OVER
These teams have combined for 13 runs in each of the first two games of this series (both 9-4 finals), and they’ve now tallied double-digit runs in 11 of their 17 head-to-head meetings this season, including six of eight in Washington. As a result, the over is 10-5-2 in this rivalry in 2008, including 6-0-1 in D.C.
Tonight, we’ve got a recipe for another high-scoring affair, as two mediocre pitchers take the mound in Florida’s Anibal Sanchez (2-5, 5.57 ERA in 2008) and Washington’s Colin Balester (3-6, 4.83). Both right-hander’s have ERAs north of 5.00 in their last three starts, and the over has been the play in three of Sanchez’s last four outings, and each of Balester’s last four trips to the bump have gone high.
Furthermore, the over is 3-0 in Sanchez’s three starts against the Nationals since the start of last season, and 2-0 in Balester’s two career efforts against Florida (both this year). Also, the over is 6-2 in Florida’s last eight games overall, 18-7-1 in the Nats’ last 26 overall and 12-4-1 in the last 17 Nats home games.
Throw in two shaky bullpens – Florida’s relievers have a 6.49 ERA over the last 10 games; Washington’s bully has a 5.27 ERA in its last 10 – and this has all the makings of another double-digit shootout.
5♦ Marlins-Nationals OVER the total
Scott Delaney
Brewers on the Run Line is the play, as they continue to fight for a spot in the postseason. Bottom line is, with what the higher ups in MLB are forcing upon the Mets with projected weather for the weekend, Milwaukee has no choice but to close out the season doing its part - and that's to win big.
The Brewers are at home, they're facing a team that has a starting rotation that can be ripped up and down, and they're most certainly one of the best hitting teams on their own field.
To stay hot, and to stay in contention, the Brewers win big tonight and head into the weekend on a roll.
BREWERS RUN LINE
Lenny Del Genio
Chicago Cubs at New York Mets
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
Things continue to get worse for the Metropolitans tonight as they are now an underdog against Rich Harden, who has seen his team win 30 of his last 39 starts (obviously going well back into his days in Oakland). We used to like Pedro Martinez a lot, but it?s not 1999 anymore, and the New York hurler is 0-3 with a 7.87 ERA in his last three starts. We went against him in his last outing, a 4-2 loss to a very subpar Braves team. Cubs have taken four of five meetings with the Mets this season. Way too much pressure on the home side tonight and they will crack as per usual. Take Chicago Cubs.
John Ryan
SMU vs. Tulane
Play: SMU +17.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on SMU – AiS shows a 78% probability that SMU will lose this game by 17 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 65-29 ATS for 69% since 2002. Play on any team with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season and after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Take the Ponies.
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets
Play: Mets
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Mets – Mets literally in a must win situation now trailing Philadelphia by 1.5 games. A loss is devastating to their divisional championship aspirations, but they do own the tie-breaker should they end the season tied. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 37-14 making 30.3 units since 1997. Play against all teams with a money line of -100 to -150 that is a good offensive team scoring >=5.0 runs/game and is now facing a below NL average starter sporting an ERA= 5.20 to 5.70 after a combined score of 15 runs or more. Mets in a strong role noting that they are 14-5 (+10.0 Units) against the money line versus a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better over the last 2 seasons.
Priceless Picks
1 unit on Boston Red Sox -162
The Indians are just 1-7 in the last 8 meetings against the Red Sox and having Sowers on the hill does not give them a good chance to win tonight. The Indians are 0-6 in Sowers' last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record, 2-9 in Sowers' last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record, and just 3-8 in Sowers' last 11 road starts period. The Red Sox are 41-12 in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and a dominant 39-16 in their last 55 vs. the American League Central. Take the Sox.
Sammy Jankus, The Reverse Barometer!
Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeup.
Arizona at St. Louis
3* ARIZONA -101
Cards dropped the series opener with Arizona then proceeded to skin the Diamondbacks in consecutive decisions. With the desert reptiles still trying to chase down the Dodgers, the pressure will be too much for them to handle this afternoon at Busch Stadium. I look for affordably priced St. Louis to SMASH THE SNAKES one more time – so your play is on ARIZONA.
Wunderdog
Chicago at Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota -144The noose is tightening around the necks of the White Sox as their lead is down to just a half game over the Twins. The Twins have taken the first two games and are playing loose and free. This is the pivotal game. If the Twins lose they are two back with three to play. The White Sox are 10 games under .500 on the road while the Twins are 25 over at home, but barely over .500 against right hand pitching. Kevin Slowey has been a full 1.5 runs better at home, 3.04 vs. his road ERA of 4.52, and the Twins are now 7-1 in his last eight home starts. Gavin Floyd has a road ERA of over four, and the Pale Hose are just 7-7 in his last 14 road starts. Minnesota has been 32-10 over their last 42 at home, and I like them to take over first place in the AL Central with the win here.
USC at Oregon State
Pick: Oregon St. +25
We're 8-2 thus far on our mid-week CFB plays. We look to take that to 9-2 with this pick. The Trojans take their #1 ranking to Corvallis to take on the Beavers of Oregon State, a team no one things can hang. USC has been impressive in their first two games, outscoring the opponents 87-10. Heck, they beat Ohio State by more than this spread. But, I like the home team in this spot. USC seems to always be one of those teams that throws up a stinker or two every year. No better spot than here. The Trojans have to be drinking their own koolaid and how can they get up for this game after their big game vs. Ohio State. If ever there's a spot for overconfidence, this is it. The USC talent is rich, but they take parts of games off, and appear disinterested at times. Who could forget a loss at home last year as a 39 point chalk to lowly Stanford. Then just two years ago, running off to a 6-0 start and looking like they were gonna run the table, they come to Corvallis as a double-digit chalk and lose the game outright. They don't show for the trivial games, and as a double-digit road chalk over the last three years they have managed just a 4-8 ATS record. Oregon State has enough offense to find the endzone a couple times and make this one stay within a lofty number. Sure, a few Beaver turnovers and this could get out of hand. But, on the flipside, a few USC mistakes and covering 25 on the road starts to look difficult. The Beavers have had two weeks to prepare for this and you know they and their fans will be up for this. Under Mike Riley, this team is 9-2 ATS coming off their bye week! If history repeats, USC will show a lack of interest in covering. Oregon State has covered five of their last six games as a home dog to a Top 10 team and USC is just 1-6 ATS in their last seven Pac-10 road openers. I'll ride the big number on the Beavers at home.