Bettorsworld
JETS AT PATS
One word comes to mind when looking at this Thursday Night AFC East clash.......HUGE. These two sit at 6-3 on the year in one of the most tightly contested divisions in the NFL this year as both the Dolphins and Bills sit at 5-4. Obviously, a win here and a 7-3 record puts some space between the winner here and the rest of the pack. For the Pats, that would also give them one up on the Jets as they would have beaten them twice.
Remember when you were in grade school and the teacher would toss your lowest test score of the marking period before averaging your grade? Seems fair, right? Everyone has off days. Well, we can do the same thing when handicapping football games. Also fair. Hey, all teams have off days. In the case of he Pats and Jets you can toss two games each that don't seem to if with the rest of the results. For the Jets were going to toss the Charger game and actually a win over the Cards. Why the win? Because the game was uncharacteristic of the way the Jets have played defensively this year at least as far as total points given up in a game and will distort the point we are getting at. But keep in mind that in that game, the Jets SHUT OUT the high powered Cardinals offense in the first half taking a 34-0 lead into the locker room at halftime. You can discount the entire 2nd half really. For the Pats we will toss the Charger game, a 30-10 loss and the Dolphin game early in the year, a 38-13 loss. Again, both uncharacteristic when compared to the season as a whole. Especially when considering, in the Pats case, they had just lost their franchise QB with Brady going down.
When we toss the two games for each team, we are left with two very similar teams with very similar results. For the Jets we have a team averaging 24 points per game on offense while giving up just 15. They gave up 24 to the Chiefs. Other than that they have held everyone to 19 points or less. For the Pats, we see a team averaging 23.5 points per game while giving up just 13 on average. Very good numbers for both teams. Numbers which would put them both among the NFL's elite when just taking those numbers into consideration. The numbers ring true as far as the difference between these two teams because both have played a similar schedule. The Pats have had it a bit tougher only because they have faced the Colts already (who, by the way, are down a notch in case no one has noticed). Otherwise, you have games against the Chiefs, 49ers, Broncos, Rams and Bills. Likewise for the Jets. Bengals, Chiefs, Bills, Rams and the worst of all, a loss to the Raiders.
So, very similar results against very similar teams. Safe to say the Jets have performed a little better than the Pats offensively, and why not with Brett Favre having a little more time to learn the Jets schemes. The Pats have performed a little better then the Jets defensively, giving up 21 to the 49ers but holding the rest to 18 or less. Again, we are excluding those two games mentioned above. Brady going down is the difference in the Pats season to this point. The Pats are still the Pats at all other positions. They are still the Pats of a year ago defensively. Insert Brady and who knows what we'd be looking at offensively for the Pats thus far but you know it would be better than what Cassel has been able to do. That's not a knock on Cassel. He's done a fine job in an extremely tough spot. But it's impossible to follow a hall of famer.
When these two played in New York back in September, it was Cassel's first start, and Favre was still getting his feet wet with the Jets. Both offenses were at similar disadvantages and were limited. The game was fairly even statistically. Both teams had about 260 total yards which were evenly distributed among the pass and run. 60 yards in penalties for the Jets compared to 10 for the Pats hurt the Jets. Favre also had one key interception which the Pats converted to 7 points.
Big games like the one between these two Thursday Night always come down to one of two key mistakes in the end and in this case is likely to come down to the two men behind center, Favre and Cassel. Favre is one of the few guys in the sport that can win or lose games all by himself regardless of the supporting cast. We have seen that for close to two decades and the guy hasn't lost much. Remember, he's only 8 months removed from the NFC title game. He can hurt you as much as he can help you at times. He led the league in interceptions after week 10 which is not a category you want to top. But when push comes to shove, with everything on the line, who would you rather have on your side, Favre or Cassel?
The presence of Favres arm keeps defenses honest. With that long ball always a threat you can't cheat to stop the run. Cassel is much less of a threat. He's put in a position not to lose games with a ball control dink and dunk attack. The Jets defense ranks 5th in the NFL against the run allowing just 76 yards per game and are #2 in the NFL in sacks behind only the Steelers. With the Pats not likely to get the ball moving on the ground, it's going to fall on Cassel's arm.
The Jets on the other hand managed to average 5 yards per rush last time out against the Pats. Thomas Jones leads the AFC in rushing and again, with Favres arm strength keeping the defense honest, that is likely to continue Thursday Night. If the Jets are able to move the ball on the ground it will open up the passing game for Favre and once again, under those conditions, who would you rather have behind center, Favre or Cassel?
With the Jets ability to run the ball and stop the run, and with Favres ability to make big plays both down field and when he takes off and leaves the pocket the Jets would seem to have all the edges they need to spring the upset and take control of the AFC East in what amounts to the biggest game for this franchise in quite some time. Note that the Patriots have dominated this series in recent years having won 13 of 15. But there was one common denominator in those games......Tom Brady. The tide turns Thursday Night. We'll take the Jets. We are going to play half of our wager on the money line and half our wager at +3.5 -130.
So the Play is a 3* play which breaks down like this
1.5* Jets +140
1.5* Jets +3.5 -130
SPORTS ADVISORS
N.Y. Jets (6-3, 5-4 ATS) at New England (6-3, 5-4 ATS))
Brett Favre and the Jets go after their fourth straight win when they travel to Gillette Stadium to face the hated Patriots in a battle for first place in the AFC East.
New York drubbed St. Louis 47-3 on Sunday as a 9½-point home favorite for its third straight win (2-1 ATS). Favre (14 of 19, 167 yards, 1 TD) didn’t do much, but he didn’t have to, as the Rams turned the ball over five times which led to 27 points for the Jets, who built up a whopping 40-0 halftime lead.
RB Thomas Jones (26 carries, 149 yards, 3 TDs) led a rushing game that churned out 206 of New York’s 373 total yards. The Jets, who didn’t commit a turnover, allowed just 200 total yards and won the time of possession battle by 15 minutes (37:03-22:57).
New England topped Buffalo 20-10 as a 3½-point home chalk Sunday, cashing in back-to-back games for the first time this season. QB Matt Cassel (22 of 32, 234 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) lost a fumble for the Pats’ only turnover, but otherwise had a clean game as New England was never really threatened, finishing with 370 total yards while allowing a stifling 168 to Buffalo.
Against the Bills, unknown rookie RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (26 carries, 105 yards, 1 TD) helped the Patriots roll up 168 yards on the ground, and like New York against the Rams, New England finished with a 15-minute edge in time of possession.
New England is on a 9-1 SU run (7-2-1 ATS) in the last 10 clashes in this rivalry, including a 19-10 road victory as a one-point road chalk in September. The favorite is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 head-to-head battles, but the road team has gone 20-7-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings.
The Jets are on ATS runs of 5-2 on the highway, 5-1 in November, 4-1 against winning teams and 4-1 in the division. Meanwhile, the Patriots sport ATS streaks of 16-7 against winning teams and 35-16-1 in the AFC East, but they are on pointspread slides of 2-8 at home, 2-9 after a SU win and 1-6 after a spread-cover.
The under for New York is on stretches of 4-1-1 in roadies, 8-2-1 against AFC foes, 6-1-1 against winning teams and 5-1-1 inside the division. For New England, the under runs include 4-0-1 overall, 8-1-2 at home, 9-1-2 against the AFC and 4-1 in division play. Finally, four of the last five series meetings between these rivals at Gillette Stadium have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND and UNDER
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Buffalo (5-4, 6-3 ATS) at Akron (5-4, 6-3 ATS)
Buffalo heads to Ohio in search of its fourth straight victory when it takes on Akron in a Mid-American Conference contest, with both teams coming off weekday games.
The Bulls drilled Miami (Ohio) 37-17 on Nov. 4 as an 8½-point home chalk to earn its third consecutive SU win (2-1 ATS). Time of possession was nearly even in the contest, but Buffalo racked up 476 total yards – including 216 on the ground – while the Redhawks finished with 383 yards. The Bulls also won the turnover battle 2-0, recovering a pair of fumbles.
The Zips played a day later and dropped Toledo 47-30 as a 6½-point home favorite, winning and cashing for the second straight week. Akron gained 233 of its 458 total yards on the ground, with RB Dennis Kennedy going off for 154 yards and a score, and the Zips also blocked a punt for TD and ran back a botched Toledo extra point for two points.
Buffalo is on a 3-0 ATS run (1-2 SU) in this rivalry, rolling 26-10 last year at home as a one-point pup.
The Bulls are on ATS streaks of 6-0 on the highway, 5-0 after a SU win and 8-3 in conference tilts. The Zips are on an 8-3-1 ATS tear overall, but they are on a 4-10 pointspread skid coming off a SU victory.
The over has cashed in four straight games for both these teams. The over is also 4-1 in Buffalo’s last five conference games, and the over for Akron is on stretches of 6-0 in MAC play, 5-1 at home and 5-1 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Virginia Tech (6-3, 3-5 ATS) at Miami, Fla. (6-3, 5-3 ATS)
Miami looks to keep its winning surge going when it takes on Virginia Tech in an ACC clash at the Orange Bowl.
The Hurricanes, who had a bye last weekend, rallied past Virginia 24-17 in overtime on Nov. 1 as a one-point road pup for their fourth consecutive win (3-1 ATS). QB Jacory Harris (12 of 21, 160 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) rallied the ‘Canes by throwing a tying TD pass in the final minute of the fourth quarter, then hitting Aldarius Johnson with a 9-yard TD pass to open overtime. Miami lost the turnover battle 3-1 but it made that one turnover count, stripping the ball from Virginia tailback Cedrick Peerman on the Cavaliers’ first offensive play of overtime to end the game.
The Hokies beat Maryland 23-13 laying three points at home last Thursday, snapping a two-game SU skid and a three-game ATS nosedive. Virginia Tech racked up 400 total yards, including a whopping 273 on the ground behind RB Darren Evans (32 carries, 254 yards, 1 TD), and the Hokies allowed just 229 yards. That led to a 15-minute advantage in time of possession.
These teams feature two of the better defenses in the country, with Miami allowing 283.1 ypg (12th) and Va-Tech yielding 295.9 (19th).
Virginia Tech has won and cashed in the last two meetings between these schools and is on a 6-1 ATS run in the last seven contests. The Hokies are also 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes in Miami, and the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven matchups.
The Hurricanes are on ATS runs of 4-1 after a SU win and 5-2 against winning teams, but they are in pointspread ruts of 1-11 coming off a bye, 5-16-1 at home, 8-22 after a spread-cover and 7-15-1 in ACC contests. On the flip side, the Hokies sport positive ATS streaks of 19-7 on the highway, 25-9 inside the ACC, 10-1 in November and 13-4 on Thursdays.
For Miami, the under is on streaks of 26-9 at home, 8-2 on Thursday and 21-7 in November, and Va-Tech has stayed under the total in eight consecutive Thursday night outings. In addition, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VIRGINIA TECH and UNDER
Wyoming (4-6, 2-7 ATS) at UNLV (4-6, 6-4 ATS)
Wyoming, coming off one of the more stunning victories of this season, travels to Sin City for a Mountain West Conference affair with UNLV.
The Cowboys went into Knoxville and knocked off lame-duck coach Philip Fulmer and Tennessee 13-7 as an overwhelming 27-point road ‘dog. It was the second straight win and cover for the Pokes, and the SU winner has now cashed in eight straight lined games for Wyoming. The Cowboys outgained Tennessee 266-219 and got a 24-yard Ward Dobbs INT return for a second-quarter TD that proved to be the winning score.
The Rebels upset New Mexico 27-20 catching six points at home to halt a five-game SU slide (2-3 ATS). UNLV was outgained 370-258, but the Rebels got a TD off a blocked punt in the fourth quarter for their final score, and they also halted a second-quarter New Mexico drive with Quinton Porter’s 77-yard INT return, which set up a field goal.
Wyoming has won the last four games in this rivalry, including last year’s 29-24 victory at home, but the two teams have split the cash, with UNLV covering the past two years. In addition, the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven head-to-head clashes and the underdog is 4-2 ATS in the past six.
Despite getting its first two spread-covers of the season the last two weeks, the Cowboys are still on a bevy of pointspread declines, including 6-20-1 overall, 1-8 on the highway and 4-23-1 in MWC games. But they are on positive ATS runs of 4-1 in Thursday games and 23-9 following a spread-cover. The Rebels, meanwhile, are on ATS plunges of 1-4 in November, 5-15-1 after a SU win, 8-23 against losing teams and 7-20 after a spread-cover.
For Wyoming, the over is on stretches of 15-5 in November and 7-3 against losing teams, and the over for UNLV is on a 6-1 overall streak and is 4-1 in the Rebels’ last five home contests. Lastly, the total has gone high in each of the last 10 meetings between these schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Denver (4-3, 6-1 ATS) at Cleveland (6-2, 5-3 ATS)
LeBron James looks to continue his sensational play when he and the Cavaliers welcome Chauncey Billups and the new-look Nuggets to Quicken Loans Arena in a nationally televised non-conference battle.
James scored a game-high 41 points and added five rebounds and six assists in Tuesday’s 99-93 home victory over the Bucks, Cleveland’s fifth straight win. James has scored exactly 41 points in three of his last four games, but it wasn’t enough for the Cavaliers to cover a hefty 11-point spread on Tuesday, dropping them to 3-3 ATS in their last six contests (2-2 ATS as a favorite).
Denver has won and covered three straight games since Billups was inserted into the lineup following his trade from Detroit. On Tuesday, Billups had 16 points and five assists and Carmelo Anthony contributed a 25-point, six-rebound effort in an 88-80 win at Charlotte, with the Nuggets cashing as a three-point road chalk.
This rivalry has belonged to the Nuggets, who have won five straight meetings (4-1 ATS), the last four being double-digit blowouts. A season ago, Denver rolled the Cavaliers 122-100 as an eight-point home chalk, then went to Cleveland three months later and scored a 113-83 victory as a one-point road favorite. James played in both games and scored 57 total points.
Denver is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS on the highway this season, while the Cavs are 4-0 in their arena (2-2 ATS).
On the pointspread front, the Nuggets are on runs of 4-0 when facing the Eastern Conference, 4-0 on Thursday and 4-0 when playing on one day of rest (all this year). However, they’re 0-4 ATS in their last four against Central Division foes. Going back to last year, Cleveland is on ATS runs of 10-3 overall, 5-2 at home and 8-2 when playing on one day of rest, but the Cavs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight on Thursdays and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against the Western Conference.
The over is on runs of 4-0 for Cleveland overall, 7-0 for Cleveland after a SU victory, 9-2 for Denver against the Central Division and 6-2 for Denver on Thursdays. Conversely, the under is 11-4 in the Nuggets’ last 15 games overall, 17-7 in Cleveland’s last 24 at home, 37-18-1 in Cleveland’s last 56 on Thursday and 7-1 in Cleveland’s last eight against the Northwest Division.
Finally, four of the last five meetings between these teams at Quicken Loans Arena have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and UNDER
Carlo Campanella
Denver Nuggets at Cleveland Cavs
Denver (4-3) started the season slow, but has now won 3 straight games as they head to Cleveland on Thursday. While they´re playing solid basketball now, expect things to continue as Denver matches up well against this LeBron James led Cleveland (6-2) squad, owning a 4-0 SU & ATS record during the last four meetings, including BIG 30 and 22 point victories the last two games! Even with their series dominace, the Nuggets now get a generous amount of points in Cleveland on Thursday night and we´ll take them as we find Denver at 16-6 ATS against teams averaging 76 shots or less per game (Note: Cleveland averages 76 shots per game this year).
Play on: Denver
Vegas Experts
Virginia Tech at Miami (FL)
The decline of these two once proud programs is pretty much indicative of the mediocre play we've seen throughout the ACC all year long. That being said, Miami has won four straight games and is holding the opposition to just 287 yards per contest. Won't be enough tonight, however, against one of the best "Thursday" teams in the country. Not to mention, VA Tech has covered 10 of the previous 14 meetings between the schools and the favorite is just 4-9 ATS.
Play on: Virginia Tech
Dave Cokin
Buffalo @ Akron
Play: Buffalo +3'
Both Buffalo and Akron are 4-5 on the season, so it's a big game for both sides. But I believe the Bulls are the slightly superior team and in a game that figures close, getting that hook on the FG could be vital. Buffalo has the better defense, and they're also a perfect 4-0 vs. the number on the road this season. In fact, Buffalo is now 16-5 ATS in their last 21 away games. Akron has really gotten the offense revved up of late with four consecutive games scoring 30 or more points. But they've also been very generous defensively and I believe the Buffalo edge on that side of the ball will be the determining factor here. I'll go for the road dog.
John Ryan
Buffalo at Akron
Prediction: Buffalo
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Buffalo ? AiS shows a 73% probability that Buffalo will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 52% probability of winning the game. Buffalo is in a solid position for an ATS win noting they are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons. Akron is not in a strong role to defend their home turf noting they are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. HC Gill is in a series of strong roles as well that reinforce the Ai S grading. Note that Gill is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins; 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) as a road underdog. This game has implications as it will break a first place tie in conference play. Buffalo has the edge though as they rank first in the MAC and 9th nationally with a +10 turnover margin. They take exceptional care of the ball on offense having just 9 turnovers ranking 5th nationally. Based on the published reports there is NO doubt that they are strongly focused for this game with a simple goal of consistency in execution on every play. Take Buffalo
Jimmy The Moose
Los Angeles Kings at Dallas Stars
Prediction: Los Angeles Kings
The Kings are playing a lot better of late winning their last 3 in a row. The Kings have won 7 of their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record. Dallas comes into this one having lost 4 of their last 5 games. The Stars have lost their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record. Dalls is 1-5 in their last 6 games played with 1 day rest between action. The Stars have dominated this series in the past but LA is getting better and have won 3 of the last 4 meetings. Play on the Los Angeles Kings +.
Ben Burns
Montreal Canadiens at Boston Bruins
Prediction: Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens love beating up on Boston and they've got the schedule in their favor tonight. While Montreal had last night off, the Bruins played a hard-fought game at Chicago, which saw them eventually win in a shootout. Some teams actually play pretty well when playing the second of back to back games. The Bruins typically aren't one of them. They lost at Buffalo in their only previous back to back situation this season and are just 3-10 when playing the second of back to back games, dating back to last November. The Canadiens, who are coming off a convincing 4-0 victory vs. Ottawa, have already beaten the Bruins once this season and are 16-3 the last 19 games in the series. That includes a perfect 12-0 mark in regular season games. Consider Montreal.
Cajun Sports
Denver Nuggets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play:Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers play host to the Denver Nuggets on Thursday evening at Quicken Loans Arena.
Cleveland has been playing well at home going 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS. Cleveland is averaging 103.2 points per game on 48.5% shooting in those four home contests. On the defensive end of the floor they have been solid as well allowing 93.0 points per game on 40.1% shooting.
The 10 point differential between what the Cavaliers score and what they allow triggers a negative team angle for the Nuggets which tell us they are 4-13 ATS when facing a team on the road that outscores their opponents by 3 or more points per game. If their opponent outscores their foe by 6 or more points per game their record falls to 2-11 ATS.
Denver is still trying to adjust to having Chauncey Billups in the lineup and that could take a few weeks or maybe more to find their rhythm. This Nuggets team is allowing opponents to score almost 100 points per game when on the road and this is not a good sign when facing the Cavaliers at home.
On the technical front we see that the Cavaliers are 150-124-9 ATS as a favorite, 56-36-2 ATS after losing SU in their last game, 16-5-1 ATS after losing SU and the current line range is 4-5.5 points and the Cavs are 20-10-1 ATS after playing at home with the same line range.
Denver on the other hand is 8-23 ATS after going “Under” the posted total in their last two games, 142-172-3 ATS as a road underdog, 35-63 ATS in road games after having won 3 of their last 4 games since 1996, 46-75 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and 42-64 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins.
Our Team Performance Ratings Index has Cleveland with an 8.7 point advantage over the Nuggets in tonight’s contest. We also see that the Player Performance Ratings Index has the Cavs with a 7.4 point edge over the Denver Nuggets. Finally we have Cleveland active in a statistical indicator that is 117-68 ATS.
We are backing the host here as Cleveland gets the win and cover over the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night.
GRADED PREDICTION: 2* Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5
Pointwise
NEW YORK JETS over New England RATING: 3
THURSDAY
New York Jets 20 - NEW ENGLAND 19 - (8:15 - NFL) -- Why not? The Jets
have the revenge factor in their corner, with just a 4-yd deficit in first meeting. A week ago, NY scored on its 1st 8 drives, vs hapless Rams. Led 40-0 at the half. Check Jets run "D" at 55 ypg last 2 outings. Pats in off dominating Bills (24-10 FD, 37:40-22:20 time, 370-168 yd edges), but has yet to follow SU/ATS win with a cover. The division visitor in Jet games is on 6-0 & 14-3 ATS runs, with series visitor an amazing 17-2 ATS. And NY is 8-0 vs a division foe off a DD SU victory.
THURSDAY CFB
Buffalo 31 - AKRON 27 - (7:00 - ESPNU) -- Little to choose, as both balanced, behind quality QBs & RBs. Bulls: Willy (17/4) & Starks (177 RYs LW); Zips: Jacquemain (3 TDs vs Toledo) & Kennedy (905 RY TY). Akron at 259 RYpg last 3 tilts, but visitor is 7-0 ATS in Buffalo games & 7-2-1 ATS in Akron games.
MIAMI-FLORIDA 24 - Virginia Tech 23 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Hokies rolled easily LY (Wise Points), but not that easy this time around. A 197-78 RY edge for 'Canes in OT win over VA (Cooper: 131 yds), & own #14 "D". Tech a 285 RY edge vs MD (Evans: 254 yds), with returning Glennon a pleasant 14-of-20. To the wire.
UNLV 30 - Wyoming 24- (9:00 - CBSC) -- 'Pokes have come from double digit spread losses in each of their first 7 games, to 19½ & 32 pt covers the past 2 wks (Moore: 372 RYs last 2). And check allowing only 88 RYpg last 4. Rebs in off snapping 5-game slide, despite 232-55 RY deficit. Series pup yaps again.
THE GOLD SHEET
N.Y. JETS by 7 over New England (Thursday, Nov. 13)
*New York Jets 20 - NEW ENGLAND 13—Brett Favre wasn’t able to
alter the dynamics of this incestuous rivalry when teams first met in Week Two in N.Y., but that was just his second start for Jets. With Favre more familiar with new offense and Thomas Jones (149 YR last week vs. Rams) running up a storm, Jets capable of extending series visitor dominance (road team has covered last 6 reg.-season meetings). Stout N.Y. defense (just 3.1 ypc; 31 sacks) should force Matt Cassel to be more of a playmaker than Bill Belichick would prefer. (08-Ne. 19-NYJ 10...Ne.18-12 Ny.21/104 Ne.33/104 Ne.16/23/0/156 Ny.18/26/1/152 Ne.0 Ny.0) (07-Ne. 38-JETS 14...Ne.28-17 Ne.37/134 Ny.19/60 Ne.22/28/0/297 Ny.21/31/0/167 Ne.0 Ny.0) (07-NE. 20-Jets 10...Ne.16-13 Ne.35/131 Ny.17/90 Ny.25/40/1/146 Ne.14/27/1/134 Ne.0 Ny.1) (08-N. Eng. +1 19-10; 07-N. Eng. -6' 38-14, NEW ENG. -21 20-10...SR: New England 49-48-1)
*Buffalo 34 - AKRON 24—Buffalo has won three straight, with recent play of RB James Starks (362 YR, 4 TDs last 2 games) and QB Drew Willy (66%, 5 TDP, 0 ints. last 3) leading the way. Meanwhile, Akron defense ranks 103 in pass efficiency “D” and vs. the run, and has allowed 34 ppg in MAC play. Zip QB Jacquemain & RB Kennedy have been productive, but Turner Gill and the Bull defense have a better chance of slowing them than Akron defense vs. Starks & Willy. CABLE TV—ESPNU (07-BUF. 26-Akron 10...A.21-18 B.51/155 A.39/142 A.19/39/2/185 B.11/14/0/125 B.0 A.1)
(07-BUFFALO -1 26-10 06-AKRON -17 31-16 05-Akron -10 13-7...SR: Akron 8-1)
*Virginia Tech 23 - MIAMI-FLORIDA 21—Tech hopes a future star was born last Thursday when RS frosh RB Darren Evans (61 TDs as high school senior!) blistered Maryland for school-record 253 YR. With sr. QB Glennon healthy, wily old Hokie HC Beamer (17-5 vs. spread last 22 as visitor) probably has enough offensive balance to slug out victory over still-learning Miami counterpart Shannon and his jelling Hurricanes. Very little home-field edge for youthful host in first season at far-from-campus Dolphin Stadium. CABLE TV—ESPN (07-VA. TECH 44-Miami 14...V.22-13 V.43/182 M.29/M2 M.21/36/1/215 V.14/26/0/176 V.0 M.2) (07-TECH -16' 44-14 06-Tech -2 17-10 05-Miami +6' 27-7...SR: Miami-Florida 16-9)
*UNLV 24 - Wyoming 22—Believe it or not, there are bowl implications
involved here, as winner can become postseason-eligible with wins this week and next! Not sure, however, we want to lay anything meaningful with UNLV bunch that still has defensive issues and has been forced to turn to talented (but green) RS frosh QB Clausen. Wyo still competing for under-fire Joe Glenn, and RS frosh QB Stutzriem effectively piloting low-risk Cowboy “O” that’s content to feed ball to RBs Moore & Seldon.
(07-WYO. 29-Unlv 24...U.23-20 W.46/208 U.41/43 U.21/39/2/223 W.13/33/2/156 W.0 U.0) (07-WYO. -11 29-24 06-Wyo. -9' 34-26 05-WYO. -18 42-17...SR: EVEN 8-8)
TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK
NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND (Thursday, November 13)...Note that the road team has covered the last 6 regular-season meetings between these two. Belichick also “under” 8-2-1 last 11 on board.Tech edge-slight to Jets and “under”, based on series and “totals” trends.
BUFFALO at AKRON (Thursday, November 13)...Buffalo has covered last 3 meetings, although only LY did Bulls win SU. Turner Gill 4-0 vs. line away TY and 14-5 vs. spread last 19 as visitor. Tech edge-Buffalo, based on team trends.
VIRGINIA TECH at MIAMI-FLORIDA (Thursday, November 13)...Hokies have had series edge, winning and covering last 2 and 4 of last 5 meetings, also 6-1 vs. line last 7 and 8 covers last 10 against Canes. Hokies 17-5 against number as visitor since ‘04. Tech edge-VT, based on team and series trends.
WYOMING at UNLV (Thursday, November 13)...Wyo has won last 4 in series but failed to cover last two. Cowboys have now won and covered their last 2 after 0-15-1 previous 16 on board. Rebs 5-15 vs. line last 20 as chalk (2-7 for Mike Sanford since ‘05; 1-2 TY). Tech edge-Wyo, based on series trends.
JIM FEIST
DETROIT PISTONS / GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Take Over
The Pistons' added an offensive sparkplug in Allen Iverson to an already stacked offensive team. The guy has the third-highest scoring average in NBA history behind Wilt Chamberlain and Michael Jordan. They are loaded with balance and star power with 7-foot Rasheed Wallace, Iverson, 6-7 Richard Hamilton, Amir Johnson and 6-8 Tayshaun Prince. Iverson scored 30 points to help the Pistons to a 100-92 victory at Sacramento. The Warriors are weak defensively, allowing 46% shooting, 22nd in the NBA, and 105 ppg (5th worst). Have to look for an offensive show. Play the Pistons/Warriors over the total.
Vegas Sports Informer
Take ‘Under’ 47.0 Wyoming at UNLV
Both of these teams are coming off stunning upsets last week. The Cowboys came out of nowhere to beat Tennessee while UNLV scored a home win over New Mexico. Wyoming has played ‘under’ in back-to-back games and I expect the UNLV offense to have a little hangover from last week’s showing. The last seven times these two have met it’s gone ‘over’, but I think the short week after an upset will help keep this one sloppy and low scoring. The ‘under’ is 10-4 after a win by the Runnin’ Rebels.
Karl Garrett
NY Jets at NEW ENGLAND
Last Thursday's Denver-Cleveland contest, the 1st of the fall season on the NFL Network also eclipsed the posted price last week, and the G-Man sees little reason to doubt that tonight's game between the Jets and Pats won't go OVER as well.
These teams did play UNDER the total in their first meeting back on Week 2 of the season, but it is hard to argue with the numbers the Jets have been putting up lately, as New York's last 3 games have all sailed OVER the posted total.
The G-Man realizes the Patriots are on an 8-2-1 UNDER clip their last 11 games, but tonight is the night I feel they turn Matt Cassel loose just a little, and we see the points pile up at Gilette Stadium.
G-Man backing the OVER in tonight's Jets-Patriots contest.
1♦ OVER
Bobby Maxwell
Denver at CLEVELAND -5'
The Cavs have been playing some good basketball lately and it all stems from the way LeBron James is playing right now, some of the best ball of his career.
James put in 41 points and added five rebounds and six assists as they got a home win over the Bucks on Tuesday, winning 99-93, but they failed as 11-point home favorites. The Cavaliers have won five straight games and James has scored 41 points in three of the last four. He's one of the two unstoppable forces in the NBA, with the other being Kobe, and he can do whatever he wants on the court.
If LeBron wants to get to the rim, he will. And if he's hitting his outside shot there's really nothing a defender can do. And he always makes his teammates better as he can always dish off the double-team.
Denver has won and covered three straight since the acquisition of Chauncey Billups. He had 16 points and five assists in an 88-80 win at Charlotte on Tuesday as the Nuggets cashed in as three-point road favorites. He'll make Denver better but they've still got some problems on the defensive end.
Cleveland has got some revenge on mind in this one as Denver just dominated them a season ago, winning by 22 points in the first game in Denver and then getting a 20-point win in Cleveland as a one-point road favorite. Don't think the Cavs have forgotten about those two. They are on ATS runs of 10-3 overall, 5-2 at home and 8-2 when they get a day off. Play the Cavaliers in tonight's matchup.
3♦ CLEVELAND