Dunkel
NBA
San Antonio at Denver
The Spurs look to bounce back from their loss to Detroit (89-77) and build on their 4-2 ATS record after scoring 85 points or less. San Antonio is the underdog pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Nuggets favored by just 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+4 1/2).
Game 701-702: Dallas at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 122.608; Phoenix 121.112
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 703-704: San Antonio at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 119.976; Denver 123.468
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 3 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 4 1/2; 191
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+4 1/2); Over
NCAAB
UCLA at Texas
The Longhorns look to take advantage of a UCLA team that is just 2-9 ATS against the Big 12 since 1997. Texas is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Longhorns favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Texas (-5 1/2).
Game 705-706: Valparaiso at Youngstown State
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 59.535; Youngstown State 51.492
Dunkel Line: Valparaiso by 8
Vegas Line: Valparaiso by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Valparaiso (-1 1/2)
Game 707-708: Connecticut at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 73.298; Buffalo 58.016
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 15
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-14 1/2)
Game 709-710: USC at Oklahoma
Dunkel Ratings: USC 65.056; Oklahoma 74.999
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 10
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 8
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-8)
Game 711-712: St. Mary's (CA) at Kent State
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's (CA) 62.274; Kent State 66.741
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 3
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (+3)
Game 713-714: Western Michigan at VA Commonwealth
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 55.859; VA Commonwealth 61.508
Dunkel Line: VA Commonwealth by 6
Vegas Line: VA Commonwealth by 12
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (+12)
Game 715-716: Butler at Cleveland State
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 68.973; Cleveland State 64.154
Dunkel Line: Butler by 5
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Butler (+3 1/2)
Game 717-718: Wright State at WI-Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Wright State 50.584; WI-Green Bay 62.733
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 12
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (-9 1/2)
Game 719-720: Detroit at WI-Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 50.092; WI-Milwaukee 53.138
Dunkel Line: WI-Milwaukee by 3
Vegas Line: WI-Milwaukee by 5
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+5)
Game 721-722: UCLA at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 71.522; Texas 79.606
Dunkel Line: Texas by 8
Vegas Line: Texas by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-5 1/2)
Game 723-724: Oklahoma State at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 66.722; Washington 66.283
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Washington by 5
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (+5)
Game 725-726: College of Charleston at Elon
Dunkel Ratings: College of Charleston 53.994; Elon 53.547
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: College of Charleston by 5
Dunkel Pick: Elon (+5)
Game 727-728: The Citadel at NC Greensboro
Dunkel Ratings: The Citadel 40.439; NC Greensboro 53.817
Dunkel Line: NC Greensboro by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: NC Greensboro by 8
Dunkel Pick: NC Greensboro (-8)
Game 729-730: Murray State at Eastern Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 53.455; Eastern Kentucky 50.817
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Murray State
Game 731-732: Tennessee Martin at Morehead State
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee Martin 46.816; Morehead State 49.934
Dunkel Line: Morehead State by 3
Vegas Line: Tennessee Martin by 1
Dunkel Pick: Morehead State (+1)
Game 733-734: Austin Peay at SE Missouri State
Dunkel Ratings: Austin Peay 49.275; SE Missouri State 45.076
Dunkel Line: Austin Peay by 4
Vegas Line: Austin Peay by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SE Missouri State (+5 1/2)
Game 735-736: Tennessee State at Eastern Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 50.720; Eastern Illinois 49.761
Dunkel Line: Tennessee State by 1
Vegas Line: Eastern Illinois by 4
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee State (+4)
Game 737-738: Denver at Montana
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 46.425; Montana 49.934
Dunkel Line: Montana by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Montana by 9
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+9)
NHL
NY Rangers at Montreal
The Rangers come into the contest having won four of their last five and six of their last eight against the Canadiens. New York is the underdog pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored straight up by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+135).
Game 51-52: New Jersey at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 10.460; Philadelphia 11.849
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-140); Over
Game 53-54: NY Rangers at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.811; Montreal 11.285
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+135); Under
Game 55-56: NY Islanders at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 10.862; NY Islanders 11.009
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 57-58: Pittsburgh at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.777; Carolina 10.743
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Under
Game 59-60: Boston at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.818; Tampa Bay 11.157
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-150); Over
Game 61-62: Buffalo at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 10.881; Buffalo 11.229
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-120); Under
Game 63-64: Vancouver at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.672; Detroit 12.689
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 65-66: Colorado at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 10.434; Nashville 12.038
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-140); Over
Game 67-68: Toronto at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 12.472; Phoenix 11.283
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+125); Over
Game 69-70: Columbus at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.499; San Jose 14.224
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 3; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-300); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-300); Under
NCAAF
Louisville at Rutgers
Needing a win to become bowl eligible, the Cardinals look to take advantage of Rutgers' 0-3 ATS mark this season as a favorite between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Louisville is the underdog pick (+10) according to Dunkel, which has Rutgers favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Louisville (+10).
Game 105-106: Louisville at Rutgers
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 84.967; Rutgers 94.145
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 9; 56
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 10; 51
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (+10); Over
NFL
Oakland at San Diego
The disappointing Chargers look to take out some frustration on an Oakland team that is just 2-8 ATS in December games over the last three seasons. San Diego is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Chargers favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-8 1/2).
Game 103-104: Oakland at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 123.754; San Diego 136.281
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 12 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: San Diego by 8 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-8 1/2); Over
Vernon Croy
Buffalo Sabres vs. Florida Panthers
Play: Buffalo
The Sabres powerplay has been solid on the road this season converting at 20.4% while they have also been very efficient on the penalty kill with opponents converting just 13% against them with the extra man and just 9.5% over their last 5 games. The Sabres have owned the Panthers in the past with a 5-1 record against them over their last 6 meetings and the Sabres are 36-16 in their last 52 games when playing with 2 days rest. The Sabres are 10-3 in their last 13 games after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game while the Panthers are just 1-8 in their last 9 games against an opponent that allowed 2 goals or less in their previous game. Take Buffalo.
Vegas Experts
San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets
Look for the Spurs to put an end to their two-game losing skid as we find them at 39-22 ATS immediately following an upset loss (were favored) by 10 points or more. Look for an inspired performance tonight after Tuesday's loss to the Pistons, which Tony Parker called "one of our worst games of the season." Denver, meanwhile, is due for a letdown following a franchise best 13-6 start and an outright loss here would not surprise us.
Play on: San Antonio
Tom Freese
Columbus Blue Jackets at San Jose Sharks
Prediction: Over
San Jose is 8-2 OVER after allowing two or less goals in their last game and they are 7-3 OVER their last 10 games overall. The Sharks are 4-1 OVER their last 5 home games and they are 4-0-1 OVER on Thursday. Columbus is 5-1 OVER when playing with two days of rest and they are 6-2-2 OVER vs. an opponent that scored 5 or more goals in their last game. The Blue Jackets are 4-1 OVER vs. a team with a wiinning percentage of over 60%. PLAY ON 'OVER'
Nellys Greensheet
RUTGERS (-11½) Louisville
The home team has won and covered each of the past three years of this series, although Rutgers has always been the underdog until this season. After an awful start to the season the Scarlet Knights have now won five consecutive games, while Louisville has now dropped four in a row S/U and ATS. Louisville should have a rushing edge in this match-up as the Cardinals have been much more productive on the ground this season and also feature strong numbers against the run but Rutgers should have success in the air.Rutgers is allowing just 18 points per game and this is a team that has a great deal of momentum behind a veteran squad closing out the season. Louisville can reach 6-6 with a win but the Cardinals may be emotionally spent after playing the top three teams in the Big East the last three games. Last season Rutgers led by 18 in the second half against Louisville but lost by three so this will be a key game for the coaching staff and the Knights will enter the postseason as a dangerous bowl team. RUTGERS BY 17
SAN DIEGO (-10) Oakland (43½)
The Chargers have now lost five of the past six games with only a onepoint win over Kansas City mixed in. In fairness the Chargers have played close against quality teams in that span and have not lost by double-digits in any game all season. San Diego has not been able to close out games with several leads being taken away in the closing minutes. The Chargers have covered in ten of the last eleven against Oakland however and the Raiders offense has really struggled to consistently score points. CHARGERS BY 13
Pointwise Football
POINTWISE 2* (3-3)...
College Key Selections
2* RUTGERS over Louisville 41-14
RUTGERS 41 - Louisville 14 - Five straight wins for Knights,who are +68 pts ATS over that span, with a 181-70 pt edge, & Teel at 13 TDs in last 4. Four straight losses for faltering Cards (14 TOs), losing their last RG by 28 pts ATS. Carpenter just 15/15 for the season. Revenge for LY's heartbreak.
SAN DIEGO 23 - Oakland 20 - Chargers 3 back of Broncos, with 4 to play, so just about done. In off putrid home performance vs Falcons, in which they managed only 201 yds, & 13 FDs. Now under 100 RYs in 6 of last 8 outings,with 9 of their games decided by a TD or less. Third straight HG, but it means little, especially in light of the fact that the visitor has covered the last 5 games involving the Raiders, by 70½ pts ATS. And note Oakland covering its last RG by 30 pts. We know that Chargers are 10-1 ATS vs the Raiders, but call for change
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
RUTGERS over Louisville by 16
Did anyone catch that freight train tearing threw Piscataway? It’s Greg Schiano’s Scarlet Knights and they’re taking no prisoners during an impressive 5-game winning streak. They have also covered 6 of 7 and show no signs of slowing down this week, boasting a healthy 5-1 ATS mark in their Last Home Game when playing with revenge. Schiano’s crew is also 7-0 against the number with revenge versus a sub .500 foe. And thanks to Louisville’s 4-game losing skid that’s seen its defense shredded for 132 points, that’s exactly where Kragthorpe’s Redbirds reside – under the water level. The visitors desperately need a win to become bowl eligible but, at 6-6, that may not even be enough to guarantee an invitation. With the series visitor 0-3 SU and ATS recently, we’ll be jumping on the bandwagon…err, freight train,known as Rutgers. All aboard
SAN DIEGO over Oakland by 8
Go fi gure. The Chargers beat the Raiders in Oakland, 28-18, as 8.5-point favorites and come back home in the rematch at a price in the same neighborhood! That’s how bad things are going for Norv Turner’s troops these days. In fact, San Diego will need to win each of their fi nal four games to avoid its fi rst losing season since 2001. We’d love to sink our teeth into these underachievers but experience has taught us different. When a team is going bad you NEVER want to lay double-digits with them. They tried it when hosting the Chiefs a month ago and barely escaped with a 1-point win.Sure, San Diego has dominated this series (10-1 ATS last eleven games) but the Raiders counter with a 9-0 ATS mark as division dogs with revenge off a division game when playing an opponent off a SU and ATS loss. Oakland’s overland game – they gain 4.3 Yards Per Rush; Diego allows 4.0 Yards Per Rush – becomes the edge in tonight’s affair. Turner drops to 12-26 ATS in his NFL career as a division host.
NORTHCOAST
Louisville at RUTGERS - This is a battle between 2 teams moving in different directions with Rutgers proving to be one of the hottest teams in the BE (42 ppg L/4) vs a UL team that has dumped the last 4.The home team is 3-0 SU/ATS in their Big East meetings with both games decided by 3 pts the last 2 years and a 56-5 home blowout win by the Cards in ‘05. LY Rutgers led 35-17 on the road but Louisville rallied for a 41-38 win with a FG with :33 left. In 2006 here Louisville led by 18 in the 3Q and blew the lead the week after beating W Virg at home. Rutgers has the edges on offense (#36-52), defense (#36-79) and the home field advantage. UL is avg 175 rush ypg (4.5) and now faces a RU def all’g 147 ypg (3.9). Louisville is on an 0-4 SU & ATS run being outscored by 16 ppg while Rutgers has covered the last 8 (6-2 SU) by 13 ppg. Both teams are off a bye and should be well prepared. Rutgers looks to climb the bowl ladder and after a disappointing season UL needs the win to get to .500 and bowl eligibility.
Oakland at SAN DIEGO - Thursday. SD beat OAK 28-18 as a 7.5 pt AF in for their only road win so far in 2008. OAK had a 15-0 lead at the half but SD scored 18 unanswered points to take the lead. OAK hit a 32 yd FG to tie with 2:47 left but SD hit a 47 yd FG & Tomlinson’s 41 yd TD run (longest run TY) sealed the cover with 1:04 left. SD has to deal with the fact they are basically out of the playoffs on Dec 1st. OAK dropped their game to KC LW but they have already gone on the road & knocked off division rivals KC & DEN. While OAK is usually a horrible Dec team they actually have something to play for in adding to SD’s pain. Turner however needs a big win to start earning his players faith for the 2009 season.
THE GOLDSHEET
*RUTGERS 41 - Louisville 21—Schedule-maker the only one able to cool off resurgent Rutgers recently, as streaking Scarlet Knights had won 5 straight (and covered 7 in a row) prior to last week’s open date. Still, even with Louisville fighting for its post-season life, expect host to pick up where it left off. Final home game for zoned-in senior QB Mike Teel (68% for 1290 yards & 13 TDP in last 4 games!), while NFL-caliber 6-4 jr. WR Kenny Britt, who’s snagged 57 passes for 929 yards since serving one-game suspension at end of September,is a nightmare matchup for depleted Cardinal secondary. And, with Rutgers defense unleashing myriad blitzes on limping Louisville sr. QB Hunter Cantwell,no surprise if fading visitor continues to self-destruct (Cards have coughed up 14 turnovers while dropping their last 4 games both straight-up & vs. spread).
(07-LVL. 41-Rutgers 38...R.25-21 L.45/240 R.37/153 R.21/32/0/265 L.12/22/0/237 L.1 R.0)
(07-LVL. -2' 41-38 06-RUT. +6' 28-25 05-LVL. -21' 56-5...SR: Rutgers 5-2)
*SAN DIEGO 24 - Oakland 17—S.D. has dominated the series recently,winning & covering the last 3, and covering 10 of the last 11. Can the Chargers extend that domination in a disappointing season in which they seem bent on playing just about everyone to the wire? Note that 3 of their 4 wins, however,have been decided by double figures. But the S.D. defense is way down, and LaDainian Tomlinson (only 3.7 ypc) misses old FB Lorenzo Neal, while the slightly improving Raiders are 4-2 vs. spread on the road.
(08-S. Diego 28-OAK. 18...S.18-15 S.30/141 O.23/72 O.22/37/1/251 S.14/25/2/154 S.0 O.1)
(07-S. DIEGO 28-Oak. 14...18-18 S.32/206 O.23/49 O.24/37/2/193 S.14/21/1/156 S.0 O.1)
(07-S. Diego 30-OAK. 17...O.17-15 O.29/122 S.33/120 O.23/31/1/194 S.15/27/0/133 S.1 O.3)
(08-San Diego -8 28-18; 07-SAN DIEGO -9' 28-14, San Diego -8' 30-17...SR: Oakland 55-41-2)
Erik Scheponik
Raiders (+10) over @Chargers
The lines in San Diego’s games keep getting pushed higher and higher (or lower when they’ve been an underdog), due to their correctly perceived need to win. However, they simply keep losing and now they need much more than a win… they need a miracle. They now sit three games behind Denver with only four left to play. It’s obvious they are pressing, but it is even more obvious that this is simply not the same team that we saw in last season’s playoffs. Their only win in their last 6 games is by a single point at home off of a bye week against a Kansas City team that has two wins and six double digit losses on the season! I’m really not sure how that adds up to the Chargers laying double digits against anyone, let alone an Oakland team who just two weeks ago went into Denver and blew out the division-leading Broncos by 3 TDs! The Raiders are no great shakes, but they are better than the Lions and Bengals of the league, and at least they are trying. San Diego is a mentally and emotionally defeated team right now as high expectations, the loss of Shawne Merriman, and close loss after close loss has simply taken the spirit right out of them. LaDainian Tomlinson is obviously injured and not the same back we are used to seeing, and they are not playing physical on either side of the ball. This is not the first time that a Norv Turner-coached team has underachieved, ya know.Oakland has some decent young talent on both sides of the ball, and they haven’t given up more than 20 points in their last 4 games, all of which came against respectable offensive clubs Carolina,Miami, Denver and Kansas City. I expect them to play with more verve here than the Chargers, as they led Diego for 3 quarters in the 1st meeting, and were tied with 2 and change left before blowing it late. Their special teams are also playing very well with ace returner Johnnie Lee Higgins housing a couple of punts the last couple of weeks and Sebastian Janokowski booting field goals from all over the place. Double-digit road dogs in this league now stand 17-5 ATS, and the Chargers may really fall apart here if things don’t go their way early. San Diego by only 3.
STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET
LOUISVILLE at RUTGERS
This should be the last game of the season in all likelihood for Louisville. The Cardinals once seemed destined for a bowl berth this season but four SU & ATS losses in a row have doomed the campaign. During that stretch, they have turned the ball over 14 times and have scored just 17.3 PPG. On the other sideline, Rutgers has taken the latter part of the season as an opportunity to get things turned around. The Knights have won five straight games, including upset routs of Pittsburgh and South Florida. They have poured in 42 PPG over their last four games. At this point in the year, there just seems to be too much momentum and confidence on the side of the hosts, while the visitors may have already packed it in. Lay the points.Play: Rutgers -12
OAKLAND at SAN DIEGO
Several things have to be in place when deciding whether or not to back a double-digit favorite in the NFL, particularly this season where DD dogs have enjoyed so much success against the number. The first thing is a clear talent differential. In this case, San Diego was supposed to have that talent edge, but to me, it’s painfully obvious that this team has been overrated all season long. Injury woes have hurt, but the bigger problem has been that this team can’t run the ball anymore. Strangely, they are almost one-dimensional. Because of it, they are in a fade system this week vs. Oakland: Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN DIEGO)- average rushing team (3.5 to 4.5 YPR) against a team with a poor rushing defense (>=4.5 YPR), after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. (47-21 since 1983.) (69.1%,+23.9 units. Rating = 2*). The other factor a 10-point favorite must possess is motivation. At 4-8, where is this mojo supposed to come from? The Chargers have also scored just 16.5 PPG over their L4. This simply isn’t a team that should be favored by so much.Play: Oakland +10.5
Wunderdog
Buffalo at Florida
Pick: Florida +105
Buffalo opened the season strong, but there has been nothing strong about their recent play. The Sabres are just 3-9 in their last 12 games, and that includes four straight road losses. On the road, they have been outscored 18-9, or a 2-1 ratio - huge in hockey. The Panthers are arguably playing their best hockey of the season right now as they have tied their season long winning streak at two games and have taken three out of their last five games, with the other two decided by OT and a shootout. The difference has been Craig Anderson behind the net. The Panthers have five wins with him between the pipes in nine starts, while they have been just 5-10 behind Vokoun. I like the Panthers as a live home dog here.
HQ REPORT
WESTERN MICHIGA v VA COMMONWEALTH Over 132
BUTLER v CLEVELAND ST Over 117-120 (B+½)
OKLAHOMA ST v WASHINGTON U Under 162
TENNESSEE ST +4
Gregg Price
Murray State vs. Eastern Kentucky
Play: Eastern Kentucky -1.5
E. Kentucky - This team has swept Murray st the last 2 years and both teams are off to good starts this year. E. Kent has a senior named Mike Rose who is averaging 20 a game, while Murray st's top scorer is only averaging 12 a game. E. Kentucky gets the job done at home.
Nostradamus
Louisiville +10.5
Kent +2
NC Greensboro -7.5
Eastern Kentucky -2
Butler +3
Buffalo -120
Columbus +1.5 -120