SPORTS ADVISORS
New Orleans (7-6, 9-4 ATS) at Chicago (7-6, 6-6-1 ATS)
The surging Saints travel to Soldier Field for the third time in 13 months to face the Bears, with both teams trying to stay alive in the NFC playoff chase.
New Orleans topped Atlanta 29-25 as a three-point home chalk Sunday for their fourth straight spread-cover (3-1 SU). QB Drew Brees (18 of 32, 230 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) led a turnover-free offense and got some rare help from his running game, which churned out 184 yards. RBs Pierre Thomas (16 carries, 102 yards, 1 TD) and Reggie Bush (10 carries, 80 yards) led the way, and both teams put up 414 total yards.
Chicago beat Jacksonville 23-10 as a 6½-point home favorite Sunday, stemming a 1-3 SU and 1-4 ATS skid. QB Kyle Orton (20 of 34, 219 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) helped the Bears to a 20-3 halftime lead, and his INT served as Chicago’s lone turnover. Meanwhile, the Bears defense converted picked off the Jaguars’ on their first drive and the offense turned it into an Orton-to-Desmond Clark TD pass.
The SU winner is now 24-2-1 ATS in the Bears’ last 27 starts (11-1-1 ATS this season).
Chicago has defeated New Orleans three straight times (2-0-1 ATS), including a 33-25 victory as a one-point home underdog in last year’s regular-season finale and a 39-14 win as a 2½-point home in the NFC Championship Game in January 2007. The underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight clashes.
New Orleans features the NFL’s top offense, averaging 405.9 ypg, and the Saints are tied for second in scoring at 366 points (28.2 ppg). Chicago is 24th in total offense (304 per game) and 16th scoring offense (23.4 ppg). Both defenses tend to give up yards and points, with New Orleans allowing 25.1 points and 344.1 yards per game, and the Bears yielding 21.4 points and 325.4 ypg.
The Saints are on ATS surges of 6-2 in non-division games and 4-1 on grass, but they also carry negative ATS trends of 0-5 as a road pup of three points or less and 2-5 following a SU win. The Bears have cashed in their last four December contests but are otherwise on ATS declines of 0-4 after a SU win, 4-9 as a home chalk, 4-9-1 after a spread-cover and 4-9-1 against winning teams.
The over for New Orleans is on several hot streaks, including 13-4-1 overall, 7-0 in December, 10-2 after a SU win, 10-2-1 after a spread-cover and 19-7-1 against NFC foes. Likewise, the over for Chicago is on stretches of 19-7 at home, 16-5 with the Bears a home favorite and 27-11-1 inside the conference. Finally, the over is 5-1 in the last six clashes overall between these rivals and 4-0 in the last four meetings at Solider Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Portland (15-8, 11-12 ATS) at Utah (14-9, 12-11 ATS)
The Trail Blazers, just one game removed from an Eastern Conference road trip on which they went 4-1 SU, hit the highway again to take on the Jazz in a key Northwest Division matchup at EnergySolutions Arena.
Portland was on the wrong end of a heartbreaking 109-108 decision against the Magic on Tuesday night, losing on a last-second, bank-shot 3-pointer from the Magic’s Hedo Turkoglu to fall as a five-point chalk. Guard Brandon Roy (30 points, nine rebounds, five assists) and forward LaMarcus Aldridge (25 points, 13 rebounds) paced six Blazers who scored in double figures, and Portland outrebounded Orlando 44-29, but it wasn’t enough to avoid the team’s first home loss and its fifth consecutive non-cover.
Utah edged Minnesota 99-96 Tuesday, coming up short as a six-point road favorite, with Mehmet Okur hitting the go-ahead shot in the waning seconds. The Jazz, who have now alternated SU wins and losses over the last seven games (4-3 ATS), were paced by Ronnie Brewer’s 25 points, and Okur had 21 points and 13 boards.
These two Northwest Division rivals have gone 2-2 SU and ATS in their last four clashes, with the SU winner cashing in each contest, all on the home floor. Utah is on an 11-4 ATS tear in the last 15 meetings with Portland in Salt Lake City, including a 103-96 victory as a 6½-point chalk back on Nov. 5.
The Trail Blazers are on ATS surges of 10-4 against winning teams, 7-3 after a SU loss, 5-2 as an underdog and 29-11 as a ‘dog of less than five points. But along with their current 0-5 ATS slide, they are on pointspread dips of 0-4 when playing on one day’s rest, 0-4 on the road and 1-4 on Thursdays. The Jazz are on spread-covering streaks of 46-21-2 at home, 5-0 after an ATS setback, 5-1 against the West, 5-2 on one day’s rest and 25-11-1 against winning teams.
The under for Portland is on stretches of 8-2 overall, 5-1 on the road, 8-3 against winning teams and 43-20 in Western Conference play, and the under is 5-1 in Utah’s last six overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
St. Joe’s (4-4, 3-3 ATS) at (15) Villanova (8-1, 3-3 ATS)
Villanova, coming off its first loss of the season in Tuesday’s the Jimmy V Classic, aims to get back on track when it plays host to cross-town and Big 5 rival St. Joe’s.
The Wildcats came up short against No. 6 Texas on Tuesday night, falling 67-58 as a two-point pup at Madison Square Garden, ending their eight-game SU winning streak to start the season. Poor shooting and turnovers plagued ‘Nova, which hit just 38 percent of its shots from the field (22.2 percent from 3-point range) and gave the ball away 19 times. Leading score Dante Cunningham (17.4 ppg) finished with 23 points, but Villanova fell 19 points below its season average (77.2) while giving up 10 more points than its average (57.9).
The Hawks ripped Towson 85-64 Tuesday as a four-point road ‘dog, bouncing back from a 69-58 home loss to perennial mid-major power Creighton. St. Joe’s hit a sizzling 51.7 percent from the floor (31 of 60) and 84.2 percent from the foul line (16 of 19), while outrebounding the Tigers 37-20. Top scorer Ahmad Nivins (19.1 ppg) had 25 points and nine rebounds, and Darrin Govens scored 22.
The Hawks sit at .500 on the season in most part because they’re scoring almost as many points (67 ppg) as they’re giving up (63.4).
Villanova is on a 6-2-1 ATS surge in this annual rivalry, though St. Joe’s pounded the Wildcats 77-55 last February laying 3½ points at home. The favorite has gone 5-0-1 ATS in the last six clashes.
The Wildcats are on a 3-8 ATS slide following a SU loss, but they are on positive pointspread upticks of 4-1 after a non-cover and 10-3-1 against Atlantic 10 opponents. Meanwhile, the Hawks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 non-conference tilts, but they carry negative ATS trends of 1-4 in roadies, 1-4 against winning teams, 2-7 after a SU win and 2-5 after a spread-cover.
The under for Villanova is on streaks of 21-7-1 overall, 4-0 at home and 5-0 outside the Big East, and the under for St. Joe’s is on runs of 7-3 overall, 5-0 against winning teams, 6-2 against the Big East and 8-3 in non-conference contests. Finally, the total has stayed low in each of the last five meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VILLANOVA and UNDER
JIM FEIST
BOSTON CELTICS / WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Take UNDER
Washington is not the dynamite offensive team we've seen in recent years because of injuries. Even oddsmakers haven't adjusted, as the Wizards are on a 9-5-1 under the total. That struggling offense runs into the second best defensive team in the NBA here. Boston has won 12 in a row and allows 91 ppg and 41.5% shooting by opponents (tops). The Celtics have had 3 full days to rest, so they will have plenty of defensive energy and intensity available to keep the win streak going. Play the Celtics/Wizards under the total.
DAVE COKIN
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS / UTAH JAZZ
Take PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
Utah is always tough at home, but I think the Jazz might struggle tonight. Portland is off a home loss that had to really irritate the Blazers, as they coughed up a late lead to Orlando on Tuesday night and lost with just a tick left on the clock. Look for the Blazers to be revved up for this one, and Utah might still be without Carlos Boozer. I rarely recommend fading the Jazz at home, but I'll make the exception and back the Blazers tonight.
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
CHICAGO over New Orleans by 1
On the surface, a cold and blustery December night in Chicago does not figure to serve the climate-controlled Saints well. That is, however, until our database kicks into the equation. The Bears looked to have the road paved to the playoffs by the schedule maker when he awarded them a pair of three-game home stands this season. Little did he realize that home teams in the 2nd of a 3-game regular season home stand struggle when playing off a SU and ATS win and hosting a .500 or greater foe seeking revenge (Chicago has beaten New Orleans three straight times, including a season ender that cost them a .500 record last year and a playoff loss here in 2006). That’s because these weighty hosts are just 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS in this role since 1980. And we’ll bet you didn’t know that NO team in the league has fared better than the Saints in the stat-wars this season where they are 10-2-1 ITS (In The Stats). Now there’s a bar bet you’ll win, hands down. Dome be damned… we’re feeling mighty saintly here tonight.
THE PLATINUM SHEET
NEW ORLEANS at CHICAGO
As horrific as my NFL best bets have been this season, and in particular of late, sometimes you have to swallow your pride and take advice from others more “in the know”. In this case, the “consultant” more in the know is my young son A.J., who put this New Orleans-Chicago game in simple perspective for me…”The Bears can’t stop Drew Brees”. Sometimes,it’s that simple. As I thought about it more, he’s probably right. This isn’t the dominant Bears’ defenses of past years. This group gives up 234 YPG passing. If you look back several years, they’ve never fared well against prolific offenses anyhow: CHICAGO is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6 yards/play since 1992. The average score was CHICAGO 15.7, OPPONENT 25.3 - (Rating = 1*). The StatFox Game Estimator calls for the Saints to put up 385 yards of offense and 28 points. Those are big numbers for an underdog and Chicago is 14-38 ATS when it allows between 22-28.Play: New Orleans +3
Nelly's Greensheet
CHICAGO (-3) New Orleans (45)
The playoff hopes for these teams might appear slim but the opportunities will be there for the winner of this game as many of the other Wild Card contenders will face tougher closing schedules. The Bears have gone 0-3 against the NFC South this season but the three games were lost by a combined total of eight points. New Orleans has now won three of the last four with covers in all four of those games.Despite being a popular team with a bad defense that has underachieved in terms of preseason projections, the Saints are somehow 9-4 ATS on the year, but consider that three covers came by a point or less. The Bears pass defense has not performed well and the Saints should be able to play on. SAINTS BY 7
THE GOLD SHEET
*CHICAGO 27 - New Orleans 20—Soldier Field has been a minefield the L2Ys for N.O., which has lost both visits (including numbing 39-14 NFC title game in ‘06). Possible wintry conditions a lot different for Drew Brees, who has 19 TDs vs. 4 ints. at the Superdome, and 7 TDs vs. 10 ints. away. Depleted Saints defense might lose DE Will Smith to suspension (check status); the offense, Deuce McAllister. Advantage Chicago if Bears can establish solid RB Matt Forte (1081 YR; product of Tulane), opening play-action opportunities for Kyle Orton.
(07-CHI. 33-N. Orl. 25...N.28-13 N.20/105 C.27/96 N.35/60/2/308 C.13/28/1/179 C.2 N.1)
(07-CHICAGO +1 33-25...SR: Chicago 14-11
THE MAX
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
@Bears (-3) over Saints
Several weeks into the season I was forced (like a lot of handicappers) to acknowledge that Kyle Orton was establishing himself as a decent quarterback. Then Orton injured his ankle in a 27-23 win over Detroit and he hasn't been quite the same QB since. With the Bears' offense averaging 6.0 yards per pass and giving up the same it would seem a good place to take a Saints team that is throwing for 8.0 yards per pass and giving up 6.8 and is installed as an underdog despite scoring better than 28 points per game and scoring under 20 just once this season. Let's delve a little deeper. In place of Kyle Orton backup Rex Grossman has eaten up 62 pass attempts and moved the team just 4.2 yards per throw. That drop from Orton's 6.7 yards per attempt makes the Bears look worse than they really are. And behind rookie RB Matt Forte the Bears have a substantial edge in the running game, one that is worth about 3 points per game all by itself. Oddly enough my stats also record a higher schedule strength for the Bears. The Saints are 7-6, yet they occupy the basement of the strong NFC South. And as usual the NFC North is several games below the 0.500 mark. But Chicago has faced some tough teams outside their division like Philadelphia and Tennessee,while New Orleans has played 4 games against the weak AFC West. Add it all up and my stat model prefers the seemingly deficient Bears by about 5.5 points. The best general tech I have on this game is a negative 84-138 ATS system that isolates certain high scoring teams such as New Orleans likely to be public darlings. This system is 5-12 in 2008 including plays against both the Jets (lost 24-14 as -5) and Giants (lost 20-14 as -6) last weekend. With the Saints at 9-4 ATS and coming off 4 covers in a row it’s likely we'll be bucking the public here. And the Saints apply to a negative 77-135 ATS system that plays against winning teams with good spread records. This spot is already 5-10 on the season.Here at the end of the writeup I'm supposed to have something pithy to say, but this week I just don't have it. The Saints just look like a typically overvalued high scoring team, and I'll take the still somewhat gimpy Kyle Orton and the Bears. Chicago by 10.
Sports Gambling Hotline
New Orleans at CHICAGO
NFL tonight, and why should we expect an UNDER, when all we have seen under the primetime weeknight lights are OVERS?
Monday's Tampa Bay-Carolina OVER made it 12-3 OVER under the Monday night lights, and we are on a 4-0-1 Thursday night OVER run, with last week's Oakland-San Diego contest ending up as a push.
Do the math, that is 16-3-1 OVER on weeknight NFL games this year, and there is no evidence to suggest that tonight's game is going to stay UNDER, as the weather does not look to be an issue, and the Saints have been racking up the big numbers over the last 6 games.
In New Orleans last 6 games, they have combined for 350 gaudy points, or an average of 58.3 points per game combined in that 6 week stretch!
This is the third year in a row these teams are meeting at Soldier Field, and the previous 2 meetings were both easy OVERS.
With those kinds of numbers on our side, we are playing this one to go OVER the posted total as well.
Play on the OVER.
5♦ OVER
Bobby Maxwell
St. Josephs at VILLANOVA -9'
FREE winner Wednesday night on the NBA hardwood with the Hawks as they lost but got the cash in San Antonio. Tonight we're headed to the college court for a comp winner with Villanova to get the job done against St. Josephs.
It's a inter-city battle tonight when Villanova hosts St. Josephs in this battle for Philadelphia. We're going to play Villanova tonight as they've dominated this series in the past, winning seven of the last 10 SU and ATS.
The Wildcats opened the season with eight straight victories, but they went to New York City to take on Texas Tuesday and lost 67-58 as a two-point 'dog. It served as a good learning experience for the 'Cats as they were forced to play an outstanding defensive team. Tonight things will be much easier.
St. Joes is on ATS slides of 1-4 on the road, 2-7 after a straight-up win and 2-5 on the road after a straight-up win. Meanwhile, Villanova is a whopping 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 against the Atlantic 10.
Villanova is going to be looking for a little payback after St. Joes beat Villanova 77-55 as a 3 1/2-point favorite. That snapped a three-game Villanova streak in this series.
I really think the education they got when playing Texas is goint to be a huge help. The Wildcats saw what a great deffensive team and a little offense could do in their loss on Tuesday. Now they must apply what they learned. Look for Villanova to start slow and begin to fly in the second half. Play the Wildcats.
2♦ VILLANOVA
Allen Eastman
Take Portland over Utah
I anticipate that the Blazers will be getting far too many points here and we can capitalize. Utah only covered the last meeting by one point and the Blazers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 against a team with a winning record. Portland doesn’t normally play well in Utah and the Jazz are tough at home, but Portland actually has a winning record on the road this year and have been a very live dog. .
Jeff Benton
How did you like my seventh consecutive free-play winner on Gonzaga over Washington State last night? Not only is that seven in a row, but I’m now 12-2 with freebies over the last 14 days! Let’s keep the streak going Thursday as we shift to the NFL gridiron and play the Bears-Saints game OVER the total.
Right off the bat, I admit that it can be a bit dicey playing a football game at Soldier Field in December OVER the total … especially when that total pretty much requires nearly seven touchdowns. However, by all accounts, the weather in the Windy City tonight – while VERY chilly – is going to be free of precipitation, and the winds shouldn’t be THAT crazy.
So if you put aside weather concerns, here’s what you’ve got: Two teams that have played at Soldier Field in late December and late January the last two years … and combined for 53 and 58 points. You’ve also got a Bears defense that struggles to defend the pass (and you know how much the Saints love to throw!) and a New Orleans defense that plays matador D against the run (and Chicago can move the ball on the ground).
For those into trends, here are some pretty strong ones: The Saints have gone over the total at a 13-4-1 rate in their last 18 games overall, and the over is 7-0 in their last seven games in December. Also, the over is 19-7 in Chicago’s last 26 at Soldier Field and 27-11-1 in their last 39 against NFC opponents. Two more: The over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams, including 4-0 in games played in Chicago!
Oh, and one more thing: In non-Sunday NFL games this year, the “over” is an astounding 17-4-1 in NFL games this year! Can’t argue with that, folks! Play it over the total.
4♦ Saints-Bears OVER THE TOTAL
Tony Weston
What the hell happened to the Los Angeles Lakers last night? Against a short-handed Suns team the Lakers barely get over and fail to cover, costing us a winner in this spot.
Well, tonight, we’re get a W as we’re sticking with action on the NBA hardwood as we head out to the District where the Washington Wizards host the Boston Celtics and will cover as about a 9 1/2 point underdog.
While the Wizards are only 3-5 SU their last eight games, they have been strong as a money maker, going 6-2 ATS in that stretch. And coming into tonight Washington has covered in five straight games, including three at home.
Also, consider that over their last 10 meetings, the Wizards are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS against the Celtics and went 3-1 SU and ATS in four matchups last season, including victories in each of their last three games.
Also, the Wizards are 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS their last four games at home against the Celtics. Last season Washington went 2-0 SU and ATS at home against Boston, beating the Celtics outright as a dog in each of those games.
I’m not saying the Wizards will win outright, but they will cover. Take the points and take Washington at home tonight.
3♦ WIZARDS
James Patrick Sports
Bobcats vs. Mavericks
Our Thursday Night selection takes place on the hardwood in NBA Basketball action as we recommend Dallas Mavericks. The Mavs are hosting the Charlotte Bobcats in “Big D” and they have cashed winning tickets in 6 straight series match-ups. Nowitski is on a roll coming off his Western Conference Player of the Week nomination.
Jimmy The Moose
Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers
Prediction: Edmonton Oilers
Both team's come into this one having won 4 of their last 5 games. The Panthers are 2-19-1 in their last 22 games vs. Northwest opponents. The Oilers have only played 8 home games this season and will be up for this one in front of the home crowd. The Panthers are 0-4-1 in their last 5 trips to Edmonton. The Oilers have won the last 4 meetings overall between the clubs. Look for the hometown Oilers to take this one. Play on the Edmonton Oilers -.