Pointwise Basketball Prophecy
NBA Key Releases
4--Dallas over Charlotte 107-95
NCAA Prophecy
Best of the Rest
Villanova
Rocco Spacamuro
100* New Orleans +3
Wild Bill
Bears-New Orleans Saints Over 44 1/2 (5 units)
Pointwise
CHICAGO 30 - New Orleans 24
Double revenger for the Saints,who lost '06 Title Game to the Bears, 39-14, & again LY, 33-25. Thus, this is the 3rd straight series traveller for NewOrleans. Saints still in it (barely), behind Drew,as well as Thomas & Bush, who posted 6.4 & 8.0 ypr efforts in escape vs Falcons.Realize Saints are 6-1 ATS in non-division play, but can't ignore solid bounceback effort of Bears in rout of Jags, including decent "D" for a change. The chalk has covered last 5 Chicago games by 74 pts ATS, & the Bears are 14-6 ATS as Dec HFs. Warm weather guests are at a distinct disadvantage, so a narrow Bear call.
Indiancowboy COMP
Wisconsin-Milwaukee +14.5
There are no previous meetings between the two teams. Note, that the public is split in this game. Wisconsin-Milwaukee has clearly showed they have the potential to play sound basketball. After all, they did beat Wright State and Detroit in back to back games. Furthermore, it is not as if Wisconsin Milwaukee is intimidated by the bigger/better schools in the nation as this team played Wisconsin and Marquette earlier this year and lost by about 20 points each time. Both of those games were on the road. Miami of Ohio is obviously talented because they have beaten the likes of Temple on the road outright and even covered against Xavier. But, I still have Miami of Ohio ranked about 55 spots in my power rankings as compared to Wisconsin Milwaukee as I have Wisky losing by 9 here so this is significant enough for me to give it out as a comp selection. Obviously, Wisky is not intimidated as they have played tougher teams on the road such as top 25 Marquette and Wisconsin and despite Miami of Ohio being a great team and likely NCAA Tourney team, I like Wisky to lose by single-digits here. The Idaho State Bengals are 4-1 ATS when facing teams with a winning % above 60% meaning they are showing up against the better teams in the league.
Sportsbettingstats
New Orleans Saint at Chicago Bears
The Saints come into this game after beating the Falcons last week 29-24 and the Bears beat the Jaguars 23-10. This is almost a must win game for both teams, as the loser may be out of the Wild Card race. The Bears are only 1 game back of the Vikings in the NFC North and still have a chance to win the division, while the only way the Saints can make the post-season is by snagging a Wild Card. The Saints are led by MVP candidate QB Drew Brees (4100 yds 26 TD 14 INT) and his main targets are Lance Moore (62 rec 744 yds 8 TD) and Devery Henderson (28 rec 668 yds 3 TD). The Saints rushing attack is led by Pierre Thomas (461 yds 7 TD), as Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister have missed a lot of time due to injuries this season. The Bears are led by QB Kyle Orton (2414 yds 15 TD 8 INT) and his main targets are Devin Hester (39 rec 522 yds 3 TD) and Greg Olsen (37 rec 450 yds 3 TD). The Bears rushing attack is led by super rookie Matt Forte (1081 yds 6 TD).
Staff Pick: The weather may be a factor in this game, as the cold and windy conditions will be an advantage for the Bears since it will be more difficult to pick up yards through the air. The Saints are all offense and no defense, as they have the league's top ranked offense, but only rank 21st on defense. For the Saints to win this game they will have to stop Forte, who will get a lot of carries tonight. The Bears D is ranked 7th in the league, but they do not match up well with the Saints because they are good at stopping the run and bad at stopping the pass. If the weather is not bad and Brees is given time to throw, he will pick apart the weak Bears secondary. The Bears front line D will have to get to Brees and put pressure on him. If the Bears cannot stop Brees and the game becomes a shootout, they have no chance. Kyle Orton has been an efficient, yet not spectacular, QB for the Bears and if he has a solid game the Bears will be successful. The Saints will stack the front line to stop Forte, which will open up the field for the Bears. Look for the Bears to step up and play a good defensive game and for the weather to hamper Brees and the Saints passing attack. The Bears will win this game and stay in the race for both the NFC Wild card and NFC North Division title.
Bears 27 Saints 24
Scott Spreitzer
Southern Miss at Kansas State
I'm laying the points with Kansas State in a game being played in Kansas City. Both teams are coming off a succession of close games with Southern Miss beating La Salle in overtime and Iona by a point and losing in overtime to South Alabama and by two points at New Mexico. Kansas State lost by two points each to Kentucky and Iowa and by five at Oregon. The Wildcats have responded to the loss of Michael Beasley with a balanced attack led by Jacob Pullen (15 ppg) and they've had four different leading scorers in their eight games. Southern Miss had high hopes for this season but recruits Andre Jackson and LaVanne Pennington haven't qualified academically yet while guard Jerome Clyburn is injured. This is a tough two-game trip for the Golden Eagles. I'll take Kansas State to bounce back and get the money on Thursday.
Play: Over
LT Profits
St. Louis Blues @ Los Angeles Kings Under 5.5
The Los Angeles Kings have played well defensively at home all year, and they do not have the firepower to exploit a sometimes generous St. Louis Blues defense, so look for a relatively low scoring game tonight.
The Kings may be short on talent, but they have gone a respectable 8-6-4 at home by focusing on defense. They are allowing just 2.56 goals per game at home, with each of their goaltenders having a respectable GAA. Erik Ersberg and Jason LaBarbera have split time just about evenly, with Ersberg posting a 2.52 GAA and LaBarbera at 2.75.
It has been a struggle for LA offensively however, as they are averaging 2.60 goals per game over the entire season. Moreover, they have been even worse as of late, topping three goals just once in the last five games while averaging 2.20 goals during this span.
Now granted, the Over is 9-4 in all St. Louis road games this season. However, that is entirely due to a poor defense that is surrendering 3.38 goals per game away from home. However, the offense is only averaging 2.38 goals on the road, and the Blues have scored two goals or less in five of their last six road contests.
We do not expect the Blues to generate much if anything vs. the Kings defense here, so as long as Los Angeles does not suddenly rediscover their offense, look for an Under in this spot.
Pick: Blues, Kings Under 5.5
Tony Karpinski
Boston Celtics vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Boston Celtics -9.5
Washington is not the dynamite offensive team we've seen in recent years because of injuries to their main man Gilbert Arenas. Their struggling offense runs into the second best defensive team in the NBA here. Boston has won 12 in a row and allows 91 ppg and 41.5% shooting by opponents. KG ripped the 2nd stringers and said they have to do a better job when the starters are resting. The Celtics have had 3 full days to rest, so they will have plenty of defensive energy and intensity available to turn this game into a BLOWOUT!
DUNKEL
Boston at Washington
The Wizards look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in December and 9-5 ATS mark as an underdog. Washington is the pick (+9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Celtics favored by just 6. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+9 1/2).
Game 501-502: Boston at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 127.100; Washington 121.236
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 6; 200 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 9 1/2; 197
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+9 1/2); Over
Game 503-504: Charlotte at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 116.189; Dallas 125.742
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 9 1/2; 196 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 10 1/2; 191
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+10 1/2); Over
Game 505-506: Portland at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 122.371; Utah 121.029
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 1; 189 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 3; 193 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+3); Under
NCAAB
Troy at Middle Tennessee State
The Blue Raiders look to take advantage of a porous Troy defense (82.4 points per game allowed) and come into the contest with a 5-0 ATS record over the last three seasons against poor defensive teams (<77 points per game). Middle Tennessee State is the pick (-13) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Raiders favored by 17. Dunkel Pick:Middle Tennessee State (-13).
Game 507-508: St. Joseph's at Villanova
Dunkel Ratings: St. Joseph's 62.262; Villanova 70.651
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Villanova by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph's (+9 1/2)
Game 509-510: WI-Milwaukee at Miami (OH)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 51.660; Miami (OH) 64.034
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Milwaukee (+14 1/2)
Game 511-512: Southern Mississippi at Kansas State
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 59.708; Kansas State 69.266
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 4
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-4)
Game 513-514: Troy at Middle Tennessee State
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 45.785; Middle Tennessee State 62.539
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 17
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 13
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-13)
Game 515-516: Fairfield at Fordham
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 53.104; Fordham 48.151
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 5
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 8
Dunkel Pick: Fordham (+8)
Game 517-518: Long Beach State at Weber State
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 50.758; Weber State 52.665
Dunkel Line: Weber State by 2
Vegas Line: Long Beach State by 1
Dunkel Pick: Weber State (+1)
Game 519-520: Idaho State at WI-Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho State 51.834; WI-Green Bay 59.392
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 10
Dunkel Pick: Idaho State (+10)
Game 521-522: Sacramento State at New Mexico State
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento State 42.323; New Mexico State 63.227
Dunkel Line: New Mexico State by 21
Vegas Line: New Mexico State by 20
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (-20)
NHL DUNKEL
Carolina at Philadelphia
The Hurricanes look to build on their 4-1 record when revenging a home loss versus an opponent as they take on a Philadelphia team that beat Canes (2-1) at home on Saturday. Carolina is the underdog pick (+150) according to Dunkel, which has the Hurricanes favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+150).
Game 1-2: Nashville at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.858; Columbus 10.856
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+100); Over
Game 3-4: Tampa Bay at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 10.090; Montreal 12.966
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 3; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-260); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-260); Over
Game 5-6: Carolina at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.853; Philadelphia 10.839
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+150); Under
Game 7-8: NY Islanders at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 9.567; Pittsburgh 12.002
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-240); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-240); Under
Game 9-10: Florida at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 12.563; Edmonton 11.468
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+135); Over
Game 11-12: Minnesota at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 12.562; Phoenix 11.489
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-125); Under
Game 13-14: Anaheim at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.822; San Jose 11.717
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-185); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+165); Under
Game 15-16: St. Louis at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 10.296; Los Angeles 11.775
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-155); Under
NFL
New Orleans at Chicago
The Bears look to take advantage of a New Orleans team that is just 3-5 ATS over the past three seasons as a road underdog of 3 points or less. Chicago is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Bears favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3).
Game 301-302: New Orleans at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 130.485; Chicago 135.581
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 5; 41
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3); Under
Matt Fargo
Idaho State at Wis-Green Bay
Prediction: Idaho State
Looking at records alone, Wisconsin-Green Bay looks like it should be a big favorite here but records hardly tell the story. Idaho St. is arguably the best 2-6 team in the country. The Bengals have lost three games in overtime this season so right there are three wins that got away. More impressive is their last game where they went to Kohl Center and nearly pulled off the monumental upset against Wisconsin, losing by just two points. Overall, Idaho St. has played a schedule ranked 34th in the nation.
Idaho St. has the ability to make some noise in the Big Sky Conference after being an also ran for numerous seasons. The Bengals bring back four starters from last season and it is showing already despite the lack of wins. Last season, they brought back only two starters and it showed early on as Idaho St. went 2-9 in its first 11 games. It started to gel after that and the Bengals finished 10-10 in their final 20 games and went a respectable 8-8 on the conference.
Wisconsin-Green Bay is pegged to finish in the top three in the Horizon League as it has all five starters back from a season ago. The Phoenix are 5-2 to start the season but it has come against a schedule that is weak. They are already 2-0 in the conference with identical 57-46 wins over Detroit and Wright St. However, how can they explain losing to Rollins College, a small Division I school from Florida? As far as I?m concerned they can?t. Ryan Tillema was out but he has been out all year and is out tonight as well.
Wisconsin-Green Bay is coming off those two conference games and it has a game at Wisconsin coming up on Saturday so it would not be surprising to see a less than fully focused Phoenix team. Idaho does fall into a bounce situation based on that. Play Against home teams in non-conference games that are coming off a win against a conference rival. This situation is 113-65 ATS (63.5 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being just -3.8 ppg. 3* Idaho St. Bengals
Tom Freese
Charlotte Bobcats at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats
Charlotte is 11-1 ATS as road dogs of 5.0 to 10.5 points and they are 6-2 ATS their last 8 games vs. winning teams. The Bobcats are 8-3 ATS off an ATS loss and they are 11-5 ATS off a straight up loss. Dallas is 2-9 ATS their last 11 home games and they are 7-19-1 ATS their last 27 Thursday games. The Mavericks are 2-6 ATS vs. Eastern Conference foes and they are 4-9 ATS their last 13 games vs. losing teams. PLAY ON CHARLOTTE +
LARRY NESS
Southern Miss @ Kansas State
PICK: Southern Miss
Bob Huggins coming to Manhattan, Kansas was "big news" two years ago and the fiery head coach made some news by leading the Wildcats to a 23-win season, although KSU didn't get an NCAA invite. Expectations were running 'sky high' in Manhattan for the 2007-08 season, as highly-touted freshman Michael Beasley was headed to town and Bill Walker, who missed most Huggins first season with an injury, was expected back healthy. Well, Beasley (26.2-12.4) was even "better than advertised" last year and Walker (16.1-6.3) was healthy all year but Huggins wasn't around to coach them, as he left prior to the season, to take over at his alma mater (West Va). KSU acted quickly, hiring assistant coach Frank Martin, giving him his first-ever head coaching job. Martin (with some help from Beasley and walker) led the Wildcats to a 21-win season, which included a first round NCAA win over USC. However, both Beasley (2nd overall pick) and Walker left for the NBA and the Wildcats are a tough group to figure this year. They have talent and opened 5-0 but have dropped three straight heading into this game. The losses have all been close, dropping consecutive two-point games in Las Vegas to Kentucky and Iowa and then losing 75-70 in Oregon last Sunday. This "home" game in Kansas City vs Southern Miss begins a stretch of seven straight games at home, not ending until a January 13th trip to Lawrence (it ends with a Jan 10 game vs Blake Griffin and Oklahoma). Pullen is the team's leading scorer (15.0-3.6 APG) but he only shoots 35 percent from the floor. Brown (8.3) returns in the backcourt and gets less time than last season, as Miami-Fla transfer Clemente (12.4-2.6 APG) has played well. There are no Beasleys or Walkers in the frontcourt but five players are making contributions. Redshirt freshman Samuels (10.5-4.8) is the top point-producer at 6-8, with 6-5 swingman Sutton (9.4-5.9) being a close second. Add in the 6-10 Kent (8.6-5.8), the 6-11 Colon (5.4-4.6) and the 6-8 Anderson (4.9-5.9) and you can see what I mean when I say, the team has talent. Coming into Kansas city for this game is Southern Miss, another team with some talent, which like KSU, has played nothing but close games, recently. Three double-digit scorers return from LY's 19-win team, the best being guard Wise (20.6-4.6-4.1). Horton (12.3) and Beasley (11.7) join him in a three-guard backcourt. Craft (8.0-4.6) gets his minutes and points from the perimeter as well, with the 6-8 Stephens (6.1-4.7) and the 6-6 Stone (5.4-4.6) being the team's best frontcourt players. Head coach Larry Eustachy knows more than just a little basketball (just keep him from those fraternity and sorority parties!) and has led the Golden Eagles to seasons of 20 and 19 wins, after winning a total of just 21 games in his first two years at Hattiesburg. He was supposed to have an excellent freshman class this year but we've seen little evidence of that in the early going. He took his team to the Virgin Islands in late November and lost a 70-60 decision in the tourney opener to a good Miami team. Since then, his team has played four games, going into OT twice with the other two being decided by one and two points. Southern Miss beat LaSalle (76-72 in OT) and Iona (64-63) in the Virgin Islands but then lost at home to South Alabama (76-73 in OT) and in "The Pit" to New Mexico (60-58). Are those close games a good sign or a bad one? I'm not sure but I can't see either of these teams "laying points" in this one, so I'm taking the points with Southern Miss, which will own the best player on the floor in Jeremy Wise.
Vernon Croy
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Utah Jazz -2.5
Take Utah ATS, Utah is a very dominant home team where they have won 81% of the time the last 3 seasons and they are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less. Portland has failed to cover a game so far in December with a 0-5 ATS record and they are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with 1 days rest. Utah is a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after an ATS loss and they are also 25-11-1 ATS in their last 37 games when playing against a team that has a winning record. The home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two team and the Trail Blazers are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 trips to Utah. Utah is averaging 104 ppg at home this season while shooting 49.2% as a team and out-scoring their opponents by an average of 9.7 ppg. Take Utah as my NBA Free Play for Thursday night and make sure you get on my perfect NFL and CBB Run which both continue tonight.
Wunderdog
New Orleans at Chicago
Pick: New Orleans +3
A critical NFC Thursday Night matchup features a pair of 7-6 teams that will be playing what may be an elimination game. The Bears have long been known as a defensive team, but the face of this team has changed. They have had a soft schedule when it comes to offensive teams, yet they have still allowed 20 or more points in nine of their 13 games played thus far. They have only played five games the entire season against offenses that rank in the top half of the league. When they have played these better-than-average offensive teams, the Bears have allowed 25.5 ppg. And now they must face the best the NFL has to offer this season. The Saints have put points up on everyone, as they have topped the 20 mark in 12 of 13 weeks. The strength of this Bears defense is stopping the run. They are in the top 10 against the run. But, despite playing for the most part against sub-par offenses, the Bears are getting torched for 234 ypg through the air. And, we know the strength of the Saints offense is the air-game behind Drew Brees who is putting up an MVP-worthy season at QB. Chicago has always struggled against explosive offenses as they are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games vs. teams that average 6+ yards a play. The Chicago offense is better suited for running the ball, rather than putting the game in Kyle Orton's hands. Matt Forte has rushed for over 1,000 yards, and has made the difference for the Bears offense this season. I expect the Bears to use him a lot here, as no one else has gained more than 109 yards on the ground for the Bears on the season. But here's a shocker for you: The Saints, not known for defense, have stopped the featured back every game they have played this season. They have faced almost every top RB in the league, including the top three on four occasions. They have faced Andrien Peterson, Michael Turner (twice), Clinton Portis and DeAngelo Williams, and guess what? Not one of them ran for 100 yards! Peterson carried 21 times for 32 yards.Chicago has also faced Ryan Grant and Frank Gore and neither got to the 100 mark. The only back that went for 100+ on the Saints this season is LaDanian Tomlinson who put up 105 in a game played in England. The Saints seduce teams into a passing game, and the Bears aren't equipped to go toe-to-toe with the Saints in the air. I'll take New Orleans as a very live dog here. Get my play on the total for this game, as well as the rest of this week's picks here.