SPORTS ADVISORS
Indianapolis (10-4, 6-8 ATS) at Jacksonville (5-9, 4-10 ATS)
The red-hot Colts go after their eighth straight victory when they travel to Alltel Stadium for an AFC South contest against the struggling Jaguars.
Indianapolis dropped Detroit 31-21 Sunday, but failed to cash as an overwhelming 16½-point chalk, falling to 3-4 ATS during its seven-game SU surge. QB Peyton Manning (28 of 37, 318 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) was typically steady, helping the Colts outgain the Lions by nearly 100 yards (421-323), and TE Dallas Clark (12 catches, 142 yards, 1 TD) and WR Reggie Wayne (7 catches, 104 yards) both had big days. Still, the Colts blew a 21-10 halftime lead and scored the final 10 points to break a 21-21 tie.
Jacksonville, in the rare role of home underdog, beat Green Bay 20-16 catching 2½ points on Sunday, halting a four-game SU and ATS freefall that essentially ended the team’s season. QB David Garrard (21 of 33, 238 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) had one of his best games in weeks as he led a turnover-free offense. WR Dennis Northcutt (5 catches, 127 yards, 1 TD) had a strong day, and RB Maurice Jones-Drew had two fourth-quarter TDs (1 receiving, 1 rushing) to clinch the win.
Jacksonville got a last-second 51-yard field goal from Josh Scobee to upset the Colts 23-21 as a four-point road underdog back in Week 3, and the Jaguars have now cashed in three of the last four meetings in this rivalry (2-2 SU). The road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings and the underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight clashes.
The Colts and the Jaguars both have middling offenses this season, with Indy averaging 23.1 points (17th) and 327.3 yards per game (18th), and Jacksonville just a shade behind in yards per game at 318.0 (20th) while averaging 19.4 ppg (24th). Both squads are in the top half of the league in total defense, with Indianapolis giving up 317.2 ypg (11th) and Jacksonville yielding 319.1 ypg (15th). Indy is allowing 19.6 ppg (10th), and Jacksonville is giving up 22.1 ppg (19th).
The Colts are on ATS slides of 1-4 in division play, 1-5 as a favorite, 2-5-1 as a road chalk against AFC South foes and 4-10 in December, but they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six Thursday contests. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are on pointspread declines of 1-4 overall, 1-6 at home, 0-5 after a SU win, 0-5 after an ATS win and 1-5 in the AFC South, but they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a home ‘dog.
The over has hit in the Colts’ last four division games and four of their last six on the road, and the over for Jacksonville is on runs of 7-2 as an underdog, 6-2 as a home pup, 9-3 in December and 11-4-2 against winning teams. Also, the over is 5-2 in the last seven clashes between these teams at Alltel Stadium.
Finally, the over is 18-5-2 in non-Sunday NFL games this year.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Mississippi (7-3, 4-4 ATS) vs. (9) Louisville (6-1, 4-3 ATS) (at Cincinnati)
The SEC/Big East Invitational continues, with Louisville meeting Mississippi on the neutral floor of Cincinnati’s U.S. Bank Arena.
The ninth-ranked Cardinals dropped Austin Peay 94-75 Saturday for their fourth straight win, but they failed to cover as a heavy 23-point home chalk, their second straight ATS setback. Since a stunning 68-54 upset loss at Western Kentucky on Nov. 30, Louisville has run off four straight victories by an average of 30 points per game (87.5-57.5). Against the Governors, Louisville’s leading scorer Samardo Samuels (17.0 ppg) had 21 points and 12 rebounds, while Preston Knowles contributed 21 points and Terrence Williams had 20 points and eight assists.
Mississippi held off Alabama State 85-81 Monday in a non-lined game, bouncing back from Saturday’s 103-70 blowout loss at New Mexico, and the Rebels have alternated SU wins and losses over their last five games (2-1 ATS in lined contests). Against Alabama State, David Huertas (21.0 ppg) led four players in double figures with 25 points, and Ole Miss hit 20 of 25 free throws, helping make up for Alabama State’s 56.9 percent shooting from the field.
These schools haven’t squared off on the hardwood since a home-and-home series a decade ago, with Mississippi winning and cashing as a favorite in both contests.
For the season, Louisville is averaging 80.0 ppg while giving up just 56.1 (15th in the nation), and the Cards have held opponents to just 25.8 percent shooting from 3-point range, which ranks fifth nationally. Mississippi is averaging 77.5 ppg and allowing 72.9.
The Cardinals are on ATS rolls of 21-8-1 overall, 6-1-1 after a non-cover, 13-5-1 against winning teams, 12-5 after a SU win and 9-4 in non-conference play. The Rebels, meanwhile, have cashed in seven of their last nine games against winning teams, but they are on pointspread skids of 0-4 on Thursday and 2-6 at neutral sites.
The under for Louisville is on runs of 5-1 overall, 11-3 against the SEC, 6-2-1 after a SU win and 5-2-1 on neutral floors. On the flip side, the over for Ole Miss is on streaks of 13-3 overall, 5-1 at neutral sites and 23-9-1 in non-conference action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE
Sportsbettingstats
Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts come into this game after beating the Lions 31-21 and the Jaguars beat the Packers 20-16. This game was supposed to be a big game when the schedule came out, but the Jags may be the biggest disappointment in the league and they will miss the playoffs. The Colts started the season struggling, but now the Colts have won 7 straight games and are a team that no team wants to face in the post-season. The Colts are led by QB Peyton Manning (3543 yds 23 TD 12 INT) and his main targets are Reggie Wayne (74 rec 1022 5 TD) and Dallas Clark (63 rec 684 yds 5 TD). The Colts rushing attack is led by Joseph Addai (540 yds 5 TD), who is questionable for the game with an injury. The Jaguars are led by QB David Garrard (3164 yds 13 TD 10 INT) and his main targets are Matt Jones (65 rec 761 yds 2 TD) and Maurice Jones-Drew (54 rec 484 yds 2 TD) coming out of the backfield. The Jags rushing attack is led by Maurice Jones-Drew (655 yds 12 TD).
Staff Pick: The Indianapolis D is ranked 11th in the league and they have played better as the season has gone on. Their D is better at defending the pass than defending the run. They will have to contain Maurice Jones-Drew, who is legit rushing the ball and catching the ball out of the backfield. The Jags D is ranked 15th and they have a tall task trying to contain Manning, who is playing like he did when he was the MVP. Manning, much like the Colts, had a poor start of the season and is now the main reason the Colts are on fire. Nothing has gone right for the Jags this season, as both their offense and defense has been inconsistent. David Garrard has looked great in some games and horrible in others. If the Colts can win this game they will snag an AFC Wild Card. The Jags won their last game, but before that had lost 4 straight. Look for Manning to have a big game, as the Colts cannot be stopped. The Colts will win this away game and the Jags nightmare season will continue, as they look forward to next year.
Colts 32 Jaguars 24
James Patrick Sports
Suns vs. Trailblazers
Our Thursday selection is Phoenix Suns in NBA action as they pay a visit to Portland to take on the Blazers. The Suns have shined in this series winning the money at a 23-8-1 ATS rate and they are also 5-0 ATS in Portland.
Dave Cokin
Western Kentucky @ South Alabama
Play: Western Kentucky +3'
The Hilltoppers should rebound off an incredible bad game at Evansville. This is a very big early conference hookup between teams looking to be very mich in the hunt in the Sun Belt. I see a tight skirmish unfolding tonight, and while South Alabama is certainly a capable squad, I like taking the points with Western Kentucky for the play.
Brad Diamond Sports
We'll be at the DAC this evening catching the Drexel and Niagara game as former LaSalle player and assistant coach Joe Mihalich (Niagara HC)brings the rain gods to Philadelphia. HC Flint(Drexel)and Mihalich know each other after years as assistants vying for the similar player on the recruiting highway. So, when the better defense (Drexel)shuts down the long range shooting of this visitor, an upset alert is on deck!Drexel is 4-1 ATS at home and 13-5 ATS on Thursday's.
Play on: Drexel+ over Niagara
Dennis Hill
Phoenix Suns vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Phoenix Suns +5
I look for Phoeinix to get better play now that they have added more speed in thier line-up with the trade that they made. Portland's tough at home, but they are 0-2 SU & ATS vs. Phoenix this year. Take the Suns to win and cover again tonight.
Jimmy The Moose
Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning
Prediction: Colorado Avalanche
Over their last 10 games the Avalanche are 5-5 while the Lightning have struggled even more winning only 1 of their last 10 games. Colorado is 22-7 in their last 29 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Avalanche are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. Southeast opponents. Colorado has won 5 of their last 7 games vs. team's with a losing record. The Lightning 13-41 in their last 54 games overall. Tampa has lost their last 4 home games. In their last 8 vs. Western Conference opponents the Lightning are 1-7. Colorado has won 4 of the last 5 meetings. Play on the Colorado Avalanche +.
Brian Hansen
San Antonio Spurs at Orlando Magic
Prediction: Orlando Magic
The Spurs are coming off a road loss last night and I look for them to falter again this evening! Orlando is coming off a convincing 109-98 victory over Golden State two nights ago and I look for them to be sharp in front of the home town crowd; in fact it's interesting to note that Orlando is already a great 8-4 ATS after a non-conference game! Look for San Antonio to fall to 3-5 ATS its last 8 in non-conference games; play on ORLANDO!
Cajun Sports
Evansville vs. North Carolina
Play: North Carolina -29.5
The Number One North Carolina Tar Heels will play host to the Evansville Purple Aces on Thursday night. These two teams have never met on any court although the Purple Aces have faced the Number One team twice in their history losing to Ohio State in 1961 and DePaul in 1980.
Evansville is off to their best start in over twenty years with a 7-1 record and winning their fourth straight last Saturday defeating Western Kentucky 72 to 40. They held the HIlltoppers to only 26.7% from the field in that win.
This win by the Purple Aces was important because this Hilltoppers team defeated a then ranked Number 3 Louisville Cardinals team during their own four-game winning streak which was halted by Evansville.
The Purple Aces have won by playing solid defense limiting their opponents to only 59.3 points per game and 39.8% shooting from the field. However, Evansville has not faced a major conference team and lost its only road game, 75 to 59 at Butler in November.
The Tar Heels team they will face tonight averages 97.3 points per game versus teams that only allow 74.3 points per game. The Carolina defense is solid allowing opponents to score only 65.2 points per game versus teams that would normally score 73.9 points per game.
North Carolina averages winning their games by 28.7 points per game and have won none by fewer than 15 points this season. They have scored at least 98 points in their last six games and rank second in the nation with 97.3 points per game. To say this is a step up in class for the Purple Aces could possibly be the understatement of the year.
Although North Carolina defeated Oral Roberts easily 100 to 84 and led by double-digits for most of Saturday’s contest Head Coach Roy Williams was not happy with some areas of their performance. Williams was primarily disappointed because the Tar Heels surrendered 50 points in the second half and also were outrebounded for the second time this season giving up a season high 43 boards.
We expect Coach Williams to have those issues corrected and we should see a much more intense Tar Heel team on the boards and the defensive end of the floor on Thursday night. This is not good news for an already overmatched Evansville squad.
The Tar Heels have continued to play well when coming off a home win of 10 or more points in their previous game by posting a 6-0 ATS record. They are also 12-1 ATS during the month of December over the last two seasons. The Purple Aces have not responded well when coming off a game where they led by at least 15 points at the half and are now on the road, they are 0-8 ATS in this particular situation.
We will lay the chalk with the Heels on Thursday night as they continue to dismantle teams at will. They have the advantage in every conceivable category and in the most important one of all, talent!
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: North Carolina 104 Evansville 59
Bob Balfe
Jacksonville +6.5 over Indianapolis
The Colts can clinch a playoff spot with a win tonight, however this team is banged up big time and it is not good for them to be playing on such a short week of rest. Joseph Addai might not play and even if he does I do not see the Colts running the ball on the Jaguars defensive line. Payton Manning is going to have to throw the ball a lot and it doesn't help that Marvin Harrison is out tonight. To make matters worst Dallas Clark is banged up and so if 60% of the offensive line. This Colts team could be in major trouble tonight and for the rest of the regular season. The Jaguars had a very disappointing season, but there is no denying that they have a load of talent. This team underachieved and would like to do nothing more than make Indy wait another week to make the playoffs or perhaps miss them entirely. Jacksonville has a big offensive line going against a very undersized Colts Defense. Indianapolis is even hurting on defense with their LB's shuffled and Freeney and Sanders nursing injuries. Jacksonville already beat the Colts on the road this season and match up very well today. This is worth a moneyline play of +220. Take the Jaguars.
Bobby Maxwell
Phoenix at PORTLAND -5
Portland is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and they will need that defense tonight when the Suns come calling. We're going to go with the Blazers in this one as they should be able to get the offense going and win and cover this one.
Portland beat Sacramento 109-77, easily covering the line on Tuesday behind 29 points from Brandon Roy in just three quarters. That comes after he put up a career-high 38 points on the Clippers on Friday night. The guard has been playing exceptional despite a nagging knee injury.
The Suns are on a bevy of negative ATS trends, including 1-4-1 as a road 'dog, 2-7 overall, 1-5-1 as a 'dog, 1-5 after a non-cover and 3-9 against the Western Conference. Meanwhile the Blazers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games and 4-1 at home against teams with a winning road record.
We love the way the Blazers came out and buried the Kings on Tuesday. They're giving up just over 94 points a game this season and they'll come out strong again tonight and end up beating the Suns by 10. Play Portland.
3♦ PORTLAND
Jeff Benton
Gotta count UCLA as a loser Wednesday, as the Bruins hammered Loyola Marymount by 31 points but the prevailing line when that game tipped off was 32 1/2. Pretty frustrating when you consider that UCLA missed 10 of 22 free throws! No biggee, though, as I'm still on a 15-6 roll with these freebies. For Thursday, we’ll shift our focus to the NFL and play tonight’s Jaguars-Colts contest OVER the total.
Some trends are just too difficult to ignore, and this is one of them: In NFL games this year not played on Sundays, the “over” is an incredible 18-6-2 – and that’s counting Monday’s Eagles-Browns game as a push when most people likely cashed if they took the “over” (the line moved to 40 about three hours before kickoff).
Since the Thursday night NFL Network games started at the beginning of November, we’ve seen the following combined point totals: 51 (Over), 41 (Under), 68 (Over), 37 (Over), 65 (Over) and 64 (Over). Care to guess one of the teams that was playing during the one Thursday night “under” that was played? Yep, the offensively inept Oakland Raiders, who scored just seven points in a 34-7 loss to the Chargers. Aside from that game, every other Thursday nighter has topped the total!
Tonight, you’ve got two teams that are more than capable of putting points on the board. We know about the Colts, who average 23 points per game, hitting or exceeding that number five times in their last six games. Meanwhile, Jacksonville has definitely struggled offensively this season, but the weapons are there and the Jags are facing an Indianapolis D that’s given up 20, 20, 31, 34 and 27 points in five of its last six road games. Also, Jacksonville put up 23 points and 403 yards in a 23-21 win at Indianapolis in Week 3 – and if it had converted some of its three field goals into touchdowns, those 23 points would’ve been more like 30.
Finally, three of the last four meetings between these teams have gone over the total, five of the last seven in Jacksonville have gone over, and the combined points in the last six matchups have been 44, 53, 36, 61, 35 and 44 points.
4♦ Colts-Jaguars OVER the total
Matt Rivers
For Thursday take the Spurs down South in the Magic Kingdom.
There is no doubt that I am backing the far more fatigued team tonight in San Antonio after a tough game last night in New Orleans but with their professionalism and fire hot play of late I will take my chances.
Orlando has been great this season and clearly a team on the rise. Dwight Howard is an absolute beast that continues to dominate the boards and get better by the game. But when push comes to shove I will still back Pop's squad at this price in this spot.
The Magic just came home from that 4-1 West Coast road trip. Yes that was very successful and the Magic feel good about themselves but when teams go on trips like this they generally fail in that first game back home. Don't ask me why but this is just the case more times than not.
The fourth quarter will not be easy for Duncan, Parker and Ginobli but they have been there and done that on numerous occasions and will come through once again in a situation that is right up their alley.
Wild Bill
Colts-Jags Over 44 (5 units)
DAVE COKIN
WESTERN KENTUCKY / SOUTH ALABAMA
Take WESTERN KENTUCKY
Free opinion is Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers are a pretty decent team, not as good as last year to be sure, but still very capable of making noise again in the Sun Belt. They were awful last game as they were annihilated at Evansville, but watch for Western Kentucky to bounce back with a much better effort tonight in a big game at South Alabama. I look for a tight skirmish that goes to the wire, and I'm backing the visiting Hilltoppers plus the points.