Pointwise
INDIANAPOLIS 24 - Jacksonville 19 - (8:15 - NFL) -- Seven straight wins for the Colts, with but 3 covers in that stretch, with their last 3 RGs decided by just 4, 3,& 4 pts straightup. But this is a revenger, & Peyton is in synch (28-of-37 for 318 yds vs hapless Lions), & now 23/12 for the season. Jags in off snapping 4-game SU slide, as well as 0-6 ATS home run slide. Thus, the dog is now 15-2 ATS in J'Ville games. The Jags are 9-2 ATS in Dec, vs an opponent off a pair of wins, as well as 8-2 ATS as division dogs. Another? Okay, they are 6-2 ATS vs the Colts.And Indy is just a 1-8 ATS chalk, off a double digit win vs an opponent off a win.
Dave Fobare
Jaguars (+6½) over Colts
In their 31-21 win over the toothless Lions the Colts became the first team in NFL history to reel off a 7+ game winning streak in 6 consecutive seasons. Impressive on its face, but the Colts are just 3-3-1 ATS over that streak, and not one of the last 5 wins have come over opponents with a combined record of 19-49-1. Indy is just 5-4-1 ATS in their 10 wins as seven of those have come by less than the touchdown Jacksonville is receiving here. And the undermanned Lions played the Colts well despite the travails of QB Dan Orlovsky, who made his return to the lineup after just 4 weeks off recuperating a throwing hand with multiple fractures.
I love playing against high scoring teams, and my database pops a negative 32-63 ATS system based on the Colts last 2 offensive outputs of 31 and 35 points. These public darlings have failed to cover in this spot by an average of 6 points per game and this spot is 0-2 in 2008.
As we reach the end of the season my database contains a number of special situations for the occasion. The Colts will finish up the 2008 campaign at home, and therefore apply to a negative 7-30 ATS "last game lookahead" play. This play works particularly well when our team is on an extended winning streak. These teams are not only 0-6 ATS when entering Game 15 off four or more wins, but have won straight up only once in that span despite an average price of -9. Let's not forget the Jaguars either. Off their 20-16 upset win over Green Bay they qualify in a 25-6 ATS "bad team off a win" system that won its only 2008 appearance on Cincinnati in their infamous 13-13 tie against the Eagles.
The Colts looked disinterested against the 0-14 Lions, and while they will not look past a 4-9 Jags outfit that beat them 23-21 back in the third game of the season. But the Colts have to work a bit too hard to score most of their points. Detroit has by far the worst secondary in the league and Peyton Manning could only go up top successfully once all game. Indy will be able to move the chains on Jacksonville, but with a diminished quick strike ability and a much sexier game at home against the Titans awaiting them next week I expect the Colts to stub their toe just enough to let the Jags stay with them until the end. Indianapolis by 1
MARC LAWERENCE PLAYBOOK
Indianapolis over JACKSONVILLE by 3
If momentum is a key to a team’s playoff hopes then the Colts are playing like locksmiths. Seven wins in a row and counting, Indy invades Jacksonville with the added incentive of revenge from a 23-21 home loss in Week Two earlier this season. The jamb in their plans is a nasty late season angle that fi nds dogs in Last Home Games in money-making moods when playing off SU underdog wins as these teams are 34-15-1 ATS, including 17-5-1 ATS against an opponent off back-to-back wins. Despite the Ponies’ 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS log on Thursdays, we’ll stand up and Yale with the Jags.
Nelly’s Green Sheet
Indianapolis (-6½) JACKSONVILLE (45)
The NFL network had to be thrilled to land this match-up before the season started but it much less appealing with the Jaguars completely collapsing this season. Indianapolis has not been dominant but the Colts have now won seven consecutive games and should coast into the playoffs as the top wild card team. The Jaguars snapped a four-game losing streak with its first ATS win at home all season long last week but the offense has topped 20 points just once in the last eight games. Jacksonville actually features a far superior run defense to the Colts and the Jaguars could be a dangerous home underdog. COLTS BY 3
THE GOLD SHEET
*Indianapolis 23 - JACKSONVILLE 13
Not convinced last week’s rally vs. Green Bay a late-season “buy” signal on banged-up, going-nowhere Jacksonville, which was down six offensive starters as well as top CB Rashean Mathis. Although Indy (no win by more than 4 on road) not a consistent margin team TY, Colts (7 straight wins) better synchronized than they were when Jags ball-controlled Indy to death at Lucas Oil Stadium Sept. 21. Colts motivated to wrap up a wild card before closing regular season finale vs. powerful Tennessee.
(08-Jack. 23-INDY 21...J.25-19 J.48/236 I.19/114 I.15/29/2/211 J.16/22/1/167 J.0 I.0) (07-Indy 29-JACK. 7...I.24-18 I.33/141 J.27/117 I.23/37/1/243 J.17/36/2/109 I.0 J.1) (07-INDY 28-Jack. 25...J.27-19 J.31/168 I.25/63 I.20/29/1/279 J.24/29/1/243 I.0 J.1) (08-Jack. +4' 23-21; 07-Indy -3 29-7, INDY -6' 28-25...SR: Indianapolis 11-4)
Indiancowboy
Kent State -19.5 over NC Greensboro.
I have always said that whenever over 60% of the public favors the dog, it is reason to be wary. Having said that, such is the case with the public favoring NC Greensboro here on the road at Kent State. However, what the public has failed to realize is that NC Greensboro is not even ranked in the top 300. In fact, they are ranked outside the top 300 in power ranking teams. I’m not the one to usually lay this many points although I did to the detriment yesterday, but keep in mind that Kent State is a top 125 team in most power rankings. Kent State has beat similar teams outside the top 300 such as NC Central by 41, NC Wilmington by 19 and NC Greensboro has lost to the likes of East Carolina on the road by 44, NC State by 27 (both teams ranked in the top 100) and Charlotte by 18 on the road. The only thing that worries me is that NC Greensboro comes off such an ugly loss to East Carolina, but this team is no stranger to losing by 20+ on the road, so my comp pick will go with Kent State at home today who are 10-4 ATS when playing teams with a winning % of less than 40% meaning they win big against the weaker teams in the country.
LT Profits
Northern Colorado +5.5
The Northern Colorado Bears have been a well kept secret since joining the Big Sky Conference last season, but they have gone 20-13-1, 60.6 percent against the spread since then, and they get the call when the visit the Fresno State Bulldogs tonight.
The Bears have been especially lucrative in this road underdog role, going 11-5-1, 68.8 percent, and they are 3-1 as road dogs this year, covering at Oregon, Denver and Creighton. Fresno State is no better than any of those teams, so we see no reason why Northern Colorado cannot take another contest right down to wire.
The key to their success has been their three-point shooting. The Bears are hitting a very solid 40.5 percent from the land of threes this season, meaning that they are rarely out of a game and that they are always dangerous as underdogs, as the backdoor is always open to them.
Now the Bulldogs are just 4-5 straight up on the year, and two of their wins have come vs. non-lined opponents. They have yet to cover a home game this season, going 0-2-2 ATS in their own building, and they have lost three straight lined home games straight up despite being favored in two of those games (Montana, Oregon State).
Finally, Fresno State is a terrible free throw shooting team at just 71.6 percent, which is another reason for their struggles this year. Thus, do not expect them to put the Bears away here, even if they have a late lead.
Pick: Northern Colorado +5.5
Scott Spreitzer
Mississippi at Louisville December
Louisville off an easy 94-75 victory over Austin Peavy moving the mark to 6-1 (4-3 ATS) this campaign play Mississippi (7-3, 4-4 ATS) on Thursday in the SEC/Big East Invitational in Cincinnati. Cardinals not having one of it's best defensive games allowing 48.3% FG, 47.4% 3-point shooting will struggle again vs Ole Miss who aren't slouches on the offensive end scoring 77.5 PPG on 45.3% from the field. Ole Miss Rebels 21-8 ATS after scoring >80 points, 10-5 ATS vs good offensive teams, Cardinals 18-34 ATS playing on neutral court, 15-19 ATS in non-conference games back 15.5 point underdog Rebels.
John Ryan
NC Greensbo at Kent State
Prediction: NC Greensbo
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on UNC Greensboro One thing is certain to happen and that is one of these teams will finally get an ATS win. A push is certainly a small possibility, but UNC ? Greensboro is in a strong position to make this a single digit game. AiS shows a 73% probability that Greensboro will lose this game by 17 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 60-29 ATS for 67% since 2002. Play on dogs of 10 or more points and is a pathetic team shooting =45% on the season and after a game where a team made 33% of their shots or worse. UNC-GREENSBORO is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games when playing against a marginal losing team sporting a win percentage of 40% to 49% since 1997. Kent State is 0-6 ATS after 3 consecutive non-conference games this season. Take UNC Greensboro.
Matt Fargo
Mississippi State at Cincinnati
Prediction: Cincinnati
I was on Cincinnati against Xavier on Saturday and the Bearcats laid a big egg at home in that rivalry game. I would not be backing them in their next game out after Xavier but they had a game in-between as they routed Charleston-Southern on Monday. This is a good spot with two more home games against cupcakes following this before the big game at Memphis on the 29th and then Big East action right after that. The Bearcats are now 6-1 at home following that setback against the Musketeers.
Mississippi St. will be playing just its second true road game on the season and the first one was three weeks ago at St. Bonaventure. The Bulldogs struggled against the Bonnies as they won by only five points as they turned the ball over 24 times. And this came against a St. Bonaventure team that is forcing turnovers on only 23.8 percent of its defensive possessions. So the fact that Cincinnati is forcing turnovers only 20.1 percent of the time means little here.
The big news out of Starkville was that head coach Rick Stansbury was hospitalized for a couple days. He is fine and will coach this game. That was a obviously a big distraction for Mississippi St. and definitely hurt in the preparation for the Bearcats. One big edge that the Bulldogs normally have is that they are very deep with 11 players averaging at least 11 minutes per game. However, the Bearcats play 10 players at least nine minutes so depth is not a concern.
The Bulldogs are in a transition year as a lot of talent was lost and they are not expected to make much noise in the SEC. They are extremely young with only one senior on the entire roster and that is definitely showing in some of their numbers. They have played the 310th ranked schedule in the country and despite this, the turnover problem mentioned earlier is a big issue. They post a 0.79 assist/turnover ratio as they are giving it up 16.2 times per game which is huge considering the soft slate played. 3* Cincinnati Bearcats
Tom Freese
Northern Colorado at Fresno State
Prediction: Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado is 13-3-1 ATS their last 17 non-conference games and they are 4-1 ATS their last 5 road games. The Bears are 5-2 ATS their last 7 games overall. Fresno St is 7-19-1 ATS their last 27 home games and they are 23-47-2 ATS at home vs. teams with a losing road record. The Bulldogs are 2-10 ATS off an ATS loss. PLAY ON NORTHERN COLORADO +
Tony George
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Indianapolis Colts -6/103
I just cannot back the Jags, even after they beat a decent Green Bay team at home this past Sunday. One thing the Colts have Green Bay doesn't is a defense that can stop the run and an offense that is better, even though Marvin Harrision is out tonight and getting an MRI on his knee today. Indy is in the wild card race and this is a MUST WIN game for them, while the injury riddled Jags have little offensive line help against 2 Pro Bowlers for Indy on defensive line. In the last 3 games Jax is averaging 15 points on offense and giving up 23 points on defense, not a winning combination against a hungry team looking for wins to get to the playoffs who are avenging a home loss to the Jags from earlier this season.
Play on Indy, lay the points.
Frank Jordan
Phoenix Suns vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Phoenix Suns +5
Phoenix hasn't been as dominating as in the past but are in second place and have won 60% of their games with a 15-10 record. Portland is slightly better with one more win with a 16-10 record and 8-2 at home. With the new changes to Phoenix look for the Suns to rise up in the Northwest and get the big win on the road. Play Phoenix
DUNKEL
Indianapolis at Jacksonville
The Jaguars look to take advantage of an Indianapolis team that is just 1-4 ATS over the last three seasons as a road favorite between 3 1/2 and 7 points. Jacksonville is the underdog pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cots favored by only 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+6 1/2).
Game 101-102: Indianapolis at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 135.131; Jacksonville 130.700
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 4 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 6 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+6 1/2); Over
NCAAB
Ole Miss vs. Louisville
The Rebels play Louisville in Cincinnati, but are just 2-7 ATS on a neutral court over the last three seasons, including 0-2 this year. The Cardinals are the pick (-15 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Louisville favored by 18. Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-15 1/2).
Game 705-706: Mississippi State at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 63.575; Cincinnati 65.065
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 4
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (+4)
Game 707-708: Evansville at North Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Evansville 60.912; North Carolina 83.667
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 23
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 30
Dunkel Pick: Evansville (+30)
Game 709-710: Florida Atlantic at Troy
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 50.889; Troy 49.985
Dunkel Line: Florida Atlantic by 1
Vegas Line: Troy by 1
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+1)
Game 711-712: Florida International at Arkansas State
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 43.329; Arkansas State 58.859
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 13
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-13)
Game 713-714: Western Kentucky at South Alabama
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 57.408; South Alabama 63.746
Dunkel Line: South Alabama by 6
Vegas Line: South Alabama by 4
Dunkel Pick: South Alabama (-4)
Game 715-716: North Texas at UL Lafayette
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 50.166; UL Lafayette 56.530
Dunkel Line: UL Lafayette by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: UL Lafayette by 4
Dunkel Pick: UL Lafayette (-4)
Game 717-718: Mississippi vs. Louisville
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 58.794; Louisville 76.741
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 18
Vegas Line: Louisville by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-15 1/2)
Game 719-720: Pepperdine at CS Northridge
Dunkel Ratings: Pepperdine 42.455; CS Northridge 54.287
Dunkel Line: CS Northridge by 12
Vegas Line: CS Northridge by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pepperdine (+13 1/2)
Game 721-722: James Madison at Morehead State
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 48.133; Morehead State 54.177
Dunkel Line: Morehead State by 6
Vegas Line: Morehead State by 3
Dunkel Pick: Morehead State (-3)
Game 723-724: Niagara at Drexel
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 57.457; Drexel 55.935
Dunkel Line: Niagara by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Niagara by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Drexel (+4 1/2)
Game 725-726: NC Greensboro at Kent State
Dunkel Ratings: NC Greensboro 45.018; Kent State 66.741
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 21 1/2
Vegas Line: Kent State by 19
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (-19)
Game 727-728: Louisiana Tech at Samford
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 44.280; Samford 50.454
Dunkel Line: Samford by 6
Vegas Line: Samford by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Samford (-3 1/2)
Game 729-730: Iona at Western Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 53.354; Western Michigan 54.403
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 1
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iona (+4 1/2)
Game 731-732: Montana at UC Riverside
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 50.209; UC Riverside 53.626
Dunkel Line: UC Riverside by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: UC Riverside by 2
Dunkel Pick: UC Riverside (-2)
Game 733-734: Northern Colorado at Fresno State
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Colorado 48.766; Fresno State 57.680
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 9
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 6
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-6)
NBA
San Antonio at Orlando
The Spurs look to bounce back from last night's loss in New Orleans and take advantage of Orlando's 9-14 ATS mark versus the Southwest Division over the last three seasons. San Antonio is the underdog pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Magic favored by just 1. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+3 1/2).
Game 701-702: San Antonio at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 123.099; Orlando 123.929
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 1; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 3 1/2; 192 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+3 1/2); Over
Game 703-704: Phoenix at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 118.685; Portland 121.120
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 2 1/2; 205
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 5; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+5); Over
NHL DUNKEL
Philadelphia at Montreal
The Flyers are coming off a 5-2 win over Colorado and look to build on their 10-3 record after scoring 4 or more goals in the previous game. Philadelphia is the underdog pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Flyers favored straight up by 2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+105).
Game 51-52: St. Louis at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 10.507; Washington 12.796
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-240); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-240); Under
Game 53-54: Philadelphia at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 12.968; Montreal 10.931
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+105); Over
Game 55-56: Florida at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 10.785; Carolina 11.753
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-170); Over
Game 57-58: Pittsburgh at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 10.910; Atlanta 12.137
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-165); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+145); Under
Game 59-60: Toronto at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.367; Boston 13.622
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 2 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-230); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-230); Over
Game 61-62: San Jose at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.304; Detroit 12.682
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-140); Over
Game 63-64: Colorado at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 12.452; Tampa Bay 10.564
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+105); Under
Game 65-66: Columbus at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 12.332; Dallas 11.147
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+130); Over
Game 67-68: Nashville at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 12.248; Phoenix 10.304
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+105); Under
Doc's
San Antonio Spurs @ Orlando Magic
PICK: San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio has won and covered in three-straight meetings between these clubs and they really get up to play this Orlando team. We are getting a nice line here because the Spurs are coming in on a back-to-back situation. However, the Magic have a lot of question marks. Their best player, Dwight Howard, is very questionable for this game and was limited in practice. Even though this is a big game coaches might want to hold him out so they don’t risk further injuring his knee – the last thing this team needs is for Howard to miss extended time. The Magic play well at home but they have lost every time they face one of the league’s best defensive teams at home. Their three losses were to Houston (No. 4), Portland (No. 7) and Atlanta (No. 8). The Spurs are the No. 6 defense in the league and will be able to hold the Magic down, especially if Howard misses time or is not 100%.