Jack Jones
North Carolina -30
The Tar Heels are favored by a lot of points tonight, and I don't feel real great about laying that large of a number but they do hold the value. North Carolina is 14-2 ATS against teams shooting better than 45% while holding opponents to under 42% the last two years and they are 13-1 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons. Evansville is 0-8 ATS in road games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half since 1997 while North Carolina is 6-0 ATS in home games off a home win scoring 85 or more points over the last 2 seasons.
Nite Owl Sports
San Antonio Spurs @ Orlando Magic
2 units ATS: Orlando Magic -3.5
We love to go against Spurs in spots where we believe they are vulnerable, as they are still a “public team” with lots of betting support, so we typically get good “lines” whenever we bet against them. And during the latter part of last season we discovered some very distinct tendencies and scoring patterns for this Spurs team, which were reinforced in the playoffs and have statrted to show again this season. We have been waiting patiently for the perfect spot to pounce on this Spurs team that has struggled so far TY with injuries to key skill performers (mostly Ginobli and Parker), and still is not fully "in sync" even though both of those guys are back on the floor, and that spot was last night, in their 7 point loss to Hornets in New Orleans, where we had our BIGGEST WIN OF THE YEAR, for TEN UNITS on Hornets – two five unit picks, one ATS at –2 and one on money line at –130. Prior to last night’s game, the Spurs had played only two games TY visiting good teams, in which they are 1-1, victorious by 17 in Denver while betting blown out by 19 in Houston. But looking at their record LY in that mode, with basically the same team, Spurs were a crappy 6-12-1 ATS, including playoffs, with average MOL of 9 points (and they are just 3 or 3.5 point dogs here). In addition, there was a pretty distinct pattern in many of those games, particularly in the playoffs against the Hornets and Lakers, of Spurs either being close or even leading at the half, but then getting blown out in second half, mostly due to poor shooting. And Spurs did not disappoint us last night, as after three quarters of pretty good shooting and good all around play, resulting in a 7 point Spurs lead after three quarters, they totally self-destructed in the fourth, shooting under 30% and getting outscored 27-13 for the quarter, during which they threw up enough bricks to build a new arena next door, all leading to that exhilarating win for Hornets and +10 units for our subscribers. And that was just part of our MONSTER 5-0 NIGHT LAST NIGHT IN NBA, where we went 5-0 for +17.4 UNITS.
And tonite we find Spurs in another vulnerable spot, having to take a late night flight to Orlando after their come from ahead loss in the Big Easy, and then having to play a rested 19-6 Magic team. Moreover, Spurs have been pretty bad lately playing “back to backs,” already 1-4 ATS TY in that mode, and LY 5-12 ATS, incl 3-7 when the second game was on the road. On the other hand, Orlando will be well rested, with two days rest after returning home from their recent western trip. And Magic are 3-0-1 ATS TY (average win by 4.5 points in those four) when playing on two days rest, as well as 4-0 ATS when playing on at least one day of rest against an unrested team (like SA tonite).
So with all of these edges for Magic, why aren’t we “pounding” them like we did New Orleans last night? Well, there are two reasons. First and foremost is the “questionable” playing status of Magic star forward Dwight Howard, who has missed his last two games with a sprained knee and is officially listed as “questionable” for tonite’s game. Howard not only is leading his team in scoring (21 ppg) and rebounds (14 pg), but he had a field day in each of Magic’s games LY against Spurs, averaging 29 points and 19 rebounds. We will have an update on Howard’s condition and likelihood of playing tonite when we update our pick write up for our subscribers later today. The other reason for holding back on Magic is that they have not been that great at home vs the NBA’s top teams, and despite the “negatives” pointed out above for Spurs in negative scheduling situations like tonite, Spurs are still one of the NBA’s “elite” teams. Magic were just 4-5 ATS LY vs A teams at home (with an average margin of loss of 4 points), including a ten point home loss to SA, “gagged” at home vs Detroit in playoffs, and they are 0-1 (a 5 point loss to Houston) in their one home game TY vs a top team, in addition to two other home losses TY to “B” teams Portland and Atlanta..
So we’ll keep it at two units on Magic at -3.5 or less, but we might “unofficially” increase the units if we are able to get reliable information that Howard not only will play tonite but that his mobility, jumping and shooting no longer seem to be significantly impaired by his ankle injury.
One final note about a possible second half value bet on Magic -- while we cannot assume that this will happen again tonite, it should be noted that NO was behind at HT and after 3Q vs Spurs, only to bury them in the fourth quarter. So we suggest that whatever you plan to play on Magic, hold back half of it for a possible second half bet on Orlando, knowing that you won’t have a second half bet on them if they are up at the half and the HT score and second half line results in a worse adjusted game line on Magic than their pre-game point spread. But if the value is there for a second half bet on Magic (e.g, if adjusted game line based on HT score and 2H line is pick or better), and not only is Dwight Howard playing but there are no game ending first half injuries to him or any other key Magic player, then go for it.
Ron Raymond
DAL (-150) vs CLB
Here's your ultimate letdown spot, as the Blue Jackets are coming off a huge home underdog win last night vs. the Sharks and it will be tough for them to match that intensity tonight after a night of traveling. When DALLAS team played as a home team - Total is 5.5 - With 1 day off - Coming off a Home win as a Favorite - Coming off a 1 goal win; The Stars are 8-2 SU in this spot.
Sports Gambling Hotline
Indianapolis -6' at JACKSONVILLE
It's very hard for us to make a case for any Monday, or Thursday night NFL game staying UNDER the posted total, and we certainly won't here.
Monday night's Cleveland-Philadelphia game did end in a push to the closing total of 40, but we know there were plenty of folks that did cash the ticket with the OVER wager.
So, the "tale of the tape" for the Monday games this year reads; 12-3-1 OVER the posted total in 16 games played.
The Thursday night "tale of the tape" is even more convincing, at 5-0-1 OVER the total in the 6 games played, including last Thursday's OVER between the Saints and Bears.
Add them up, and you have a nice 17-3-2 OVER run under the weeknight lights which is an 85% play.
These teams played to a 23-21 final back at the end of September in their first meeting, and we definitely see a few more points than that on the board tonight.
Play on the OVER in the Colts-Jags clash.
5* OVER
Chris Jordan
San Antonio at ORLANDO -2
We won the Jazz last night right here and my 200♦ winner on Cleveland kept the winning streak alive in the NBA, as it's now at four in row. Look for my fifth straight NBA winner tomorrow night, but in the meantime, take this gift in Orlando tonight.
San Antonio is historically a bad team on the second of back-to-back nights, and after being humbled in the Big Easy last night, I don't think the Spurs will be up for this travel-day contest down in Orlando, where the Magic are 9-3 this year.
And after winning four of their last five - and covering them all - on the West Coast, the homecoming reception should be huge tonight. The Magic are in triple revenge against San Antonio, with the last win coming during the 2006-07 season, a 106-104 victory here.
Tonight the chalk is low enough that I believe we're going to be okay with a solid 6-point win against a team that has lost two straight to the books over the past four nights - including a win over Oklahoma City, which scored 104 points on the once-feared defense of San Antonio.
I'll take the home team here.
4* MAGIC
Karl Garrett
Ole Miss +15 vs. LOUISVILLE - at Cincinnati
Tonight in the college ranks, just too many points for Louisville to be laying in a "neutral" site contest against an Ole Miss team that is looking to atone for the humongous egg they laid over the weekend at New Mexico.
In that game, the Rebels were wiped off the floor to a tune of 103-70. Bottom line, the Rebs are much better than they showed in that game, and they are averaging 76 ppg on the road this season. Compare that to Louisville's 84 ppg they are averaging at home, and you can see that the line for tonight's game is just wrong!
Louisville is not likely to lose this contest, but the Cards have been playing some pretty inferior schools of late - Austin Peay, Lamar, and Ohio U to name a few - and this Mississippi team does have the talent to compete for the full 40 minutes.
G-Man taking the points tonight!
3* OLE MISS
Drew Gordon
Mississippi vs. Louisville -15' at Cincy, OH
This is a mismatch if I ever saw one, and despite the hefty price and the neutral court, lay the points with the Cardinals Thursday. Several strong reasons to like Louisville in this one, but let's start with the most obvious...
The biggest disparity between these two teams is defense, the Cardinals got it, the Rebels don't, plain and simple. Over their last 5 games Pitino's bunch has been allowing just 59 ppg on 38% shooting. The Rebels over the same span? A much more generous 80 ppg on 47% shooting! Needless to say the difference is HUGE, and will be play a major factor in this contest.
Second, while Ole Miss does have some size, they do not have enough "quality" size to match up with the Cards. Louisville's starting frontcourt of Samuels, Clark, and Williams can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the country, and I'm sorry Rebels-backers, but Holloway, White and the rest of your big-men don't stand a chance in hell!
Finally and probably most importantly, is the fundamental difference in styles between these two teams. Problem for Ole Miss is they're a guard-heavy offense, that lives off the penetrate and dish mentatlity. Anyone who's watched Louisville play, knows their defense is far too good and far too fundamental to allow Huertas and company anywhere near the painted area. After a couple failed attempts, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rebels guards go 3-point crazy, and that's exactly what coach Pitino wants. Cards roll!
Take Louisville comfortably over Mississippi in this college hoops match up.
2* LOUISVILLE
Ben Burns
San Jose Sharks @ Detroit Red Wings
PICK: Detroit Red Wings
The Sharks have been getting it done all year and have the best record in hockey. This is a tough spot for them though. While the Sharks are coming off an OT loss at Columbus last night, the Wings have been sitting at home waiting for them. The Sharks are playing their third game in four nights while the Wings haven't played since Monday. The Wings will have plenty of motivation as they already lost at San Jose earlier. They're 54-26 the last 80 times they played with 'revenge' and 18-7 the last 25 times they were a host in this series. Consider Detroit.
Brian Hansen
San Antonio Spurs at Orlando Magic
The Spurs are coming off a road loss last night and I look for them to falter again this evening! Orlando is coming off a convincing 109-98 victory over Golden State two nights ago and I look for them to be sharp in front of the home town crowd; in fact it's interesting to note that Orlando is already a great 8-4 ATS after a non-conference game! Look for San Antonio to fall to 3-5 ATS its last 8 in non-conference games.
Play on: Orlando
Vegas Experts
Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers
After seven straight ATS losses, the Portland Trail Blazers finally made their backers some money Tuesday night, crushing Sacramento by 32 points to spoil Kenny Natt's head coaching debut. Tonight, they are playing with some major revenge against a Suns team that has won and covered each of their last four visits to the Rose Garden. Phoenix has somehow won 4 of 5, despite allowing 103+ points in each of those contests. Won't happen tonight.
Play on: Portland
Wunderdog
Philadelphia at Montreal
Pick: Montreal -119
The Flyers have been a hot team of late and have played well on the season. They have won five-straight games, but the last four have all come at home. The Canadiens have now dropped three straight, but have played good hockey overall on the season as well. These teams are pretty even and the line has been set accordingly as they have exchanged wins on each others ice this season - both teams winning on the road. The Flyers have done well, but where they have struggled is playing against the Northeast where they hold a brutal 17-35 mark over their last 52 games. On the other hand, the Canadiens have thrived as a home favorite of -110 to -150 where they are 9-3 in their last 12. I think they will also be out to redeem a home loss earlier in the season, so the Canadiens get the call.