SPORTS ADVISORS
San Antonio (18-10, 13-14-1 ATS) at Phoenix (16-11, 11-16 ATS)
The streaking Spurs go for their fourth consecutive win when they travel to the Valley of the Sun for a Christmas Day battle with longtime nemesis Phoenix at US Airways Arena.
San Antonio capped a perfect three-game homestand with Tuesday’s 99-93 victory over the Timberwolves, falling way short as a 12-point favorite. Not only have the Spurs won three in a row, but they’ve won 16 of their last 21 games (12-8-1 ATS) since starting the season 2-5. However, Gregg Popovich’s squad has followed up a 5-1 SU and ATS run on the road by losing its last two on the highway both SU and ATS.
The Spurs have scored at least 94 points in their last 13 wins, but they’re averaging just 80.6 ppg in their last eight defeats.
Phoenix has been idle since Saturday’s 108-101 home win over the Nuggets, covering as a 5½-point home favorite. The Suns are 5-2 SU in their last seven games, with all five wins coming at home, but they’re just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 overall. Phoenix has had its offense clicking during its 5-2 stretch, averaging 113 ppg.
San Antonio eliminated the Suns in six games in an opening-round playoff series last fall, but the Suns got a measure of revenge back in the first week of this season, winning 103-98 on the road in a pick-em contest. The underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine series battles, Phoenix is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight and the SU winner is 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 clashes.
The Spurs are on ATS streaks of 11-5 against the Western Conference, 7-1-1 when playing on one day of rest and 4-0 against the Pacific Division. On the flip side, in addition to its current 3-8 ATS rut, the Suns are mired in pointspread funks of 2-5 at home, 4-9 against the Western Conference, 0-5 when facing Southwest Division foes and 1-6-1 when coming off three days or more of rest.
San Antonio is on “under” streaks of 26-10-1 overall, 12-5 on the road, 19-9-1 against the Western Conference, 11-1 versus the Pacific Division, 13-6 on Thursdays and 15-6 when playing on one day of rest. Conversely, Phoenix carries “over” trends of 10-2 overall, 5-2 at home, 5-1 against the Southwest Division, 5-1 on Thursdays and 5-2 when playing on three or more days’ rest. Lastly, the under is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head clashes in Phoenix.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
New Orleans (16-8, 10-12-2 ATS) at Orlando (22-6, 18-9-1 ATS)
The Magic look to keep pace with red-hot Boston and Cleveland in the Eastern Conference race when they host the Hornets at Amway Arena.
Orlando carries a five-game SU and an eight-game ATS winning streak into this contest, most recently knocking off the Warriors 113-81 as a 12-point chalk Monday night. Orlando is 22-4 since beginning the season with consecutive losses, it is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 overall, and Stan Van Gundy’s squad has scored at least 103 points in six of its last seven games.
Orlando has won seven straight home games (5-2 ATS) and is 12-3 (9-6 ATS) for the season at Amway Arena. Meanwhile the Hornets are 7-4 SU and 5-5-1 ATS on the highway.
Like the Magic, New Orleans is also rolling, having won four of its last five, seven of nine and 11 of its last 14, while going 8-5-1 ATS during this stretch. However, on Tuesday, the Hornets completed a three-game homestand with a 100-87 loss to the Lakers as a 2½-point chalk. New Orleans has gone six straight games without scoring 100 points (averaging 91.3 ppg), but Byron Scott’s team had held eight straight opponents under triple digits before the loss to Los Angeles, and they’re still giving up just 89.9 ppg during this nine-game stretch.
These squads have split their two-game season series each of the last three years, with the visitor pulling off mild upsets in each clash in 2007-08. In fact, the ‘dog is on an 8-0-1 ATS roll in this rivalry and the visitor is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings, with the Hornets going 5-0-1 ATS in their last six trips to Orlando.
New Orleans is 15-7-2 ATS in its last 24 games against Southeast Division foes, but the Hornets have failed to cash in 11 of their last 14 Thursday contests. Meanwhile, in addition to ATS runs of 12-2 overall and 5-1 at home, Orlando is on pointspread streaks of 8-0 against the Western Conference, 5-0 versus winning teams and 5-0-1 when playing on two days’ rest.
For the Magic, the under is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 4-1 against the Western Conference, 4-0 against winning teams, 6-0 on Thursdays and 8-1 when playing on two days’ rest. New Orleans has topped the total in eight of its last 10 on Thursday, but otherwise the Hornets are on “under” stretches of 6-0 overall, 4-0 on the road, 5-1 against the Southeast Division and 16-5 when playing on one day of rest.
Finally, the under is 8-1 in the last nine meetings between these squads (4-0 last four).
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
Boston (27-2, 17-12 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (24-5, 12-17 ATS)
The highlight of the NBA’s Christmas Day schedule is this rematch of last year’s NBA Finals, with the Lakers looking to halt the Celtics’ club-record 19-game winning streak in the first of two regular-season meetings between these storied rivals.
Boston rolled to its 19th consecutive victory Tuesday, blasting the 76ers 110-91 as a 13-point home favorite to cap a perfect three-game homestand. The Celtics, who are off to the best start in NBA history for a team with just two losses, have scored in triple digits 13 times during the winning streak, and they’re 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games.
Los Angeles concluded a tough four-game, five-day road trip with Tuesday’s 100-87 upset victory at New Orleans as a 2½-point underdog. That snapped a 10-game ATS slide for the Lakers, who are just 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS) in their last four after starting the season 22-3.
The Celtics knocked off the Lakers in six games back in June en route to their 17th NBA championship. Boston covered in all six games, and also went 2-0 SU and ATS versus L.A. in the regular season, including a 110-91 rout as a three-point road underdog at the Staples Center.
Since suffering a 95-79 loss at Indiana in its first road game back on Nov. 1, Boston has won 10 in a row on the highway (6-4 ATS). Today, the Celtics face a Lakers team that’s 14-1 on its home floor, but only 6-9 ATS, including five straight non-covers at home, all as a favorite.
In addition to its ATS slumps of 1-10 overall and 0-5 at home, Los Angeles is stuck in pointspread slumps of 4-17 against the Eastern Conference, 3-8 versus the Atlantic Division and 0-8 when playing on one day of rest.
Boston is riding a host of positive ATS streaks, including 13-5 overall, 35-17 against the Western Conference, 8-1 versus the Pacific Division, 4-0 on Thursdays, 9-2 when playing on one day of rest and 15-5 against teams with a winning record.
The under is on runs of 13-6 for Boston on the road, 6-2 for Boston on Thursdays, 5-1-1 for Boston against the Western Conference and 13-3 for Los Angeles on Thursdays. Otherwise, though, the Lakers are on “over” stretches of 11-6 overall, 11-3 at home, 10-3 against the Eastern Conference and 6-0 when facing the Atlantic Division. Also, the over is 3-1 in the last four regular-season battles between these teams (2-0 at Staples Center).
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
Jack Jones
Portland -4
Both of these two teams got off to slow starts but have found their stride, it's just I have to lay the small number and take the home team. The Blazers have dominated at home, going 10-2 with an average score of 105.5 to 93.8. That's an impressive spread and they'll be taking on a Dallas team that has been good, but not great on the road this year. Portland is 31-14 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons and 21-9 ATS in home games first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Portland is also 19-7 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
Wunderdog
Dallas at Portland
Pick: Portland -4.5
Dallas is surprisingly playing better on the road this season than at home. But, they face a stiff challenge tonight vs. Portland. The Trailblazers are just 8-9 on the road this season but 10-2 at home, covering the spread 67% of the time. Their offense lights up in this building as they have averaged 105.5 per game in their home games this season. Combined that with the fact that have a very solid defense (93.8 per game allowed), and this Blazers team is very hard to beat at home. Dating back to last season, the Trailblazers are 31-14 ATS at home vs. winning teams. Under Nate McMillan, they are 42-25 ATS in that situation. This season and last they are 12-3 ATS at home in December games. Lay the points on Porltand.
JIM FEIST
DALLAS MAVERICKS / PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
TAKE PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS.
Reason: Dallas is just 3-6 ATS the last nine games, and plays far better at home. Portland is 3-1 SU/ATS the last four games and a sizzling 10-2 at home. LaMarcus Aldridge scored 22 points and Brandon Roy added 19 in Portland's 101-92 win over the Nuggets on Tuesday, while Center Joel Przybilla had 19 rebounds and 10 points. Blazers coach Nate McMillan said, "Being able to play with Phoenix, the Nuggets and Dallas is going to require the same type of basketball, very physical. "They get another chance to beat up a division rival here. Play the Blazers.
Scott Rickenbach
Pick: WIZARDS
Take a look at Washington in this match-up. Cleveland has been a covering machine for some time now. But, after a big win over Houston on Tuesday, I could easily see this as a letdown spot for the Cavaliers. Let's face it, how excited can LeBron James and the Cavs possibly be about facing a struggling Wizards team on Christmas Day. There is really nothing for the Cavaliers to gain from this match-up but, without a doubt, the Wizards will be fired up for a shot to spring a big upset on Christmas Day. Look for Washington to stay inside the big number here and take a look at potentially making a small play on the Wizards plus the big number!
CTO
CONFIDENTIAL TIP-OFF BASKETBALL
*CLEVELAND over Washington (NBA)...Cleveland has been intense in the early going, as LeBron James and his gang have made the moves that might allow them to wrest the Eastern Conference title from Boston. The Cavs covered 17 of their first 20 as a favorite, including a 7-1 mark against “C” teams such as Washington. The added incentive of playing on the big stage of a Christmas Day TNT doubleheader should ensure Cleveland brings its “A” game. Washington’s problems were hardly solved with firing of well-liked HC Eddie Jordan a few weeks ago, and the Cavs have beaten this level of foe by 20 ppg this season. *CLEVELAND 101 - Washington 78 RATING - 10
Tony Karpinski
Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -2
Cleveland has been intense in the early going, as LeBron James and his gang have made the moves that might allow them to take the Eastern Conference title from Boston. The Cavs covered 17 of their first 20 as a favorite, including a 7-1 mark against “C” teams such as Washington. Gonna be hard for the Cavs to get motivated at home against a weak Washington squad. Look for a 7-12 pt game here.
Washington Wizards vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Washington Wizards +15
Cleveland has been intense in the early going, as LeBron James and his gang have made the moves that might allow them to take the Eastern Conference title from Boston. The Cavs covered 17 of their first 20 as a favorite, including a 7-1 mark against “C” teams such as Washington. Gonna be hard for the Cavs to get motivated at home against a weak Washington squad. Look for a 7-12 pt game here.
Tom Freese
Dallas at Portland
Dallas is in a 85-46 ATS Play On System that says to Play On road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after going Under the Total by 42 or more points total in their last 5 games in December. Portland is 3-13 ATS as 3.5 to 10 points and they are 2-8 ATS their last 10 games overall. The Trailblazers are 0-5 ATS off a straight up win and they are 0-5 ATS with one day of rest. PLAY ON DALLAS -
Jeff Benton
The Hornets are a quality team with one of the five best players in the NBA in point guard Chris Paul. But this is a really tough spot for them. Not only are they coming off Tuesday’s disappointing 13-point home loss to the Lakers, but they had to wake up early this morning far away from home on Christmas Day and play a noontime game against one of the NBA’s best teams.
The Magic have won 22 of their last 26 games since starting the season with consecutive losses, including nine of their last 10 and their last five in a row. Also, Orlando has cashed in 12 of its last 14 games (7-1 ATS as a favorite), including eight in a row. Among the teams the Magic have knocked off recently? The Blazers and Jazz on the road and the Spurs and Lakers at home. And if not for a last-second, one-point loss at Phoenix on Dec. 12, Orlando would be riding a 10-game winning streak right now.
New Orleans, which was one of the best teams to back on the road last year, is just 7-4 SU and 5-5-1 ATS on the highway this year. Also, the Hornets are just 1-3 ATS as an underdog this, while Orlando is 6-1 ATS in this price range (a favorite of less than six points). Throw in the fact that the Magic are clicking on offense (106 ppg in their last seven), while the Hornets are in a scoring funk (91 ppg in its last six games), and I’m more than willing to lay a reasonable number with a very, very good home team.
4♦ ORLANDO MAGIC
Matt Rivers
For Christmas Day take the points with the Spurs.
It seems that every time the Suns and Spurs go at it we see another classic battle that goes down the wire and can go either way. So things should change today why?
The Spurs are the same team that we have seen over the past eight or so years. The three headed monster in Duncan, Parker and Ginobili are as professional and talented as they come and certainly wil,l not just get blown out today. Sure Nash, Shaq, Stoudemire and the Suns can still run the floor and score some points but these guys are not the same team as in years past and are pretty much on their last legs. I'm not saying they don't have enough firepower to win this game but San Antonio is probably the better overall team and to get anything with them, even in the Land of the Sun, is more than enough for me.
San Antonio had the rough start to the season thanks partly to injuries to two of their three stars but order has totally been restored as Greg Popovich' boys have been victorious in 16 of their last 21 games. Yes I know they have failed to cover recently as they are on a poor 1-4-1 ATS run but getting points with them, come on!?!?!?
This is a 50-50 game at worst and we're getting some points.OK!
Jake Timlin
Your Thursday selection is the Portland Trailblazers.
Small home number I love for the Trailblazer to end the night a winner. Sure Dallas has won 15 of the last 17 meetings to keep this number under control, but thanks to Portland playing at home where they are 10-2 SU this season there is no pass up on the Trailblazers. I mean despite the Mavericks series domination the last game between these two teams ended in a Portland 3 point win as a 2 point home chalk. Well similar to the last game played between these two look for a tight game, but one where Portland pulls out a narrow cover win late. All Portland minus the chalk!
Tony Weston
How easy was that winner on the Notre Dame-Hawaii Over? Well, the teams put up the points just as we said in this spot yesterday.
We came through easily with the Over and we’re coming through with another winner tonight as we’re switching to The Association and taking the Cleveland Cavaliers at home against the visiting Washington Wizards.
For the season not only have the Cleveland Cavaliers been one of the best SU teams, but they have been THE best money maker, going an NBA-best 22-6 ATS this year to go along with their 24-4 SU record.
At home Cleveland has been dominant, going 12-2 ATS and beating down opponents by an average score of 105.9-89.3.
Now they battle a Wizards team that’s on a seven-game SU and ATS losing streak and is 9-17 ATS overall this season, including a 4-7 ATS mark on the road. In that seven-game losing streak Washington has gone 0-3 SU and ATS on the road, losing at Charlotte, Detroit and Philadelphia by an average of 12.3 points per game.
Also consider that Cleveland is 5-2 ATS its last seven games against the Wizards, including their last meeting on May 2 where the Cavaliers destroyed Washington 105-88 as a 3-point underdog.
The Cavaliers will continue to dominate and beat down the Wizards. Take Cleveland at home tonight.
3♦ CAVALIERS
Karl Garrett
New Orleans +4 at ORLANDO
Going early this Christmas Day, take the points with New Orleans over Orlando.
I don't see the Hornets getting blasted in this spot, and catching a few baskets is A-OK with me!
Both teams have been on tears, but it is the season series numbers that are most definitely tilted in the underdogs favor, as the dog in this series is on an 8-0-1 against the spread run the last 9 meetings.
The Magic is 12-3 at home this year, including 7 straight home wins with a 5-2 spread mark, but the Hornets do counter with a 7-4 road mark, and have covered in 6 of their 11 on the highway.
Get Christmas Day started with an underdog winner on New Orleans plus the points.
3♦ NEW ORLEANS
Drew Gordon
New Orleans at ORLANDO -4
Nice spot for a surging Orlando team at home on Christmas, as the Hornets come into this game off a loss to the Lakers with the Rockets on deck Friday. In other words, I'm concerned about New Orleans focus here, and we know just how nasty this Orlando team can be at home. But that's hardly the only reason to like O-Town this afternoon...
While both teams are clearly in the top-tier of the NBA's elite, I believe Orlando has been flying nicely under the radar all season, going an impressive 12-2 ATS over their last 14 games overall! New Orleans meanwhile, has been the public darling ever since they emerged behind Chris Paul last season, and Vegas has made their backers pay for it, going just 10-12-2 ATS on the season!
From a match up standpoint, the possible absence of Stojakovic isn't terrible, but he's definately more consistent than Rasual Butler, who can disappear at times. Other than that, the Magic's starting 5 matches up particularly well with New Orleans, as no one can stop Howard, while Nelson, Turkoglu, and Lewis are all playing extremely well right now. In the end, the Magic will circle the wagons at home, getting the solid win and cover in this afternoon showdown.
Take Orlando over New Orleans in this NBA match up.
2♦ ORLANDO
Michael Cannon
New Orleans +4' at ORLANDO
Take the points with the Hornets this afternoon on the road against the Magic.
New Orleans has won four of its last five, seven of nine and 11 of its last 14. They have gone 8-5-1 ATS during that stretch.
The Hornets have held eight of their last nine opponents under triple digits and are allowing just 89.9 ppg during that stretch.
The underdog is on an 8-0-1 ATS roll in the last nine meetings between these two and the visitor is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 matchups. New Orleans is also on a 5-0-1 ATS run in its last six trips to Orlando.
Take the points with the Hornets as they keep this one within the number.
2♦ NEW ORLEANS