Thursday Service Plays

Lenny Del Genio

Michigan St. at Georgia
Prediction: Georgia

What we will do is look at one of the five College Bowl games on New Years Day. The Capital One Bowl has traditionally been one of the better non-BCS bowl games through the years, offering a large payout and a Big Ten vs. SEC matchup.

Unfortunately, this conference pairing has not been favorable for the Big Ten. Just ask Ohio State. That being said the Big 10 has won this game four straight years, including Michigans outright win over Florida last year! However, the Big 10 is already off to a poor start this bowl season, losing both games as of press. Wisconsin was embarrassed by Florida State, Northwestern let one get away against a disinterested Missouri team. Perhaps no team in the country struggles more in step up games than does Michigan State, who was outscored 94-25 by Ohio State and Penn State in two humiliating losses this year.

The Spartans are overrated when it comes to rushing the football. In six games vs. bowl opponents, they were outrushed by a 1165-412 margin! Knowshon Moreno will outclass Javon Ringer here and Georgia will outsclass Michigan State. Since 1992, UGA has covered 19 of 24 non-conference games outside of Athens.

Bob Harvey

Penn St. @ USC Under 45.5

I can hear the voice of the retired Keith Jackson right now in that deep and distinctive voice “It’s the Granddaddy of ‘em all”.

That’s the truth. In fact USC beat Penn State 14-3 in 1923 in what was then called the Tournament of Roses game. Fast forward to January 1, 2009. This years Rose Bowl games features #4 USC again #6 Penn State. The pressure is on the Trojans who are making their fourth straight Rose Bowl appearance. They’re favored by nine points in what is virtually a home game for them. An SC victory would give the Pac-Ten a perfect 5-0 record in the post-season.

Both teams were one score shy from playing for the national title. USC had its annual clunker against Oregon State while Penn State lost to Iowa on a last second field goal. Defenses are likely to dominate today. The Trojan D headed by future NFL stars Rey Maualuga, Brian Cushing and Taylor Mays allowed the fewest points per game in the nation at 7.8 ppg No team has given up fewer points or total yards per game (206.1). The average of 122.8 passing yards allowed is particularly impressive because it’s nearly 37 better than any other team even though most of USC’s opponents had to throw a lot after falling well behind.

Don’t sell the Nittany Lions short went talking about defense. Penn State has been tough to score on as well allowing just 12.4 ppg. I’m already thinking UNDER!. I do share the belief of that a good defense will beat a good offense (unless that offense is Oklahoma's).

On offense Penn State is averaging just over 40 points and USC 37.5. Both players have talented QB’ in Daryl Clark and Mark Sanchez. Clark has completed 60 percent of his passes for 2,139 yards. He’s also thrown for 17 touchdowns vs. just four picks.

If your a “stataholic” you’ll need these impressive numbers. Trojan signal-caller Mark Sanchez had a 159.1 quarterback rating, throwing for 30 touchdowns and 2,794 yards.Whether he’ll have the time to throw is another question. The rushing games are good for both teams. Penn States Evan Royster has gained 1,202 yards this season while the “tailback by committee” which includes Joe McKnight, Stafon Johnson and C.J. Gable have combined to rush for 1,892 yards and 19 TD’s.

The two teams had one common opponent this year- Oregon State. The Nittany Lions destroyed the Beavers 45-14 back in September.

If your looking at which team is hotter coming into this years game, USC has won nine straight and that includes three shutouts and only one game in which their defense allowed more than ten points.
The line opened at USC -9 ½ and is still in that general vicinity. The total is set at 45 ½.

70 degree temperatures, clear skies and a light breeze are forecast for Pasadena. It will be one of those chamber of commerce days that will get everyone in cold weather destinations.

USC’s defense is playing for a place in history, More than a few College experts believe that if the Trojans can put the clamps on Penn State’s spread offense, these Trojan defenders could go down as one of the best squads ever. They’ll be ready and while a shutout probably isn’t in the cards, Penn State will be lucky to score 17. Take this game to go UNDER the total. USC wins and covers giving the big ten another post-season spanking.

Marc Lawrence

Play On: Villanova

The Wildcats take on the Eagles in a Big East battle Milwaukee with double revenge on their minds from losses suffered each of the last two seasons against Marquette. With the Eagles having covered the number only once in six home games this season, look for Villanova to get their piece of revenge here this afternoon.

Nelly

Iowa - over South Carolina

If not for a three game slide early in the year Iowa might have made a dent in the Big Ten and national picture. Iowa lost just four games this season by a combined total of just 12 points and the Hawkeyes feature one of the top running backs in the nation with Shonn Green topping 1,700 yards this season. Iowa was the only team to beat Penn State this year and the Hawkeyes finished the year with great defensive numbers. Iowa has averaged over 30 points scored per game this season while allowing less than 14 points per game. South Carolina also features a very tough defense that gets very little accolade. The Gamecocks lost five games, all to bowl teams and allowed just 288 yards per game with outstanding numbers against the pass. Iowa’s offense has given far more signs of life however as South Carolina is scoring just 21 points per game. The SC offensive line has not been strong this season, allowing over three sacks per game and leading one of the nation’s worst rushing attacks. Iowa is just 2-3 in the last five bowl games but the Hawkeyes have faced national power after national power and played as an underdog in each game, facing USC, Florida, LSU, Florida, and Texas in the five straight years before failing to qualify for the postseason last year. In a much more favorable bowl match-up the Hawkeyes should outlast South Carolina as the Gamecocks have struggled in two bowl appearances under Coach Spurrier, allowing a combined total of 74 points.

SPORTS ADVISORS

OUTBACK BOWL

Iowa (8-4, 6-4 ATS) vs. South Carolina (7-5, 6-5 ATS) (at Tampa, Fla.)

Two teams returning to the postseason after a one-year hiatus hook up at Raymond James Stadium, as South Carolina matches up against Iowa for the first time ever.

The Hawkeyes closed the regular season with a flourish, winning three in a row and five of their last six while also going 6-3 ATS down the stretch. Iowa, which was the only team to beat Penn State (24-23 as a 7½-point home underdog), capped things off with an impressive 55-0 rout of Minnesota as a seven-point road chalk, as star RB Shonn Green ran for 144 yards and two TDs. Against the Gophers, Iowa finished with massive advantages in first downs (23-6), total yards (483-134), rushing yards (222-7) and time of possession (37:37-22:23), and they also won the turnover battle, 3-0.

South Carolina followed up a 6-1 run (4-2 ATS) by closing the regular season with a pair of blowout losses at Florida (56-6 as a 21-point underdog) and at Clemson (31-14 as a one-point underdog). Prior to those two contests, the Gamecocks’ defense had led the charge all season, allowing 24 points or less in the team’s first 10 games, including limiting six foes to 17 points or less.

Both squads are making their third appearance in the Outback Bowl. Iowa played Florida both times, winning 37-17 as a 3½-point underdog in 2003, but losing two to the Gators years later 31-24 in a pick-em contest. Meanwhile, South Carolina beat Ohio State in consecutive years in 2000 and 2001.

Under coach Kirk Ferentz, the Hawkeyes are 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS in bowl games (2-1 SU and ATS versus SEC foes), but they weren’t favored in any of those contests. In its last bowl appearance, Iowa lost to Texas 26-24 as a nine-point underdog in the Alamo Bowl. South Carolina is 1-1 SU and ATS in the postseason since coach Steve Spurrier arrived, including a 44-36 victory over Houston as a 4½-point favorite in the 2006 Liberty Bowl. Spurrier has a 7-7 SU and ATS bowl record in his coaching career.

Iowa averaged just 16.8 points in its first four games against Division I foes, but put up 34.7 ppg during its season-ending 5-1 run, and for the season the Hawkeyes churned out 374.2 total yards per game (189.7 rushing ypg). Green set a school record with 1,729 rushing yards, which ranked second in the nation, and he averaged 6.2 yards per carry and rushed for 17 TDs. QB Ricky Stanzi had a decent year, completing 58.3 percent of his passes for 1,809 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs, with his best performance coming in the season finale against Minnesota (255 passing yards, 3 TDs, no INTs).

South Carolina’s offense was spotty all season, producing 17 points or fewer five times in 12 games and averaging just 21.7 points and 316.8 total yards per contest (98.3 rushing ypg). QBs Chris Smelley and Stephen Garcia split time under center and neither was spectacular, combining to complete less than 56 percent of their passes for a total of 2,496 yards with 19 TDs and 20 INTs.

Because if its late-season implosions against Florida and Clemson, the Gamecocks’ defense ended up allowing 20.2 ppg, but they ranked 11th in the nation in total defense at 289.1 ypg (128.7 rushing ypg). Meanwhile, Iowa ranked eighth in scoring defense (13.3 ppg), 12th in total defense (289.5 ypg) and 10th in rushing defense (98.3 ypg). The Hawkeyes posted two shutouts, allowed less than 10 points five times and did not give up more than 27 points all season.

In addition to its ongoing 6-3 ATS streak, Iowa is on pointspread runs of 5-2 against winning teams, 4-1 when playing on grass and 12-4 when favored by 3½ to 10 points. However, the Hawkeyes are just 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 as a favorite of any price, 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a victory and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after a non-cover. The Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on Thursday, but 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine as an underdog (1-3-1 ATS as a pup this season) and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 versus teams with a winning record.

The over is on runs of 5-2 for South Carolina overall, 4-1 for South Carolina against winning teams, 4-1-1 for Iowa overall and 6-1 for Iowa when favored by 3½ to 10 points. However, the under is on streaks of 5-1 for the Gamecocks in non-conference play, 10-1 for Iowa in non-league action and 19-8 for Iowa on grass.

ATS ADVANTAGE: IOWA

GATOR BOWL

Clemson (7-5, 4-6 ATS) vs. Nebraska (8-4, 6-6 ATS) (at Jacksonville, Fla.)

Nebraska and Clemson each bring three-game winning streaks and new coaches into Municipal Stadium in the annual Big 12/ACC Gator Bowl clash.

The Huskers, playing under first-year coach Bo Pelini, ripped off three straight wins to start the season, then dropped three in a row before closing on a 5-1 spurt (3-3 ATS), including a three-game season-ending winning streak (2-1 ATS). Nebraska put up 30-plus points in all but two of its games this season, including averaging 47 ppg in its final three victories over Kansas (45-35), Kansas State (56-28) and Colorado (40-31).

Clemson entered this year as the odds-on favorite to win the ACC, but it opened with a 34-10 loss to Alabama as a four-point favorite and lost its first four games against Division I-A competition, leading to the forced resignation of coach Tommy Bowden. Assistant coach Dabo Swinney took over on an interim basis and led the Tigers to a 4-1 SU and ATS finish to earn the head job full time. During its three-game SU and ATS winning streak to close the season, Clemson outscored Duke, Virginia and South Carolina by a combined tally of 75-24.

This is the first meeting between these schools since the 1981 Orange Bowl, which Clemson won 22-15 as a four-point underdog to capture the national championship. While the Huskers are making their first trip to the Gator Bowl, this is the Tigers’ ninth appearance in this game (4-4 SU in the previous eight).

Clemson is 15-15 SU all-time in bowl games, losing to Auburn 23-20 as a 1½-point favorite in last year’s Chick-fil-A Bowl in Atlanta. Nebraska is also dead-even in the postseason at 22-22 SU, and its last bowl appearance also was a three-point loss to Auburn (17-14 as a 1½-point underdog in the Cotton Bowl following the 2006 season).

The Tigers had an up-and-down season offensively, scoring 27 points or more seven times – including in four of the last five games – but they were held to 17 or less five times. Clemson finished averaging 25.5 points and 339.3 total yards per game (120.5 rushing ypg). The running back tandem of James Davis (725 yards, 11 TDs) and CJ Spiller (612 yards, 7 TDs) did the bulk of the damage, as QB Cullen Harper (11 TDs, 12 INTs) had an erratic senior season.

Neraska averaged 36.2 points and 458.2 total yards per outing, including 173.8 rushing yards per game. Senior QB Joe Ganz (69.2 percent completion rate, 3,329 yards, 23 TDs, 10 INTs; 257 rushing yards, 5 TDs) had an outstanding season, though it was lost in the mix compared with other standout Big 12 QBs. Along with Ganz, tailbacks Roy Helu Jr. (804 yards, 7 TDs) and Marlon Lucky (517 yards, 7 TDs) carried the load on the ground.

The Tigers have a huge edge defensively, allowing just 16.6 points and 294.8 total yards per game, which ranked 10th and 16th in the nation, respectively. Only two of the 10 Division I-A opponents Clemson faced – Alabama (34 points) and Florida State (41) – scored more than 21 points. Meanwhile, Nebraska suffered from playing in the explosive Big 12, giving up per-game averages of 29.2 points and 361.5 total yards per game, but only 128 rushing ypg.

Nebraska went 3-1 ATS on the highway this year, but is mired in ATS funks of 3-8 as an underdog, 2-5 in non-conference play, 4-11 against winning teams and 2-11 after a SU win. Meanwhile, although Clemson cashed in four of its last five overall, it also carries a slew of negative ATS trends, including 1-4 in bowl games, 0-4 as a favorite in bowl games, 3-7 as a favorite overall, 2-6 in non-conference play, 2-7 against winning teams, 3-7 on grass and 3-7 on Thursdays.

The Tigers carry nothing but “under” streaks into this contest, including 10-3 overall (7-3 this year), 13-6 in non-league action, 4-0 in bowl games, 9-1 as a favorite, 6-1 on Thursdays and 8-2 on grass. The under is also 4-1 in the Huskers’ last five bowl games and 6-2 in its last eight on grass, though Nebraska did top the total in its last four regular-season games.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

CAPITAL ONE BOWL

(19) Michigan State (9-3, 6-5-1 ATS) vs. (16) Georgia (9-3, 3-8 ATS) (at Orlando, Fla.)

Georgia, which entered the season with national championship aspirations, has to settle for its fifth New Year’s Day or beyond bowl game in the last six years when it takes on Michigan State, which is making its second straight postseason appearance at Citrus Bowl Stadium.

The Bulldogs were the preseason No. 1 team in the nation and started out 4-0 (2-1 ATS), but their season got derailed in a 41-30 home loss to Alabama in Week 5 as a 6½-point favorite. After rebounding to win its next three, Georgia closed the regular season by going 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS, with the losses coming against Florida (49-10 as a 7½-point underdog) and Georgia Tech (45-42 as a 7½-point home favorite in the finale).

Michigan State enjoyed a breakthrough season under second-year coach Mark Dantonio. After a 38-31 loss at Cal to begin the year, the Spartans won nine of their final 11 games, the only losses coming against Ohio State at home (45-7) and at Penn State in the season finale (49-18). Seven of Michigan State’s nine wins were by double digits.

The only previous meeting between these schools came in the 1989 Gator Bowl, which Georgia won 34-27 in a pick-em situation. The Bulldogs are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS against the Big Ten in bowl games since 1988, and under coach Mark Richt, they’re 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in the postseason, including last year’s 41-10 rout of unbeaten Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl, cashing as a nine-point favorite.

Dantonio led Michigan State to the Champ Sports Bowl at Citrus Bowl Stadium last year, losing 24-21 to Boston College but cashing as a five-point underdog. This is just the second bowl appearance for the Spartans since 2001.

Michigan State averaged 26.2 points and 351.7 total yards per game, including 137.6 rushing ypg. RB Javon Ringer led the NCAA with 370 carries, ranked fourth in rushing yards with 1,590 (4.3 per carry) and had 15 TDs. However, senior QB Brian Hoyer was erratic all season, completing less than 51 percent of his passes for 2,236 yards with eight TDs offset by eight INTs.

Georgia’s offense was paced by the air and ground attack of QB Matthew Stafford (61.1 percent completion rate, 3,209 yards, 22 TDs, eight INTs) and RB Knowshon Moreno (1,338 rushing yards, 5.9 ypc, 16 TDs). The Bulldogs scored 42 or more in three of their last five contests.

The Spartans allowed 22 points and 358.3 yards per game on defense, including a whopping 147.7 rushing ypg (4.2 per carry). Georgia surrendered 25.6 points and 318.3 total ypg, including 130 rushing ypg (3.8 per carry). However, while the Bulldogs gave up 17 points or fewer seven times, they allowed an average of 42.2 ppg in their other five contests, going 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS in those games. In fact, in its final five outings, Georgia yielded 28 points or more four times.

Michigan State is 6-0 ATS in its last six after a non-cover, but it is 7-13 ATS in its last 20 games following an outright defeat, 0-5 ATS against teams with a winning record this season and 0-3 ATS as an underdog in 2007. Georgia is on ATS streaks of 7-3 in bowl games, 5-2 in January, 4-1 at neutral sites, 4-1 against non-conference foes and 4-0 on Thursdays. However, the Bulldogs are in pointspread funks of 1-7 overall, 0-6 as a favorite, 1-6 after a SU loss and 1-5 against winning teams.

The over is on runs of 4-1 overall (all on grass), 4-1 for Georgia in bowl games, 7-2 for Georgia at neutral sites and 4-0 for Georgia against winning teams. The over is also 4-2 in Michigan State’s last six overall, 37-16-2 in its last 55 as an underdog and 5-1 in its last six after an outright loss.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

ROSE BOWL

(6) Penn State (11-1, 8-3 ATS) vs. (5) USC (11-1, 6-6 ATS) (at Pasadena, Calif.)

USC, which entered this season with its sights set on the BCS Championship Game, instead makes its fourth consecutive appearance in the Rose Bowl as it battles Penn State, which is making just second-ever trip to Pasadena.

The Trojans appeared on their way to a shot at the national title after opening the season with convincing wins over Virginia (52-7 as a 21-point road favorite) and then-fifth-ranked Ohio State (35-3 as a 10½-point home chalk). However, 10 days after the rout of the Buckeyes, USC’s dream season came unraveled in a stunning 27-21 loss at Oregon State as a 24½-point road favorite, as the Trojans fell behind 21-0 at halftime and couldn’t recover.

After the loss at Oregon State, Pete Carroll’s team bounced back to win its final nine in a row (5-4 ATS), with its top-ranked defense carrying the team, allowing a total of 56 points during the nine-game winning streak (6.2 ppg). Aside from Oregon State, the only other team to come within 14 points of USC was Arizona, which lost 17-10 at home as a 15-point underdog. The Trojans ended the regular season with dominating wins over rivals Notre Dame (38-3 at home) and UCLA (28-7 at the Rose Bowl), but they finished just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 (1-3 ATS last four).

Penn State opened with nine straight victories, the ninth being a hard-fought 13-6 victory at then-No. 10 Ohio State. However, like USC, the Nittany Lions failed to capitalize on the win over the Buckeyes, as they went to Iowa the following week and squandered a nine-point fourth-quarter lead, losing 24-23 as a 7½-point chalk when the Hawkeyes made a last-second field goal.

Despite the stunning loss at Iowa, Penn State was able to secure its second Big Ten Championship as it closed with blowout home wins and spread-covers over Indiana and No. 17 Michigan State by the combined tally of 83-25. With the exception of the victory over Ohio State, Penn State’s other 10 wins were by point margins of 56, 31, 42, 42, 14, 14, 41, 29, 27 and 31.

Since Paterno took over at Penn State, the Nittany Lions and Trojans have hooked up seven times, with Penn State holding a 4-3 SU and ATS edge. The most recent meeting came in the 2000 Kickoff Classic, which USC won 29-5 as a two-point underdog.

USC, which is the only team to have qualified for a BCS game seven straight years, owns a record 23 Rose Bowl wins in 33 previous appearances. That includes last year’s 49-17 rout of Illinois as a 13-point favorite and a 32-18 thumping of Michigan as a 1½-point underdog the previous season. Since Carroll took over as coach, the Trojans are 5-2 SU and ATS in bowl games, including 2-1 SU and ATS in Pasadena, the loss coming to Texas in the 2006 national championship game.

Paterno owns the best bowl record in NCAA history at 23-10-1 (21-9-1 ATS), including last year’s 24-17 Alamo Bowl win over Texas A&M as a five-point favorite. In their only previous trip to the Rose Bowl, the Nittany Lions capped an undefeated 1994 season by routing Oregon 38-20 as a 17-point favorite.

The Trojans ranked in the top 20 in the nation in scoring offense (37.5 ppg, 14th), total offense (452.8 ypg, 13th) and rushing offense (206.6 ypg, 17th). Junior QB Mark Sanchez completed 64.4 percent of his passes for 2,794 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs. His top receiving targets – Damian Williams and Patrick Turner – combined for 93 receptions for 1,374 yards and 18 TDs, while a trio of tailbacks (Joe McKnight, Stafon Johnson and C.J. Gable) all rushed for between 604 and 646 yards, accounting for 19 rushing touchdowns.

While USC’s offense was sporadic at times, its defense came to play every week and led the nation in points allowed (7.8 per game), total yards allowed (206) and passing yards allowed (122.8), and it ranked fifth nationally in rushing defense (83.2 ypg). Only two teams (Oregon State and Stanford) scored more than 10 points against the Trojans, with eight opponents being held to a touchdown or less.

Penn State scored 45 points or more seven times and finished averaging 40.2 points, 452.2 total yards and 211.7 rushing yards per game, figures that ranked 11th, 14th and 13th nationally. Dual-threat QB Daryll Clark connected on 60 percent of his passes for 2,319 yards with 17 TDs and just four INTs, while adding 265 rushing yards and nine scores on the ground. Along with Clark, RB Evan Royster (1,202 yards, 6.5 ypc, 12 TDs) paced the ground attack, while Deon Butler (43 catches, 713 yards, 7 TDs) was the leading receiver.

Though not quite as prolific as USC’s defense, Penn State’s stop unit was very stout, ranking third in scoring defense (12.4 ppg), fifth in total defense (264 ypg), ninth in rushing defense (96 ypg) and 11th in passing defense (168 ypg). Only two opponents – Illinois (24) and Iowa (24) – scored more than 17 points against the Nittany Lions, who allowed 10 points or less six times.

USC, which was a double-digit favorite in every game this season, is just 11-17-1 ATS in its last 29 laying big chalk. Also, the Trojans went 1-4 ATS this year as a road favorite and they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven games on grass. However, they’re on positive ATS streaks of 8-0 against the Big Ten, 22-6 in non-conference action, 6-1 in January, 5-1 in bowl games, 4-1 as a bowl chalk and 13-5 against teams with a winning record.

Penn State has been a double-digit pup just once since 2004, losing 28-6 at Ohio State as a 17-point underdog in 2006, and the Lions have failed to cash in five of their last six as a ‘dog of any price. Otherwise, though, Penn State is on ATS runs of 8-3-1 overall, 5-0 in non-Big Ten play and 5-1 when coming off a victory of more than 20 points.

The Nittany Lions are on under stretches of 5-1 in boll games and 4-1 as an underdog, but the over is 4-1 in their last five games on grass. Meanwhile, USC is on under steaks of 22-8-1 overall, 21-7-1 as a favorite, 5-2 against the Big Ten, 22-5-1 on grass and 5-0 versus winning teams, but the over is 4-0 in the Trojans’ last four bowl games.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

ORANGE BOWL

(21) Virginia Tech (9-4, 5-7 ATS) vs. (12) Cincinnati (10-2, 6-6 ATS) (at Miami, Fla.)

Cincinnati, which set a school record for victories and captured its first Big East conference title, appears its first BCS Bowl when it takes on ACC champion Virginia Tech in the 75th anniversary of the Orange Bowl at Dolphin Stadium.

The Bearcats ended the regular-season on a five-game winning streak (4-2 ATS), with four of those wins coming against Big East foes South Florida, West Virginia, Louisville and Syracuse. After wrapping up the conference crown, Cincinnati trekked to Hawaii for a non-conference game and staged a big fourth-quarter rally to pull out a 29-24 victory as a 7½-point road favorite. The Bearcats scored between 24 and 30 points during the six-game run.

The Hokies started off with a surprising 27-22 loss to East Carolina as a nine-point road favorite, but rebounded to win their next five in a row (2-2 ATS in lined actin). After a 1-3 mini-slump in the middle of the year, Va-Tech closed on a three-game winning streak, including a 30-12 rout of Boston College as a one-point favorite in the ACC Championship game Dec. 6. In capturing its second straight league title, Frank Beamer’s offense mustered just 234 yards against B.C. and committed three turnovers, but the defense allowed only 308 total yards (45 rushing) and forced four turnovers.

These teams last met in 2006, with the Hokies rolling to a 29-13 home victory, but failing to cash as a hefty 27½-point favorite. The all-time series is tied 4-4, with the Bearcats going 5-2 ATS in lined games.

Cincinnati, which is in its second season under coach Brian Kelly, won its bowl games the last two years, beating Southern Miss 31-21 in last year’s PapaJohn’s Bowl and knocking off Western Michigan in the 2006 International Bowl, but the Bearcats failed to cover as a favorite in both contests. Cincy is 5-4 all-time in bowls (2-5 ATS).

The Hokies are riding a 16-year bowl streak, and this is their fifth BCS appearance, including their second consecutive trip to the Orange Bowl. However, Virginia Tech is just 6-9 SU and ATS in bowl games under Beamer, including 0-4 SU and ATS in BCS games and 0-2 SU and ATS in the Orange Bowl. Last year, the Hokies took on Kansas at Dolphin Stadium and fell 24-21 as a three-point favorite. That result made the underdog 5-1 ATS in Va-Tech’s last six bowl contests

Virginia Tech had one of the weakest offenses in the country, averaging only 22.2 points and 296.5 total yards per game, including 128.2 passing ypg, and the Hokies scored 20 or less six times. Senior Sean Glennon (a drop-back passer) and sophomore Tyrod Taylor (a mobile QB) split time under center, combining to pass for 1,539 yards with just five TD passes and 11 INTs. Taylor was the team’s second leading rusher (691 yards, six TDs), while Darren Evans (1,112 yards, 10 TDs) carried most of the load on the ground.

The Hokies compensated for a sluggish offense with a rock-solid stop unit that ranked 13th in scoring defense (17.5 ppg), seventh in total defense (277.2 ypg), 17th in rushing defense (107 ypg) and 13th in passing defense (170.2 ypg). Virginia Tech held eight opponents – including each of the last five – to 17 points or less.

Cincinnati, which put up 27.3 points and 375.4 yards per game (121.3 rushing ypg), prevailed in the Big East despite dealing with numerous quarterback injuries. Tony Pike got the majority of snaps and completed 63 percent of his tosses for 2,169 yards with 18 TDs and 7 INTs. Jacob Ramsey (630 yards, 2 TDs) and John Goebel (581 yards, 7 TDs) paced the ground attack, helping to open things up for top WR targets Marshwan Gilyard (74 catches, 1,118 yards, 10 TDs) and Dominick Goodman (78 catches, 977 yards, 7 TDs).

Defensively, Cincinnati ranked in the top 30 nationally in scoring defense (20.2 ppg, 28th), total defense (316 ypg, 26th) and rushing defense (103.8 ypg, 12th). The only two foes to score more than 23 points against the Bearcats were Oklahoma (52) and Connecticut (40).

Virginia Tech is on ATS runs of 23-9 away from home, 10-3 as a road underdog since 2005, 14-4 on Thursdays, 23-11 following a spread-cover and 5-2 against winning teams. However, the Hokies have failed to cash in eight of their last nine non-ACC contests.

The Bearcats are 9-3-1 ATS against ranked teams over the last three seasons, including 3-1 SU and ATS this year. They’re also 5-1 ATS in their last six games on Thursday, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 on grass and 4-1 in their last five versus winning teams. However, Cincinnati has failed to cash in four straight games as a favorite.

The under is on runs of 4-1 for Virginia Tech overall, 4-1 for Virginia Tech in January, 4-1 for Virginia Tech on grass, 7-3 for Virginia Tech after a SU win, 5-1 for Cincy in bowl games and 7-0 for Cincy when playing on Thursday.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Jeff Benton

For your free play in New Year’s Day bowl action, we’ll lay the small points with Iowa against South Carolina in the Outback Bowl.

These two squads went in completely opposite directions at the end of the season. Iowa won three in a row and five and six – including a 55-0 destruction of Minnesota in the season finale and a 24-23 upset of No. 2 Penn State – while also going 5-2 ATS in its last seven. Conversely, South Carolina dropped three of its last five SU and ATS, including season-ending no-shows against Clemson (31-14 loss) and Florida (56-3 loss) on the road.

Also, Iowa scored at least 22 points in every game during its 5-1 finish to the season (average of 36.7 ppg), and its defense was stout all year, ranking in the top 12 in points allowed (13.3 per game), total yards allowed (289.5 per game) and rushing yards allowed (98.3 per game). Today, that Hawkeyes’ defense goes up against an anemic Gamecocks offense that averaged only 21.7 points and 316.8 yards per game, including just 18.4 points and 311 yards per game (77.8 rushing) in its last three. Also, Steve Spurrier’s QB tandem of Chris Smelley and Stephen Garcia barely completed 55 percent of their passes and threw more INTs (20) than TDs (19).

And while South Carolina’s defense was solid for the first two months of the season, it fell apart down the stretch against Arkansas, Florida and Clemson, giving up 108 total points. Most disturbingly for Gamecock fans, the defense got steamrolled for 195 rushing ypg in those three games. Why is that a concern today? Because they have to try to stop the best RB in the nation in Iowa’s Shone Green, who had a school-record 1,729 rushing yards (5.2 per carry) and 17 TDs!

Finally, while South Carolina had been a strong underdog play in Spurrier’s first few seasons, that’s not the case anymore. The Gamecocks are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine as a short, including 1-3-1 ATS this year. Ride the squad with the better offense, the more consistent defense and more momentum, and that’s Iowa.

5♦ IOWA

SportsInsights

Michigan State vs Georgia

Michigan State doesn’t want the bad taste from their regular season finale loss to Penn State to linger in their mouth all off-season. The Spartans offensive star feels like it is his role to make that happen. Tailback Javon Ringer rushed for 1,590 yards on the season, but only 42 yards against the Nittany Lions with the Big Ten title on the line. The MSU passing attack has had problems keeping defenses honest this season, as quarterback Brian Hoyer barely completed 50% of his passes on the season. The Spartans will get their best wideout Mark Dell back after the sophomore missed time at the end of the season. Michigan State’s defense has had problems stopping elite running backs this season, and that could be a problem in the Capital One Bowl as they face Georgia’s Knowshown Moreno.

When the season kicked off, Georgia was hoping to appear in Florida for a January bowl game. The Capital One Bowl wasn’t what they had in mind when they were ranked No. 1 in the pre-season. They are also coming off a disappointing 45-42 loss to in-state rival Georgia Tech, in which they allowed 409 rushing yards. The Bulldogs defense had been solid against the run, as they finished the season allowing an average of 129.9 yards per game including the effort against the Yellow Jackets. The offense features one of the most talented groups of position players in the country in quarterback Matthew Stafford, tailback Knowshown Moreno, and wide receiver A.J. Green. The Bulldogs are averaging 32.1 points per game.

The Bulldogs opened as 5.5-point favorites at 5Dimes and many other books tracked by Sports Insights. They are receiving huge backing with 81% of the public spread bets. That huge backing mage the line jump to Georgia -8 a few days later. Since then the line has dipped back down to Georgia -7.5 at 5Dimes. It also saw this later dip and many other books. That triggered a few Smart Money plays on the Spartans, including at BetOnline (37-23, +10.22 units) and 5Dimes (85-69, +7.71 units). We're following the Smart Money and looking for some favorable underdog lines like the Michigan State +8.5

Michigan State +8.5

Penn State vs Southern Cal

Penn State comes into the Rose Bowl as Big Ten Champions in what many people consider a down year for the conference. That doesn’t mean Penn State isn’t one of the top teams in the country, as they dominate on both sides of the ball. The rushing attack is led by sophomore tailback Evan Royster, who rushed for over 1,200 yards on the season. Quarterback Daryll Clark completed over 60% of his passes while throwing to a talented trio of senior wide receivers. Deon Butler, Derrick Williams and Jordan Norwood combined to make 121 receptions. The Nittany Lions defense is also strong, allowing only 12.4 points per game, while giving up an average of 263.9 yards.

As good as Penn State is, Southern Cal is slightly better on the stat sheet. The Trojans rank first nationally in four defensive categories, including scoring defense (7.8 points per game) and total defense (206.1 yards per game). The Trojans utilize a traditional pro-style offense led by quarterback Mark Sanchez, who threw for 30 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. USC uses a trio of running backs to complement Sanchez, highlighted by sophomore Joe McKnight. The Trojans will be without versatile fullback Stanley Havili, and offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian left before The Rose Bowl to take the head coach position at the University of Washington.

Southern Cal opened as double-digit favorites at most books tracked by Sports Insights, including USC -10.5 at Pinnacle. The Trojans are receiving almost two-thirds of the public spread bets at 64%. Despite this backing, the line has moved in the other direction to USC -8 at Pinnacle. There is still some variation in the line across the marketplace, ranging from an 8-point spread to a 10-point spread. Leading up to the game a Steam Move was triggered at Bet Jamaica (125-100, +13.3 units) on the Nittany Lions. We think these two teams are pretty evenly matched, so we think getting either team with 10 points is the way to go. We'll take Joe Pa and Penn State with the points.

Penn State +10

Bettorsworld

3* Iowa -3.5 over South Carolina

Sure you'll hear how the Big 10 was down this year and how they are playing an SEC team and how South Carolina had a big team meeting recently to get hyped up for the bowl game, but sometimes you just have to look at a game and take the team that the numbers say is the better of the two. Oh, and while the Big 10 may be down, the SEC wasn't exactly "up" this year.

South Carolina was a team that turned the ball over way too often this year. They finished the year at 101 out of 119 on the turnover margin chart which places them among the worst in the entire nation at -9 while Iowa was in the top 30 at +6. Honestly folks, that stat alone is enough to warrant a play on a Bowl game but there's more. Iowa's yards per point numbers were fantastic. Rounding off, they finished the year with a 12 on offense and a 22 on defense for a +10 margin while South Carolina struggled offensively with a 14.5 and was below average defensively with a 14. Also note that South Carolina had a defensive number in road games of 11 which is atrocious. Iowa also managed to knock off Penn State this year while South Carolina failed against every big time opponent they faced.

3* Penn State +10 over USC

10 was widely available until it moved across the board. If the 10 doesn't appear again, go ahead and buy it. We still like the game at + 9 however. For that matter, anyone who likes Penn State here should like them to win it straight up making the points a bonus, which we think will be the case. We're well aware of the Big 10 shortcomings and the "weak" schedule arguments, and hey, we've seen the Big 10 get blown out in Rose Bowls and National Title games recently just like everybody else.

But the feeling here is that the USC schedule, as impressive as the results were, has been equally "weak" this year. Sure, their signature win was a blowout over Big 10 representative Ohio State but you can also point to their loss to Oregon State, who Penn State beat 45-14 a couple of weeks prior. Both teams sit towards the top of the turnover standings as well as their yards per points differential.

The feeling here is that Penn State will have some success where it counts. Up front on both sides of the ball. They'll be able to put pressure on USC QB Mark Sanchez and they'll be able get the ball moving on the ground with that offensive line leading the way. USC has the greater potential to blow open a game with big plays which is always a concern, but we think Paterno (23-10 in Bowl Games) and company find a way to make a game of this and quite possibly pull an upset. This is a matchup between two very well coached teams with talent on both sides of the ball. We'd prefer +10 but still a play at +9.

Larry Ness

Southern Cal / Penn St. Over 45

The Rose Bowl, played in Pasadena, California typically provides ideal weather and playing conditions for the two participants (beautiful weather is expected on January 1 this year, too). That may be the reason that only ONCE in the last decade, has a Rose Bowl game finished with a final score of less than 42 combined points. That came nine years ago, when Wisconsin beat Stanford, 17-9. By the way, that also marked the last win by a Big 10 team! The other nine final scores of the last 10 years ranged from a low of 42 points (USC 28-14 over Michigan) to a high of 79 (Texas 41-38 over USC), with the average final score (excluding that Wisconsin-Stanford game) being 58.7 PPG. With that in mind, it shouldn't come as all that big of a surprise that the opening total in this game was 48 and by Wednesday morning, had dropped to 45 (and still falling?). The Nittany Lions come in averaging 40.2 PPG and the Trojans 37.5 but it's the defenses which are garnering most of the pre-game 'ink.' USC has allowed just 93 points all season, allowing an NCAA-best 7.8 PPG. Penn State is hardly a slouch on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 12.4 PPG in its 12 games. The Trojans also rank No. 1 in the nation by allowing just 206.1 YPG, while the Nittany Lions allow 263.9, which ranks fifth. Both teams come in 11-1, although while USC was just 6-5-1 ATS, Penn State went 8-3. USC's only loss came in a 27-21 setback at Oregon State on Sept 25, a loss which cost USC a chance to play in the BCS title game. In that Thursday night game, the Trojans trailed 21-0 at halftime and couldn't make it "all the way back." However, USC gave up only 56 points in its last nine games (three shutouts plus held five other teams to 10 points or less). The Nittany Lions can relate to the concept of one game costing them a title shot, as well. Penn State's lone loss in 2008 came 24-23 at Iowa on Nov 8, when the Hawkeyes' Daniel Murray made a 31-yard EG with one second left in the game. While both teams defenses deserve all the accolades, there is plenty of offensive firepower on hand. PSU averaged 211.6 YPG on the ground (5.3 YPC with 35 TDs), led by Evan Royster's 1,202 yards (6.5 YPC / 12 TDs). QB Darryl Clatrk has been a major improvement over Penn State's QB of the last couple of years (Anthony Morelli), completing 60.0 percent with 17 TDs and only four INTs. It sure hasn't hurt him that he's blessed with three four-year WRs in Butler (434 catches / 16.6 YPC / 7 TDs), Williams (40 catches / 11.3 YPC / 3 TDs) and Norwood (38 catches / 15.9 YPC / 3 TDs). As for USC, old "Tailback U" went to a "RB by committee," this year, in averaging 206.0 YPG on the ground (5.3 YPC / 26 TDs). McKnight (646 YR), Johnson (642 YR / 9 TDs) and Gable (604 YR / 8 TDs) combined to average 6.1 YPC as a trio. Sanchez started every game at QB and completed 64.4 percent with 30 TDs and 10 INTs. Everything about this game is interesting, with just one thing missing, a national title for the winner. Still, it's a matchup of the legendary Joe-Pa (the Nittany Lions are 23-10-1 SU under the 82-year-old coach in bowl games), against Pete Carroll, who has achieved Hall-of-Fame coaching status since taking over at USC in 2001. The 2008 season marks the seventh straight season USC has won at least 11 games (a new NCAA record) and the Rose Bowl will be the school's SEVENTH straight BCS bowl (Carroll's 5-1 in the first six, losing only that classic Rose Bowl to Texas, 41-38). In the end, despite the excellent defenses for both teams, the perfect conditions in Pasadena set the stage for a much higher scoring game than linemakers have anticipated. Go 'over' in the Rose Bowl.

Nostradamus

South Carolina +3.5
Nebraska +2
Michigan St +7.5
USC -9
Cincinnati -2

Chicago -135
Nashville -120

Western Kentucky -12.5
Rider +6
Fairfield +11.5
Florida Atlantic +2
Nedw Orleans -3

Dennis Hill

Clemson vs. Nebraska
Play: Nebraska +2

This game will be close from start to finish. Nebraska has the better balance on the offensive side of the ball. Clemson got here by winning their last game of the season vs. South Carolina. This is a big game for the Nebraska program, and I look for them to get the job done in this game when all is said and done.

Dave Cokin

Play: Youngstown State +8

Battle of bad Horizon teams on New Year's Day as Youngstown State visits Detroit. The host is the better team and they rate the chalk role, but they're shorthanded and this spot looks too high to me. Leading scorer and rebounder Xavier Keeling is out for the Titans and they may also be without valuable reserve Eulis Stephens. Laying this many points looks like a tough task with the injuries and I see Youngstown at least getting the money in a close game.

Alex Smart

Detroit Red Wings @ Chicago Blackhawks
PICK: Under

The Chicago Blackhawks and the Detroit Red Wings reignite their original 6 rivalry today in the Winter out door classic in Chitowns Wrigley Field on New Years day. Both teams expect this to be a hard fought physical affair .

It's expected to be mostly cloudy in Chicago on Thursday with a high of 34 degrees and a 20 percent chance of snow, and the players , have told the media the ice conditions were far from favorable, which will make for a less than cohesive game. This I am betting will effect scoring in a negative way .

Hawks D-man Brian Campbell was quoted as saying:
"It will be like a playoff game, "I think the guys are revved up for it and want to show what they can do on national TV."

Cristobal Huet is expected to start in goal for the Blachawks .In seven starts, Huet was 6-0-1 with a 1.41 GAA, and has given up just four goals during a current five-game winning streak. Ty Conklin, who has played in out side games before is listed as the starter for the Red Wings .He is is 6-0 L/6 along with a stingy 2.04 GAA vs the Hawks.

Considering the above mentioned conditions, the attitude of both teams, and the starting goal tending , I am expecting a low scoring hard hitting game to be on the agenda.

Play UNDER