Vernon Croy
Edmonton Oilers vs. Minnesota Wild
Play: Minnesota Wild -136
We have a battle of two .500 NHL teams here tonight and the team that will leave with a losing record will be the Edmonton Oilers who are 0-7 in their last 7 trips to Minnesota. The Oilers have struggled killing penalties with opponents converting 24.8% of their chances with the extra man against them on the road this season and the Wild have been very good at killing penalties over their last 5 games with opponents converting just 11.1% against them. The Wild powerplay has been very solid at home this season converting 24.4% of their chances with the extra man. The Oilers have struggled to put the puck on the net over their last 5 games averaging just 25.6 shots on goal per game. The Oilers were very lucky to get the win over the Capitals in their last game because despite winning by 3 goals they only had 23 shots on goal so the Caps G-Jose Theodore simply had an off night. Take the Wild as my NHL Free Play for Thursday night and make sure you get on my NBA TNT Game of the Month as my 67% NBA Run continues.
Tom Freese
Arizona St. at USC
Play: Arizona St.
Arizona St is 6-1-1 ATS their last 8 road games and they are 6-1-1 ATS their last 8 Conference games. The Sun Devils are 4-1-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning home record and they are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games overall. Southern California is 2-9 ATS their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and they are 1-4 ATS on Thursday. The Trojans are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and they are 1-5 ATS their last 6 meetings with the Sun Devils. PLAY ON ARIZONA ST -
Matt Fargo
Fairfield at St. Peters
Prediction: Fairfield
If not for New Jersey Tech and Monmouth, St. Peter?s would be the worst Division I team in the state of New Jersey. The Peacocks are 5-11 on the season but even that is loftier than it really is. They have played a schedule ranked 327th in the nation so producing 11 losses against a slate as soft as that is very discouraging. One of the win happened to come against that 0-17 NJ Tech team while other wins include 246th Long Island University, 265th Canisius and 335th Fairleigh Dickinson. The most recent win was a two-point victory over Loyola-Maryland who is ranked 209th which is the best win. Fairfield is 11-6 on the season including 4-2 in the MAAC as it trails Siena by two games and Rider and Niagara by a half-game. The Stags are hosting Siena on Saturday and while that could be considered a lookahead, it won?t mean a whole lot if they come out flat on Thursday and go into that big matchup three games down. A loss there means four games back and a two-game sweep at the hands of the Saints and that means the regular season title is all but gone. These are the games they need to take care of first and foremost. Four of Fairfield?s losses this season have come against Memphis, Missouri, Virginia Tech and Connecticut who are a combined 52-12 on the season. Fairfield has edges pretty much across the board here in statistical numbers. The most glaring advantage is in assist/turnover ratio where the Stags have a ratio of 1.02. Anything over the breakeven point is solid considering only 131 of 347 teams in Division I can make that claim. On the other side, the Peacocks have a horrendous ratio of 0.60 which is 332nd in the country. Making that even worse is the fact that the schedule has been one of the worst in the country as well as mentioned earlier. Both teams are shooting an identical 65.8 percent from the free throw line but recent form gives the edge again to Fairfield. It is shooting 76.6 percent over its last five games while St. Peter?s is making just 64.4 percent of its attempts over that same span. The Stags have a 102.3 offensive efficiency rating which is good for third in the MAAC ands a decent 132nd in the country. St. Peter?s meanwhile is horrible on the offensive end, which is due a lot to the turnovers as mentioned, and its rating is only 85.9 which is 2nd to last in the conference and 328th in all of Division I. The Peacocks are just 4-15 ATS in the second half of the season in home games against teams with a winning record. They are also 0-7 ATS in their last seven games when playing as a home underdog between 6.5 and 12 points. Fairfield has won seven straight meetings in this series including a home win by 20 points back in December in the conference opener for both teams. That means revenge for the Peacocks but that means little considering they are 2-11 ATS in home revenge games when they scored fewer than 60 points in the first meeting. The Stags roll again on Thursday. 3* Fairfield Stags
Vegas Experts
Cleveland Cavs at Chicago Bulls
Cleveland has dominated this season series in 2008-09 winning all three games by an average margin of 16 PPG, obviously covering each time. The slimmest margin of victory has been nine points, which won't get it done here and it doesn't help that the Bulls are playing without rest. Nor is a terrible 3-16 ATS mark when coming off a SU win as an underdog. Heck, they are just 13-35 ATS off a win of any kind! Cleveland is a league best 26-10 ATS overall.
Play on: Cleveland
LT Profits
Idaho +7.5
The New Mexico State Aggies are usually tough at home, but this has not been the case lately and they could be in trouble tonight vs. the improved Idaho Vandals.
Idaho is off to a respectable 8-8 start, which already matches their win total for all of last season (8-21). More importantly, they have been in practically every game and are currently riding a four-game winning streak against the spread.
The Vandals have improved on both sides of the floor, hitting on 47.6 percent of their field goal attempts on offense including a very good 37.3 percent of their three-point attempt, and they are limiting opponents to 42.6 percent shooting on defense. They have even improved their play on the road this season, where they are 5-3 ATS.
The Aggies have lost two straight games, both here at home, and they have in fact now lost their last three games in their own building. Sure, they have outscored their home opponents by a whopping average of +12.2 points, but all of that damage came vs. weak non-conference opponents. New Mexico State has lost their two WAC home games by an average of 9.0 points.
Now the Aggies won all three head-to-head meetings between these schools last season including a win in the WAC Tournament, but Idaho has closed the talent gap greatly this year and may be in line for revenge.
Pick: Idaho +7.5
Jimmy Boyd
North Carolina vs. Virginia
Play: North Carolina -15
UNC has lost each of its first two ACC games and that spells trouble for the Cavs tonight as the Heels will be out for blood here. The Tar Heels offense has not missed a beat on the road this season, scoring 94.4 ppg and I expect their defense to be much better tonight after allowing its opponents to score in the 80's in losses against Boston College and Wake Forest. UNC is 26-11 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 89.9 to 72.2 in these spots. UNC is also 26-10 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite since 1997. This is a gut check game for the Tar Heels and I have them passing the test.
Chris Jordan
Boise State +9 at NEVADA
Love the Broncos plus the points in this WAC clash, as they should have no trouble staying inside the number in Reno and make this one interesting. Think about it this way, the Pack is 0-1 at home in WAC games thanks to a surprising 78-73 loss to Idaho on Jan. 3; so if the 8-8 Vandals are able to pull that off as a 12-point underdog, what do you think will take place when the 12-3 Broncos head into Lawlor Events Center?
The Broncos won and covered both meetings last season, and they catch a Reno team that is a mere 5-4 at home, and a dismal 1-6 ATS in those games.
Boise has covered four of the last five meetings and three of its last four trips to Reno.
Grab the points in the Biggest Little City in the World, as Boise gets it done.
5♦ BOISE STATE
Johnny Guild
Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls
Play on CAVALIERS
Take LeBron James and squad to grab their fourth straight victory against the struggling Bulls. Look for Chicago to struggle against Cleveland’s tough defensive play. Chicago has dropped seven of their last 11 games, 3-8 ATS and is 1-5 ATS in their last six games at home. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are 11-6 both straight-up and against the spread on the road.
Connecticut Huskies -11
Weber St. Wildcats -6.5
USC Trojans +1
Gina
Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have played sound on their home court and have won and covered the spread in the last four contests versus the Suns at home. The home team have dominated in this series, 7-0 both straight-up and against the spread,13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Phoenix is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
Denver Nuggets -1½
Larry Ness
Mid. Tenn +4 vs W. Ky
The top two teams in the East Division of the Sun Belt Conference will meet tonight with Western Kentucky hosting Middle Tennessee St. The Blue Raiders are currently on top of the division with a perfect 5-0 mark, and come into this game with an impressive seven-game winning streak. MTSU is led by the 6-7 Yates (18.3-5.3) and he's the only regular contributor over 6-4. Green (12.6-3.6) and PG Kanaskie (11.3-4.6-5.2) are the team's other two double digit scorers but Haddock (8.9-5.4), Johnson (7.7-3.6-3.9), a now-healthy O'Neill (5.3-3.7) and Allen (4.1) all do their parts. As for the Hilltoppers, they are 4-1 in league play and are coming off an 78-57 victory over Florida Atlantic. The win snapped a two-game slide for Western Kentucky, which will be playing its first home game since January 3. That's good news, as the Hilltoppers are a perfect 6-0 in Diddle Arena. Most remember that the Hilltoppers won 29 games last year (Sweet 16 run), but head coach Darrin Horn has moved on plus first-year head coach Ken McDonald no longer has Lee (20.4) PG Brazelton (14,4) or Ty Rogers, who will be "forever-remembered" for his game-winning three-pointer against Drake. Slaughter (15.3-3.3-3.6) and Mendez-Valdez (12.7-4.4-4.0) can both play the point plus swingmen Pettigrew (12.9-5.2) and Kerusch (9.8-6.4) are both solid. Two 6-9 players, Evans (9.4-5.6) and Magley (3.1-2.6), give Western Ky a size advantage over MTSU but so far TY, the Blue Raiders have overcome those types disadvantages. The Blue Raiders are allowing just 63.2 PPG, while scoring 72.6 (and shooting 47.0 percent!). Western Ky won all three meetings last year (own five-game winning streak over MTSU) but the Blue Raiders come into this game playing terrific basketball and "the worm is about to turn." Take the points.
Greg Shaker
Pacific Tigers at Cal Irvine Anteaters
Play: Pacific -3.5
Note: Most of you already know me well enough to know that laying points on the road is something that I rarely do. So, when I do, you have to know that I like the game very much. There are a lot of reasons to like this one and specifically because the Tigers are the much better squad. They play much better than average D, and they take care of the ball. Those two things allow them to perform better on the road than most teams and the reason why they have a 4-2 mark in this situation. Irvine's season is not up to snuff and they are not going to have much of a homecourt advantage because of it. They have won but once here and that was an OT decision over a very average Fullerton team. This team has a lot of trouble stopping the opposition with 48% shooting allowed and much of that out on the perimiter where they don't have very good guard play. That is what the Tigers will bring to the table and they will work the ball for open shots all night. Pacific's only 2 road defeats were at Washington and at Cal, early in the season. The Anteaters do not pose nearly the same threat as those guys. We could easily see a runaway tonight here in Irvine and I would play this game up to -5. The line is on the rise right now so if you are going to play it, I would do it now.
Drew Gordon
Washington at OREGON +5
In the midst of an obvious rebuilding year, the young Ducks have struggled of late, losing 4 straight. However, let's not get too down on this Oregon team, especially at home, in arguablly their best chance at win since the New Year.
First off, we know coach Kent and his troops are desperate for a win, and a return home against a relatively road-weary Huskies defense is just what the doctor ordered for this Ducks team. They've faced 4 straight solid defenses (last two on the road no less), and now get a chance to play on friendly rims against a defense allowing opponents to shoot 46% from the floor on the road this season!
Seriously guys, what has Washington shown us on the road this season? They're just 1-2 SU in true road games, including a season opening loss at Portland, and a blowout loss at Kansas. True, they got an impressive outright win at rival Washington State in their last roadie, but let's not get too carried away based on one win. Fact is, the Ducks are a jump-shooting team that can put up points in a hurry (especially now back at home), and that style of ball is far more effective against Washington's D, than the Cougars methodical style.
Finally, two things bother me about Washington in this match up: A. The public is all over them, and that immediately sends up a red flag in my mind. And B. The home team is an outstanding 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings, and despite the Ducks struggles this season, I expect they'll play better returning home tonight. In the end, the Huskies likely win, but the Ducks collect the cash!
Take Oregon plus the points over Washington in this college hoops match up.
2♦ OREGON
Wunderdog
Xavier at Rhode Island
Pick: UNDER 151
Xavier is an A-10 team that has probably most resembled a Big East team over the last several years. They play gritty defense, and work the ball well on the offensive end. Rhode Island has had trouble with that type of team, as they like to run up-and-down the floor. Providence and Villanova put the clamps on that style and held the Rams to 65 points in both games. I see a similar situation facing them here. The X-men have held 10 of 14 teams to 66 or less. The Rams are now 4-0 to the UNDER against the good teams that have a winning percentage of .600 or higher. I like this one to fall short of the total and will back the UNDER.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Wisconsin -6.5
It's a rare occurrence to see coach Ryan's team lose back to back games. After getting it handed to them at Purdue, I expect the Badgers to bounce back strong at home tonight. Tubby Smith has already made great strides at Minnesota but his young team will not be ready for a Badgers team that has had the Gophers number tonight. Wisconsin has won 9 straight at home in this series and 16 of the last 19 overall since 1997. Now that's dominance. The Badgers have won by double digits in three of the last four meetings. The one where they did not was a 9-point win. Take the Badgers at home in this bounce back spot.
John Ryan
Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver -1.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Denver as they host Phoenix slated to start at 10:35 on TNT – AiS shows a 75% probability that Denver will win this game by 3 or more points. They also have a 93% probability of scoring 105 or more points in this game. Note that Denver is already 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when they score 105 or more points in a game this season. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 90-49 ATS for 65% since 2002. Play against road teams after having won 3 of their last 4 games in a game involving two good teams sporting winning percentages of 60% to 75%. Denver is also in strong roles for this game noting they are 30-18 ATS (+10.2 Units) versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Phoenix is in several weak roles for this game noting that they are just ATS (-8.8 Units) after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season; 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season; 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season; 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season.
Xavier at Rhode Island
Play: Rhode Island
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Rhode Island as the host Xavier slated to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows a 71% probability that Rhode Island will win this game. They have strong fundamental rebounders and they will be able to keep the Xavier athleticism at bay and minimize their offensive rebounds and subsequent second chance opportunities. AiS shows an 85% probability that Xavier will not have more than 13 offensive rebounds. Note that Xavier is just 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games when they grab 9 to 13 offensive rebounds in a game over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 39-14 ATS for 74% since 2002. Play against any team hat is a good 3PT shooting team hitting >=36.5% and is now facing an average 3PT defense allowing 32-36.5% and after 15+ games and after 4 straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 40% or less. Xavier is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Take Rhode Island.