Thursday Sharp Report

7:09 p.m. ET: Arkansas vs Gonzaga

This is the Sweet 16 clash in the West Region. Arkansas (27-8 SU, 20-14-1 ATS) is the 4-seed, having beaten 13-seed Vermont 75-71 but failing to cover as 5-point favorites and then edging 12-seed New Mexico State 53-48 but failing to cover as 6.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Gonzaga (28-3 SU, 15-15-1 ATS) is the 1-seed and has beaten 16-seed Georgia Southern 93-72, failing to cover as 22.5-point favorites and then escaped with an 82-78 win over 9-seed Memphis but failed to cover as 9.5-point favorites. This line opened with Gonzaga listed as an 8.5-point favorite. The public wants to sweat the top-seeded Zags but is wary of laying the big number, especially with the Zags failing to cover in both of their March Madness games thus far. However, despite a relatively split ticket count, we've seen Gonzaga grow from -8.5 to -9.5, indicating wiseguy action laying the points with the Zags. Gonzaga will lean on their offensive advantage (88 PPG vs 76 PPG). Ken Pom has Gonzaga winning by ten points (82-72). Gonzaga is the favorite to cut down the nets at +230 (BetMGM). Arkansas is +5000. Drew Timme is the favorite to win Tournament Most Outstanding Player at +350.

Lean Zags

9:39 p.m. ET: Texas Tech vs Duke

This is the Sweet 16 matchup in the West Region. Texas Tech (27-9 SU, 22-14 ATS) is the 3-seed, beating 14-seed Montana State 97-62 in the first round, covering as 15-point favorites, and then edging 11-seed Notre Dame 59-53 but failing to cover as 8-point favorites. Meanwhile, Duke (30-6 SU, 18-15-3 ATS) is the 2-seed, beating 15-seed Cal State Fullerton 78-61 in the opener but failing to cover as 18.5-point favorites and then dismissing 7-seed Michigan State 85-76 and covering as 6.5-point favorites. This line opened at roughly a pick'em. Love them or hate them, the public is all over Duke in Coach K's final hurrah. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line move to Texas Tech -1. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Red Raiders, who have value as a contrarian favorite and "Fade the Trendy dog" play. Ken Pom has Texas Tech winning this game by one point (69-68). The Red Raiders boast the top adjusted defense in the country. Texas Tech is +1600 to win the Big Dance. Duke is +1400.

Lean Texas Tech

9:59 p.m. ET: Houston vs Arizona

This is the Sweet 16 showdown in the South Region. Houston (31-5 SU, 24-12 ATS) is the 5-seed and has beaten 12-seed UAB 82-68, covering as 8.5-point favorites and then edging 4-seed Illinois 68-53, covering as 3.5-point favorites. On the flip side, Arizona (33-3 SU, 19-15-2 ATS) is the 1-seed, beating 16-seed Wright State 87-70, failing to cover as 21.5-point favorites, and then squeaking by 9-seed TCU 85-80 but failing to cover as 10-point favorites. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 2-point favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with higher-seed Wildcats. However, this line has fallen from 2 to 1.5, indicating pro money grabbing the points with contrarian dog Houston. Ken Pom has Houston winning the game by one point (74-73). Houston will lean on its smothering defense, giving up just 59 PPG compared to 68 PPG allowed for Arizona. Houston is +1000 to win March Madness. Arizona is +500.

Lean Huston