Tips for betting Super Bowl props
By THE PREZ
I will give you the easy money bet for Super Bowl XLIII first: bet on the coin toss, call it a day and spend your winnings.
OK, you aren't going to strike it even remotely rich on a bet that is -105 at every book. But definitely put the money down on the Cardinals and tails because the coin toss has been the biggest lock of any prop bet in the Super Bowl for more than a decade.
Don't believe me? Tails has won in nine of the last 11 games, while the NFC has won the toss 11 straight times and 14 of the past 16 games.
Winning the toss hasn't translated into victories on the field. Last year the Giants became the first team since the Bucs five years ago to win both the coin toss and the game. The loser of the coin toss has won nine of the last 12 Super Bowls.
The beauty of the Super Bowl is the amount of unusual prop bets available. Some are pretty silly, like the coin toss, but you can really clean up if you have done your homework.
Take the line for the first score. A touchdown is set at -170 and a field goal/safety is +145. Six of the last 10 Super Bowls have opened with field goals and both kickers this year are excellent from long range (plus weather shouldn't be a factor). This is also a spot where you might want to double up if you are confident in the first score being a non-touchdown. So put down money on the +145 then also at Pittsburgh's first score as a field goal at 11-4 and Arizona's at 13-4.
If you drop $100 on all three, you win around $250 as opposed to just the $145 on it being a field goal in general (I love this bet, by the way, with how both defenses are playing).
Many prop bettors load up on props involving the team they like to win the game. If you like the Steelers, you might choose a parlay to have Pittsburgh cover the spread and that the Steelers defense will hold Arizona scoreless in the first half (which gives you 5-1).
I don't recommend this fan strategy. You can always hedge your bets and still make money. One trick I do is to assign a total percentage among 100 to a certain amount of bets toward one side. Make sure that the majority percentage favors what your gut tells you but leave an out.
Let's say you are a Steelers fan who takes the moneyline and a few positive Pittsburgh bets - you probably want to hedge your bet with a negative Steelers line should Ben Roethlisberger get hurt or turnover happy. Why not buy the Arizona -7 ½ line and see a nice payout of +550 if your Steelers go in the dumps? After all, since the NFL's seeding system was unveiled in 1975 and when two different seeds have met, the higher seeds are just 13–12 straight up.
Don't be afraid to switch your bet to a different second-half result if you are wary at the half, but be aware that Super Bowl teams scoring first are 27–15 -14–7 when scoring a touchdown first, 12–8 with a field goal and 1–0 with a safety.
So do you want to take the shot to win big or spread things out and lower your profit ceiling so that you don't lose all the wagers? I can't answer this for you, but I tend to lean toward leaving yourself at least a minimal safe backup.