Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking

New England Patriots @ New York Jets

This game has an extreme rivalry, everybody knows that both teams dislike each other and there are always arguments between coaches and players, before, during and after the games, but truth is, in the end, the Patriots always take the upper hand in this matches always loaded with great rivalry.

To be honest, the Jets were a good surprise on Week 1, they played very well on the Defense, delivering a lot of pressure on the opponent QB and rookie QB Sanchez did a reliable game and had a nice debut, however the Texans rarely pressured him and he did everything he wanted to do, which surely will change on this game against the Patriots.

Defensively, the Jets were excelent estiveram excelent against Houston, but the Texans don't have the offensive solutions that New England has at his disposal on their arsenal. The Patriots has the best Offense and will surely make life harder to the Jets Defense, both on the Running Game and on the Passing Game as well, because New England is much more stronger than the Texans when it comes down to score the points.

The Patriots will miss due to injury a very important player: Jerod Mayo was hurt against the Bills and he will be out for a few weeks. Despite his absence, New England did a good job against the Bills, under the circunstances, if we take in account that of the 24 points conceded by the Pats, 7 (a touchdown) were offered by Tom Brady, therefore, only 17 points should be accounted to the New England Defense.

It is probable that the Patriots will do tactical changes on their D, but for me, they are ready to face the Jets Offense. Belichick knows too well that in order to win this game, his Defense will have to pressure the Jets rookie QB with a lot of sacks and to disrupt his work. Sanchez will not have all the commodities enjoyed against the Texans, so they will simply come after him, inflicting on him a lot of damage and forcing him to make the errors and bad decisions throughout the game.

As I already told you, the Pats have great Offensive Power, but on the Ground and on the Air as well. Tom Brady started his first game of the season after a long stop delivering short passes, but when it was needed, he took care of the game with his perfect throws aimed to his Wide Receiver and Tight End, which resulted in another Patriots' victory.

I also want to add that the New England Offense on his last drives resembled the team that benefited from great success in 2007. The ease that the Pats showed to arrive to the Bill's end zone was quite impressive and I think that despite a very hard victory, it gave the New England defensive line a boost on their Morale and to their QB Tom Brady as well, which already knows that he is ready to deliver the long passes when needed and to do a very agressive game.

For all these reasons stated above, I believe the Patriots will win this game by double digits and therefore, there is a lot of value on this line.

Pick: New England Patriots -3,5 +100 (2,00) The Greek

Thanks Tommy for the nice writeup 😉

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

Houston comes from a heavy defeat at home against the Jets and they will play next Sunday against a very good team, which actually also lost their first game.

For what I saw from the Texans, their QB doesn't seem to be at 100% and their option for the rushing game hasn't done anything good, since the Jets were able to stop that kind of game. Despite all this, Houston will choose to use the rushing game against the Titans, but I believe they won't be able to achieve great success doing it, because Tennessee have a great defensive line against that kind of plays.

The Titans have one the best overall rosters of the NFL, their Defense is excelent and practically all their plays are very physically strong. It is true that their rushing game against the Steelers didn't played quite well, but the Houston Defense doesn't have anything related to the Pittsburg D, henceforth I think that the key for the success of this game for the Titans to win this match is lying on top of their good rushing game against a very weak defense on the opposite side.

Besides their Rush Offense, they also have a good weapons on their passing game and those who witness Houston's first game, could see how difficult it was for them to play against the Pass Offense. As I already stated, the Titans are fresh and have one of the best teams in the league and they had more resting time than the Texans, which is also an added advantage, but that is not the most important factor.

Titans should win this game by at least one TD or more, because their Defense is playing very strongly and this Tennesse team is too good to even went 0-2. The value is on the Titans side and that is the side I will take for this game.

Pick: Tennessee Titans -6,5 (1,91) Bookmaker

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

I can only see the Vikings win Big and the reason for that is quite simple: Minnesota has a very good Defense indeed, both on the Ground against the Air, their defensive line doesn't allow any room for easy plays to no one. Their rushing game is impressive and we already know that and the reason for it: Adrian Peterson, which is in my opinion the best Running back in the league and he proved it again on Week 1. He is fast, athletic and very strong physically, doing whatever he wants against the opponents defenses.

Last season, Minny great problem was their Passing Game. With the arrival of Brett Favre, that aspect of the Vikings' offensive game has improved considerably and the team has now a lot of options and plays to choose on their Offense, which will make the lives of their opponent's Defensive lines a lot harder, because now they will not know what to expect from that Minny's OL. If last season, it was obvious how Minnesota would play, this season the opponents defensive coordinators have to prepare their Defenses both for a Favre's pass or against another Adrian Peterson rush.

The Detroit Lions continue to have the same problem as last year: a very weak Defense, both against the passing game as the rushing game as well. Simply put, the Lions' D sucks and honestly I don's see how they will stop Adrian Peterson's rushes or Brett Favre passes. Other factor that plays against Detroit on this game is that the Rookie QB Stafford is still a freshmann and he even didn't do a bad game against the New Orleans Saints, but he registered 3 interceptions against one team that in my opinion is far below on Defensive quality when stacked against the Vikings Defense, therefore, I don't see an easy life on this match for the Detroit's rookie quarterbacks.

It is true that the Lions registered 27 against the Saints, but those who saw that game, know that Detroit scored their touchdowns mostly thanks to the serious mistake by the New Orleans Defense, which I already stated, is weaker than the Vikings D, otherwise, had the Saints defensive line played as "expected", and the Lions Offense would have scored a lot less than 27 points.

The Minnesota Vikings has a very good team this year and they will surely want to be present on the Playoffs and for this game, they are the team with the edge on all the sectors, having the best QB, the most experience, a superior rushing game, a better passing game or a stronger defense, and for all this, I believe in an easy win for the Vikes for at least 2 touchdowns.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings -9,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

Seattle comes to this game after an easy home win where they dominated the Rams and the 49ers went to Arizona to defeat the Cardinals, showing their good qualities on the opponent's field.

The Seahawks have an excelent Defense which will surely be able to stop both the 49ers' the aerial and ground Offense. Seattle has also good options on their Offense, but they will face a very agressive Defense which has great quality, henceford, the Seahawks won't have the commodities they had in the game against the St. Louis Rams.

The 49ers won the game against the Cardinals in a way that everybody least expected... Meaning, they won the game thanks to their passing game. But they will use mostly their rushing game, knowing for a fact that the Seahawks D is very good against the air and they have enough manpower to shutdown their attempts to use the passing game as the main offensive weapon. San Francisco has also a lot of quality on their Defense and the 49ers D will make this game very difficult for the Seahawks Offense thanks to their agressiveness.

Both Defenses are really good, so you should expect a lot of turnovers, os 49ers will surely rush the ball and I believe we will have a very hard fought match between these teams and a low point game for both teams, with the defenses to stand out.

Pick: Under 40 Points -110 (1,91) Legendz / -107 (1,935) Pinnacle

Thanks Tommy for the nice writeup 😉

Many thanks, Blade! 8)

Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins

Miami always has great problems when faces teams which have great chances to go to the playoffs or are usual presences in the playoffs, it is rare to see a Dolphins' win, like it happened on the Week 1 and on the last season, when Miami had one good record.

In their first game, the Miami's QB suffered several sacks and that damaged their Offense, causing a lot of turnovers in the process. Tonight they will have to deal a strong team, both offensively and defensively, which will deal a lot of troubles both to Miami Offense and Defense.

Indianapolis despite their win in the Week 1, had very issues on their Offense, but I expect them to improve that for this game, since they are very agressive when they have the ball and their franchise QB Peyton Manning has returned to his old form since his last injury and he can also make history on the NFL, going for his 119th victory, which would break a tie with Johnny Unitas for the franchise record.

The Colts' Defence showed good qualities, they do a lot of pressure on their opponents' QB, which leads to several provoked errors. Indy will surely play by the Air, because that is their strong spot in the Offense, still they also have good players for the rushing game, but their preference is really the passing game, thanks to their star QB.

Whe have to remember that this is a Monday Night Football game, with a lot of Motivation for both sides: the Dolphins have the home advantage and they want to do a great game, on the other hand this is an opportunity for the Colts to give a win to their franchise QB Peyton Manning and do history in the NFL, believing that they will deal with the pressure of being the road favorites for this game.

Despite the fact the Dolphins will play at home, I believe that the Colts will manage to win this game, with their Offense to show their edge, supported by their Defense deles, which will cause a lot of difficulties to the Dolphins' Offense. I see the Colts scoring at least 25 points and I don't expect the Dolphins to exceed the mark of the 17 points in this exciting game.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3 -110 (1,91) The Greek

Below are the week 2 results recap:

7 - New England Patriots @ New York Jets: New England Patriots -3,5 +100 (2,00) The Greek (LOSS)
8 - Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans: Tennessee Titans -6,5 (1,91) Bookmaker (LOSS)
9 - Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions: Minnesota Vikings -9,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (WIN)
10 - Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers: Under 40 Points -110 (1,91) Legendz / -107 (1,935) Pinnacle (WIN)
11 - Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins: Indianapolis Colts -3 -110 (1,91) The Greek (WIN)

SIDES: 2-2; TOTALS 1-0. (Week 2)

Thanks for the update Tommy 8)

Thanks for the update Tommy 8)

You're welcome! 😀

For the Week 3, I'll have 2 totals and 6 sides (In Chalk we Trust :P).

I'll deliver the writeups later in the weekend.

WEEK 3 SIDES:
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans: Houston Texans -3,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker / HOU -3,5 -102 (1,98) Pinnacle

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: New York Giants -6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (Diamond) / NYG -6,5 -103 (1,971) Pinnacle

San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota Vikings -7 -105 (1,95) Legendz / MIN -6,5 -107 (1,935) Pinnacle

Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks: Chicago Bears -1 -120 (1,83) The Greek / CHI -1 -118 (1,847) Pinnacle

New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills: New Orleans Saints -5,5 -110 (1,91) Legendz (5 Dimes) / NOS -6 +102 (2,02) Pinnacle

Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals: Arizona Cardinals -2,5 -110 (1,91) Diamond (Bodog, Sportbet, BetUS) / ARI -2,5 -114 (1,877) Pinnacle

WEEK 3 TOTALS:
Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets: Under 37 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker / -105 (1,952) Pinnacle

Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals: Over 48 -110 (1,91) The Greek / -107 (1,935) Pinnacle

Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets

This game is of extreme importance to Tennessee, one defeat against the Jets and they will be 0-3, which would a terrible start for the Titans and therefore, this game it is much more important for them than for the Jets.

The Titans' Defense on their last game was horrible and they manage to lost a game that was practically in the bag. In order to win this game, Tennessee D has to play at the same level they did against Pittsburgh and I believe they will do it because they have a lot of quality players for the job and will surely do the "Blitz" against the Jets QB Sanchez leading the rookie to commit mistakes.

Tennessee has an excelent Rushing Game and that will be the main offensive weapon for this game, since their QB Kerry Collins is average, usually he doesn't take the most correct decisions in the field and against such a good Jets Defense, the Titans will have to rely most of the time on their Ground Offense, and even by using the rush, things are not going to be easy.

The New York Jets had a great season start and their Defense showed a lot of quality, playing much better than their Offense counterpart, and without Calvin Pace. Jets D have been completely onfire and I even don't want to imagine how good they will be when Pace comes back. They have been superb on both sides, stoping both the opponent's rushing game and passing game, showing a lot of agression and provoking a lot of errors on the opponents QBs.

The Jets rookie QB Mark Sanchez has done good games lately, but you can be sure that one day things will not get well for his side, which is natural to expect on his first regular season and he will have a lot more troubles facing the Titans D, which we can expect to play a lot harder than the previous defenses Sanchez faced, specially with their Blitzes.

The Jets Defense has been very strong, playing very agressive and they don't give much chances to their opponents to score, on the other hand, the Titans also have an excelent D despite the meltdown on their last game, but knowing for a fact that Tennessee badly needs a win on this game, makes me believe that this will be a Low Point Game and therefore, the Under has a lot of value.

Pick : Under 37 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker / -105 (1,952) Pinnacle

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans

Jacksonville had a weak start and to be honest it is not a surprise, a lot of rookies playing lately and things are going really ugly. Their Offense has been anemic and their Defense has not been much better either, which can be a very bad telling sign. It is easy to predict the Jaguars' gameplan for this game: Rushing Game and hope that Jones-Drew will solve their offense issues. The problem with this approach is that the Jags O is so predictable, that the opponent team can very well read which Jacksonville is going to do in the game, but if we put things in perspective, it is not their opponents' fault, the Jaguars only have the rushing game to rely on, because their Offense this year is really very bad.

Houston has a very nice Offense, a decent QB and excelents Wide Receivers, making their O unit their best side of the team. A team which hasn't showed yet their good Rushing Game, which can cause a lot of troubles to the Jags Defense with offensive variations when having possession of the ball. Texans D is their weakest point, but truth be told, the Jaguars Offense doesn't scare anyone.

With this mismatch in mind, we also have history on our side: Houston usually does well against Jacksonville, yet this is not the main fact that compells me to side with the Texans for this game, but the circumstance that Houston has the better team and they also have the home field advantage, which makes me think that Houston Texans will win this match by one or more touchdowns.

Pick: Houston Texans -3,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker / HOU -3,5 -102 (1,98) Pinnacle

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

When everybody thought that the Giants would have some problems due to Plaxico Burress absence, but the team has done well both on the Offense and on the Defense, and for what I've seen, they maybe have with the Ravens the stronger NFL's set of players at the moment in all the sectors.

The Defense is playing very well and confident both on the Rushing Game and on the Passing Game as well. Obviously we can say that Dallas on their last game massacred the Giants with their Rushing Game, but this was a consequence of the Giants head coach defensive options concerning the Cowboys' Passing Game, which left the Giants D opened to the opponent's Rushing Game, which will not happen on this game and the team will perform much better on their defensive end. Offensively speaking, I think the Giants will use a lot more their Ground Offense in the early game and when occasion arises, they will switch to their Passing Game.

What can I tell You about the Buccanneers? Tampa Bay has performed quite well on the offensive end, but in this game they will face a great Defense and the Bucs O will not have an easy task ahead. However, their weak spot in on their Defense, besides an important missing player, they show enormous problems both against the Rushing Game and against the Passing Game as well, and when that happens against the Giants, defeat is a certain outcome.

With this mismatch against the Buccaneers on their defensive end, with the Giants mentaly very strong, we can expect them to win Big this game.

Pick: New York Giants -6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (Diamond) / NYG -6,5 -103 (1,971) Pinnacle

San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings

San Francisco had been very good on the defensive end, but they will not be able to stop the best NFL's Rusher which will play by the Vikes, and they can't even entertain the idea of having their defensive scheme focused against RB Adrian Peterson, otherwise they will overwhelmed by the Vikings' Passing Game, ergo the 49ers Defense has a very troublesome task ahead. Knowing that their Offense is not their best suit, specially on the Passing Game, we can expect San Francisco to rely on their Rushing Game, where they have an excellent option, but they will face a great Running Defense, which will make life harder for the 49ers O.

Minnesota is playing very well on both ends, defensive and offensive. Their D is very strong, both against the opponent's Passing Game and Rushing Game as well, which just makes things worse for their opponents offense. Veteran QB Brett Favre has played very intelligently, despite even suffering some sacks, but he is not taking unnecessary risks and that has translated in zero interceptions. The reason why he is prefering to play in a safer way is quite simple actually: Favre knows he can rely on Adrian Peterson ability to get 1st downs on one carrie, and when you have a such talented running back, you don't have to take much risks on the passing game, and that is a wise decision from him.

Having the best roster of both teams, and also the most complete, the Vikings also have the home field advantage, which makes them the obvious favorite for this game. Besides, what the 49ers have to offer to this game regarding their edges, is nullified by the Minnesota's strong spots, which in fact can surpass San Francisco, thus creating a nice mismatch for us to exploit and I believe that the Vikings will be able to win this game by one or more touchdowns.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings -7 -105 (1,95) Legendz / MIN -6,5 -107 (1,935) Pinnacle