Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Buffalo is a very, very weak team judging by their displays in the last weeks, something that almost everyone already knew before Week 1. With TO already working his charm and doing a lot of damage on the locker room, makes this team's life quite difficult. Their defense has been bad and their offense hasn't showed anything with quality, despite some injuries and having started some rookies. So, again, their prospects are grim.

New York Jets has an excellent defense, despite their lousy display on the last MNF against the Dolphins, but despite that, do not think they don't have a good defensive unit, they are quite good and very agressive, and they will take good care of QB Trent Edwards in this game. This Jets O has showed their capabilities against Miami (which also saw their defense playing below average), playing much better with the return of Calvin Pace and from now on, they will cause a lot of troubles on the opponents' defenses.

On this game, I can only see Jets, Jets and Jets, they have the home field advantage and they need to win this game because their main objective is to reach the Playoffs and I believe that they will win this game by 10 or more points, so take the Jets and lay the points.

Pick: New York Jets -9,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots

Tennessee after a season with a nice 10-0, "decided" to change to a 0-5 and probably they will extend this bad start to a 0-6. The Titans D which was their stronger unit, has been awful, and despite some important injuries, they should not been so bad, mainly against the passing game, they haven't been able to stop the opponent's offense and that is the main reason for the Titans having a losing record so far. The Titans O has showed anything yet, they are quite good on the rushing game, but their passing game hasn't got them anywhere, which makes this offensive unit very predictable for the opponent's defense.

New England is in a variable form, or they play quite well or they simply forget how to play this game, but the bad moments have happened more often on the road, because their home record shows good performances and nice wins to lift their morale. They have one of the best quarterbacks ever to set foot in the NFL and have stellar offense, I think on this game we will see WR Randy Moss running deep in the field and catching some express-deep passes from QB Tom Brady and therefore exploiting quickly the weak spots that the Titans defense has already showed this season. The Patriots D has played very well so far, if we "discount" some silly mistakes done by the younger players, which is something we should expect in the early season.

Patriots playing at home usually does good performances and doesn't let their backers down, they already had several good wins at home and I believe that they will win this game by 10 or more points against a (so far) lousy Titans team.

New England Patriots -9 -105 (1,95) The Greek; NEP -9 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons

Chicago is doing a nice season, they have a decent QB, and RB Matt Forte is unquestionably the team's offensive engine that pushes the team forward down the field, winning yards after yards, which causes a lot of troubles on the opponents' defenses, which worry too much about him, allowing Jay Cutler to play some of his passing game as well, which allows the Bears to change a bit their offensive game. On the defensive plan, these Bears aren't that bad either. This Bears D is not one of the classical Bears defenses, very agressive and with a very low degree of permeability. Overall it is a good defense, but they will suffer a lot of damage against the great Falcons O quality.

Atlanta is also doing a good season, which was already somewhat expected. They have a good QB, great Wide Receivers and a nice Tight End, which makes this offense one of the most powerful of all the NFL. The Falcons also a good RB Michael Turner, which is showing lately his real value and has done great damage on the opponents defenses. The Falcons D has been very good on the passing game and they had some problems against the rushing game, but on the last game they showed some improvements.

Knowing that the Falcons at home are a very strong team, knowing that their offense can score easily a lot of points, I believe that Atlanta will greatly benefit from their home field advantage and win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3,5 -110 (1,91) The Greek; ATL -3,5 -105 (1,95) BetOnline

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers

Denver Broncos (5-0) are doing an excellent season start, defeating the Patriots at home in the last week, defending very well on the second half, but for me Denver got the win because the Pats simply fell asleep after the break. Denver has a decent quarterback, with good stats, but I think that Kyle Orton is just average, and lucky, thanks to his Wide Receivers that are capable to catch almost every bad ball he throws and getting some touchdowns on the Broncos offense, but that is part of the game.

The Chargers are 2-2, what makes this game so important for them, more than for the Broncos. The Chargers cannot lose this game, otherwise their prospects will dim. San Diego comes from a BYE, which is a good thing, because they had time enough to rest and study their opponent for tonight and surely they will do everything to win this game. They have a good quarterback which takes a lot of chances and sometimes throws some interceptions, but he is also capable of leading his team to advance down the field very quickly thanks to his deep passes and this way, get pass thru the oppositions' defenses. San Diego also has good rushers, but they haven't played well this season yet and the team has used more their passing game.

For this game, I expect a win for the Chargers because they had two weeks rest, enough time to change what was wrong in the team and get ready for this match, which is very important for them and they also have the home field advantage, all together, I believe the Chargers will win this game by one or more touchdowns.

Pick: San Diego Chargers -3,5 +105 (2,05) The Greek

nice work tommy, i appreciate that. ;D

Below are my Week 6 results recap:

35 - Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins: Kansas City Chiefs +6,5 -115 (1,87) The Greek, Bet Jamaica; KAN +6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (6-14: WIN)
36 - Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals -5 -110 (1,91) The Greek, Legends, Diamond (DSI Sportsbook) (17-28: LOSS)
37 - Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Carolina Panthers -3 -115 (1,87) The Greek, Diamond (DSI Sportsbook) (21-28: WIN)
38 - Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders: Philadelphia Eagles -14 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (13-9: LOSS)
39 - Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -3 +100 (2,00) Bookmaker (3-27: LOSS)
40 - Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks: Over 46,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (3-27: LOSS)
41 - Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets: New York Jets -9,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (13-16: LOSS)
42 - Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots: New England Patriots -9 -105 (1,95) The Greek; NEP -9 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (59-0: WIN)
43 - Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons: Atlanta Falcons -3,5 -110 (1,91) The Greek; ATL -3,5 -105 (1,95) BetOnline (21-14: WIN)
44 - Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers: San Diego Chargers -3,5 +105 (2,05) The Greek (23-34: LOSS)

SIDES: 4-5; TOTALS: 0-1 (Week 6: -2,4 units);

NFL 2009 Season results: 22-22 (-2,09 units won/44 units risked);
SIDES: 21-18 (+1 unit won/39 units risked);
TOTALS 1-4 (-3,09 units lost/5 units risked).

Wow, 10 picks huh?

You do realize there are only 13 games today right?

Looks like this may be the week where the wheels fall off

I kinda liked all those 10 lines and I other 2 in the pipeline but ended up dropping both. The week didn't went positive for me, but there are more games to come. 🙂

nice work tommy, i appreciate that. ;D

Many thanks for the support, scottshapell. 8)

For NFL 2009 Week 7, I'm leaning on the road dog SFO +3 +100 (2.00) Bookmaker against the small fav HOU -3 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes, but I can't have a good read for both teams on this game.

I've 11 picks on pointspreads and 2 picks on totals, so follow or fade at your discretion. Writeups will be posted later during the weekend. 🙂

Sides:

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins: Philadelphia Eagles -7 -105 (1.95) The Greek

Totals:

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants: Over 46 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New England Patriots (4-2) has shown on their last game that they have one of the best offenses in the league, the unit that will play this afternoon in London for the International Series is the same when the season started, but it looks like that QB Tom Brady is improving his game week after week and so does his offensive "counterparts". I think that on this game we will see again WR Randy Moss running deep in the field and catching some express-deep passes from QB Tom Brady and therefore quickly exploiting the weak spots of this Bucs defense like they've done against the Titans last week, coupled with the use of Wes Welker on the short passes and with those tools, the Pats will be able to travel fast down the field. The Patriots D has played very well so far, despite some small errors, they have done their job but they are now still performing much better than their O comrades. In fact, the Pats O has failed much more times, not the defense. The rushing game is also doing well and New England will face on of the worst teams defending this king of game.

Tampa Bay Bucaneers (0-6) has a lot of injured players on their defense and their secondary is not a great unit either. They show enormous problems both against the Rushing Game and against the Passing Game as well, but is their rushing game defensive scheme that has shown the worst problems. The Bucs O has not played that bad, they showed a good effort on their last game, but the last time they faced a good defense, they were unable to score a single point, just remember the 0-24 loss at home against the giants, so I don't believe we will see the Bucs scoring a lot of points on this contest either..

This game will be Big Time for Patriots, since they have all the edges, both on the Offense and on the Defense, they have the best quarterback, and this Tampa Bay defense has shown so far that they have much more problems defending the ground offense than stopping the passing game, where the Pats have shown good things. This is a game for the Patriots, playing in front of a lot of european supporters, to win by more than 2 touchdowns.

Pick: New England Patriots -14.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns

Green Bay Packers (3-2) have a nice defense, very agressive and when they are playing really well. they are able to nullify the opponent's defense, both against the rushing game and the passing game as well. The Packers O has a good QB Aaron Rodgers in great shape and with good options for the Wide Receivers positions, however this Green Bay offense doesn't have pratically a rushing game, which forces the Packers to abuse from their passing game, which poses some problems to the Packers offense.

Cleveland Browns (1-5) changed their starting quarterback from QB Brady Quinn to QB Derek Anderson, a nice decision by the Browns' head coach by the way, since their offense started to improve, both on the passing game and on the rushing game as well, but that won't change much their fortunes, because both players for that role are very weak after all, and this Browns O is still having a lot of troubles to score points, only 1 touchdown scored per game in average says it all. The Cleveland defense has also improved, but that doesn't mean they are now a good defensive unit, the team gives up a lot of ground against the rushing game and they don't do much damage against the opponents' passing game, having a lot of problems against that kind of game, thanks to the several problems showed by their secondary so far.

On the road, the Packers are a scoring machine, they average 33 points scored on the road and I wouldn't be surprised to see them scoring that much this afternoon on the Cleveland Browns Stadium. The Packers have a better defense and their passing game should prevail against a weaker defense. I expect Green Bay to score around 30 points and the Browns should not score more than 10 to 13 points, therefore we are having value on the road favorite.

Pick: Green Bay Packers -8.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

San Diego Chargers (2-3) for a change are once again starting another season miserably like they did on the previous years, truth is they just need to start winning to have a nice hit streak. They simply cannot lose this game and I'm not seeing a way they could lose this match.

QB Philip Rivers is very reliable, makes good decisions on the field, his passes usually suffer very few interceptions and he has good options in his offense to play with, but the team should change and start using their rushing game more often. I know that RB LaDainian Tomlinson has not played a good game this season, despite the his last performances signaling that an improvement to his good old form is underway, so he can show again to everyone in the league that he is an elite rusher, the talent is all there. The Chargers have also a good defense that can apply a lot of pressure on the opponent's OL, when they are focused in the game, something that we have only seen on their third game so far against he Miami Dolphins, by only allowing a late touchdown on the fourth quarter.

Kansas City Chiefs (1-5) are improving throughout the season, with nice performances on the offense lately thanks to a QB Matt Cassel playing quite well, however he doesn't have many options available on his offense to give continuity to his plays, so overall they aren't able to score too much points in their games. On the defense, Kansas City has also improved, if on their first games they look like the Ozone Hole, now they are playing much better but they still have a lot of problems to stop the opposition's rushing game and the same applies to their secondary and that translates in a lot of troubles to stop the opponent's passing game.

This is a must-win game for the Chargers and there is no doubt that they have the quality to do it, and it is now the time of the season when this San Diego team starts to find itself and playing their best football and I don't expect the Chargers to win this game by less than a touchdown.

Pick: San Diego Chargers -4.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Minnesota Vikings (6-0) have become one of the best teams of the NFL when they hired QB Brett Favre, giving them more offensive power to their offense. Favre has been terrific this seaon, he has not taken many chances and he has suffered very interceptions which is odd, because we all know that despite his quality, he also throws a lot of interceptions, but on this season he has done a very good management on his passing calls and he has taken advantage of the powerful rushing game at his disposal. QB Favre improved the Vikings passing game and with the best rusher of the NFL, RB Adrian Peterson (a player that is pratically impossible to stop and even when he is stopped, he has far better numbers than any good rusher in the NFL, which makes him a key player on the Vikes O), the Minny O is quite strong and deadly to their opponents' defenses. The Purps defense is also a good and agressive unit as well, one of the mainstays of this team in the past, however they have shown lately a lof of troubles on their Safety positions and that is their weak spot, causing this Minnesota team to suffer a lot of points thanks to these liabilities.

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) are slowly entering in the expected rithym, they have a quite strong quarterback and that handles sacks without much troubles. This Steelers O has became curiously very predictable, using mostly their passing game, an option I quite understand since is there that the best offensive weapons can do the most damage. The stronger unit of this Pitts team is still their defense, very solid and strong, excellent against the passing game and even better stopping the rushing game, being one of the best on the NFL on this subject.

It is funny that both teams are showing a lot of problems in the fourth quarter, but I believe that the Steelers with the advantage of playing in their home field will not lose this game, we know how strong they are when playing at home with that loud crowd support and I think that Big Ben will exploit the safety position issues of this Minnesota defense, so take the Steelers and lay the points, i expect them to win with at least 1 touchdown of difference.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Indianapolis Colts @ Saint Louis Rams

Indianapolis Colts (5-0) have been completely onfire this season and they arrive to the Edward Jones Dome from a bye week, meaning, lock and load to get more wins this season and I don't see them losing this game. The Colts O is very powerful A equipa tem uma offense bastante poderosa, they have QB Peyton Manning has one of the best QB of the league, and he has always at least 4 Receivers to whom he can pass the ball, which makes this offense quite difficult to stop, and they also have a good rushing game. The team has defended very well, both against the rushing game and the passing game as well and they have been very solid and secure.

Saint Louis Rams (0-6) have a lot of problems on their offense, their QB is weak, their offense is weak, if we don't take in account their rushing game, where they have one and only one good player, their main rusher RB Steven Jackson, because the rest of the unit is simple feeble. The Rams D is also very fragile, showing a very bad defensive organization against the passing game and the rushing game as well.

Indianapolis Colts has everything to win this game, at least they should score more than 30 points and I'm not seeing the Rams scoring more than 10 points on this match, so take the Colts and lay the points.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts -13.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals

Chicago Bears (3-2) has a nice offense, but their QB Jay Cutler when reaches the Red Zone is unable to transform those opportunities in touchdowns and they have to settle with a Field Goal instead, losing precious points in the process that farther in the game are more than needed... This is a thing that has happened so many times that I've lost count... Despite that, they have a great Rushing Game with RB Matt Forte but so far they were unable to use him as expected on the red zone to score those precious touchdowns. Chicago strong point is their strong Defense, very agressive, and they are doing well against the opponent's rushing game. However, the same cannot be said against the passing game and today they will face a very dangerous team on that matter.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) can play very well or not play at all, this season they played very well against tough opponents, but against lower caliber teams, they simple appear to be a "no show" team... Cincy D has been very well so far, if we forget last week display, we can expect the Bengals giving everything on this game, because they will have a bye week and they are going to play in front of their supporters and since they want to go to the Playoffs, they cannot afford to lose this home games. The Bengals have a good QB, excellent options available on the passing game with good Wide Receivers, and a nice rushing with RB Cedric Benson, this player has been very well lately, but knowing how good the Bears play against the ground offense, the Bengals will have to resort more to the passing game, because like I said, the Bears are having troubles on air offense and the Bengals should exploit on this game this option more often.

I expect Cincy to play with enough motivation to win this game straight up.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals PK -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica