Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking

Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers

Buffalo Bills (2-4) will not start QB Trent Edwards and I don't believe in this team. I acknowledge that they have done good games against their division rivals, but on their last game they benefited from 5 interceptions and only won in OT Field Goal, which illustrates quite well their lack of offensive power. On the defensive end, the team has been decent, sometimes they pressure the opponent's quarterback which leads to some mistakes on their opposition's OL, but on the other hand, they show some debilities against the rushing game. Overall, they should have scored more points against the Jets on the last game and that shows their offensive limitations.

Carolina Panthers (2-3) finally understood that their strong spot is their rushing game and they should exploit it, they have a quite powerful OL and that creates nice opportunities to their two rushers to go down the field and for this game I expect them to have at least 200 rushings yards combined. Their defense has not been that bad this season, they are improving on their secondary thanks to recent return of their quality safety, and I don't expect them to have much troubles against the Bills soft offense.

I hope to see the Carolina playing as Running Football team, it is against the ground offense that the Bills D has more difficulties and if the team keeps pressing that key on this game, they have everything they need to win this game by 1 or more touchdowns, because we should not expect much from the soft Bills O.

Pick: Carolina Panthers -7 +100 (2.00) The Greek

New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders

New York Jets (3-3) will try to avoid on the road their fourth straight defeat and they will not have an easy life on this game, because they will play on a field where they usually show a lot of troubles. The rookie QB Mark Sanchez after doing one of the best starts of a rookie quarterback in the NFL, has suffered how hard it is to be in a rookie's quarterback shoes, being the main target of several Blitzes, followed with more Blitzes, which doesn't give him much time to think, His OL has been unable to stop those blitzes so far and now Sanchez doesn't have all that time he had in the early season to make his calls and we can see that on his stats too. The Jets D continues to be very good, both against the running game and the passing game as well, but right now, the biggest problem the Jets are facing is really their lack of ability to score points in the offense.

Oakland Raiders (2-4) has a quarterback that is nothing special, but he is improving game after game, mainly in his passes completion % and avoiding the oppositions' sacks. The Raiders D when motivated is not a bad defense after all, Richard Seymour already warned that they will not play again with that lack of motivation they showed in other games, and that their gameplan has a lot of pressure against QB Mark Sanchez. Richard Seymour also said that the Raiders want to go to the Playoffs too, but on that matter, I believe that this ambition is more to drive the team down the field to have some objective to fight for.

This is a tough game for the Jets and how things are going on, I wouldn't be too much surprised if the Raiders win this one straight up, I foresee a very close game.

Pick: Oakland Raiders +6 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys

Atlanta Falcons (4-1) are doing a nice season, their good QB despite his youth is showing much quality by making the right calls and with great displays and the best sector of this Falcons team is undoubtedly their offense,with 2 great Wide Receivers and one of the best TE on the league, with makes this offense quite powerful and difficult to stop. Yet, on the rushing game, despite having a good rusher, they were unable so far to have good results on the field when carrying the ball, however their passing game has been enough to compensate their lack of power on the ground offense. The Falcons D has been very good on the passing game and they had some big problems against the rushing game in the past, but on the last games they showed great improvements, still they aren't a great defense on that matter, but there are on the league teams that defend worse than the Falcons against the ground offense

Dallas Cowboys (3-2) doesn't have a bad offense, but is not that powerful offense of the previous seasons. QB Tony Romo loses his head a lot of times and throws the ball at random, which makes one believe that they should rely more often on their rushing game, but the biggest issued with this team is really on their defense, with their secondary and mainly their safeties playing very badly, and that is having a serious impact on the Dallas D performance, they had suffered a lot of points and if they don't improve soon, starting today, they will have big troubles against the Falcons offense.

The best strategy for the Falcons is to start the game early in the lead to force QB Tony Romo to commit the same usual mistake, which is, instead of rushing the ball, is to throw the ball and that is a great advantage for the Falcons, which at this time have the best team and are quite capable of winning this match straight up.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons +4 -105 (1.95) The Greek

New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins

New Orleans Saints (5-0), have been terrific on the offense ataque, QB Drew Brees is showing to be one of the best on the the league and he shows great skill in throwing the ball very deep in the field, destrying the oppositions' defenses completely. The Saints also have outstanding Wide Receivers and a good rushing game, which is not used very often. But the success of this team is due to their defense, which has improved from the last season, playing quite well against both the rushing game and the passing game as well.

Miami Dolphins (2-3) are a good team on the running game, with several options on that ground offense, they use the Wildcat formation very well and that makes life very hard to the opponents' defenses. For me, that won't work against the Saints, if the Fins play like that, they will lose by a 3 Touchdowns margin at least, if they want to win this game, they have to play it relying more on the passing game, playing like the Saints do, and they have a good quarterback capable of throwing deep balls. The great problem on the Dolphins D is on his safeties and that is a plus for me, because I expect the Saints to crush this defense.

The only explanation for seeing a Saints -6 spread is that the Dolphins had a bye week, but that won't stop the powerful Saints O, this is a game that can have a lot of points and I expect New Orleans to win this match by 37-20.

Picks: New Orleans Saints -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker & Over 47 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants

Arizona Cardinals (3-2) are improving week after week, with a good quarterback and excellent Wide Receivers as offensive weapons, which makes this offense quite strong and difficult to stop. The Cards D is very good at stopping the opposition's rushing game, but it is also true that they are having a lot of troubles to stop the opponents' passing game. I expect them to repeat the same strategy employed in their last game by doing "blitzes" against the opponent's QB, but they will face a strong OL, which should give enough time to Eli Manning to do his Passing Game.

New York Giants (5-1) after the humillianting defeat against the Saints in New Orleans Saints will surely return to the wins. They have a very strong offense, starting with the franchise QB Eli Manning and with excellent young wide receivers, besides a good OL capable of giving the time needed for their QB to make his calls. The Giants are also playing very well in their Defense, until they faced a powerful offense and were completely thrashed, leaving too much room for the opponent's WRs, which translated in too many points conceded in their last game.

This will be a great game to watch, with good WRs and QBs always ready to score points and with "soft" defenses, which will make this match interesting, close and with a lot of points scored, something around 30-27.

Pick: Over 46 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Yesterday we started 5-0 with the 01:00 PM EST games and ended the day with an 8-4.

For the Week 7 Monday Nighf Football, I'm going with road favorite previously posted:

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins

Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) comes from a humiliating defeating in Oakland where they were a simply "no show" and I don't believe that they will do such a lousy game again this season. they are well served in the quarterback position, with a good starting QB, even the backups are good players. They also have good rushers and good wide receivers, which turns this team very powerful in their offense and allows them to score a lot of points, but they had a soft schedule so far this season. I think that the Eagles will use RB Brian Westbrook more often on this game, for me that was the biggest problem on their last game against the Raiders, he was rarely used on the offense on that game, that and some lack of drive and motivation.

Washington Redskins (2-4) continue to have internal problems inside the organization which is never a good thing for a NFL team. The Redskins QB Jason Campbell is under a lot of pressure which is not a good thing for the team and that is reflecting on the passing game. Their wins were against teams (Rams & Bucs) that don't scare anyone on this league. The Washington defense against high scoring teams has been very bad against the opponent's rushing game, the same goes against the opposition's passing game.

I trully don't believe Philadelphia losing this game and with all those problems affecting the Redskins, I believe that the Eagles will win this game big time, scoring a lot of points.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -7 -105 (1.95) The Greek

Weird, I'm 25-18 (58,14%) on chalk...

Below is my Week 7 results recap:

45 - San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs: San Diego Chargers -4.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (7-37: WIN)
46 - Indianapolis Colts @ Saint Louis Rams: Indianapolis Colts -13.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (6-42: WIN)
47 - Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns: Green Bay Packers -8.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (3-31: WIN)
48 - Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (27-17: WIN)
49 - New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: New England Patriots -14.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (7-35: WIN)
50 - New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders: Oakland Raiders +6 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (0-38: LOSS)
51 - Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers: Carolina Panthers -7 +100 (2.00) The Greek (9-20: LOSS)
52 - Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals PK -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (45-10: WIN)
53 - New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins: New Orleans Saints -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (34-46: WIN)
54 - New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins: Over 47 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (34-46: WIN)
55 - Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys: Atlanta Falcons +4 -105 (1.95) The Greek (37-21: LOSS)
56 - Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants: Over 46 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (17-24: LOSS)
57 - Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins: Philadelphia Eagles -7 -105 (1.95) The Greek (17-27: WIN)

SIDES: 8-3; TOTALS: 1-1 (Week 7: +4,47 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 31-26 (+2,38 units won/57 units risked);
SIDES: 29-21 (+5,52 unit won/50 units risked);
TOTALS 2-5 (-3,14 units lost/7 units risked).

I'm winning 59,09% on chalk (favorites) and i'm winning 58% on pointspreads... Let's see if I can end the season with a decent winning percentage (55% at least) on all my NFL 2009 regular season picks...

I don't want to be the wet blanket but I wouldn't go down on yourself just yet.

The way the favorites played last week ATS is the exception, not the rule and you are just barely above where you would want to be with a lot of weeks left to go.

I give you points for accurate records and line shopping but I still question picking 10+ games a week which are mostly favorites.

I don't want to be the wet blanket

Good initial thought!!!

I don't want to be the wet blanket but I wouldn't go down on yourself just yet.

I agree. 🙂

The way the favorites played last week ATS is the exception, not the rule and you are just barely above where you would want to be with a lot of weeks left to go.

I dunno yet what to do with the totals, which were always my Achilles Heel, but on the pointspreads, specially on the chalk, there is an explanation, perhaps too simple: the schedule.

There are a lot of good teams vs bad teams pairings this season and last week was very clear on that perspective. The bad teams aren't showing enough quality to score some surprises.

Yet, one must know that sooner or later, these good teams will start to play "slowly" and start burning the public money... 😉 Until then, I'm going to ride this wave... 😉

I give you points for accurate records and line shopping but I still question picking 10+ games a week which are mostly favorites.

It is up to the board. There are days with valuable lines and odds, there are days where there is almost nothing to take a risk. For this week for example, I've cut down almost by half my NFL action. 🙂

For NFL 2009 Week 8, I've only 7 pointspreads to risk:

Writeups will be posted later during the weekend. 🙂

ACHTUNG/ ATENTION: New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles: NYG +1 -110 (1.91) The Greek is incorrect. My mistake.

This is the correct line:
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles: New York Giants PK -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica

Folks, I'm aware that most of the decent offshores sportsbooks have now NYG -1 -110 (1.91), but since Bet Jamaica has a nice $5K USD pointspread wager/stakes limit for the NFL, I'm gonna take it, if it is not a problem to all of you. 🙂

Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills

Whoever will be the Buffalo Bills starting quarterback, QB Trent Edwards or QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, I believe that Houston will have an edge on this match up, since QB Matt Schaub is doing a superb season and he has already 16 touchdowns. With such quality recievers like WR Andre Johnson and TE Owen Daniels, it's not a surprise at all. On the offense, Houston is very strong on the passing game and their rushing game has improved a lot too, so this will be a good option for this game since the Bills D is having a lot of difficulties to top this kind of game. I can't deny how good the Bills are defending lately against the passing game, getting a lot of interceptions, but I believe that the Texans O will prevail on this one and let the Buffalo defense in trouble.

Texans D has some shortcomings and they conceed several points throughout the game, but this Bills O is not much better, because so far, they have few points scored. WR Terrell Owens is now even criticizing himself instead of his teammates, but this is more showtime than anything else. Overall, I think that these Texans are better than the low scoring Bills, Houston's passing game is very strong and their running game is becoming dangerous and therefore, I believe that the Houston Texans will win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.

Pick: : Houston Texans -3 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes

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Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys

It seems that the Dallas Cowboys offensive unit is starting to fall in place, their running game has been better week after week and QB Tony Romo appears to have found his favorite target, WR Miles Austin, which on the last 2 games made 16 catches for 421 yards, so surely the Seahawks D will keep an eye on Austin and because of this, I believe that WR Jason Witten might have a great game this week too. With the Cowboys O playing as expected again, knowing that the Seahawks defense is having huge troubles to stop the both the opponents' rushing game and the passing game as well, I see big difficulties for them to stop the Dallas offense, aggravated by the absence of MLB Lofa Tatupu which will further complicate matters.

Dallas are quite favorite for this game in my oppinion, despite the Cowboys defense not being anything special, this Seahawks offense has done nothing too, QB Matt Hasselbeck has been forced to throw short and that has complicated a lot their points prospects. With the Cowboys playing at home and if they keep playing like they have done lately, they can win this game with a lot of points, so I believe in a Dallas win by 2 or more touchdowns.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -9.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek, Bet Jamaica

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New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

QB Donovan McNabb is having a lot of problems against teams that do a lot of blitzes and we saw it already against the Giants this season, so he will surely be targeted again with a lot of the Giants' blitzes, one of the good things of this New York team. The Giants despite their last 2 games where the defense has not been well, that doesn't mean that they can't take good care of the Eagles offense. The Eagles' rushing game will be only rookie RB LeSean McCoy, because RB Brian Westbrook is injured and probably will not play this game, which hurts a lot the ground offense prospects of Philadelphia and therefore the Giants defense will focus more on the opponent's passing game.

The Eagles defense are having some difficulties even against some minor offenses, so this afternoon they will have a lot of problems to stop this Giants O, which besides QB Eli Manning, has good options on the WR position, with Steve Smith and Mario Manningham, and they will surely be able to deliver some damage on the ground offense thanks to 2 excellent rushers, RB Brandon Jacobs and RB Ahmad Bradshaw, 2 very explosive rushers that can cause a lot of troubles to the Eagles D.

For me the Giants have the edge both on the defense and on the offense, thanks to RB Brian Westbrook injury, which leaves the Eagles with less offensive options, Eli Manning has a nice record on the road against Philadelphia and it is one of his favorite places to play, which is a normal thing since he has always won there and I believe the Giants will have a good game this afternoon an I expect them to win.

Pick: New York Giants PK -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

This will be again a very special game for QB Brett Favre and I think we will come out winning again. On their first encounter, the Packers were extremely focused in stopping the Vikes rushing game, so Brett Favre did 24/31 on passing, therefore Green Bay will face a major dilemma today, if they focus too much on RB Adrian Peterson, Favre solves the game, if they take too much attention to the Purps' passing game, Adrian Peterson solves the game, meaning that this Vikings O is very complete and has good weapons for every kind of offensive game.

The Vikings D is also very good, but we must not forget that QB Aaron Rodgers did an excellent game against this same defense, specially in the last quarter, but it wasn't enough to get the Packers a win. Green Bay will surely use more often their passing game, because their ground offense has no solutions against the Minny run defense.

This game will be played in a familiar territory for Favre and that will be surely another motivation factor for him, since arriving to the Vikings he has become a more calm quarterback, making the right calls and never risking random throws, because he knows that RB Adrian Peterson is at his disposal.

For me, Minnesota could have won against Pittsburgh on the road, they have shown a lot of quality during these 7 weeks and they have a better defense than the Packers, they have a better offense and they have the best rusher of the NFL, so I believe that the Vikings will win this game SU.

Minnesota Vikings +3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are playing much better lately, specially on their defense against the opponents' passing game, and now they really look like that team that went to the Super Bowl last season. Arizona is using on the last weeks RB Tim Hightower as a short pass option for QB Kurt Warner and that is a major complication for the opponents' defenses, which already have to worry about Warner's deep throws to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, 2 excellent wide receivers.

Carolina Panthers on the offense has nothing to offer besides their rushing game with RB DeAngelo Williams and RB Jonathan Stewart and that is a big problem for the Panthers, because right now, the Cardinals are the NFL's best team stopping the opponent's rushing game. Knowing how bad this Carolina team is on the passing game, their QB Jake Delhomme is one the worst in the league according to the season's rankings, same goes to his wide receivers, we will not see much of this Carolina offense today.

With the Cardinals playing at home and doing much better now, their offense will prevail over the Panthers D and this Carolina offense doesn't have options to complicate matters for the Cardinals defense, so I expect a home win by 2 or more touchdowns.

Arizona Cardinals -10 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica