Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers

Dallas Cowboys (6-2) are rally improving their game in the last weeks and the team is much more close and solid than in the early start of the season and this game will be a test for them, if they want to keep their good position for the playoffs. Green Bay Packers (4-4) comes from a loss on the road on Tampa Bay where the defense was quite below the expected and if they don't improve for this game, they will have a very long game ahead.

QB Tony Romo since a few weeks ago was able to discover the best way to lead his offense, if before he only used TE Jason Witten, now he goes along with WR Miles Austin (22.7 AVG) who has been Dallas' best weapon to score touchdowns. Since this new presence in the Dallas offense, the opposition' defenses had shift their focus on Miles Austin, which has given more room for Jason Witten to have more opportunities to play. Besides these two wide receivers, Tony Romo still has WR Roy E. Williams who is not a bad player at all and sometimes does good catches and also deserves careful attention from the opponent's defense.

If the Cowboys O has now with good weapons for the passing game, their ground offense has also good tools to get the job done. RB Marion Barber is one of the best NFL rushers and very hard to stop, he is very strong and even suffering a hit, he is usually able to win one or two more yards and his backup RB Felix Jones is also an excellent rusher with a 7.3 yards per carry average, which is a very good average indeed.

On the defensive side, Dallas has also improved, mainly against the passing game, which is good for this game, besides the team has also improved on the pressure against the opponents' quarterback and QB Aaron Rodgers will have a difficult task, with OLB DeMarcus Ware in great form, always able to get near the opposition's quarterback and causing a lot of pressure and knowing that the Packers' OL is horrible when it comes to protect their quarterback, the Cowboys will surely take advantage of that situation. Dallas rushing defense has also improved lately which is a plus for this game too, despite the fact Green Bay uses more often the passing game on their offense.

Aaron Rodgers is doing a good season, but his stats are dropping, we know that his OL can't protect him from suffering a lot of sacks, his pocket often collapses, but we should be fair on this one, a lot of the sacks he has suffered so far this season were due to the fact he takes too much time to make his calls. Like I said, Rodgers should be very careful on this game, because OLB DeMarcus Ware is mastering his trade...

When Rodgers is not busy trying to figure it out to whom he should pass the ball or when is OL is simply crushed by the opponent's defense, we can rate as a good unit this Green Bay offense. WR Donald Driver and mainly WR Greg Jennings are great players and even the rushing game is doing good thanks to RB Ryan Grant, but the Packers ground offense can only dial up some good calls when facing bad teams, therefore I see some difficulties for Green Bay to do a good running game against Dallas.

If taking aside the known problems of the Packers offense, we have a good unit to be worried about, when the subject is the Green Bay defense, then the Packers supporters start to be really troubled. This Green Bay defense is being terrible mainly against the passing game, the secondary has been completely outplayed by every team they already faced so far and they will have to face this afternoon an offense that has been on fire lately, so a lot of suffering has to be expected from the Packers secondary. Green Bay running defense is not that bad, but Dallas has a good ground offense and complications might arise for the Packers defense.

Right now Green Bay has a lot of problems to protect Aaron Rodgers and their secondary will be surely heavily exploited by Dallas offense, it is true that the Packers offense is quite good, but the Cowboys D has improved a lot and the small road favorite has a lot of solutions to complicate things for the small home dog, so I think that Dallas can win this game by at least one touchdown.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -3 +105 (2.05) The Greek

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

Seattle Seahawks (3-5) on the road has been terrible, they don't produce anything on their offense and their defense is having a lot of troubles. The main reason why the Seahawks can't score is due to the protection the Seattle OL can't provide to their QB Matt Hasselbeck, who's indeed a good player, but is not yet 100% recovered from the injury he suffered earlier in the season and going with a deep ball against Arizona's secondary is not a good idea either.

Seahawks running game counts with RB Julius Jones and RB Edgerrin James and it doesn't scare anyone, there are a lot of plays when Seattle is in a 3rd down and short situation and the team goes much more by the air and on this game, I believe that is will happen very often, because the Cardinals have a very good rushing defense.

For Seattle to have some chance to win this game, they need to be very focused on their defense and since this is an important game for both teams, a divisional one, I believe that the Seahawks will give their best on their defense first and then trying to keep their offense focused and cooled, playing with calm and biding their time, using the clock in their favor.

Arizona Cardinals (5-3) curiously played much better on the road than at home this season, the complete opposite from their fantastic last season, when they where so strong at home and had some problems on their road games. This team is a very powerful one when the subject is called offense. QB Kurt Warner has excellent weapons like WR Larry Fitzgerald and WR Anquan Boldin, who are very strong on the passing game.

Cards running game despite the excellent rushing displayed last week, is quite weak. Arizona has RB Beanie Wells and RB Tim Hightower, but we know that Tim Hightower has played often by the air than by the ground, therefore, the core of this Cardinals offensive unit is really their passing game.

As I said earlier, the Cards defense has a good secondary and it will be hard for the Seahawks to score a lot of points against them and their running defense is also quite good and I believe that they will able to stop the Seahawks offense in both dimension, both their passing game and their rushing game as well.

If we take a good look at both teams schedule's for this season, only against the Texans who actually play much better on the road than in Houston, the Cards were able to score a win. We also noticed that after the 21-34 home loss against Carolina, a great 21-41 road win followed in the next game against Chicago, which explains a little bit why the opening line on the total was so high (47 points). We also remember that half of the games that Arizona has already played had 48 or more points scored...

Seattle has clearly lost all their road games, always by a two digits difference (13 points or more). They only won at home against very weak teams and they have 3 games where the total points scored where equal or higher than 51 points, which includes their last 2 games after their Bye Week on Week 7. With this in mind, we can understand why the total opening line was that high...

The reason why I'm not playing the Cardinals point spread is due to the Arizona's performances at home. They haven't convinced anyone yet and it is on these games that they feel more pressured and more mentally unstable. That has translated in a lot of errors and in bad home games and in the end, a few losses.

Despite the Seahawks have lost all their road games, I believe that they can take advantage of the Cards bad behaviour at home and play a slow game, controlling the clock, taking advantage of Arizona's mistakes and avoiding to commit their own mistakes. Knowing that this is a divisional game, we must not forget that the Seahawks were heavily defeat by Arizona at home on their previous encounter: 3-27.

After considering the possibilities for this game, there is another plausible scenario for this game, which also helps us on the total. Arizona simply snaps their bad home display and does indeed a good game, finishing the game with a 31-6 score for the Cardinals or even a 24-17, if they play their game like they have done in the road. If that happens, then the Seahawks will only be able to score some late points like they did against the Colts, for example.

Otherwise, Arizona will play very badly like in their previous home games and we can have a surprising Seahawks win, but I don't expect more than 41 points on that case. Right now, both teams can't make mistakes and the pressure on both teams is heavy, specially over Arizona's shoulders, a team that doesn't want to lose the opportunity to win a second game this season against these weak Seahawks.

Overall, I believe that defenses will play much better, the offenses will have difficulties in doing their job thanks to the pressure and fear of failure, minimizing the risks of doing mistakes in order to not favor their adversaries. In my opinion, without both teams last two games and the total line for this game should be around the 42 points, 43 tops. I believe that this Under line has the better odds so I'll take the extra value in this probabilities market.

Pick: Under 46.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts

This is the best game of Week 10, with New England Patriots (6-2) coming to Indianapolis with three wins in a row, showing a lot of improvements in their last displays, where they will face a perfect Indianapolis Colts (8-0) team this season.

As we know, QB Tom Brady, one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, was injured last season and it took too much time for him to regain his old form, which was perfectly normal. The Pats O wasn't playing well until Week 4, but since then the New England offense and Tom Brady are playing much better, mainly Brady's deep balls which are hitting their intended targets, like for example, WR Randy Moss, one of the best NFL Wide Receivers, and WR Wes Welker, a very important player for Brady's game, because if Randy Moss is more used on deep balls, Wes Welker is more suited on the short game, but since he is so agile and quick, he can catch the ball and run some extra yards during the game. Besides these two great wide receivers, Tom Brady also has another great option to pass the ball, TE Benjamin Watson.

Patriots rushing game, despite the absences of RB Fred Taylor and RB Sammy Morris, will count with RB Laurence Maroney who has done great games lately and as a backup, we have RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis who also is a quite good player. So, despite these two important injured players being absent, the running game of the Patriots still has good options. I think that Laurence Maroney is an excellent rusher, but he will have difficulties against the Colts ground defense, because on a game like this, everyone is going to give their best.

In the early season, I thought that the Patriots would have some problems on their defense and that they would probably improve during the season, but despite being a unit filled with so much young players, they actually are doing real fine defending well both against the passing game and the rushing game as well. And the team needs them to hold the ground and keep the game close, they have risen to occasion, despite some foolish penalties thanks to their youth and inexperience, a normal thing considering those facts. I believe they will do a good job against the Colts offense tonight.

Indianapolis Colts also have one of the best quarterbacks in the league, QB Peyton Manning is doing a great season, leading his team to a perfect record: 8-0. He doesn't have offensive options as strong as Tom Brady as to choose from, but despite that, the Colts offense also has good weapons like WR Reggie Wayne, WR Pierre Garcon and TE Dallas Clark. From these 3, I highlight Dallas Clark who always shows up in critical situations and is always able to do that catch which gives the Colts the so needed 1st down for the team to keep going forward down the field, which makes him a very important player for the Colts offense

On the rushing game, the Colts have RB Joseph Addai, who has done decent games comparing with the last season, improving his game, but he is not the same Addai like 3 years ago, I think he will have some troubles against the Pats defense. As a backup for Addai, the Colts have backup RB Donald Brown.

Indianapolis defense has 3 important absent players on their secondary, specially SS Bob Sanders who will be surely missed in a game like this, despite the fact his replacement has been playing very well. It is true that this Colts D also has a lot of young players, but this unit has been outstanding and were able to stop the opponents' passing game and rushing game as well. However, this week they will face a great match, an offense that is very powerful and with a lot of seasoned players, which can tip the balance in favour of the Pats in some plays.

New England is playing much better now and I truly think that the Colts will suffer their first loss in the season, because the Patriots are playing much better now and Indianapolis rhythm has dropped lately and they had won their games in a close fashion, their offense is not playing very well, but their defense has done quite well in compensation. We all know that Tom Brady and QB Peyton Manning will play very well and can both throw a lot of touchdown passes, but this is a game that will be played slowly, with a lot of tactical sense, where Defenses will be "Queens", and the offenses will try to not give any free plays to their opponents and thus, I see a lot of value on the Under 49.5 Points and I think that the New England Patriots will win this game SU.

Picks: New England Patriots +3 -125 The Greek and Under 49.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (MNF)

Baltimore Ravens (4-4) are in a very complicated situation and they are in a desperate need to score wins and there is not better opportunity for that than facing the lowly Cleveland Browns (1-7). On the current season, Baltimore wasn't able to get the upper hand against strong teams, but when their opponents are weak sides, they have completely dominating those teams and had scored a lot of points too.

Baltimore offense has sophomore QB Joe Flacco, a good player when has enough time to make his calls and we are expecting such a thing tonight. His partners are WR Derrick Mason, Flacco's main target and Ravens' best wide receiver, because if we see things right RB Ray Rice also plays as wide receiver. Baltimore also has TE Todd Heap who is used by Joe Flacco from time to time.

Ravens running game has RB Ray Rice (5.3 YPC) and RB Willis McGahee (4.3 YPC), both are good options to use against the weak Browns' defense and we can expect Baltimore to have good plays both by the air and by the ground.

Baltimore Defense has been completely dominated on the passing game by good teams, but the Ravens' secondary is one of the best in the NFL and against Cleveland won't have big problems on this subject. Curiously, Baltimore defense has been outstanding on their rushing defense, which is a good thing for us, because tonight they will face a team which is stronger on the ground, if we can say that the Browns offense is strong...

Cleveland will start again QB Brady Quinn and I don't think that a good idea, he will have a lot of problems, mainly against ILB Ray Lewis who will take special care of him, and against S Ed Reed, who might pick some of his passes... Browns offense is quite weak on the passing game, with WR Braylon Edwards and WR Mohamed Massaquio, 2 players that haven't done a single touchdown this season. TE Todd Heap who already has 1 touchdown scored is another option, but there is no doubt that by the air, this Cleveland offense is one of the weakest of the NFL.

That's why they prefer to play by running the ball and RB Jamal Lewis and RB Jerome Harrison will have the hard task to penetrate the hardened Ravens rushing defense which has been completely fantastic, so overall, It will be very hard for the Browns to score points against Baltimore tonight.

On the defense, Cleveland has not a great team either, against the passing game is average, but against this Ravens offense, I doubt they will hold them much longer, because not only the Browns have to worry about the Ravens' WRs, but specially their main weakness is playing against the running game, they simply can't stop the opponents' rushing game and they have been completely mauled by their opposition in a weekly basis.

Baltimore only need to win this game to keep their hopes with a wild card alive and I can't see any other result than a win for the Ravens, and with the road favorite team having all the edges on the offense and on the defense, the only strong spot of this Browns team is their ground offense but the Baltimore has improved already on that subject, therefore I will take the Ravens against Cleveland, who I think will lose this game by at least 2 touchdowns.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens -10.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

It was a rough week, all the 3 wins were close, all the losses were clear, even if in two (Broncos and Falcons), I can file a complaint about some key injuries during the games, QB Kyle Orton and RB Michael Turner. Yet, the Falcons can put a lot of blame on themselves, by the way they played on the 4th quarter.

Below is my Week 10 results recap:

70 - Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers: San Francisco 49ers -3 -125 (1.80) Bookmaker (10-6: WIN)
71 - Denver Broncos @ Washington Redskins: Denver Broncos -3.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (27-17: LOSS)
72 - Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers: Atlanta Falcons PK -120 (1.83) 5Dimes (28-19: LOSS)
73 - Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals: Under 46.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (31-20: LOSS)
74 - Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers: Dallas Cowboys -3 +105 (2.05) The Greek (17-7: LOSS)
75 - New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts (SNF): New England Patriots +3 -125 (1.80) The Greek (35-34: WIN)
76 - New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts (SNF): Under 49.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (35-34: LOSS)
77 - Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (MNF): Baltimore Ravens -10.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (0-16: WIN)

SIDES: 3-3; TOTALS: 0-2 (Week 10: -2.45 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 41-36 (+1.24 units won/77 units risked);
SIDES: 39-29 (+6.38 units won/68 units risked);
TOTALS 2-7 (-5.14 units lost/9 units risked).

Pointspreads (57,35%) account for almost 90% of my action, so maybe it's better for me to stick to it for now and leave the bloody totals alone. 😛

For NFL 2009 Week 11, I've only 4 point spreads to risk:

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants

QB Matt Ryan despite the good weapons at his disposal on his offense, is going through a rough patch, suffering 11 interceptions on his last 6 games, which has cost his team several wins. Falcons D has has been bad, very bad against the opponent's passing game and their secondary has been completely outplayed by good opponents' passing games. They are also having troubles to defend against the rushing game and for today, that might be problematic when you face the Giants ground offense.

Falcons offense is one of the best and powerful in the NFL, having WR Michael Jenkins, WR Roddy White and for me the best Tight End of the NFL, Tony Gonzalez, so, for the passing game, they have a lot of solutions, but Matt Ryan lately has not been able to make it work for the Falcons passing game. The rushing game has been completely on fire but with the injury of RB Michael Turner who was in great shape and not been able to practice, we will have an important missing player for the Falcons and it is to RB Jason Snelling to step up and carry the ball down the field.

We can say that the Giants' Bye Week was right on target, the New York team started with a 5-0 record to go 0-4 on the last 4 games, so this Bye Week was providential to recover some players and have some time to think about the future games after the last minute loss against the Chargers. The Giants' major issue has been their secondary, completely outplayed on the last games and they need to improve that, they can't always concede a 30 points average and I think that the Bye Week was important to improve that unit and to practice in order to correct their previous mistakes and with some important players returning after injury, they will have an improved passing game defense.

Giants rushing defense has been playing good and with Michael Turner absent, they will have an easier task today. QB Eli Manning is an excellent quarterback who has been not that good lately, despite his good game against San Diego. He has good tools for his job like WR Mario Manningham, WR Steve Smith and TE Kevin Boss, whom despite their youth, have great talent and quality. Giants rushing game counts with two good rushers, RB Brandon Jacobs and RB Ahmad Bradshaw, very powerful and capable of withstanding the hits and tackles and to win a few more extra yards, so I think that the Giants should use more this option today instead of using only their passing game.

The Falcons are having a lot of troubles playing in the road and they will play in very complicated field against a great team and the way they are defending against the rush and the way their secondary is playing, the Giants will be able to do a good offensive game throughout the field, causing a lot of problems against Atlanta, and I believe they will be able to win this game by more than 1 touchdown.

Pick: New York Giants -7 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

P.S.: I'm adding San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos: San Diego Chargers -6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker as my final pick for Week 11. 🙂

Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams

Arizona has won all their road games and the Rams haven't won any game at home and I think that thinks will stay pretty much the same. Cardinals are doing great in their offense, QB Kurt Warner is improving his game and has great option to pass the ball (WR Larry Fitzgeral, WR Anquan Boldin or WR Steve Breaston) which makes the Cards passing game very dangerous for the opponents' defenses.

Arizona's running game has improved too on the last weeks, mainly after RB Beanie Wells has taken care of business, which was undoubtedly the Cards weakest part in their offense. Even RB Tim Hightower is also improving his performances and he is also used as a wide receiver for the Kurt Warner's short passes, like a tight end.

Cardinals defense is very good against the rushing game and that is good for us, because the Rams can only carry the ball as their offensive weapon and I'm sure that the Cards D will be enough to stop the Saint Louis ground offense. Arizona's passing defense has ups and downs, sometimes they defend very well and do a lot of pressure, doing good man coverage, sometimes they look like an empty highway. Knowing that the Rams passing game is one of the weakest of the league, the Cardinal defense has everything to give us a good show on this match.

Saint Louis 23 points season high last week could have been good news, but the lowest Cards scoring game was only... 24 points. QB Marc Bulger is having a lot of troubles because his offensive weapons aren't great players (WR Donnie Avery, WR Keenan Burton e TE Randy McMichael) and aren't very used either and when they play, they are unable to do big plays for the team. The Rams rely on their strong suit, the rushing game, thanks to RB Steven Jackson, a great rusher with a 4.8 yards per carry average.

It is true that the Rams has some important injuries on their secondary and that is translated in bad performances against the opponents' passing game and against a great air offense, they will be on the downside. Saint Louis run defense is not good either and they way the Cards had improved on their ground offense, I expect the Rams to have a lot of troubles on their defense.

The Cards are playing well on the road and are scoring a lot of points and I believe that the Rams will continue their low scores performance, the mismatches between both teams makes me think that Arizona has everything to win this game by 2 or more touchdowns.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals -9 +100 (2.00) The Greek

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears

This Sunday Night Football game is extremely important for both teams and for their postseason ambitions, so there is pressure for both teams and errors can happen on both sides.

With RB Westbrook out and things appear to be very ugly for him, I'm afraid if his injury will even ruin and end his NFL career, things will not be good for the Eagles running game and we cannot forget that the Bears play at home and they are a good home team and playing in Chicago is always a difficult thing to do. Philadelphia is not playing good on the road and they showed a lot of problems when they play as a visitor, besides the Bears also have some weapons on their offense and their ground offense can make things very difficult for the Eagles defense.

Overall speaking of both teams, the Eagles have the most complete package than the Bears and I think this Philadelphia -3 line is acceptable but when you are on the road and you aren't doing great as a visitor and have to face a good home team and for me, I can't have a good read on both sides and I wouldn't be surprised if this game is decided by a Field Goal and for me this line has no value and I'm going to stay away from this game. 🙂

Finished yesterday with a 1-3 on SIDES... Aside from the Chargers, all the other favs allowed backdoor covers, specially the Bengals who lost on OT... 😐

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (MNF)

Tennessee after the Bye Week on Week 7 has nicely improved, specially after QB Vince Young returned to the starting lineup, scoring 3 straight wins, but for me the main reason for such improvement is due to a better performance of the Titans D, both against the opponent's rushing game and on their secondary, but truth be told, they haven't faced yet a strong offensive team like the Texans and I think that tonight they will have huge problems in order to stop Houston's passing game.

Titans offense has improved with Vince Young doing safe passes and he hasn't throw many interceptions. Young counts with WR Nate Johnson, WR Kenny Brit, WR Justin Cage and TE Bo Scaife to pass the ball, they aren't bad players on one side, but are a little bit far from the best in their roles and positions on the league. This troop will face a good passing defense, but what has given some results to the Texans O has been the running game with rusher RB Chris Johnson completely dominating on his last 3 games (495 yards) with an impressive 6.6 YPC and 6 scored touchdowns, and I believe he will again do a good game Tennessee now rely too much on him and will use it a lot on this game, since the Houston defense is much more stronger against the passing game than against the ground offense.

I rate Houston as a good team, they have been playing well and their last losses were against good teams and against the Colts they manage to give a good reply thanks to their good offense. QB Matt Schaub is doing great season and counts with WR Andre Johnson, WR Kevin Walter and TE Joel Dreesen. Schaub has good weapons on his offense, specially Andre Johnson who is for me one of the best wide receivers of the NFL.

Texans ground offense is average, their rushers are RB Steve Slaton (3.1 YPC) and RB Ryan Moats (4.1 YPC) per carry can give some diversity to Houston offense and both are always able to win some yards, but this kind of game is seldom used by the Texans, because they prefer to use the passing game, which is quite obvious thanks to their good array of wide receivers and a nice quarterback.

On the defense, Houston has some troubles to stop the opponents' ground offense and surely Chris Johnson will present some problems to this Texans D, but every defense unit who faces Johnson as always troubles ahead. Since the Titans are using much more the running game, the Houston should focus much more on this kind of game, because their secondary has been playing well and are doing a good men coverage.

I see value on the Houston -4 line since I don't believe that Tennessee will be able to stop the Texans passing game which is really quite good, has a quarterback in great shape with great tools for his job on the wide receivers' role. Houston is also very motivated and after the Bye Week they really want to give a good show and even with Chris Johnson on the other side, the Texans will score a lot of points and win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.

Pick: Houston Texans -4 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

You can already see HOU -3.5 on 5Dimes, maybe you can get a better price on some shops before kick-off. 🙂

Below is my Week 11 results recap:

78 - Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants: New York Giants -7 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (34-31 OT: LOSS)
79 - Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams: Arizona Cardinals -9 +100 (2.00) The Greek (13-21: LOSS)
80 - Cincinnati Bengals @ Oakland Raiders: Cincinnati Bengals -9 -105 (1.95) The Greek (20-17: LOSS)
81 - San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos: San Diego Chargers -6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (3-32: WIN)
82 - Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (MNF): Houston Texans -4 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (17-20: LOSS)

SIDES: 1-4 (Week 11: -3.09 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 42-40 (-1.85 units won/82 units risked);
SIDES: 40-33 (+3.29 units won/73 units risked);
TOTALS 2-7 (-5.14 units lost/9 units risked).

Considering the -11.22 units lost last week on college hoops, plus -6.4 units lost on NHL in the same period, it was only fitting that the same should happen on NFL as well...

Pointspreads are now down to 54.80% and the prospect of a losing season begins to loom if the current course is not carefully changed...

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions:

Detroit is miserable on the defense, but on the offense has good players and now with the return of WR Johnson, the team has shown a good passing game and they even turned the tables on the weak Browns, truth be told. I will not follow Green Bay on this game because they're playing very bad on the road and despite the mismatches on both teams, I can't get a proper read on their motivation, because this game can go to both sides, depending of well the Packers execute on offense and defense or how commited will be the Lions to give their best in this game.

Oakland Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys:

What can I say about the Raiders??? One of the hardest teams to predict, they can do a very good game like last week and on the next game, they can screw up big time and look like THE WORST TEAM I EVER SAW PLAYING ON THE NFL and I've seen a lot of games in this century. On the other side, we are asking to lay too many points on a team that only scored 7 points!!! Depending on how motivated the Raiders are, one can stay out of this game or play against Oakland, because these Cowboys with the proper mindset, can cover this pointspread and rout the Raiders.

New York Giants @ Denver Broncos:

Big game for both teams, the Giants are still far from their good form, their secondary has been pitiful and they will play in a very complicated field and without beeing sure if Kyle Orton will be out or not for this game, it will be very complicated to have a good read on this game. Even if he plays, it is not easy to take sides on this match. Both teams need to win to keep their postseason hopes alive, so we can expect a great effort from both teams, however, how badly the recent losing streak is affecting the Broncos' players mindset? The Giants have a bad secondary and the Broncos offense is very bad with Chris Simms leading the team...

For NFL 2009 Week 12, I've 5 point spreads and 1 total to risk:

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

Indianapolis Colts as we know, has not lost a game this season and I'm not seeing them to lose this match. Their offense has one of the best Quarterbacks of all time, QB Peyton Manning, who is doing a tremendous season and he has been the main reason why the Colts are still unbeaten. Peyton Manning can count with WR Pierre Garcon and WR Reggie Wayne as his preferred wide receivers, both are quite good and both have great quality. Manning will also rely on his main weapon, one that he uses much more often than the others, TE Dallas Clark, who is doing an excellent season this year.

We already know how pretty good the Colts' passing game is and their rushing game is not bad at all either. Rusher RB Joseph Addai after a season where he his performances weren't the best, has improved and he is playing quite well this year, not at the same level that he used to a few years ago, but at least, he's somewhat back. To help the Colts on the ground offense, we have RB Donald Brown as Addai's backup and he always manage to gain some good yards every time he carries the ball.

Defensively I have to highlight a couple of things. It is true that the Colts' secondary has suffered a lot lately in the passing game, but we should not forget that when their opponents get into the Colts' red zone, Indy defense can in most cases force their opposition to settle with only the field goal attempt, as we saw last week against the Ravens, where the Indianapolis defense forced the Ravens to go for 5 Fields Goals instead of scoring several touchdowns...

The absence of TE Owen Daniels on Texans side, I believe that the Colts' defense will again do a good work, specially when near their own end zone. Their rushing defense is not bad at all, they can stop the opponent's rush and for this game the Colts D will not need much more effort to stop the Texans' rushing game, which is quite average, so Indy should be able to get the job done.

Houston Texans has lost the last 2 games because their kicker missed important field goals which should cost them this season and now I don't believe that they can even get a wild card. Their offense has a good quarterback, Matt Schaub is doing an excellent season so far and thanks to the weapons he has, such as WR Andre Johnson, one of the best in the league, or WR Kevin Walter, who is a lesser option for QB Matt Schaub to throw his passes. Since TE Owen Daniels was injured, the Texans offense playbook has been virtually reduced to Schaub to Johnson, which makes this offense very predictable.

Their rushing game is not the best nor the worst this season, Houston relies on RB Steve Slaton and backup RB Ryan Moats and these two will have the difficult task of penetrating the Colts' defense and I think that the Texans will not have much success when using the running game.

Defensively, Houston has many difficulties in stopping the opponents' rushing game and certainly Joseph Addai will give them some headaches down the field. Texans' passing defense is average but knowing that they will face Peyton Manning, who can penetrate any defense without great difficulty, we can be assured that they should be dominated by the Colts' passing game on this game, which will make things very hard for Houston to win this game.

Indianapolis has more arguments than the Texans for the win and I sincerely believe that the Colts will win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek