Top 2010 NFL Season Win Totals
By Mr. East
The NFL season is around the corner, and if you want to ensure a good season, you should be on my plays, as I am going to have a killer season. I have done so much work this summer that I am as confident as I have ever been entering the season.
Speaking of the NFL season, many like to play with the futures and season wins total. Many like to look at personnel changes and utilize those numbers vs. what the books put out, but guess what, the oddsmakers are doing the exact same thing. Some like to look at strength of schedule, based on last year, but that doesn't work either, take that to the bank.
So where is the "stealth" angle that the books don't know about, or consider when posting season wins totals? It is hidden in the AFC vs. NFC matchups.
Every year each team plays 1/4 of their schedule, 4 games vs. the other conference. Why is that significant? Here is why, and how it relates to season wins totals:
Going back to the 2004-05 season, based on 2003-04 results here is why this is a huge predictor. There have been 13 teams that have gone 4-0 against the other conference since 2003-04. The 13 teams that went 4-0 in these games, came back the following year to average losing -2.77 games from their previous years win total!
Going back during the same period there have been 15 teams that went 0-4 against the other conference. The 15 teams averaged winning +2.33 games more than the previous year.
So obviously we have found a market inefficiency weakness under these parameters as the results have been clearly predictive! Teams that sweep the opposite conference are going to on average pay for it the next season, and teams that get swept will redeem themselves.
So how does that pertain to this season's win totals?
There are 4 teams that swept the opposite conference last year. They were Indianapolis, Tennessee, San Diego and New Orleans.
I would expect these teams to slip in the win column this year. The only one I see value in playing is TENNESSEE UNDER 8 -104.
There was also 4 teams that were swept by the opposite conference, and they were Cleveland, Carolina, Tampa Bay and St. Louis.
There are 2 with season wins value and they are: CAROLINA OVER 7 +130, and CLEVELAND OVER 5.5 -112.
So there are my 3 predictions on NFL season wins totals, with an explanation as to why.