Top College Dogs
By Judd Hall
If you’re anything like me, you have been hard at work looking for some new angles to keep in mind for the upcoming college football campaign. We’ve already discussed Heisman props, backing unranked favorites and road warriors. Now it’s time to look at some those happily downtrodden folks, the underdogs.
Every last one of us has been a part of the public contingent that has blindly backed a favorite at the betting window. Anyone that tells you otherwise is a damned liar. But as we mature as gamblers, we start picking our fights with the “chalk” and finding spots to play the pup. Last season wasn’t a wild one for underdogs pulling the upsets as they were 180-529 straight up in all games that were on the board. For our purposes, however, they went 364-330-15 against the spread. That’s a respectable (and profitable) 52 percent to cover.
The easy thing to look for is those teams that were great pups to play last season. We had teams like Iowa that was 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS last year, but one look at its 2010 schedule will show you that we may not get many chances to act. Same thing goes for Florida State (4-2 SU, ATS) and Miami (2-0 SU, ATS). Those three teams are some of the better ones in the nation and will no doubt get the squares attention on a regular basis. Instead, we should really be focusing more on the ‘dogs that are not getting as much respect as they probably should. And you have to keep an eye on teams that can’t help but make you think of the sound you get after losing on “The Price is Right.”
So which teams don’t get the respect like they should from the masses? Teams like Connecticut, that’s who. The Huskies found themselves as pups seven times in 2009. While they won just three of those contests outright, they covered the all important spread in six times. I’ll readily admit that I expect big things out of UConn, but they have legit spots that could see them as pups this year at home with the Mountaineers, Bearcats and Panthers coming to town. That will help since Randy Edsall’s crew is 4-3 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as home pups.
Northwestern is another team that has been under the radar for some as Pat Fitzgerald enters his fifth season running the program. They’ve gone bowling the past two years, losing both in close fashion. The Wildcats will be breaking in a new quarterback on an offense that returns eight starters, while the defense brings back six. Gamblers should be interested in the ‘Cats because they were 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS last season as underdogs. We will have to pick and choose our spots for them though since they won’t have many games as pups this season. But trips to Vandy, Penn State and Wisconsin give bettors plenty of reasons to wager…especially since they are 6-3 SU and 9-0 ATS when Northwestern is listed as a road pup since 2008. You should also consider the ‘under’ in those games since it went 8-1 for our purposes.
Let’s shift our attention from the shores of Lake Michigan to the heart of Texas. That’s where June Jones is plying his trade as head coach of Southern Methodist. Jones has proven to be a miracle worker on the college level. He immediately turned Hawaii into a champion in the WAC back in 1999. Now he’s doing the same in University Park with the Mustangs. SMU went from 0-11 SU and 3-8 ATS in 2008 to 7-5 SU and ATS last year. But Jones’ crew shined as ‘dogs with a 4-4 SU and 7-1 ATS mark in ’09. Jones has been a worthy guy to bet as an underdog, evidenced by a 22-43 SU and 37-28 ATS record. We’ll get a chance to act on right out of the gate as the Mustangs are 13-point road pups against Texas Tech on Sept. 5.
There are more than enough teams on the FBS level that wouldn’t know what to do with a win if it stared them square in the eye. But one of those teams was able to cash in as an underdog at a reliable clip. Colorado has not lived up to the expectations that were instilled the moment Dan Hawkins came over from Boise State in 2006. Last season’s 3-9 SU campaign most likely means this is his last go-round in Boulder. That’s a shame since he went out and posted a 2-7 record SU and 6-3 ATS. In fact, the Buffaloes have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games as pups. Our best wager to make on the Buffs has to be when they are home ‘dogs. Colorado has gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven home tests as pups.
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