Total Talk - Championships
By Chris David
The old adage, “Offense wins Games, Defense wins Championships” is repeated over and over again in the NFL playoffs and this year is no different. The stout defensive units have also created a bunch of low-scoring games, which has resulted in ‘under’ tickets galore for gamblers.
Wild Card weekend saw the ‘under’ go 3-1 and the Divisional Playoffs round saw that effort duplicate, making the first eight playoff games watch the ‘under’ go 6-2 (75%).
Will points be hard to come by again or will we see some shootouts in the conference championships? The last three NFC title games have seen the ‘over’ go 3-0, and the ‘over’ is also on a 4-1 run in the AFC Championship.
Let’s take a closer look at the pair of matchups.
Philadelphia at Arizona (47): The Eagles defeated the Cardinals 48-20 on Thanksgiving Day and the combined 68 points easily jumped ‘over’ the closing total of 49. Despite the high-scoring affair in late November, the early money or what most in the industry call “sharp money” has been on the ‘under’ in this week’s rematch. The opener was listed at 49 ½ but has since dropped to 47 at most offshore outfits and in Nevada.
Philadelphia took advantage of four Arizona turnovers and racked up 410 offensive yards. More importantly, quarterback Donovan McNabb and the Eagles went 6-for-7 (86%) in the redzone, with five touchdowns. Even though QB Kurt Warner (53%, 3 INTs) didn’t play his best game, the Cardinals were 100% (3-of-3) in the redzone.
The Eagles’ defense has looked great in their two playoff games, holding the Vikings (14) and Giants (11) in check. The unit will definitely be tested this weekend against an offense that averaged 30.2 points per game at home this year and just put up 30 and 33 on Atlanta and Carolina respectively in the postseason.
The X-Factor on the game going ‘over’ or ‘under’ could come down to Arizona’s defense. The Cardinals have forced nine turnovers in the playoffs and that number could improve, considering the Eagles have coughed up the football four times (3 INTs) in the playoffs so far. Another thing to think about is the Cards’ focus on running the football lately. If they get up, they’re not going to be chucking and ducking as most would expect. The 43 rushing attempts by the Cards in their 33-13 victory over Carolina last Saturday was the most all season.
Philadelphia has watched the ‘under’ go 4-1-1 in its last six games and the ‘under’ has gone 6-4 on the road this year. Arizona has been an ‘over’ machine at home (8-1) this year and it could be a perfect ledger but a 34-13 victory over the Rams on Oct. 2 barely missed. The Cards were held to 14 points on Dec. 14 to Minnesota, which was the lowest number at home this year. In every other game, the team has scored 29 or more points.
This will be the fifth NFC Championship game for McNabb and head coach Andy Reid in Philadelphia. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in those title games but the one game that went ‘over’ happened in the 2001-02 postseason. The Eagles lost to the Rams (29-24) and a quarterback named Kurt Warner on a fast track indoors.
Does history repeat itself Sunday?
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (34): The third round of this AFC North battle is expected to be another slugfest and it’s hard to argue why it wouldn’t be. The number has been moving between 33 and 34 points all week and could shift again, depending on the weather. Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the twenties with a 60% chance of snow showers and wind up to 14 miles per hour.
The Steelers the Ravens 23-20 in overtime at home on Sept. 29 and wound up sweeping the season series with a 13-9 road victory on Dec. 12. The first meeting on Monday Night football was on pace to go ‘under’, with only 13 points scored at halftime. However, the two teams combined for 27 after the break and cashed another ‘over’ ticket on MNF.
The Ravens' defense has stepped up in the playoffs by creating turnovers.
The Ravens' defense has stepped up in the playoffs by creating turnovers. (AP Images)
Defense will be the key in this spot and it’s hard to argue against either unit. The Ravens have only allowed one team to score more than 13 points in the last eight games and that happened when the Cowboys scored 14 points against a prevent defense on Dec. 20. The Steelers’ defense has been suspect to big plays of late, evidenced by two big scores in last week’s 35-24 playoff win over San Diego. Still, Pitt has surrendered 14.5 PPG all season long and has been incredible against the run.
The Baltimore-Under parlay combination has cashed in five of the last six games and that’s directly attributed to the aforementioned defensive unit and an offense that really doesn’t scare you. Rookie QB Joe Flacco has looked like one the past couple weeks, completing for less than 50 percent of his passes and only 296 passing yards. He hasn’t tossed any interceptions but he certainly hasn’t taken that many chances too.
Baltimore’s defense has caused eight turnovers in the playoffs so far and those are usually the biggest factor in missed opportunities. Just ask Tennessee, who coughed it up twice in the redzone last week against the Ravens.
If you delve into the Ravens’ last two games, two numbers stick out – 275 and 224 – which are the passing yards by the Titans and Dolphins. It’s fair to argue that the Steelers have the better quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger and the better group of receivers too. If those two teams can muster up close to 30 yards, then most would expect Pittsburgh to do the same.
Scoring touchdowns in the redzone are huge for any total and gamblers should know that Pittsburgh (.333) and Baltimore (.359) are ranked first and second in defensive touchdown percentage when opponents enter their 20-yard line.
Baltimore has watched the ‘over’ go 6-4 on the road, while Pittsburgh has seen the ‘over’ go 5-4-1 at home.
Pittsburgh has seen the ‘over’ go 4-0 in its last four AFC Championships.
vegasinsider.com