Total Talk - Championships
By Chris David
Divisional Playoff Recap
After watching the ‘over’ go 4-0 in the Wild Card round, the pendulum swung the other way last weekend as the ‘under’ produced a 3-1 record in the Divisional Playoffs. The results were clear-cut and gamblers with winning tickets didn’t have to sweat at all. The Saints’ 45-14 victory over the Cardinals was the only game that went ‘over’ and that happened with both teams posting zeros on the scoreboard in the fourth quarter. Second-half players watched the ‘under’ go 3-1, and the lone ‘over’ in the final 30 minutes came in the Chargers-Jets battle, luckily too. Most books kept the number at 20 and the two teams combined for 21 in the final quarter. Through the playoffs the ‘over’ stands at 5-3 through the first eight battles.
AFC Championship – N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis
According to the early betting trends at Sportsbook.com, the public has leaned heavily toward the ‘under’ which has pushed the total from 41 to 39. The way the Jets are playing on both sides of the ball, it’s hard not to expect a low-scoring affair. Plus, Indianapolis plays possession football as well these days, evidenced by its 20-3 stifling victory over Baltimore last weekend.
The Jets own the top-ranked defense in the league and earned a little more respect when they held the Bengals and Chargers to 14 points in their first two road playoff games. The Colts’ unit is no slouch either and they have the numbers to prove it too, especially at home. If you toss out the 34-point explosion that New England posted at Lucas Oil Field in mid-October, no other opponent was able to penetrate the Colts’ defense. In meaningful games, Indy held the other seven teams to 17 points or less, which includes last week’s three-point effort versus the Ravens.
New York did put up 29 in Week 16 at Indianapolis but 14 of the points came off a kick return and a defensive touchdown. We won’t toss out that game completely because it does give us some nuggets, especially on the Jets. New York used its ground and pound attack to pile up 202 rushing yards, the majority coming in the second half. QB Mark Sanchez only passed for 102 yards and he remained handcuffed due to the help from his defense. The Jets’ offense only accounted for 10 points in this game, while Peyton Manning put up three scores in six possessions before he was yanked.
What happens if you give the league’s Most Valuable Player double the reps on Sunday? You do the math folks, and toss this note into your handicapping. The Colts offensive line has only allowed their signal callers to be sacked 13 times, which is the best in the league. In case you don’t know, the Jets don’t have a legit pass rush. Most would expect a serious blitz package and that could be dangerous against Manning.
Looking back at Sanchez, he’s done enough not to hurt the Jets but can he step up when necessary. Rookie quarterbacks haven’t fared well in championships according to past history and he hasn’t shown much in these playoffs. With that being said, betting the Jets team total ‘under’ looks pretty promising.
NFC Championship - Minnesota at New Orleans
The last time the NFC Championship saw a total in the fifties was during the 1998-99 season when Atlanta upset Minnesota 30-27 on the road as a 10 ½-point underdog. The ‘over/under’ on this contest was 55 and it’s fair to say that the Saints’ juggernaut is just as good if not better than the Vikings’ offense that season. We’ll find out for sure for this Sunday when the New Orleans faces a stout Minnesota defense that has been a beast at times, especially at home. On the road, well that’s been a different story for the Vikings.
Minnesota gave up an average of a 14.3 PPG in its first three road tilts albeit against the Browns, Lions and Rams. In the remaining five, the team surrendered 26 points or more in all five. Make a note that the Steelers posted two defensive touchdowns in their 27-17 home victory over Minnesota on Oct. 25. Throwing that game out, the Vikings just haven’t had the same energy outside of Minneapolis and now they head to New Orleans, who just put up 35 points in the first half during its 45-14 win over Arizona in the Divisional Playoffs.
Just looking at those numbers makes you believe that this game could be another clear-cut ‘over’ winner on the fast surface of the Superdome. And we haven’t even talked about quarterback Brett Favre and a Minnesota team that scored 27 points or more in 14 of 17 games.
Would it be foolish to bet the ‘under’ on this game? VegasInsider.com handicapper Brian Edwards answered, “Anytime you have totals posted of 50-plus, it only takes a couple drives ending in field goals to switch the pace of the game. Last week, the Saints and Cards put up eight touchdowns and four of them were big-play scores, which included a punt return touchdown.”
“On average, teams in the NFL get about 12-14 possessions during a game. Last week, New Orleans had a dozen and it converted half of them into scores, which is incredible. What happens when they only convert four or even five drives into points, and two of those turn into three-spots rather than seven on the scoreboard?”
Edwards makes a good point about tempo and even though the 59 points scored in the Saints’ win last week went ‘over’ the closing number of 57, the ‘under’ still owns an impressive 11-5 (69%) record in games this year that had a total of 50 or higher.
Right now, a 27-24 outcome is a winning ‘under’ ticket.
Championship Trends
# The ‘over’ is on a 4-0 run in the NFC Championship, but that was preceded by a 4-0 ‘under’ streak.
# The AFC Championship has watched the ‘over’ go 7-3 the last 10 seasons. Also, the ‘over’ is 3-1 in the last four title games that had a total of 40 or less.
# The ‘over’ has gone 4-1 in the last five championship games, both AFC and NFC, played indoors.
# Peyton Manning has played in two championships, and he’s seen the total go 1-1.
# The ‘under’ has gone 2-1 in championships with an ‘over/under’ of 50 or higher.
vegasinsider.com