Total Talk - Divisional Playoffs
By Chris David
Wild Card Recap
Total bettors watched the ‘over’ produce a perfect 4-0 mark last weekend, which was highlighted by the Cardinals’ 51-45 shootout victory over the Packers in the desert. The combined 96 points easily surpassed the closing number of 48 ½ and this game was never in doubt. Arizona led 24-10 after two quarters, which helped ‘over’ players cash the first-half too. We mention that because the ‘over’ was also 4-0 in the first half for all four games last weekend. Second-half players pressing or chasing the ‘over’ watched the totals go 2-2 in the second half of the four contests.
Before we break down the Divisional Playoffs, you have to factor in the rest factor for the Chargers, Colts, Saints and Vikings. In the Week 9 edition of Total Talk, we talked about how the extra week has produced extra points. This year, teams off the bye have averaged 24.3 points per game. Despite those decent offensive numbers from clubs off a week of rest, the total has held steady at 16-16 in the 32 instances.
Even though the circumstances differ this weekend, make a note that San Diego (23), Indianapolis (42), New Orleans (48) and Minnesota (27) all put up decent numbers after their regular season break. The Vikings were the only team to see their game go ‘under’ after a bye out of the above four.
Saturday
Arizona at New Orleans (57)
If there is one matchup that’s hard to handicap from a total perspective this weekend, then this is it. The Saints (31.9 PPG) and Cardinals (25.1 PPG) have both proven that they can light up the scoreboard at anytime but this number could be a tad too high.
For starters, a lot of people are going to be looking at Arizona’s 51-point outburst last week against Green Bay. Plus, the Cardinals have seen four of their last five playoff games go ‘over’ the number too. When you combine those facts with a New Orleans juggernaut that put up 30-plus points in five of seven meaningful games played at the Superdome this season, it’s hard not to expect a high-scoring affair.
The total opened at 57, dropped a little bit, but has since hovered at the opener. When you look at the line (NO -7), the oddsmakers are expecting the Saints to earn a 32-25 decision. While that seems doable, bettors might want to pass rather than press the ‘over’ here.
If you’re looking for a reason to skip the total on this game then just focus on regular season total trends. There were 14 games that had totals of 50-plus points and the ‘under’ went 11-3 in those games. New Orleans played in 10 of those contests and the ‘under’ was 7-3 but a couple of those outcomes could’ve went either way. Arizona had two totals listed at 50, and both went ‘under’ the number.
After watching the Cardinals give up 35 in the second-half last week, the right play might be on the Saints’ team total (32).
Baltimore at Indianapolis (44)
First, let us apologize for not making note of a strong total system last week that involved Baltimore. Teams playing three straight on the road over the last five seasons, have watched the ‘over’ go 19-8-2 (72%). This year, the New York Giants and Seattle both faced the gauntlet during the regular season and both of their games went ‘over’ the number. Last week, the Ravens defeated the Patriots 33-14 and the game jumped ‘over’ the closing total of 44, which kept this streak alive once again. Including the two regular season ‘over’ tickets and last week’s ticket, the ‘over’ percentage has jumped to 22-8-2 (73%). Be sure to table this trend for next year folks!
Onto Indy, where Baltimore will now be playing its fourth straight road game on Saturday and the game is on short rest too. Should we believe that the Ray Lewis and the often-called tough Ravens are tired? Just a little bit? Not including neutral sites, the only team that has recently faced four straight on the road was Carolina during the 2005-06 season. The Panthers played their final regular season game outside of Charlotte and then three consecutive playoff games away from home. In case you forgot, the Seahawks ripped Carolina 34-14 in the NFC Championship and the combined 48 points went ‘over’ the closing number of 43.5.
The Ravens posted 33 points in last week’s victory over the Patriots, which was the eighth time this season that the team eclipsed the 30-point barrier. Now Baltimore faces an Indianapolis defense (19.2 PPG) that has been stout against opponents this season and the unit hasn’t been healthy for the most part either.
Fortunately gamblers can look at some past history on this particular matchup, including a battle played in November. The Colts nipped the Ravens 17-15 on the road in a game where both teams left a lot of points on the board. The contest featured six field goals, and two turnovers in the red zone. The Colts (299) and Ravens (256) both had their way through the air and Sunday’s conditions will be better within the confines of Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday.
Since 2005, these two teams have met five times and the ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in that span. The total is hovering around 44 points, which is the exact number that was posted in Week 11.
Sunday
Dallas at Minnesota (45.5)
Gamblers are having a tough analyzing the side on this matchup and the same can be said for the total too. Minnesota (29.4 PPG) is ranked second in the league in scoring, while Dallas (23.2 PPG) has shown the ability to light up the scoreboard as well. All the attention will be focused on quarterbacks Brett Favre and Tony Romo, but the defensive units they’ll face should garner a bit of the spotlight as well.
If you take away the two losses against the N.Y. Giants (33, 31) this year, Dallas has held every other team to 21 or less for an average of 16.6 PPG. Those numbers include the 14 points that Philadelphia was held to last Saturday in Dallas, and the Eagles’ offense (26.8 PPG) wasn’t exactly a pushover.
Minnesota’s defense only allowed 19.5 PPG this season and it led the league with 48 sacks. If the unit can apply pressure without blitzing Romo, this game could change in a hurry. The Vikings gave up 24, 23 and 31 in their first three games played at home and more than half of those points (47) came in the second-half. Since those shootouts transpired, Minnesota held its final five opponents to a total of 46 points. Four of the five went ‘under’ the number.
For what it’s worth, Favre has only played in two playoff games over the past five years and both of those went ‘over’ the number. Including last week’s win over the Eagles, Romo has played in three postseason games and the ‘under’ has produced a 2-1 ledger.
N.Y. Jets at San Diego (42.5)
The last Divisional Playoff game has the lowest total on the board and it could look like a gift to some bettors. On paper, San Diego’s offense (28.4 PPG) looks like matchup nightmares for any opponent it faces. The amount of weapons on hand for QB Philip Rivers (28 TDs, 9 INTs) is scary and the gunslinger is playing the smartest football of his career. The former N.C. State standout better be sharp this weekend, because he faces a New York defense (14.8 PPG, 252 YPG) that is ranked first in points and total yards.
Head coach Rex Ryan and his troops have been on fire and they’re playing with confidence right now. Only the Dolphins (31) and Patriots (31) were able to light up the scoreboard against the Jets and even New England’s point total was helped with a defensive touchdown. The unit does have weaknesses, two for that matter. They don’t have the best pass rush (32 sacks) and you can run the football on them, just ask the Bengals (171 yards). Will the Chargers’ Norv Turner stay disciplined and run the football or will he tell Rivers to air it out? Cincinnati let QB Carson Palmer chuck it 36 times last week and we saw how that turned out, a 24-14 Jets’ victory.
The Jets did post 24 last week on the Bengals but 17 of the 24 points were aided by big plays from TE Dustin Keller and RB Shonn Greene. If those things happen again and QB Mark Sanchez completes 80 percent (12-of-15) his passes, you could see another 20-spot posted. However, bettors should know that New York is going to run, run and run more. They know Sanchez isn’t ready to lead the team to a victory on his own shoulders. With that being said, don’t be surprised to see Sanchez (20 INTs) make mistakes, especially if the Jets get down early.
New York has seen the ‘under’ go 5-4 on the road, while San Diego has watched the ‘over’ go 6-2 at home.
We’re going to leave you with one last tidbit for this contest and it’s a good one folks. Since the Chargers put themselves back on the map in 2004, they’ve played in seven postseason games. Four of those contests were at Qualcomm Stadium and all four of those games went ‘under’ the number. In case you’re wondering, the ‘over’ went 2-1 in the road games.
Keep an eye on the Weather for this matchup, with some light rain expected in the forecast.
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