Total Talk - Divisional Playoffs
By Chris David
All four Divisional Playoff games on tap this week will feature rematches and two of the battles will have teams going head-to-head for the third time this season. Will the previous encounters matter or is current form more important? We’ll try to help you answer that and we’ll touch on some past history and a few coaching notes too. Wild Card Recap The ‘under’ posted a 3-1 record last week and all of the results were pretty clear cut. The Seahawks-Saints matchup almost cashed the ‘over’ by halftime and the remaining three games had 17 points or less posted at halftime. You can definitely make a case that were some digits left off the board in the two Sunday affairs but that’s playoff football and nobody cares about style points, just winning. And when you combine the total numbers from last week with the previous six seasons, should we be surprised that the ‘under’ now owns a 17-11 (61%) record in the Wild Card round?
Coaching Coincidence?
In last week’s Wild Card installment, we touched on Philadelphia head coach Andy Reid and his playoff tenure. In his nine postseason affairs at home, none of those games ever eclipsed 43 points and six of them combined for 37 points or less. After watching Green Bay beat Philadelphia 21-16 last Sunday, you can now make that 10 games ‘under’ 43 points. Is it a trend? Maybe it’s just an angle or perhaps a reach? That’s for you to answer but we do have three more coaches on the sidelines this week with some glaring total runs.
Bill Belichick: Since taking over for the Patriots in 2000, Belichick has coached in six divisional round games and the ‘under’ has cashed in all six. Four of those contests took place in Foxboro and New England gave up an average of 12.5 PPG.
Mike Tomlin: The youngster Tomlin is only in his fourth year as head coach of Pittsburgh but he has four playoff games on his resume. And all four of those games have gone ‘over’ the number.
Lovie Smith: Chicago hasn’t been to the playoffs since making return trips in 2005 and 2006. During those years, Smith watched the ‘over’ go 3-1 in his first four postseason tilts. The lone ‘under’ occurred in SBXLI, when Indy stopped the Bears 29-17. The total on the finale was 47 and most bettors would agree that this game should’ve jumped ‘over’ too.
Saturday
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: This game has the lowest total (37) on the board and it’s actually gone up since the opener came out. The two regular season meetings saw a combined 31 and 23 points, so another slugfest is expected here. And when you look at the defensive units of both the Steelers (14.3 PPG) and Ravens (16.3 PPG), can you really see either team putting up more than 17 on the scoreboard this weekend? The weather reports out of Western Pennsylvania are forecasting for temperatures in the thirties and there is a 70 percent chance of snow, which usually favors the offense. Prior to the two games already played going ‘under’ the number, the ‘over’ was on a 6-1-1 run in the previous eight encounters.
Green Bay at Atlanta: The Falcons edged the Packers 20-17 in Week 12 at home, and the combined 37 never threatened the closing total of 47½. This week, the number has dropped considerably to 43½ points. In the first meeting, each team had eight possessions which are much lower than normal (Usually, every offense gets anywhere from 12 to 13 touches in 60 minutes). The Falcons scored four times (2 TDs, 2 FGs) in the first encounter, while the Packers had three scores but they also fumbled on the goal line. Atlanta is averaging 25.9 PPG at home and it could be tough to get that number against a Green Bay defense (15.1 PPG) that is playing lights out lately. If you take away the 31 points the Patriots put up on the Packers in Week 15, the defense is allowing 9.8 PPG in their last nine, which includes the 16 surrendered to the Eagles last Sunday.
Sunday
Seattle at Chicago: The Seahawks have watched the ‘over’ go 12-4-1 on the season, largely due to a defense that has surrendered 26.1 PPG, the worst unit left standing in the playoffs. With that being said, Chicago should be able to put some points up on the board but can Seattle answer? The Seahawks dropped a season-high 41 on the Saints last week and they did put up 23 points on Chicago at Soldier Field in Week 5. Also, the Bears defense (17.9 PPG) is solid but they’ve given up 26, 36 and 34 in their last three home games albeit to the Eagles, Patriots and Jets. The total in the regular season meeting was 37, now the number is up to 41. Possible snow flurries looming and temperatures will be frigid for this one.
N.Y. Jets at New England: Prior to the Jets’ victory (19-17) against Indianapolis last Saturday, all eight of their road games went ‘over’ the number this season. And when you check out New England’s numbers (13-3), it’s been an ‘over’ team all season. The two regular season encounters between the pair went ‘over’ but both contests needed some help to get there. Will we see an ‘over’ sweep? The number is hovering between 44 and 45 points for Sunday and the weather isn’t expected to play a factor. New York beat the Colts last week by controlling the clock and limiting quarterback Peyton Manning and company to three possessions in the second half. Ideally, Rex Ryan and his defense will try to do the same against Tom Brady. That’s much easier said than done, especially against a Pats’ offense that has put up 31 points or more in their last eight games.
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